Tesla Motors death watch

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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
So am I actually. I was expecting to get rid of it after maybe 7-8years, but haven't felt the need to.

That's one reason I'm still curious about a $40000-45000 Tesla even if it doesn't arrive for a few years. So far I think I can wait that long with this old Prius. However, I suspect it would be more like $55000 with extended battery, etc., plus $3000 for the charging station), which is probably more than I would want to spend, and again we're getting into Lexus hybrid territory then.

Sounds like you should check the Volt out. I'm still not sold on entirely electric cars -- one minute to dump gas into tank versus minimum 1 hour to get anything resembling a decent charge.
 

nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
42,816
83
91
A) I live in a major city (fourth largest) and I have not seen one.

I feel like cities have got to be a less than ideal market.

I love the idea of a plugin, electric car... but who the fuck has a driveway in a city? it's very rare for me to drive more than 10-20 miles at a stretch (tbh, I could go without my car entirely if it wasn't for visiting friends/family who live further out in the suburbs, and just the convenience of being able to drive to big grocery stores/not be subservient to a train schedule), but my car is either parked in the street or in a municipal lot, not exactly convenient charging stops.
 
Oct 25, 2006
11,036
11
91
Sounds like you should check the Volt out. I'm still not sold on entirely electric cars -- one minute to dump gas into tank versus minimum 1 hour to get anything resembling a decent charge.


Its 20 minutes for 200km range on a Tesla.
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
62,403
8,199
126
Not gonna lie, I went and watched the keynote speech that introduced the Tesla Model "X"...and now I want one of them even more than a model S.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,518
5,340
136
I think they missed the mark on the Volt. It's a good car, but it should have been marketed as a high end car. You can't tell me a $40,000 hybrid car is economical in some way. It's basically a Cruze with a hybrid system that cost more than twice as much. In my mind, it should have been something like an electric Mustang with a 20hp generator in the back. It would have the incredible torque of an electric motor and the driving range of a normal car. Volts are sold at a huge loss because they're more complicated than a Tesla but are priced cheaper. It just doesn't make sense.

I think the Volt is the most practical hybrid. 38 EPA-mile range on the battery, then gas & go across America if you want. I think that covers 75% of American's commutes (nationwide average). And that's my gripe with the BMW i3 - similar system except that there's only a 2 or 3 gallon tank with basically a generator for an engine, so once you run out of fuel, you can't fill it back up & go because it's only topping off the battery while you drive. So the Volt is by far the most practical serial(ish) hybrid where the electric motor comes first.

But yeah, for the cost, buy a 40MPG Nissan Versa for $14k and buy a lifetime's worth of gasoline
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,518
5,340
136
Not gonna lie, I went and watched the keynote speech that introduced the Tesla Model "X"...and now I want one of them even more than a model S.

If they ever do a remake or another sequel to BTTF...:wub:
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,518
5,340
136
Its 20 minutes for 200km range on a Tesla.

*IF* you live near a Supercharger. There's only one in my whole state, and it's a 1.5 hour route trip from where I live, and I'd lose 50 miles of range on the way back just to drive home
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,518
5,340
136
I feel like cities have got to be a less than ideal market.

I love the idea of a plugin, electric car... but who the heck has a driveway in a city? it's very rare for me to drive more than 10-20 miles at a stretch (tbh, I could go without my car entirely if it wasn't for visiting friends/family who live further out in the suburbs, and just the convenience of being able to drive to big grocery stores/not be subservient to a train schedule), but my car is either parked in the street or in a municipal lot, not exactly convenient charging stops.

The New York Times suggested replacing public telephones (contracts expire in 2014) with electric car chargers in NYC, which would be a pretty great idea for charging on the street:

http://www.greencarreports.com/news...-die-could-sites-charge-electric-cars-instead

That would also be the bomb for Zipcar...car never needs to be gassed up (and hardly requires any maintenance), just have the driver park at a charging location, which could literally be on just about every street corner if they swap them out with public telephones. Pretty rad idea :thumbsup:
 
Apr 20, 2008
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Lol. This is a joke, right? "Death Watch" threads are the absolute dumbest threads possible. They arent dying off. It's only gaining momentum.

Judging by how many people lately have been needing high amperage car chargers installed in their garages for these cars, it's a boom that just getting underway.

If I ever read that you're sick or have an illness, I'm making a "Spungo Death Watch" thread. Book it!
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,820
29,571
146
I saw an Aston Martin yesterday. In Stockholm where they really can't enjoy the car for more than a few months of the year. I see Ferraris, Lamborghinis, Buggatis, and some fool even parked his $1M+ McLaren on the back street by the exit to a movie theater in the middle of the winter which blew my mind. I haven't seen a Tesla because they haven't brought them here yet and you'd need to go to Oslo to get one and then put a charger in your garage.

The people that buy these cars will surely buy a Tesla just like those in the states but money is no object for anyone who owns one. They should be charging way more until demand and supply are closer.

This got me thinking...How well would they perform in cold/freezing climates? Aren't lithium batteries notoriously awful in cold temperatures?

Or am I think of the wrong battery chemistry, or perhaps Tesla has somehow designed these batteries without such flaws?
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,820
29,571
146
Lol. This is a joke, right? "Death Watch" threads are the absolute dumbest threads possible. They arent dying off. It's only gaining momentum.

Judging by how many people lately have been needing high amperage car chargers installed in their garages for these cars, it's a boom that just getting underway.

If I ever read that you're sick or have an illness, I'm making a "Spungo Death Watch" thread. Book it!

You're about 3 pages late in calling out the OP, but carry on!

 

Eug

Lifer
Mar 11, 2000
23,753
1,311
126
I feel like cities have got to be a less than ideal market.

I love the idea of a plugin, electric car... but who the fuck has a driveway in a city? it's very rare for me to drive more than 10-20 miles at a stretch (tbh, I could go without my car entirely if it wasn't for visiting friends/family who live further out in the suburbs, and just the convenience of being able to drive to big grocery stores/not be subservient to a train schedule), but my car is either parked in the street or in a municipal lot, not exactly convenient charging stops.
What?

How about people a ton of people who can afford $70000 cars?

Plus, people in cities have invented this concept called "parkades". You should check out that invention sometime.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,518
5,340
136
This got me thinking...How well would they perform in cold/freezing climates? Aren't lithium batteries notoriously awful in cold temperatures?

Or am I think of the wrong battery chemistry, or perhaps Tesla has somehow designed these batteries without such flaws?

That is the flaw. On the existing 80-mile batteries, you lose about 50% of the range in cold temps (40F or less). So you go from 82 EPA to like 40 or 50. They've mostly figured out the hot temperature stuff, but the cold is still a big issue. It varies with the Tesla because it has a bigger battery, but the hits are still pretty bad:

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/...e-of-the-tesla-model-s-electric-car/index.htm

In addition, you battery loses max capacity over time. I read somewhere that after 3 years, you get down to like 80 or 90% of the original life. Definitely makes leasing more attractive.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106

Pulsar

Diamond Member
Mar 3, 2003
5,225
306
126
Tesla had an awesome idea; they basically got savagely attacked by the rest of the auto industry when they realized what a threat they posed.

I don't think that's the case. In fact I don't think the larger automotive companies give 2 craps about Tesla. They might be interested in snapping up the remains of the company though. There are only so many people who are interested in dumping the amount of money required for a Tesla. It's a novelty for rich folk.

When was the last successful car company started in the US? Even long-standing well capitalized companies that are competive in the automotive field have a bad year and are suddenly in deep crap.

The automotive market is one of, if not THE most competitive market in the world. The only other two I think come close are the cellphone market and the computer market: but neither of those are manufactured in the US. The design firms are here but all the manufacture happens overseas.

I think people look at automobiles and don't realize how difficult it is to create a car that people want at a price they can afford. The economies of scale that are required to be profitable are staggering.
 

BoberFett

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
37,563
9
81
This got me thinking...How well would they perform in cold/freezing climates? Aren't lithium batteries notoriously awful in cold temperatures?

Or am I think of the wrong battery chemistry, or perhaps Tesla has somehow designed these batteries without such flaws?

Batteries in general hate cold weather, not only do they not last as long but it shortens their life spans meaning more frequent expensive changes. Not to mention heating a car in winter is an easy thing with combustion engines.

Electric cars will definitely be a niche item in colder climates, as they'll be mostly a summer driver. I've only seen one Tesla here in Minneapolis. I remember clearly driving one lane over and a couple cars behind it, wondering what the heck kind of car it was. It wasn't until I got closer that I saw the T logo.
 

rockyct

Diamond Member
Jun 23, 2001
6,656
32
91
Lol. This is a joke, right? "Death Watch" threads are the absolute dumbest threads possible. They arent dying off. It's only gaining momentum.

Judging by how many people lately have been needing high amperage car chargers installed in their garages for these cars, it's a boom that just getting underway.

If I ever read that you're sick or have an illness, I'm making a "Spungo Death Watch" thread. Book it!
This thread rightly turned into the Tesla Circle Jerk Thread to be fair despite the OP's intentions. The RIM Death Watch thread was so successful that there were going to be others trying to catch the next falling star. The Apple one is just as stupid.

My dad does love his Leaf though. Our local power company put a free 220V charger in his garage when he got it so it made sense for him. He kept his old 2003 Infiniti if he needs to go out of town because it only has 110k miles on it since his commute is so short (25 miles round trip). He basically is the perfect person for a non-Tesla electric car. Short commute, garage for a 220V charger, mild climate (San Diego), and a spare car for long trips.

Batteries in general hate cold weather, not only do they not last as long but it shortens their life spans meaning more frequent expensive changes. Not to mention heating a car in winter is an easy thing with combustion engines.

Electric cars will definitely be a niche item in colder climates, as they'll be mostly a summer driver. I've only seen one Tesla here in Minneapolis. I remember clearly driving one lane over and a couple cars behind it, wondering what the heck kind of car it was. It wasn't until I got closer that I saw the T logo.
Yeah, my dad's Leaf gets about 75 miles but that's in San Diego. It rarely gets colder than 50F and it rarely gets hotter than 90F. Our family was in Vancouver a few months back and in one day traveling the city, I saw three Teslas. I know it doesn't get crazy cold there but it did surprise me. I guess it's just because of how wealthy the city is and how dirt cheap the power is.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,491
1,683
136
That is the flaw. On the existing 80-mile batteries, you lose about 50% of the range in cold temps (40F or less). So you go from 82 EPA to like 40 or 50. They've mostly figured out the hot temperature stuff, but the cold is still a big issue. It varies with the Tesla because it has a bigger battery, but the hits are still pretty bad:

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/...e-of-the-tesla-model-s-electric-car/index.htm

In addition, you battery loses max capacity over time. I read somewhere that after 3 years, you get down to like 80 or 90% of the original life. Definitely makes leasing more attractive.

Part of the issue is that in the article the author left the car not plugged in over night in cold temperatures which can sap the battery charge. Not a usual condition the car would be exposed to since most people would plug it in overnight.

This I would consider a more interesting cold weather test.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZ5PqPeOPT0
 

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
14,278
89
91
They aren't going to revolutionize transportation, like someone said, a Nissan Versa and a lifetime supply of gasoline would be cheaper. Fossil fuels are king and always will be.

It doesn't matter how expensive oil becomes, since battery tech relies on the fossil fuel economy and will always be a less efficient derivative thereof.
 

Crono

Lifer
Aug 8, 2001
23,720
1,501
136
They aren't going to revolutionize transportation, like someone said, a Nissan Versa and a lifetime supply of gasoline would be cheaper. Fossil fuels are king and always will be.

It doesn't matter how expensive oil becomes, since battery tech relies on the fossil fuel economy and will always be a less efficient derivative thereof.

If always means for two to five decades more, yes. Electricity doesn't need to come from the burning of fossil fuels, but it does dominate transportation and energy production until all the other alternative sources - including nuclear - starting taking the lion's share away from coal, natural gas, and oil.

Solar is the most promising long term considering how "clean" it is if we can get better battery technology and continue to develop more efficient cells. At least for personal home electricity generation purposes.
 

SSSnail

Lifer
Nov 29, 2006
17,461
82
86
Damn spungo, how much money have you lost shorting TLSA?

Only a bitter short would put this much efforts into it. Let it go dude.
 

Joe1987

Senior member
Jul 20, 2013
482
0
0
Damn spungo, how much money have you lost shorting TLSA?

Only a bitter short would put this much efforts into it. Let it go dude.

In his defense, it looked like a no brainer to short. The numbers don't work, but then again, neither do Amazon's.

I do think it's going to take a hit sooner or later, when the hedge funds decide to kill it.
 

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
14,278
89
91
You never short that much momentum. Most people who short this type of trend and are worth their salt should know to give the euphoria well deserved respect. You wait for the dumb money shorts to lose their will, when there are barely any shorts left, is when you place your short.

:awe:

When people short the crap out of a rising momentum stock like TSLA it just means it'll short squeeze and go higher. Thats how I think anyway. I don't know anything about trading but just extrapolating.
 
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