Yeah, they got me. Damn marketers... they know what they're doing. Well I've not purchased yet but once I verify my funds are adequate I will.
I enjoyed HL2 singleplayer, so I def want to play Ep1 and Ep2 (trailers have looked excellent). And I wouldn't play Ep2 without Ep1 first, so it's just HL2 that I'd be paying extra for. And Portal is just a bonus. I expect to see/do some pretty interesting and unique things with it.
Even if hypothetically, absolute best case that they had kept the Black Box (TF2, Ep2, Portal) and sold it for $30, then I bought Ep1 for $10, I'd still only save $5 compared to the Orange Box. No matter how stupid I think it is to buy the game again, and be pissed about them not being more considerate to HL2 owners, no matter how I think about it, it is a damn fine deal. If TF2 renews my addiction like I was with the original TF for quake, it'd be worth $45 alone.
Maybe I can off HL2 to someone for $5 or $10. Except I'd want to get the money in hand first, cause the person would probably get a Steam message like "You've just received a free gift: Half-life 2" and then be like "you sob... charging me for a free game!"
I am kind of pissed at Valve for other reasons like how damn long this has taken. I really think it has to do with the launch on 360 and PS3 at the same time. Valve is probably very talented (and they made excellent updates to the Source engine like good multicore support) but surely porting to 360 and moreso to the PS3 is a big part of the delay. I also think it is odd that they don't include or sell separately, CS:S, which the Halo fanboys probably hate anyway but you gotta admit that even console gamers know about Counterstrike and probably wouldn't mind playing it on Live.