The anti-crypto thread

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Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,562
1,741
126
Waiting for Doge to rise to the MOON! I have some money invested in doge coin.

Hey, those 18 year olf YouTube investors convinced me that Doge will make us all rich.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,554
10,171
126

Max Maher shows how to lose $6000 in several DeFI projects, in the span of a short video.

IMHO, regulation (of some sort) is badly needed for this space. Or maybe it' all ponzi scheme's, all the way down, and this space should just be generally avoided.
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,331
251
126
Most DeFi native yield tokens have no value, and so you shouldn't yield them as they fall in value faster than you can yield. What happens there are extreme cases of impermanent loss - huge fluctuations of value of token pairs in very short periods of time.

Native token (top-50 on CMC) versus BTC, ETH, or stables. Or some other combination of those. But degens don't bother with those because the APYs there are "only" 10-50% instead of the 100-1000% promised on the DeFi tokens that are destined to quickly crash to zero.

Here's a useful tool: https://dailydefi.org/tools/impermanent-loss-calculator/

For Initial prices put $1 each. For future prices leave Token B at $1 and play around with the value of Token A to see what happens due to price fluctuation (or how much you'd need to make up via yielding to cover that loss). So now you can kind of understand that you want pairs that are likely to be stable and not deviate more than 2-3x from each other over long periods of time. That's the sweet spot because you only need to yield 7-15% over the course of the year to make up for the loss, which is very doable right now in DeFi land. In fact a lot of stable pairs with no loss will yield that.

Finally, even if you have a pair that's volatile in the short-term, it's important to note that you can still exit the pool with minimal impermanent loss so long as you do it when the relative prices of the tokens are about what they were when you entered. So for example BTC:ETH or BTC/ETH: (any top 50 CMC native token) or USDC:USDT (no loss). And etc. Once you do this, your only risk is DeFi exploit - which is a valid concern to have. At that point you just need to decide is the risk to reward is worth it. I personally would not put any significant portion of my savings into a DeFi pool. I just have a small portion of my own crypto holdings yielding on non-degen pairs.
 
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Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,988
3,171
136
IMHO, regulation (of some sort) is badly needed for this space. Or maybe it' all ponzi scheme's, all the way down, and this space should just be generally avoided.
Aside from world class stupidity and a pernicious lethargy that makes a great sloth look athletic, any significant changes would have to start by getting the addle brained geezers in the House and Senate to understand that the internet isn't really made of literal tubes.

But even that doesn't seem to be in the cards.

But the fed, the board of governors there are hardly slouches. And yet, all they seem to have done is try to make sure you pay your god damned taxes on any crypto oriented money you make. I heard of the SEC dipping into their box of bandaids, but I don't think even they have really done anything of substance. That shit with Ripple/XRP is dragging on like those endless death sentence appeals. And they've got some smart people there too.

Anyone want to explain that shit to me? Not blockchain. F*** block chain. Explain why these so-called regulatory agencies have their collective thumb up their ass.
TBH a tank would be pretty fun to have around my homestead property. Convert it into a dozer/excavator.
I guess you could do that, but keep the 50 caliber gun on top. Go do some junkie huntin'. They're good eatin' - well, I'm sure the bears will like them.

Bear 1 - whoa, I think that junkie might have had drugs in his system.

Bear 2 - I don't know you any more. And forget about mating with my sister. Loser.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,482
3,978
126
But the fed, the board of governors there are hardly slouches. And yet, all they seem to have done is try to make sure you pay your god damned taxes on any crypto oriented money you make.

Anyone want to explain that shit to me? Not blockchain. F*** block chain. Explain why these so-called regulatory agencies have their collective thumb up their ass.
First, the world has to answer the most basic question. Is crypto a currency (a middleman during a transaction) or a way to profit? If crypto is mostly about generating profits, then they are doing exactly what they should be doing: taxing profits. If crypto is a currency, then profits should be negligible and they are not doing enough.

A US penny is a form of currency. I can use it to buy items or services. I do not profit from holding the penny or profit from mining the penny or profit from holding a wallet of pennies. Does this describe crypto to you?
 
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Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,988
3,171
136
First, the world has to answer the most basic question. Is crypto a currency (a middleman during a transaction) or a way to profit? If crypto is mostly about generating profits, then they are doing exactly what they should be doing: taxing profits. If crypto is a currency, then profits should be negligible and they are not doing enough.

A US penny is a form of currency. I can use it to buy items or services. I do not profit from holding the penny or profit from mining the penny or profit from holding a wallet of pennies. Does this describe crypto to you?
Maybe I'm misreading you, but people make money trading currencies every day in the FOREX markets, so I'm not sure what you mean. And even fiat currencies can be . . . well not exactly volatile - certainly not in the same way as cryptos. But you saw how the Ruble crashed and then kept digging. A lot of people betting on the ruble got their clocks cleaned.

OK, quick lesson in monetary theory.

The value of money is determined by supply and demand, just like everything else. Except that the price of money is the interest rate you have to pay to get some. More money with no change in demand means lower rates and vice versa.

Demand is determined mainly by the level of economic activity in the country(ies) that use the currency. But you also have to consider the level of international demand.

So for example, the dollar is considered the premier "reserve" currency. Other countries need to hold a certain amount of dollars if they want some level of liquidity in transacting business with US companies - as an example.

With fiat currencies, the amount in circulation can easily be modified by fed policy. So if the economy slows, the fed can release more liquidity and drive down interest rates to stimulate the lagging economy.

On the other side, if the economy is too hot - too much liquidity - the fed just sells assets and sucks that liquidity into the black hole they keep in the 10th sub basement of the NY Fed (that's a joke, I say, a joke son - nobody remembers Foghorn Leghorn. Shame. Such a classic).

Of course this pretty oversimplified but it gives the main broad parameters.

But notice what's happening in both cases. When we need money, we conjure it out of the ether. when it's being a pain in the ass, we send it to from whence it came. So in some sense, fiat currencies aren't "real" in the traditional sense of being backed by anything of value, like gold. It's demand that creates its value and that value can be easily manipulated.

But that's good. It's something that should have happened centuries ago. Monetary policy, in increasing or decreasing the money supply, can be used to stimulate a sluggish economy and turn down the heat for one that's pushing the economic envelope.

I hope that made some sense. Now let's look at cryptos.

The ones like BTC are primarily deflationary. What does that mean? There will always be a fixed number of BTC in existence - for all practical purposes. Of course I'm ignoring the ones yet to be mined but even those will eventually be tapped out.

So no matter how much or little demand there is for BTC, the float (available supply for trading) is basically fixed. That's part of why it's so volatile. Of course the main reason though is that its primary use is speculative. Remember the Dutch tulip bulb craze a few centuries ago? It's exactly like that.

So how does a crypto acquire value when it's actually just zero's and one's floating in the ether? Well, there has to be some "use case" that only BTC can satisfy. Very few cryptos have even a single realistic use case. In almost every case, their value is determined by speculators.
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,028
11,609
136
First, the world has to answer the most basic question. Is crypto a currency (a middleman during a transaction) or a way to profit? If crypto is mostly about generating profits, then they are doing exactly what they should be doing: taxing profits. If crypto is a currency, then profits should be negligible and they are not doing enough.

A US penny is a form of currency. I can use it to buy items or services. I do not profit from holding the penny or profit from mining the penny or profit from holding a wallet of pennies. Does this describe crypto to you?

Looks like someone has never heard of forex.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,482
3,978
126
Looks like someone has never heard of forex.
I fully understand Forex. Do you mine Euros of Forex? Do you mine Ruples? Is holding pesos your primary investment or income? Forex profits are not zero, but they are negligible in comparison to what people are expecting out of crypto. That is why I specifically did not say zero profit in my post.

Comparing crypto to forex is like comparing a baby stroller to a battleship because they both hold people. The only way you can compare crypto to Forex is if you are going into massive leverage and then the better comparison would be a casino than Forex.
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,028
11,609
136
I fully understand Forex. Do you mine Euros of Forex? Do you mine Ruples? Is holding pesos your primary investment or income? Forex profits are not zero, but they are negligible in comparison to what people are expecting out of crypto. That is why I specifically did not say zero profit in my post.

Comparing crypto to forex is like comparing a baby stroller to a battleship because they both hold people. The only way you can compare crypto to Forex is if you are going into massive leverage and then the better comparison would be a casino than Forex.

1). Your point had nothing to do with mining
2). There ARE people who use Forex as a major source of income

So like

. . .

yeah. Okay man.
 
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BFG10K

Lifer
Aug 14, 2000
22,709
2,995
126
Imagine a world where people give you money, and in return you give them absolutely nothing.


Prosecutors say Nguyen and Llacuna transferred around $1.1 million in crypto they made from the scheme to various wallets in multiple transactions designed to obfuscate the source of the funds.
There's that whole "crypto's really great when neither party trusts each other", again.

Psst, here's a secret. Right-click, save as...

There, just saved everyone million $bucks. No need to thank me.
 
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Reactions: Zorba

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,988
3,171
136
Imagine a world where people give you money, and in return you give them absolutely nothing.


Psst, here's a secret. Right-click, save as...

There, just saved everyone million $bucks. No need to thank me.
OK, off topic but important. If you're what I'd call a digital hoarder, meaning you tend to clip a lot of stuff off the web, please, please, take a look at Evernote. That's it. If you're interested, take a look. BTW, I don't think being a "digital hoarder" is necessarily a bad thing. There's all sort of useful and/or interesting shit you probably come across every day. But is it doing you any good if you can't ever find it again?

Here's the problem. You save this cool article about . . . whatever, then the time comes that you have this vague memory of something you want to go back to, but f*** me, where is it, then you have to give the computer 3 days to search through 20 exabytes of data - by having explorer search the contents of who knows how many files.OMG, how are you still alive? There's an app (or 12) for virtually everything. I saw one a few days ago, that, if you're traveling someplace, let's you mail your belongings to your destination before you leave - so you don't have to deal with the idiot airlines. I didn't look into it so they probably only have locations in maybe a half dozen cities, but still.

Next, this really so not in my character, but I could give less than a shit about NFTs. I still have no idea what they are and I will not spend a nanosecond of my time trying to find out. This shit is so like the Dutch tulip bulb mania of a few centuries ago. If you're not familiar, read whatever the summary paragraph on Wikipedia says. I think you'll be entertained, at least until the similarities register.

Note: just read about that on wiki. Eh. Pretty dry but informative. Even so, you're probably going be hearing about it with monotonous regularity - if you haven't already.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,028
11,609
136
Next, this really so not in my character, but I could give less than a shit about NFTs.

I honestly don't either, not in their current state. It's a curiosity at this point. Minting them costs too much and there's no clear established transfer of rights associated with the sale. Until the rights associated with holding (vs. authoring/minting) an NFT are clarified, they're useless tech demos. Cryptokitties weren't any better. And also minting fees need to come way down.
 

beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,231
1,605
136
I honestly don't either, not in their current state. It's a curiosity at this point. Minting them costs too much and there's no clear established transfer of rights associated with the sale. Until the rights associated with holding (vs. authoring/minting) an NFT are clarified, they're useless tech demos. Cryptokitties weren't any better. And also minting fees need to come way down.

You can mint NFTs for pennies on L2 now. of course current "jpegs" isn't really the only use-case. More interesting would be stocks as NFTs for example and it's clear I mention this due to the huge market that would open.
 

BFG10K

Lifer
Aug 14, 2000
22,709
2,995
126

crashtech

Lifer
Jan 4, 2013
10,580
2,150
146
Thailand has been a military junta for a long time, and still is in all but name. So, compare and contrast fail.
Typically, authoritarian regimes are the ones that are ban-happy about everything.
 
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