Tesla Motors death watch

[MrDudeMan]

They have a huge waiting list, and every one is sold before they leave the production line.

The base model S is $61K (before the tax credits) with a 3 month wait

http://www.teslamotors.com/models/design

BFD. They can't produce them fast enough, so they can't sell them fast enough. Even if they could, the vast majority of the country is not going to drop that kind of cash on a car. If they release a product in the 30-40k range, they'll do a lot better and probably start turning a consistent and continually increasing profit.

 

[MrDudeMan]

No its not.

Electricity is produced with many different methods. I know for a fact that much of my electricity is produced by a nearby nuclear reactor, which is effectively 0 emmissions.

Even if my power WERE produced by coal/fuel/natural gas, mass scale electricity generation is much more efficient than producing energy individually in every engine, even accounting for transmission losses, so there is many benefits for relying on grid electricity.

This is what I was going to say, so I'll just quote you for emphasis.

 

[Joe1987]

BFD. They can't produce them fast enough, so they can't sell them fast enough. Even if they could, the vast majority of the country is not going to drop that kind of cash on a car. If they release a product in the 30-40k range, they'll do a lot better and probably start turning a consistent and continually increasing profit.

Since its introduction, cumulative sales in North America reached 12,700 units through June 2013, with most units delivered in the U.S.[14] The Model S ranked as the top selling plug-in electric car in North America during the first quarter of 2013 with 4,900 cars sold, ahead of the Chevrolet Volt (4,421) and the Nissan Leaf (3,695).[15]

You sound angry? I guess I don't understand, I want to have Elon's babies

 

[Brovane]

The prices are absurd. Their ideas are great and their implementation is pretty great as well, but they need to bring their prices down before they'll become profitable. There simply aren't enough people who can afford their cars right now.

Musk has been straight forward for years with the Tesla Model progression. The battery pack is such a big part of the price currently they are focusing on high end of the market first where the margins are better and you can stick a battery pack that costs $20k-30k in a car and still make a profit. They will use the sales from this to iron out processes and technology and then move onto higher volume production with a lower priced car. Tesla didn't have a whole lot of capital to start with and not much experience with producing cars. So it makes perfect sense to me. A company like Nissan or GM with large capital reservers and a lot of experience in manufacturing cars can move right into high volume production on lower priced electric cars. Considering Telsa's position their market line up and price points make perfect sense to me. They are already on the edge of running profitable with just Tesla Model S production. As the Model S production line matures the profit margins will just get better for them.

 

[Spungo]

National average is about a third of that. For the rest of us an electric car is like driving a car that gets around 100mpg when gas is $4/gallon.

In addition to cheaper power, electric motors are far simpler, more reliable, and easier to maintain. I'm still amazed that internal combustion engines exist. A gas engine has tons of moving parts and they've been slowly improving over the past century. Electric motors were top notch from day 1 because they're so simple. We had electric cars 100 years ago, but they had the same problems as today. The batteries were too expensive, too heavy, too slow to charge, and range is too short.

Batteries are really the only thing holding electric cars back. I'm looking at Tesla website right now, and the cheapest Model S is $66,570. The one with a bigger battery is $73,570.

but they need to bring their prices down before they'll become profitable

They sort of can't. That's really what the car costs. The big batteries on the Model S cost $12,000 to replace. The warranty is for 8 years, so you can expect them to be replaced every 10 years maybe. This really puts a dent in resale value. Imagine seeing a nice car like a BMW 5 series and the dealer says both the engine and the transmission will need a complete overhaul after 10 years and it will cost $12,000 to fix. Would you buy that car? Most people would probably say no, and that's what will kill Tesla.

My prediction is that Tesla will be acquired by a much larger company after their stock crashes. It could be a car company like Toyota, or it could be a company like Exxon. Oil companies are really energy companies. Exxon has put considerable research into battery technology while BP was involved in solar panels for a while. BP gave up on solar after concluding that it's not profitable at this time.

 

[MrDudeMan]

You sound angry? I guess I don't understand, I want to have Elon's babies

I'm not angry at all. I want them to succeed. I think you may be confusing "anger" with "counterpoint."

Musk has been straight forward for years with the Tesla Model progression. The battery pack is such a big part of the price currently they are focusing on high end of the market first where the margins are better and you can stick a battery pack that costs $20k-30k in a car and still make a profit. They will use the sales from this to iron out processes and technology and then move onto higher volume production with a lower priced car. Tesla didn't have a whole lot of capital to start with and not much experience with producing cars. So it makes perfect sense to me. A company like Nissan or GM with large capital reservers and a lot of experience in manufacturing cars can move right into high volume production on lower priced electric cars. Considering Telsa's position their market line up and price points make perfect sense to me. They are already on the edge of running profitable with just Tesla Model S production. As the Model S production line matures the profit margins will just get better for them.

I never refuted any of this. I know why they are where they are, but that doesn't mean they can stay there for long while keeping their head above the water.

 

[OutHouse]

humm Tesla just opened Colorados first charging station.

http://www.teslamotors.com/supercha...97014fe4a7586c6da2dabe6202c&elqCampaignId=445

 

[Joe1987]

I'm not angry at all. I want them to succeed. I think you may be confusing "anger" with "counterpoint."

Ah, ok, it's all good. Even if Tesla takes a dirt nap, I think it's great that they proved the existing manufacturers mindset was wrong, and that there is a market for electric cars.

I bought a Stromer electric bike this month, it's a hoot. Thinking of getting a second one used (first one was used too, I'm cheap) for GF.

 

[OutHouse]

California is the only place in the country with the proper density of rich tree-huggers. Everywhere else the save the Earth hippie freaks are too poor to buy over-priced electric cars. Tesla has some good ideas and a makes a good product, but they're a niche company. The cars are simply too expensive for most of their target demographic to be able to buy one.

wrong. im see teslas quite often in Denver/Boulder.

 

[Red Storm]

BFD. They can't produce them fast enough, so they can't sell them fast enough. Even if they could, the vast majority of the country is not going to drop that kind of cash on a car. If they release a product in the 30-40k range, they'll do a lot better and probably start turning a consistent and continually increasing profit.

That's their plan. I believe it will be called the Model E. GM also announced they'll be making a 200 mile range all electric car. The more competition the better.

 

[zinfamous]

Electric cars: "Going Green" for the mentally retarded. Derp derp, if I plug my car into this outlet, I'm helping the environment!!

...Where does that electricity comes from? How is that electricity produced? *Proceed to beat over the head with a tire iron*

one thing that has always been true: simple minds generate simple thoughts.

exhibit A ^

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

I see at least one Tesla every day during my normal commute to and from work, and it's not always the same one. I look forward to the more affordable models.

Absolutely this. I hope to own one in a few years. Not the $70k model, not by a long shot, but I'd be willing to drop $30k if it had a solid battery life. I totally dig Tesla and I hope they flourish wildly and encourage several other car makers to get electric car technology into the 21st century

 

[uclaLabrat]

OP doesn't know what he's talking about. The stock may be overvalued but Tesla will survive. Losing money in the beginning years of a start-up manufacturing/auto company is normal.

I was about to say, looks like a standard start-up J-curve to me, they look pretty good! Massive revenues and bordering on profitable in 6 years? Excellent!

 

[zinfamous]

IIRC, they have plans to manufacture and license their battery tech to various industrial or other commercial uses, which, if it pans out, could be a huge revenue stream.

 

[Juddog]

The prices are absurd. Their ideas are great and their implementation is pretty great as well, but they need to bring their prices down before they'll become profitable. There simply aren't enough people who can afford their cars right now.

This is the same as any new technology; the first adopters pay the extra cash for the privilege to use the product before the rest of us do. An example are the 4k sets coming out that cost $25k. Tesla had to charge a lot more for the first few generations of it's products, for several reasons:

* The wealthy get to show it off, making it a wanted object for those who can't afford it, making it hip / cool
* The first few years will have a lower amount of production, and thus the first few generations will all be sold out, forcing people to get on a waiting list
* Once production vamps up, costs go down, and more become available for a cheaper price
* The wealthy buying the first few generations are essentially paying for the development of future models.

 

[Juddog]

one thing that has always been true: simple minds generate simple thoughts.

exhibit A ^

Damn you, I spot coffee on my monitor from reading that!

 

[Pray To Jesus]

Shorting a rising stock is a really dangerous gamble.

 

[actuarial]

Shorting a rising stock is a really dangerous gamble.

Agreed. Buy way out of the money puts instead. Limit your exposure.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

one thing that has always been true: simple minds generate simple thoughts.

exhibit A ^

It's like you're speaking to yourself :hmm:

Man, my post was a true tester on "Let's bring out the hippies that think they are making a difference"

 

[slag]

Tesla's are everywhere here. You can't go down a block without seeing one.

I've not seen one yet and drive around 60 miles a day.

 

[jaedaliu]

I've not seen one yet and drive around 60 miles a day.

That's because you don't live in a big city. I see a few on my daily commute around Boston (70 miles of commuting a day)

 

[kranky]

If Tesla continues at its current rate of production, it will consume the worlds supply of lithium batteries in the next few years.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news...ne-double-global-demand-for-its-battery-cells

This no more cell phones, no more laptops, no more tablets,,, nothing will be left.

However, who is to say telsa is not going to create a new type of battery to fill the worlds shortage of lithium batteries?

If Tesla can invent a better, cost-competitive battery, they would be more profitable doing that instead of making cars. Whoever pulls that off will become very, very wealthy. A lot bigger market than with cars, and in some cases price is barely a factor - capacity and size would matter more.

 

[Imported]

I've not seen one yet and drive around 60 miles a day.

Come to Palo Alto.

 

[Crono]

It's like you're speaking to yourself :hmm:

Man, my post was a true tester on "Let's bring out the hippies that think they are making a difference"

When you are spending $70,000 on a vehicle, chances are you aren't doing so because you are a hippie, it's because you want something different and premium in quality and price versus the other offerings.

Electric cars will be better for the environment when solar, wind, thermal, nuclear, etc generate 100% of our energy and when batteries aren't so messy to dispose of and/or they last far longer, but simply waiting until that time means we'll be forgoing years of potential advancement in technology right now. There isn't a good reason for us to stick with gasoline only and entirely, so I don't particularly mind it if rich people want to spend their money on a Tesla versus a gasoline powered Porsche, especially when those initial purchases are funding (in part) further investment into better batteries and electric vehicle technology.

Those people buying Tesla roadsters back in 2008 might be fools in your eyes, but the tech we have in current EV cars and 10 years down the road will in part be due to them.

If you are directly developing alternative energy technology, or doing research in a scientific field, or some measure of charitable work, good for you - I guess you have the right to laugh at "hippies".

 

[rockyct]

We're reaching a bit with these death watch threads. RIM's foundation was looking shaky when the thread was made because they couldn't change with the times. Their market share hadn't falling off yet but was declining. The Apple death watch thread is a stretch because while they aren't evolving as fast as other companies, they are still doing incredibly well and still have the "cool" image that will automatically give them a large chunk of market share.

Tesla is none of those. They have quality products (Consumer Reports rated the Model S as the highest of any car they have ever tested), they have sales, they have the support of Toyota, they have the engineering, and they have the cool factor.

They had some spots where they went close to going under, but they are as solid as they've ever been right now. They are a hot company right now, but they do have good tech and engineering to sustain them.