Tesla "going up in smoke"? Not bloody likely, almost all their losses have recovered in weekend trading.
Tesla's inside transactions are interesting. Elon Musk is literally the only person buying.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=TSLA
1 guy bought more shares - Elon Musk
18 people sold shares
Valuation is not always as simple as looking at YTD numbers.
I'm bumping this one because I'm excited to share something. I was playing with numbers to find a good all-around way to value any stock for any company because different types of stock often have different methods of valuation. Things like banks and insurance companies are often valued by free cash flow, some companies like google or tesla are valued by equity growth since they don't pay dividends, and things like utility companies or resource trusts are often valued by dividends. Why not combine all of these factors into one simple equation to describe every way a company grows?
-year to date equity growth
-year to date dividends
-year to date share repurchasing (reducing the number of shares in circulation)
-divide by the number of common shares
-multiply by 10 (10 is a magic number in finance. PE ratio of 10 is good, 10x free cash flow is good, ROE to price to book of 10 is good, etc).
-normalize to 1 year
So let's look at Tesla's numbers here
Equity at end of Q2 2013: 629.43M
Equity at end of Q4 2012: 124.70M
Dividends this year: 0
Share dilution/concentration: -590.41M
Common shares at end of Q2 2013: 121.43M
Normalize to 1 year: multiply by 2 because the end of Q2 is half the year
All of this together:
(2)(10)(629.43-124.70+0-590.43)/(121.43) = -$14.11 (totally worthless this year so far)
What's neat is when this calculation is close to the current trading price of a stock and it agrees with overall market sentiment. Example: HP. Many people hate this company. I hate their products, I hate their drivers, I hate their computers. They've abandoned their computer division, I think they were taken off the Dow 30, and I remember saying a few months ago that they hit a 5 year low. Does Mr Market's price of this stock reflect what the stock is actually worth? data.
value = (4/3)(10)(24,603.00-22,436.00+821.00+774.00)/(1,929.00)
value = $26.00/share
current price = $22.80 (88% of what it's worth)
That does sound about right. The stock does deserve to be at a low, but it might be undervalued because the forward looking PE ratio is about 6, which is good. They suck now, but they'll be good next year, possibly.
The numbers also seem to agree with the overall feeling that the stock market is in a gigantic bubble at this time. People who don't know anything about investing tend to buy index funds because they're a safe and effective way to invest, so the bubble is most clearly seen in the biggest companies, ones listed on the Dow 30. McDonalds is currently priced at 235% of what it's worth (according to me). Intel is trading at 112% of what it's worth. 3M is priced at 199% of what it's worth. American Express is at 183%. JP Morgan is at 268%.
A part of me thinks that calculating a negative number means it would be safe to short a stock once the down trend begins, but I'll need to test that before writing it in stone. Of course, there will always be exceptions. Every indicator imaginable says Sears is a dead man walking, but the secret is that Sears is being converted from a retail company to an insurance company. This is why they are selling real estate instead of investing in stores. It sounds weird, but this has happened before. Warren Buffet's company, Berkshire Hathaway, was a textile company before he turned it into an insurance company. Sears could be the next Berkshire. Valuation is not always as simple as looking at YTD numbers.
-Pets.comI'm not sure if you intended this to be an insightful statement, since stock prices are largely based on the firm's future potential.
Because having a good product means a company is profitable, right?Parked next to a Tesla tonight. Gorgegous vehicle. The parking lot had a parking spot for electric vehicles only and the Tesla was charging up.
Because having a good product means a company is profitable, right?
Parked next to a Tesla tonight. Gorgegous vehicle.
Also a giant piece of overpriced shit that's not too useful in the real world. There's a reason nobody is buying them. Wait, no, there are hundreds of reasons nobody is buying them. It doesn't matter how pretty you make a car, at the end of the day it's a car, not a piece of art. It's got to work like a car and do all the things people want a car to do. Tesla doesn't.
Have you driven one? If you're not going on 300 mile road trips it does everything I'd need in a car for daily usage.
Also a giant piece of overpriced shit that's not too useful in the real world. There's a reason nobody is buying them. Wait, no, there are hundreds of reasons nobody is buying them. It doesn't matter how pretty you make a car, at the end of the day it's a car, not a piece of art. It's got to work like a car and do all the things people want a car to do. Tesla doesn't.
Have you driven one? Nobody is getting anywhere near that range in the real world. You might hit 270 on a test track at a constant 55 with no acceleration, braking or heat/AC usage. You have a passenger? Range drops. Golf clubs or luggage in the trunk? Range drops. A hill? Range drops. Stop and go freeway traffic? Range drops. Battery more than 20 minutes old? Range drops. And god help you if you want to use the radio.
In the real world owners of pure electric cars live in a world of stress where they're constantly staring at their battery gauge wondering if they can go 10 miles out of their way to grab an ice cream cone and still make it home. They need to grab maps and calculators to figure out whether they can head into the city to see a baseball game without being stranded. They need to rent cars for a getaway weekend because a Tesla can't go from LA to Napa Valley. While MOST people drive 30 miles or less MOST of the time most need to go 200 miles or more sometimes. Tesla owners can't do it worry free and if they have 3 passengers and a less than ideal route they can't even consider doing it at all.
In this thread.
people talking about things they know nothing about.
Nobody is buying them? They can't make enough to satisfy their waiting list
Also a giant piece of overpriced shit that's not too useful in the real world. There's a reason nobody is buying them. Wait, no, there are hundreds of reasons nobody is buying them. It doesn't matter how pretty you make a car, at the end of the day it's a car, not a piece of art. It's got to work like a car and do all the things people want a car to do. Tesla doesn't.
Nobody is buying them? They can't make enough to satisfy their waiting list, please educate yourself.
Their waiting list is long because their production sucks. Huge problems with build quality.
Another ignorant post, how many people do you know that drive 200+ miles a day? If you're going to come up with reasons to dislike the vehicle, come up with some real ones. And I bet most folks that own a Tesla, own another vehicle also that may be used for long distances or have larger seating/cargo capacity. Are you the OP's brother?
And the brutal reality is a rental car for the weekend isn't a problem for Tesla owners or that they have a second car.
Seriously, do you really think someone who can buy an $80K dollar car finds either of these solutions difficult or problematic?
Also, if you're wealthy enough to buy a Tesla, you're going to fly and rent a car.
The Model S isn't a car for people without resources, and a mid range car for the masses is workable too, you just need to be flexible and creative.
Have you driven one? Nobody is getting anywhere near that range in the real world. You might hit 270 on a test track at a constant 55 with no acceleration, braking or heat/AC usage. You have a passenger? Range drops. Golf clubs or luggage in the trunk? Range drops. A hill? Range drops. Stop and go freeway traffic? Range drops. Battery more than 20 minutes old? Range drops. And god help you if you want to use the radio.
In the real world owners of pure electric cars live in a world of stress where they're constantly staring at their battery gauge wondering if they can go 10 miles out of their way to grab an ice cream cone and still make it home. They need to grab maps and calculators to figure out whether they can head into the city to see a baseball game without being stranded. They need to rent cars for a getaway weekend because a Tesla can't go from LA to Napa Valley. While MOST people drive 30 miles or less MOST of the time most need to go 200 miles or more sometimes. Tesla owners can't do it worry free and if they have 3 passengers and a less than ideal route they can't even consider doing it at all.
The fact that you don't drive 200 miles in a day is meaningless, you apparently don't ever get out of your mommies basement. I drive 200 miles in a day at least a dozen times a year. Christ, 200 miles is 90 minutes one direction and 90 minutes back. I have a friend in Rhode Island, I visit him to play golf at his club a few times a year. That's about 110 miles one way, not a biggie in a REAL car, impossible in a Tesla, any traffic on I-95 or a 3rd/4th for the golf and I couldn't make it. While I work in Connecticut my office is in New Jersey about 130 miles away. I only do 2 or 3 meetings there a year, couldn't even consider it in a Tesla. 3 friends to a Giants game? I go at least once a year, maybe a couple more for the Knicks/Rangers in NYC or the Devils in Jersey. Don't even have to stop for a gas in a car, can't do it at all in a Tesla.
Live in Atlanta, want to drive the kids down to Disneyworld for a vacation? Impossible in a Tesla, it dies halfway there.
LA to Napa? Nope, not even close in a Tesla.
Houston to Dallas? Nope
San Francisco to Seattle? You'll be stopping to charge FOUR times.
Philadelphia to Washington DC? Sure, but you better like DC because you're not making it back home.
Orlando to Miami? Maybe, if the battery is new, you don't use A/C and you don't hit traffic, otherwise even that simple trip is impossible.
Real world trips that real people do routinely all the time. Can't do 'em in a Tesla. Deal with it. Maybe someday electric cars will be good enough to replace normal cars. But they're damn sure not there yet and the Tesla isn't close. It's fine a majority of the time for the majority of drivers. But most people CAN'T own a Tesla and use it every day for every situations because almost everyone faces longer trips occasionally.