Brightcandle([url said:
http://alienbabeltech.com/abt/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=31776&start=10#p97385)[/url]] Lets say that Mantle does what it says on the tin - it improves performance significantly enough that its popular and that games developers want to use it, a big if. Were that the case it would be highly tied to the current generation, design and capabilities of today's graphics cards. Future designs would need to maintain a very low level API and hence couldn't change their behaviour much for fear of breaking old games. Porting a game to new hardware would be a considerable exercise. This would only work if GPUs had stopped evolving the sort of features they have and their general capabilities.
So in many ways Mantle does to PC graphics cards what consoles do to PC hardware. They fix it to a particular moment in time and with the low level access extend the life of the fixed hardware platform a decent time period. But what it does not do is support a strong future with multiple vendors (of which AMD is currently the smallest behind Intel and NVidia dependent on market) nor the performance gains those bring. Whatever DirectX might cost today in performance in 2 years time and one node change will complete destroy the previous generation of cards and likely wipe out whatever minimal benefit Mantle might have brought. Maybe Mantle will support one extra generation of cards, but probably not two generations. So in 4 years time it would be obsolete or gaining cruft to try and support different cards, then the developers are supporting both and so on. Its not a sustainable model to not abstract the hardware away unless the hardware is very stable in its capabilities.
A lot hinges on what they mean by low level and how the features of the card are exposed. Its either possible for NVidia to write a driver for it and thus it will also support future AMD architecture or it isn't. If it isn't possible to support Intel/NVidia hardware then its very likely future AMD hardware will be limited by it as well. In reality most games don't currently use enough draw calls for the benefits to really show through. The more exciting thing is the multithreaded support, but we need to see it to understand its limitations and we can't currently see it. Either way DirectX may very well be able to adopt more multithreading, seems likely it will, but also support an abstraction that scales with hardware.
A new API with a modern driver interface supporting true multithreaded access could really take off, a truly low level API is a really bad idea for the PC market in general, it assumes cards are not going to improve and I don't think that is very likely.
Let's say that it's like PhysX drivers for Nvidia's CUDA architecture. CUDA provides a low-level API as well. Because there was PhysX for some games a few years ago doesn't mean that Nvidia cards are not going to improve. Even if 50% of games out there started supporting PhysX from 2 years ago, Nvidia would still be able to move on to faster CUDA-based architectures.
All we know for now is that Mantle is a GCN-based API. My bet is that AMD could still move on to faster GCN-based architectures, just like NV with their CUDA cores from GT200 to GF100 to GK100 to GM100 and so on... GCN is a rather new, forward-looking flexible uarch altogether, just like CUDA was for NV, it seems.
Nevertheless, for 4-5 years down the road, AMD most likely does not have enough R&D to forfeit GCN for yet another completely new uarch altogether, after ditching VLIW5/4 that didn't last as long as CUDA.
RE: "So in many ways Mantle does to PC graphics cards what consoles do to PC hardware."
Well, you say that consoles have been doing this to PC hardware (including graphics cards)? Well - there are next-gen consoles too, mantle or not, that will be around for a while too. Xbox360 and PS3 allowed for vastly greater draw calls than PC-based DirectX allow for, still today - several years after the release of such consoles. So, in a way, something else has to be blamed.