The anti-crypto thread

[BFG10K]

Great news, crypto's collapsing across the board: https://www.techpowerup.com/282380/...ions-in-less-than-24-hours-did-the-bubble-pop

Also China's banned crypto, though individuals can still have it: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-financial-payment-bodies-barred-122712260.html

The sooner this cancerous parasite is wiped out, the better.

 

[Hitman928]

This is a real example, I'm not making this up. The guy has a well-known YouTube channel (in this collectable niche), he makes money by buying large volume of product wholesale, breaking it down, and selling it off to hundreds or thousands of patrons in order sizes around a few hundred dollars. There is absolutely no need for buyer protection, this guy is not going to lose his name, his business, his empire trying to stiff you over a few hundred dollars. His buyers themselves are semi-vetted as he only sells to his Patreon subscribers, they know what they are getting, they don't need Paypal hand-holding. Paypal provides almost no value in this transaction, it's a perfect application of cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin transaction fees are not cheap. If their only buying things worth a couple hundred dollars, they are spending more in BTC fees than going with Paypal. . .

 

[Ninjak]

Bitcoin transaction fees are not cheap. If their only buying things worth a couple hundred dollars, they are spending more in BTC fees than going with Paypal. . .

Well BTC blockchain cost is < $3 these days so that's not true, but who knows what the cost will be a week from now if things get crazy. He runs everything through his Coinbase account so he accepts anything Coinbase will accept (I think), lastest info is that BTC, ETH, ADA, ALGO, COMP, AMP, LTC are all used commonly by the Patrons. I guess the most useful crypto currency would have a low transaction cost and low volatility. Interesting to see this used for actual payments and not just speculation!

 

[Hitman928]

Well BTC blockchain cost is < $3 these days so that's not true, but who knows what the cost will be a week from now if things get crazy. He runs everything through his Coinbase account so he accepts anything Coinbase will accept (I think), lastest info is that BTC, ETH, ADA, ALGO, COMP, AMP, LTC are all used commonly by the Patrons. I guess the most useful crypto currency would have a low transaction cost and low volatility. Interesting to see this used for actual payments and not just speculation!

I just checked and you are correct. I was going off of memory from about 6 months ago but the fees have fallen significantly (after a huge spike) since then. It is obviously not a stable thing though but for now, it would be cheaper when talking sales in the hundreds of dollars range.

 

[blckgrffn]

This is a real example, I'm not making this up. The guy has a well-known YouTube channel (in this collectable niche), he makes money by buying large volume of product wholesale, breaking it down, and selling it off to hundreds or thousands of patrons in order sizes around a few hundred dollars. There is absolutely no need for buyer protection, this guy is not going to lose his name, his business, his empire trying to stiff you over a few hundred dollars. His buyers themselves are semi-vetted as he only sells to his Patreon subscribers, they know what they are getting, they don't need Paypal hand-holding. Paypal provides almost no value in this transaction, it's a perfect application of cryptocurrency.

PayPal provides the value of a trusted third party that shakes the hands of all the payment networks (Visa, etc) all the bank account action and provides an invoice and tracking interface that allows for integration into any shopping cart. They also have a huuuuuge legacy user base that doesn’t have to sign up for a new account and connect their details to it to make it work.

To say that has (almost) no value is disingenuous. To say it is worth 3% and like $0.24 per transaction? Hard to know since competition is about zero.

Crypto is non trivial for end users. Likely many of them will use a service like Cashapp that doesn’t allow for the lowest fees (Lightning please) or laughably PayPal but your basically passing unknown/potentially even higher fees into your customer and it’s just a price increase.

It’s still no DeFi because almost no people are there right now. People still want a payment app and provider they can “trust”. It’s just changing how the fees happen and injecting a big load of uncertainty on them.

It’d be safer and more transparent to customers IMO to just prices the .6% or so that PP raised their rates and move on.

Revisit it in the future when DeFi is more mature.

My $.02. Customers trust in their transactions is not free.

 

[Magic Carpet]

Revisit it in the future when DeFi is more mature.

'Investors must be vigilant and cautious' following the massive $600 million DeFi hack, experts say

Though the hackers have returned a portion of the stolen funds, experts say investors should understand the risks of DeFi, or decentralized finance.

www.cnbc.com

There MUST be a LEGAL way to deal with stolen crypto. Luckily, these hackers have agreed to cooperate. Technology must not prevail over common sense. Set in stone.

 

[DrMrLordX]

I wrote two paragraphs, one point per paragraph:

1. Fixed currency supply does not limit the need for growth. I hope it is quite obvious that neither population growth or human desire for more wealth are caused by inflation. More (greedy) humans = more growth.
2. Bitcoin is not a deflationary currency, not when it shares market cap with multiple other coins which continuously dilute it's value. New coins gain popularity every year, and to make matters worse some of them are inflationary by design. The fact that overprinted fiat may act as a catalyst for this reaction is only the cherry on top of a much bigger issue. Imagine US would have a fixed supply of dollars... but also a few other alternative currencies

So my "salient point" was that everything VirtualLarry wrote is false, except for the fact that there is indeed a "Rich Dad Radio Show" and the guest did manage to convince Larry that a deflationary currency would make the world a better place. I like the idea behind a decentralized currency, I like the idea of a deflationary currency (or one with a predictable and known increase in supply), I'm even partially sold on the idea that mining is a necessary intermediary step to achieve this, but it takes some special kind of mental gymnastics to ignore obvious truths about the human kind and blame unsustainable growth on inflationary money supply.

I could go on but the doorbell rang, gotta' let that sink in.

See I think we agree more than you might know. I thought it was funny (and ironic) that Larry was essentially promoting fixed-volume currencies (like BTC) as an alternative to inflation-prone fiat when inflation-prone fiat is pumping Bitcoin prices. It was also USDT for awhile, but that's another story in-and-of itself. And yes the idea that we need to aim for a zero-sum-growth society with a fixed currency supply is a bit idiotic. And that's why I thought you were mocking him (or at least what he said).

I'm not sure I agree intrinsically that BTC is inflationary (even if it is being stoked by inflationary fiat). It may share market cap with unrestricted tokens, but that's like saying a gold-backed dollar would be subject to inflationary forces associated with fiat simply because it shares market cap on forex trading platforms with EUR (for example).

Bitcoin transaction fees are not cheap. If their only buying things worth a couple hundred dollars, they are spending more in BTC fees than going with Paypal. . .

By this point, I do not think anyone outside of LN evangelists take BTC seriously as a method of resolving debts or otherwise carrying out ecommerce.

 

[thilanliyan]

The US government will regulate it eventually and tax it properly.

It's already taxed...its not the wild west anymore.

 

[DrMrLordX]

It's already taxed...its not the wild west anymore.

I think it's more tax evasion that's an (alleged) issue. All the major exchanges are turning over trade data to the IRS now, but for whatever reason there's the suspicion that the IRS is losing out on a lot of money from untaxed trades. It's unclear on which taxable events are going unreported. Are they token->fiat swaps on major exchanges? Token->token swaps in decentralized swap contracts (which are taxable events)? It's hard to say. Sometimes the gub'ment seems to know what's going on, and at other times, they don't. Going after txn verifiers might be easier than hitting day traders using foreign exchanges via VPNs and/or swap contracts, but I would assume that compliance with that group (miners) is already pretty high. The IRS has already had tax guidance on mining proceeds since 2014, and enforcement ramped up a few years ago.

 

[ozzy702]

I think it's more tax evasion that's an (alleged) issue. All the major exchanges are turning over trade data to the IRS now, but for whatever reason there's the suspicion that the IRS is losing out on a lot of money from untaxed trades. It's unclear on which taxable events are going unreported. Are they token->fiat swaps on major exchanges? Token->token swaps in decentralized swap contracts (which are taxable events)? It's hard to say. Sometimes the gub'ment seems to know what's going on, and at other times, they don't. Going after txn verifiers might be easier than hitting day traders using foreign exchanges via VPNs and/or swap contracts, but I would assume that compliance with that group (miners) is already pretty high. The IRS has already had tax guidance on mining proceeds since 2014, and enforcement ramped up a few years ago.

It's just being used as a way for politicians to pretend they're going to fund the infrastructure bill. Yes, there's tax evasion, but no more than in any other industry. Public ledgers and centralized exchanges make it extremely easy to find tax cheats, unlike cash based businesses. Also why the Fed wants to go CBDC, which gives 100% centralized control of money to government instead of the 100 different custodians of digital dollars currently.

Daddy government/IRS can then do whatever they want. 100% visibility of transactions without needing to get a warrant, freeze or seize funds, deny purchases to blacklisted companies/individuals. 100% control is what governments have always wanted, CBDC will be the gateway to that.

 

[Magic Carpet]

I thought, that was hilarious 😂

 

[jpiniero]

FWIW nVidia said they only made $266M from CMP sales. They had forecast $400M. And for next quarter they aren't expecting much from CMP. Guessing the big miners are just buying gaming cards as "gaming" sales were up 89% to 3.06B.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

FWIW nVidia said they only made $266M from CMP sales. They had forecast $400M. And for next quarter they aren't expecting much from CMP. Guessing the big miners are just buying gaming cards as "gaming" sales were up 89% to 3.06B.

-Its weird how basically everyone predicted this except for NV for some bizarre reason.

Card that is useless outside mining or card that mines and retains it's resale value after mining tanks? Hmmm which should I buy?

Should just source silicon from every possible fab and flood the market with it at this point, and just clench for the inevitable coin crash and card selloff.

AMD should be pumping out as many 580's as they can from gloflo getting them to market, same with NV and 2060's. Stuff that doesn't compete on performance with their current gen stuff but will still move for a dollar given market conditions. So long as it doesn't rob components from newer cards, of course.

 

[aigomorla]

Should just source silicon from every possible source and flood the marlet with it at this point, and just clench for the inevitable coin crash and card selloff

the thing is i bet by the time the coin crash happens, nvidia will be on 4000 series, hence gamers will still buy them as there are a lot of people who upgrade mid gen cards each year.

Like the 1070 -> 2070 > 3070 <--- im calling this vaporware.... although i did have my hands on one.

 

[VirtualLarry]

What if there isn't a "real" "coin crash" anymore? Everything keeps (slowly, but steadily) "mooning"? What then?

 

[fleshconsumed]

ETH PoS will make video card mining obsolete just like ASIC mining made bitcoin video card mining obsolete. The end is coming.

 

[jpiniero]

-Its weird how basically everyone predicted this except for NV for some bizarre reason.

Card that is useless outside mining or card that mines and retains it's resale value after mining tanks? Hmmm which should I buy?

I think they were hoping LHR would make CMP more valuable to get more money out of miners. Didn't work out. Now that I thought about it I am wondering what they are going to do with all the Turing chips they fabbed with the intention of them being sold as CMP.

 

[DisarmedDespot]

What if there isn't a "real" "coin crash" anymore? Everything keeps (slowly, but steadily) "mooning"? What then?

That depends on what you mean by 'slow and steady.' If you mean like a very small yet stable amount of deflation (like 2% a year), that might be the best thing that could possibly happen for crypto adoption as it would mean people might actually use the damn things instead of just trying to hop onto whatever flavor of the month coin is being hyped and waiting for it to magically shoot up in price. At the same time it's also a chicken and egg situation. Until there's actual widespread uses for it besides speculation and ransomware, the price is gonna swing wildly. We're also very far from stability. Remember, it was only a few weeks ago that Bitcoin tanked by 50%.

ETH PoS will make video card mining obsolete just like ASIC mining made bitcoin video card mining obsolete. The end is coming.

Maybe. It depends on how decisive the switch to PoS is. IIRC Buterin recently said the switch of everything over to the new PoS chain could take years. Even if that's not the case I wouldn't be surprised if all those warehouses of GPUs out in Turkmenistan or wherever they went after China cracked down end up mining either another PoW coin or if the old PoW eth fork lives on for at least some time like eth classic did.

 

[aigomorla]

What if there isn't a "real" "coin crash" anymore? Everything keeps (slowly, but steadily) "mooning"? What then?

Ouroboros - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Only its the miners is the head, and the tail is the gpu.
It will go on forever, as someone stated.
More GPU's made will still be bought as to miners it equals increased payout, and its a never ending path.

Until the actual point of return investment is so far stretched, where it makes no more sense to add more GPU's or your limit to add more GPU's has been met, it will trail off in a log x function.

ETH PoS will make video card mining obsolete just like ASIC mining made bitcoin video card mining obsolete. The end is coming.

Thats what they said about bitcoin, and Etherium poped out.

Whats to say RavenCoin or some other ALT coin wont pick up after ETH?
Also remember, without miners, there is no coin.
If something isn't profitable, then people won't mine and no coin will be generated.
If people mine, and it becomes popular.. well... ETH and LTC wouldn't be at its value today.

Until there is a quiet power efficient ASCIC, people will always mine on a GPU if possible.
And asking for above is like asking for a fuel efficient hypercar. Not counting electric the RIMAC.

 

[fleshconsumed]

Thats what they said about bitcoin, and Etherium poped out.

Whats to say RavenCoin or some other ALT coin wont pick up after ETH?
Also remember, without miners, there is no coin.
If something isn't profitable, then people won't mine and no coin will be generated.
If people mine, and it becomes popular.. well... ETH and LTC wouldn't be at its value today.

Until there is a quiet power efficient ASCIC, people will always mine on a GPU if possible.
And asking for above is like asking for a fuel efficient hypercar. Not counting electric the RIMAC.

Because the vast vast majority of video card hash power is directed at ETH. If all of that hash power was suddenly directed at ETC or some other ancient PoW coin it would crash profitability to near zero. PoW is on its way out. ETH is the last great PoW holdout. Once it goes PoS it's game over for video card mining. None of the newest most promising blockchains utilize PoW.

 

[beginner99]

So long as it doesn't rob components from newer cards, of course.

I think a core problem of the chip shortage is also ABF substrate shortage (and not only manufacturing of 7nm dies). hence making older 12nm cards don't really solve the issue, no they make it worse as less substrate for new stuff would be available.

 

[ozzy702]

Maybe. It depends on how decisive the switch to PoS is. IIRC Buterin recently said the switch of everything over to the new PoS chain could take years. Even if that's not the case I wouldn't be surprised if all those warehouses of GPUs out in Turkmenistan or wherever they went after China cracked down end up mining either another PoW coin or if the old PoW eth fork lives on for at least some time like eth classic did.

The merge to PoS has been prioritized and will happen by end of Q1 22'. Some hashpower will of course head to other PoW coins like ravencoin but none of them have the marketcap to support the 100x increase that all of ETH's current mining has. Equilibrium will be met quickly and I have a feeling the market will be flooded with GPUs for a good year after the merge in a way we've never seen before.

 

[Glo.]

What if there isn't a "real" "coin crash" anymore? Everything keeps (slowly, but steadily) "mooning"? What then?

Every market cycle has 5 impulsive waves of the price action. Three impulsive waves to the upside, and two corrective waves. BTC experienced fso far 3 waves of the cycle, Alts only two, on USDT pairs, and on BTC pairs - most of them are still within last cycle, and before even the first impulsive wave to the upside.

XRP is the coin that has experienced the beginning of its first impulsive wave to the upside, just recently. And its one of the majors!

There will be correction(s). Always are.

 

[Mopetar]

ETH PoS will make video card mining obsolete just like ASIC mining made bitcoin video card mining obsolete. The end is coming.

ETH PoS has been happening long enough now that it ought to make you question why the transition occurring in the next X months is somehow more likely than the last time someone said it would happen in that same time frame.

It'll probably get there eventually, much later than anyone thought, but it's a bit like a company going out of business. They're done, but the factory is still there along with all of the workers that know the business. They're not just going to vanish with Etherium. Some will probably want to create a fork at the very least.

The other problem is that there are far too many GPUs tied up in mining to be absorbed by gamers. There is probably going to be a massive sell-off at some point due to the uncertainty and the high prices for selling being too hard to resist and that can create a self-reinforcing panic.

However as the GPU prices crater eventually someone will run the numbers and realize they can just mine something else. It's less profitable than ETH was, but they'll still make more in a month or two than just dumping their card, which they can always still do later.

There's no third biggest coin right behind BTC or ETH but that hardly matters if there's enough alternatives to absorb what doesn't get fire sold. Eventually one of those starts to emerge as the next best thing and the usual cryptocurrency craze commences and the cycle begins anew.

 

[Fritzo]

Might have to change the title of this thread...

 

[blckgrffn]

Might have to change the title of this thread...

Well, obviously in the short term it is collapsing *upward*.