The anti-crypto thread

[BFG10K]

Great news, crypto's collapsing across the board: https://www.techpowerup.com/282380/...ions-in-less-than-24-hours-did-the-bubble-pop

Also China's banned crypto, though individuals can still have it: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-financial-payment-bodies-barred-122712260.html

The sooner this cancerous parasite is wiped out, the better.

 

[Insert_Nickname]

OEMs are more important than enthusiasts. Why? Because those OEMs push higher volumes of products with higher margins.

Higher volume certainly. Higher margins for NV/AMD, I'm a little more sceptical about.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Back on topic somewhat... I am honestly a bit uncertain what is going to happen after "the Merge" and PoS, and PoW being turned OFF for ETH mining. I hope that some of the other coins can step up and provide an income to miners, or at least, cover their electric costs and then some. But I if I were honest, if "the merge" happened today, I just don't see it happening. I see a huge mining crash. And my 21+ GPUs worth maybe, $100-200 at best ea.

-I'll make you a deal and take one of those 3xxx or 6xxx series off your hands now for $250. Limited time offer, I only stand to gain the longer you wait...

 

[VirtualLarry]

-I'll make you a deal and take one of those 3xxx or 6xxx series off your hands now for $250. Limited time offer, I only stand to gain the longer you wait...

LOL.

As IF I only actually owned any 30-serise or 6000-series GPUs. People think I'm this evil GPU leach, sucking up all their GPUs. Well, I don't own ANY of the current-generation ones.

(For those, you'll have to enter gladiatorial combat outside your local BestBuy, when they have "GPU drop ceremony".)

 

[DrMrLordX]

-I'll make you a deal and take one of those 3xxx or 6xxx series off your hands now for $250. Limited time offer, I only stand to gain the longer you wait...

Current-gen cards will probably drop back to MSRP at the lowest. Gamers still really want those things. Also AMD's 6-series cards kind of stink for mining. ~60 MH/s on Ethereum from the 6900XT is a bit embarassing.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

THIS should be emphasized. Miners bought laptops for mining and this didn't even made a single dent in Laptop shipments, and has not caused any laptop shortage.

Desktop, because of so limited supply of other hardware, was the only market that got the smallest shipments of products, because its the least profitable and least crucial segment for Nvidia, Intel, AMD. OEMs are more important than enthusiasts. Why? Because those OEMs push higher volumes of products with higher margins.

But that doesn't make for sensationalist headlines.

 

[PianoMan]

(For those, you'll have to enter gladiatorial combat outside your local BestBuy, when they have "GPU drop ceremony".)

I'd drive right on by the day before GPU drops and marvel at the lines for psychos planning to spend the night. Now, I may need to park with the upping ante of entertainment. "thumbs up/down anyone?"

 

[Arkaign]

Current-gen cards will probably drop back to MSRP at the lowest. Gamers still really want those things. Also AMD's 6-series cards kind of stink for mining. ~60 MH/s on Ethereum from the 6900XT is a bit embarassing.

Idk. If there is a legit crypto exodus from GPUs, there are far too many for gamers to absorb. On the Reddit crypto subs there are threads about SINGLE mining outfits that were in China with dedicated power stations with tens of thousands of GPUs per building. Similar ones in Scandinavia, I think it was Finland I saw one where they had these buildings that looked like large airplane hangers, with over 100k GPUs on site, and that was back in 2017, to say nothing of what it's built up to today.

We got insistence from both Nvidia and AMD, somewhat backed up by their quarterly and annual reports, that they have made more GPUs than any previous generation, yet nearly the entire allotment goes to these super mining outfits.

I'm not talking the people with a few, or even a couple hundred cards. But the outfits with literally as many as they can possibly acquire, the larger ones easily into the 6 digits and the most ambitious into the millions.

 

[moonbogg]

Idk. If there is a legit crypto exodus from GPUs, there are far too many for gamers to absorb. On the Reddit crypto subs there are threads about SINGLE mining outfits that were in China with dedicated power stations with tens of thousands of GPUs per building. Similar ones in Scandinavia, I think it was Finland I saw one where they had these buildings that looked like large airplane hangers, with over 100k GPUs on site, and that was back in 2017, to say nothing of what it's built up to today.

We got insistence from both Nvidia and AMD, somewhat backed up by their quarterly and annual reports, that they have made more GPUs than any previous generation, yet nearly the entire allotment goes to these super mining outfits.

I'm not talking the people with a few, or even a couple hundred cards. But the outfits with literally as many as they can possibly acquire, the larger ones easily into the 6 digits and the most ambitious into the millions.

Electronic money trees will do that. And people still talk about these as if they're still gaming products, lol.

 

[Arkaign]

Electronic money trees will do that. And people still talk about these as if they're still gaming products, lol.

True 😂

Well, the custom ASICs makers are continually improving, so the combo of PoS ETH and that enhanced experience and adaptability will probably make for more rapid expansion for future PoW crypto to need ASICs to be profitable. Even the ASIC resistant ETH is now at 2550W for the equal of 25X 3090 Hashrate, provided you can acquire one. They're basically unavailable unless you are in the right circles, because it makes more logical sense to just use the money tree rather than resell it. ASICs came to dominate BTC first, and after Eth falls from the GPU sphere, hopefully it will revert the market back to something that makes more sense. Let the miners go after ASICs, it would be a good opportunity for venture capital to do a new ASIC flagship in Taipei for example. Hashrate per watt is massively more efficient, and it doesn't expose Nvidia and AMD to extreme stability risks.

If Crypto, or specifically GPU mining profitability takes a complete nosedive, then GPU pricing will collapse below the point at which they can profitably sell new GPUs. It would take quite some time for the millions upon millions of various teirs to clear the mining market :

470, 480, 570, 580, 590, Vega 56, Vega 64, Fury X, 290/380/390, 5600, 5700, 6600, 6700, 6800, 6900

1060, 1070, 1070ti, 1080, 1080ti, 2060, 2060S, 2070, 2070S, 2080, 2080S, 2080ti, 3060, 3060ti, 3070, 3070ti, 3080, 3080ti, 3090

Etc etc. Total market might be somewhere 20-30 million units.

 

[MrTeal]

True 😂

Well, the custom ASICs makers are continually improving, so the combo of PoS ETH and that enhanced experience and adaptability will probably make for more rapid expansion for future PoW crypto to need ASICs to be profitable. Even the ASIC resistant ETH is now at 2550W for the equal of 25X 3090 Hashrate, provided you can acquire one. They're basically unavailable unless you are in the right circles, because it makes more logical sense to just use the money tree rather than resell it. ASICs came to dominate BTC first, and after Eth falls from the GPU sphere, hopefully it will revert the market back to something that makes more sense. Let the miners go after ASICs, it would be a good opportunity for venture capital to do a new ASIC flagship in Taipei for example. Hashrate per watt is massively more efficient, and it doesn't expose Nvidia and AMD to extreme stability risks.

If Crypto, or specifically GPU mining profitability takes a complete nosedive, then GPU pricing will collapse below the point at which they can profitably sell new GPUs. It would take quite some time for the millions upon millions of various teirs to clear the mining market :

470, 480, 570, 580, 590, Vega 56, Vega 64, Fury X, 290/380/390, 5600, 5700, 6600, 6700, 6800, 6900

1060, 1070, 1070ti, 1080, 1080ti, 2060, 2060S, 2070, 2070S, 2080, 2080S, 2080ti, 3060, 3060ti, 3070, 3070ti, 3080, 3080ti, 3090

Etc etc. Total market might be somewhere 20-30 million units.

Eth hashrate is 730TH/s. If you say Eth ASIC hashrate and GPUs mining other coins basically cancel out, 25M GPUs would give an average hashrate per card of 29MH/s which seems a little low. Still, there are a lot of older cards on the market and in the case of a total crypto collapse it would put a glut into a segment of the market that's basically non-existent now. Fully half the cards you listed are slower in gaming than a 3060, and unless Nvidia and AMD change stuff up with the next generation everything at the 3070 or weaker level won't probably won't even have an equivalent in the 4000/7000 series launch lineup. Would a $300 used 3070 have a depressive effect on the price of a 4060? Probably. Would that affect the price that much of 4080s? I'm not so sure.

ASIC hashrate really isn't massively more efficient for Eth than GPU mining as was the case with Bitcoin mining though. Even the new E9 (which who knows how many of those are even shipping) is 0.85J/MH based on their released specs. A 3060Ti/3070/6800 is ballpark 2J/MH at the wall, so the ASICs are a little more than twice as efficient as a GPU setup. That's wildly different than Bitcoin, where the 28nm 7970 would pull about 300J/GH, but the Antminer S1 pulled 2J/GH off the old 55nm node when they disrupted the market. If mining is profitable, GPUs will still have a play given their lower downside.

It would be interesting to see though. We've never really seen a real collapse where Nvidia has been dominant in deployed mining hashrate. It's previously hurt AMD, but as much as I love team they don't seem to have the same following for the newest cards regardless of market dynamics that Nvidia does. How much would a glut of used 3070 or even 3080s really alter the buying patterns of the gamer eyeing up that new 16GB 4080. It's got DLSS 3.0, and 10GB isn't enough now, and super RT, and Jensen said it was the biggest generational improvement Nvidia's ever had....

 

[DrMrLordX]

Idk. If there is a legit crypto exodus from GPUs, there are far too many for gamers to absorb.

Used market might go South, but the new market for cards will not drop as hard. Plus this will not happen until next year. New products will be out. The big question is: how much longer will people pay top price for mining hardware when the blade is about to fall? Will people buy next-gen hardware just to mine, knowing that they might not ever reach RoI?

 

[VirtualLarry]

Used market might go South, but the new market for cards will not drop as hard. Plus this will not happen until next year. New products will be out. The big question is: how much longer will people pay top price for mining hardware when the blade is about to fall? Will people buy next-gen hardware just to mine, knowing that they might not ever reach RoI?

There's a lot of stupid people, people with mining FOMO, and miners that seem hopelessly optimistic that mining will always be at least a little bit profitable. Personally, I have my doubts.

 

[beginner99]

cover their electric costs and then some. But I if I were honest, if "the merge" happened today, I just don't see it happening. I see a huge mining crash. And my 21+ GPUs worth maybe, $100-200 at best ea.

I mean this has been know for so long...If you are operating a mining form based on ethereum your simply not very smart if you did not start selling of the GPUs right now at sky high prices and saving up on ETH to move to PoS. You can bascially sell of all but 1 of your servers (and all GPUs) to run all your validators on 1 machine which will save you most of the power and all the renting space. Such a large mining operations should have been able to save up ETH for 100s to 1000s of validators.

 

[MrTeal]

I mean this has been know for so long...If you are operating a mining form based on ethereum your simply not very smart if you did not start selling of the GPUs right now at sky high prices and saving up on ETH to move to PoS. You can bascially sell of all but 1 of your servers (and all GPUs) to run all your validators on 1 machine which will save you most of the power and all the renting space. Such a large mining operations should have been able to save up ETH for 100s to 1000s of validators.

The end of Eth has been coming for a long time now, and that same advice has been given before. PoS will come eventually, but even earlier 5-6 months ago people were saying you'd better sell now with EIP1559 coming. If you'd done that and sold a 3080 in May you'd have missed out on mining $1000+ of Eth in the last 5 months, and used prices for non-LHR cards are even higher now than they were back then. The end will come eventually but it's not at all inconceivable that a half year from now we might still have the same GPU prices we do now, and you just gave up a half year of profitable mining for no gain.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

True 😂

Well, the custom ASICs makers are continually improving, so the combo of PoS ETH and that enhanced experience and adaptability will probably make for more rapid expansion for future PoW crypto to need ASICs to be profitable. Even the ASIC resistant ETH is now at 2550W for the equal of 25X 3090 Hashrate, provided you can acquire one. They're basically unavailable unless you are in the right circles, because it makes more logical sense to just use the money tree rather than resell it. ASICs came to dominate BTC first, and after Eth falls from the GPU sphere, hopefully it will revert the market back to something that makes more sense. Let the miners go after ASICs, it would be a good opportunity for venture capital to do a new ASIC flagship in Taipei for example. Hashrate per watt is massively more efficient, and it doesn't expose Nvidia and AMD to extreme stability risks.

If Crypto, or specifically GPU mining profitability takes a complete nosedive, then GPU pricing will collapse below the point at which they can profitably sell new GPUs. It would take quite some time for the millions upon millions of various teirs to clear the mining market :

470, 480, 570, 580, 590, Vega 56, Vega 64, Fury X, 290/380/390, 5600, 5700, 6600, 6700, 6800, 6900

1060, 1070, 1070ti, 1080, 1080ti, 2060, 2060S, 2070, 2070S, 2080, 2080S, 2080ti, 3060, 3060ti, 3070, 3070ti, 3080, 3080ti, 3090

Etc etc. Total market might be somewhere 20-30 million units.

-I can see NV at least implementing a buy-back program to prevent this glut of used hardware from flooding the market and absolutely cratering GPU sales.

Say buy back cards in lots of 100 or 500 or something and offer a "fair market value" for those cards (way easier for mining outfits to unload the cards in this way then selling piecemeal online).

Once NV has the cards back... recycle them or (less likely) resell though their storefront for a higher less competitive price.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Once NV has the cards back... recycle them

LOL! As if there were such a thing!

 

[Icecold]

I would be surprised if RTX 3xxx series cards will lose a ton of value. I think it will be mostly older cards, or cards that are more suited to mining than gaming. Cards such as GTX 970/980/980ti(not good for mining, relatively ok for 1080p gaming so their value is currently inflated), Vega 56/64(great for mining, pretty good for gaming but not great), RX 480/580 8GB (decent for mining, pretty underpowered for a lot of gaming) will lose a ton of value when there's better cards available for cheap. I wouldn't be shocked to see $150 Vega 56's and $50-$75 RX580's once eth goes POS.

 

[lightmanek]

Current-gen cards will probably drop back to MSRP at the lowest. Gamers still really want those things. Also AMD's 6-series cards kind of stink for mining. ~60 MH/s on Ethereum from the 6900XT is a bit embarassing.

Not in all metrics ... power to hash is good, price to hash is terrible, but that's why you buy 6800 and not 6900XT as they mine at the same speed.

 

[VirtualLarry]

I would be surprised if RTX 3xxx series cards will lose a ton of value. I think it will be mostly older cards, or cards that are more suited to mining than gaming.

I have mostly GTX 1660 Ti, 1660 Super, RX 5700(XT), and a couple of RX 5600XT (also Navi10, but with 192-bit bus and only 6GB VRAM instead of 8GB), and a couple of GTX 1650 (vanilla, without PCI-E power plugs).

The RX 5700XT will probably lose value the most, at least off of current valuation, of nearly 3-4X MSRP (Current being $1400 for new, MSRP being roughly $400-ish). GTX 1660 Super as well, somewhat. I paid mostly MSRP for most of my cards, a few of them I even picked up "refurb"/"open box", before prices started to go up, so I'm pretty good even if prices tank to MSRP.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

LOL! As if there were such a thing!

He's not saying recycle them for a 'refresh' next gen?

 

[VirtualLarry]

He's not saying recycle them for a 'refresh' next gen?

I didn't get that he meant "refurbish and re-brand". Please clarify.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Not in all metrics ... power to hash is good, price to hash is terrible, but that's why you buy 6800 and not 6900XT as they mine at the same speed.

If you compare any of the RDNA2 cards to Radeon VII, it's a bit surprising.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

I didn't get that he meant "refurbish and re-brand". Please clarify.

Refresh the cards moving them down tier, like how 680 became the 770. Would be hilarious to see if Nvidia would have the nerve to do a refresh with mined on chips.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Would be hilarious to see if Nvidia would have the nerve to do a refresh with mined on chips.

That would be ... different.

I could almost see that being a thing with refurbished gaming cards, that were used for mining, having their video outputs disabled, by re-flashing them with a modified "mining only" / CMP BIOS, and being re-sold as mining-only cards with a 90-day (or less!) warranty, in bulk.

 

[lightmanek]

If you compare any of the RDNA2 cards to Radeon VII, it's a bit surprising.

Well yes, that's correct!
I had Radeon VII and for mining it was and still is an amazing card!
But if we simply look at GDDR6(+) cards, RDNA is very efficient across the whole line-up when comes to hash per watt. Sadly each tier of cards in this lineup is overprices against competition (in my humble opinion).
My mining operation has 2 6800XT cards, one 5700XT and the rest of them are various Nvidia cards from 3060Ti to 3080.