The anti-crypto thread

[BFG10K]

Great news, crypto's collapsing across the board: https://www.techpowerup.com/282380/...ions-in-less-than-24-hours-did-the-bubble-pop

Also China's banned crypto, though individuals can still have it: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-financial-payment-bodies-barred-122712260.html

The sooner this cancerous parasite is wiped out, the better.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Instead of GPUs with LHR in them, what if NVidia took the opposite tact?

Remember, the physical PhysX accellerator card? It was a plug-in card specifically for PhysX tasks.

What if NVidia came out with a "mining accelerator" (*multi-purpose* ASIC miner card), that could do all of the popular algorithms, but had to be combined with an NVidia GPU, for set-up of each set of operations. Kind of like, the NVidia GPU would be the geometry pre-processor, and the mining accelerator would be the shader processor, to use an analogy.

The VRAM would be on the NVidia GPU, thus the mining accellerator, would pull via PCI-E (4.0, 5.0) bus from the GPU's VRAM content, thus also in effect allowing the mining accelerator to be "upgraded" in terms of effective VRAM space, when you upgraded you NVidia GPU.

Honestly, something like THAT sounds WAY better to me than "LHR". Granted, it would require somewhat significant R&D, but it seems doable. Power+cooling, depending on how many parallel accelerators were present on these cards, could be an issue, but if NVidia is moving up to 400-450W TDP for RTX 3090 ti / RTX 4000-series, it hardly seems that much of an issue. They could always move to an external power-supply for the card, if need be, but given the power needs of current 30-series cards and the 12-pin +12V connector, it still seems doable to utilize an ATX PSU.

They could also sell multiples of these accelerator cards, that would slot in next to each other (in risers, in mining rigs), and the require one NVidia GPU to "control" that group of accelerators, thus insuring that even those massive formerly-ASIC mining farms, would still be purchasing boatloads of NVidia GPUs (with the highest VRAM amounts).

This seems a win-win to me, and it would take a LOT of demand off of "plain gaming GPUs", just to satisfy "miner demand for accelerators", instead, NVidia could have a lineup of ACTUAL "CMPs" - Crypto Mining Processors, that were NOT just re-purposed GPUs sans video outputs, that effectively takes GPUs out of the hands of gamers, but true mining accelerators.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Crypto collapse cancelled. Bitcoin and Ethereum are nearly back at their ATHs.

 

[SAAA]

I don't even get why miners bother at all when it's been probably more profitable to hold the same money in crypto themselves over the years... not to talk with many of them going proof of stack rather than proof work (mining) there will be an overload of unused or unsold GPUs on the market in a few years.

 

[moonbogg]

The whole world thrown into chaos and millions dead all because some noob had a tear in their glove in a lab somewhere? This is absolutely ridiculous. As far as GPUs are concerned, I've come into acceptance of the situation. It took a while, but I'm there now. My perspective has been shifted to be more inline with reality. We are in a constant state of emergency and preventing the global economy from completely collapsing is like walking a mile-long tightrope while drunk during an earthquake. No one cares about our stupid games or that it costs more money to play them. I don't get to have a GPU this time. Big deal.

 

[blckgrffn]

I think I already mentioned it multiple times in this thread, but importing is terrible right now. It's something I am dealing with constantly.

I keep getting quotes back for my next container and they keep getting worse.

Now I am told a 3-5 weeks to get a semi to get my landed container out of port is the norm.

Oh yeah, and that will accrue me hundreds to thousands of dollars in "storage fees" as I am "unable" to move my container from port in a "timely" manner.

Guess who pays for that? I mean, besides me just taking it in the shorts...

The customers.

It can't be different for GPUs (fill in the blank) right now.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Guess who pays for that? I mean, besides me just taking it in the shorts...

The customers.

It can't be different for GPUs (fill in the blank) right now.

Even the slightly-elevated MSRP (?) of $429 for each of my Sapphire Pulse RX 6600 cards seems like an absolute bargain, when you put things that way...

Edit: Yes, I guess was a miner humblebrag / flex too. I had never won a Shuffle before, and they must have had some left over, because they had them for the same price, but required a forced combo purchase of a $110 B560 mobo, which wasn't a bad mobo, just mediocre.

 

[ultimatebob]

Ya know, I've heard that the new Macbook Pro is supposed to have really good a really good integrated GPU. Has anyone tried writing a cryptocurrency miner for the M1 yet?

 

[ultimatebob]

I think I already mentioned it multiple times in this thread, but importing is terrible right now. It's something I am dealing with constantly.

I keep getting quotes back for my next container and they keep getting worse.

Now I am told a 3-5 weeks to get a semi to get my landed container out of port is the norm.

Oh yeah, and that will accrue me hundreds to thousands of dollars in "storage fees" as I am "unable" to move my container from port in a "timely" manner.

Guess who pays for that? I mean, besides me just taking it in the shorts...

The customers.

It can't be different for GPUs (fill in the blank) right now.

Are they actually shipping high end GPU's by ship? I figured that they would be valuable enough to ship via Air Freight.

 

[blckgrffn]

Are they actually shipping high end GPU's by ship? I figured that they would be valuable enough to ship via Air Freight.

Air freight is even more expensive per KG. Also, air freight was crushed by lack of passengers on international flights.

And plagued by delays still...

I'd think those planes are full of even higher margin products, like iPhones and laptops. And other items I am not thinking of 🤷‍♂️

 

[ultimatebob]

Air freight is even more expensive per KG. Also, air freight was crushed by lack of passengers on international flights.

And plagued by delays still...

I'd think those planes are full of even higher margin products, like iPhones and laptops. And other items I am not thinking of 🤷‍♂️

I know that Apple ships their $2,000+ Macbook Pro's using FedEx directly from China, and they arrive in 2 days using "Standard" shipping.

You know what else costs around $2,000 nowadays? A GeForce 3090 or a Radeon 6900 XT

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I know that Apple ships their $2,000+ Macbook Pro's using FedEx directly from China, and they arrive in 2 days using "Standard" shipping.

You know what else costs around $2,000 nowadays? A GeForce 3090 or a Radeon 6900 XT

Just read Apple claims similar performance to a 3080

 

[njdevilsfan87]

We are in a constant state of emergency and preventing the global economy from completely collapsing is like walking a mile-long tightrope while drunk during an earthquake. No one cares about our stupid games or that it costs more money to play them. I don't get to have a GPU this time. Big deal.

Meanwhile the growth at a place like /r/antiwork is starting to become a little bit... unsettling?


Port of Long Beach is having problems because they can't find employees. What happens if this movement really blows up and our legacy systems actually collapse? Bill Gates may have been onto something when he said COVID was going to set us back 20 years. Maybe not go back to 20 years in time, but instead cost us 20 years of progress - as in technologically the life in 2040 may be very similar to life in 2020. But I actually kind of worry what life might be like in 2040 now... any guesses as to retail price on GPUs then? RTX 12090 for $25,000?

Oh wait, this is all Bitcoin's fault. Nevermind, back to hating on crypto.

 

[ozzy702]

Ya know, I've heard that the new Macbook Pro is supposed to have really good a really good integrated GPU. Has anyone tried writing a cryptocurrency miner for the M1 yet?

Isn't it using shared/unified memory? I can't imagine it having the bandwidth necessary to mine effectively. That 3080 speed claim is pretty suspect and has to be in non-memory intensive tasks.

Unless it's got an unbelievably wide bus, I doubt it would fair well. Looking forward to more info though.

Edit: Looks like the M1 max has an impressive 400Gb/s memory bandwidth. For reference the 3090 has 932Gb/s and a 3070 has 448Gb/s.

So, assuming the system/OS has no overhead (it will), the GPU core is powerful enough, it can stay cool and not throttle, and software is optimized the M1 max could mine around 55mh/s on Ethash at a low overall system power draw, probably in the 100-130w range from the wall.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Isn't it using shared memory? I can't imagine it having the bandwidth necessary to mine effectively. That 3080 speed claim is pretty suspect and has to be in non-memory intensive tasks.

Unless it's got an unbelievably wide bus, I doubt it would fair well. Looking forward to more info though.

Edit: Looks like the M1 max has an impressive 400Gb/s memory bandwidth. For reference the 3090 has 932Gb/s and a 3070 has 448Gb/s.

So, assuming the core is powerful enough, it can stay cool and not throttle, and software is optimized the M1 max could mine around 55mh/s on Ethash at a low overall system power draw, probably in the 100-130w range from the wall.

Everyone order a mac book. $2k now and resell for $6-10k a few months from now.
Might be able to afford a 3090.

 

[Mopetar]

Just read Apple claims similar performance to a 3080

I'm fairly sure that's the mobile version of the 3080 which I think it using the GA-104 die instead of the 102 die like the desktop 3080. It should be a lot closer to a 3070 and that's assuming you've got something that's similarly optimized to run well on Apple's hardware, which is probably isn't if we're being honest.

But honestly with the prices, Apple isn't really any more expensive than a gaming laptop. A top-end Alienware is a little over $3,000 which isn't too far off of the $3,200 Apple is asking for their top-end model. Both have 32 GB of RAM and 1 TB SSD so they're fairly comparable. The Alienware laptop only has a mobile 3070 so assuming Apple wasn't seriously overstating their performance it should come out ahead of that, at least on synthetics.

I do admit I'd laugh pretty damn hard if someone made a mining app for Apple's hardware and it caused some kind of price spike and the same situation we've seen in the GPU market. I'm not sure how practical it would be since ETH is pretty much limited by memory bandwidth more than processing power and the M1 Pro/Max doesn't have any more bandwidth than a desktop 3060, which does put a limit on how much anyone would pay if they just wanted to mine with it.

 

[VirtualLarry]

doesn't have any more bandwidth than a desktop 3060, which does put a limit on how much anyone would pay if they just wanted to mine with it.

You'de be surprised. Some miners are cra-cra, and are willing to gamble "YOLO money" on almost ANYTHING that can hash ETH. Just because of the shortages and general lack of availability of devices to do that.

 

[DooKey]

LOL. Mining is without a doubt causing many of the issues with cost of GPUs. LOL at those running 980Ti's and above saying they just can't game anymore because they can't upgrade to a latest generation GPU.

 

[Rebel_L]

Please see my edit to my last post. I'm not saying that mining has NO culpability, but considering the "laws" of supply+demand, if demand spikes, that will push the price equalibrium up, given the same supply, but it doesn't (directly) affect supply. Shortages are caused by a large of supply. That's why BFG10K's statement was itself disingenuous and didn't make sense. Supply and demand are independent variables.

Edit: If he had properly said, "mining demand increases prices nearly exponentially", I might have agreed with him, but "mining demand causes shortages" (lack of supply), does not compute.

I am not sure where you got the idea that shortages are a supply only issue. Shortages happen when Demand>Supply. Whether that stems from and increase in demand or a decrease in supply or a combination of both the term shortage is applicable. Prices adjusting upwards is one of the ways that shortages sort themselves out in cases where increasing supply can not happen or not happen fast enough. Increasing the price lowers demand, if for instance all video cards where priced at $1million tomorrow the shortages would disappear as soon as the next shipment of cards arrived as I am guessing demand from all sources would drop to near 0.

If you dont have an issue with "mining demand increases prices" you should be equally fine with "mining demand causes shortages" as prices rising is an effect caused by shortages

 

[VirtualLarry]

I am not sure where you got the idea that shortages are a supply only issue. Shortages happen when Demand>Supply. Whether that stems from and increase in demand or a decrease in supply or a combination of both the term shortage is applicable. Prices adjusting upwards is one of the ways that shortages sort themselves out in cases where increasing supply can not happen or not happen fast enough. Increasing the price lowers demand, if for instance all video cards where priced at $1million tomorrow the shortages would disappear as soon as the next shipment of cards arrived as I am guessing demand from all sources would drop to near 0.

If you dont have an issue with "mining demand increases prices" you should be equally fine with "mining demand causes shortages" as prices rising is an effect caused by shortages

OK, so I was wrong on my terminology, and BFG10K was correct in his usage. I am truly sorry.

 

[Insert_Nickname]

Even the slightly-elevated MSRP (?) of $429 for each of my Sapphire Pulse RX 6600 cards seems like an absolute bargain, when you put things that way...

That's what I paid (equivalent) for my 6600XT two months ago. Starting to look like a better and better deal.

Things are just weird at the moment.

 

[bigboxes]

Please see my edit to my last post. I'm not saying that mining has NO culpability, but considering the "laws" of supply+demand, if demand spikes, that will push the price equalibrium up, given the same supply, but it doesn't (directly) affect supply. Shortages are caused by a large of supply. That's why BFG10K's statement was itself disingenuous and didn't make sense. Supply and demand are independent variables.

Edit: If he had properly said, "mining demand increases prices nearly exponentially", I might have agreed with him, but "mining demand causes shortages" (lack of supply), does not compute.

Maybe he effectively meant, "mining's exponential demand for GPUs, causes a relative supply shortage for gamers, by taking a larger and larger percentage of mfg supply", not that how I originally read his statement and disagreed with, that "excess demand affects supply". He meant relative portion of supply available to gamers, and not actual mfg supply. Sorry.

That said, I think retailers anti-botting countermeasures (BestBuy, in-store pickup after online order), queue-system (EVGA), random lottery (Newegg Shuffle), seem to somehow be "not enough".

It's really kind of like an attempt at "gamer socialism", having a top-down command economy of sorts, to allocate and distribute GPUs to gamers, rather than to just sell them to the highest bidder (generally a miner, could be a "rich" gamer too).

LHR was kind of an attempt, mostly marketing, to deter miners from buying the LHR GPUs. But, like any DRM scheme, it was soon cracked, and now deters miners little.

Like someone noted, a reddit comment, would GPU mfg's rather sell one GPU every four years to a broke-azz gamer, or would they rather sell pallets to those guys (miners) with the $$$?

And think of how much the GPU mfg's obscene profits due to miners and the mining craze, are going to funnel back upwards towards the GPU R&D pipeline, to make even better GPUs for gamers. That's something that gamers rarely admit about the "miner crowd".

You a part of the problem. The more you talk the more you dig a deeper hole. Just stop.

 

[blckgrffn]

I know that Apple ships their $2,000+ Macbook Pro's using FedEx directly from China, and they arrive in 2 days using "Standard" shipping.

You know what else costs around $2,000 nowadays? A GeForce 3090 or a Radeon 6900 XT

Yeah, but you aren’t buying direct from Nvidia. GPUs are obviously in that case being resold by retailers and we know they aren’t drop shipping via small package (non freight) direct from China.

Buy a nice laptop from Lenovo and they’ll do the same thing, that’s because it’s a direct sale and not being resold by Staples or something. Direct deliveries can sidesteep a ton of handling costs in terms of receiving and reshipment, so it makes sense especially as a direct sale where you are at the highest possible margins.

Air freight is last resort because of cost. You either order thousands at a time and get a container or one at a time and use small package shipping. Splitting the middle is brutal. Just did it a few months ago for a couple pallets and it was crazy then, I am sure it has gotten worse.

We’re talking 10x the cost per kg on air freight vs ocean. Margins still matter, and if vendors are upping their costs to resellers I am sure it’s no gravy train right now for New Egg and the like. It might be better in terms of whole dollars, but percentages? Unsure.

 

[jpiniero]

Crypto collapse cancelled. Bitcoin and Ethereum are nearly back at their ATHs.

And now it's at ATH. Ethereum passed 4k for the first time.

 

[fleshconsumed]

And now it's at ATH. Ethereum passed 4k for the first time.

Not quite, but close. BTC just hit at all time high, ETH ATH was around $4300-4400, ETH still needs to go up 10% to get new ATH.

I'm still convinced that once ETH goes PoS situation will slowly normalize, but until then yeah, hold on to your cards guys.

Looking back I'm very amused by the thread title. We've had hundreds if not thousands of such predictions over the past 10 years. Blockchain is not going anywhere, it's here to stay.

 

[gorobei]

looks like the runup this time is due to the launch of a btc ETF (proshares). a 2nd etf is coming later. so easier access to btc exposure for the institutional investors.

the problem is that the proshares fund doesnt actually own any btc because it is a futures investment. they will invest most of the money in a regular market fund and allocate virtual coins. so if this doesnt pan out, the hype could come crashing down.

the forcasts are ranging from 80k-150k to irrational exuberant 500k.

with so many investors not understanding that the fund doesnt own actual coins, its going to be another wild ride up with another massive correction.

one of many vids covering the etf.