The anti-crypto thread

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BFG10K

Lifer
Aug 14, 2000
22,709
2,980
126

The company said that "in the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors."
Of course they would.

"Cryptocoin is intrinsically safe and can't be taken from you!" - The Internet Cryptobros
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
never even heard of Terra blockchain.
98% plunge in 24hrs.

from crypto millionaires to homeless in 24hrs.
no stop loss?

I've heard of them before. Their crypto bros were just recently gloating on Twitter back in April that their crypto was still going up in value while Bitcoin and Ethereum were dropping. I guess that someone took offense to that, and decided to end their little Ponzi scheme once and for all.

Terra (symbol LUNA) was trading at $100 back then... now it trades at 8 cents
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
It is if you don't leave it on an exchange. Duh. People have only been saying that since Mt. Gox.

This goes for Robinhood as well. Unless you have the private key for your crypto, you don't really own it. In Robinhood's case, they have all of "your" crypto shared in some giant wallets. If they suddenly went bankrupt tomorrow, you're going to have trouble getting that back.

It's another reason why the "Dogecoin Millionaire" is such a moron. Not only did he invest $200,000 on a friggin doggy meme coin, but he's leaving his balance on Robinhood. How he hasn't been hacked at this point is beyond me.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,322
2,928
126
I needed that for the stock market thread, where I was saying you should buy on the way out of the dip, not the way into the dip.
You have yourself totally convinced of this. That's fine. You do you. Telling others that this is the only way isn't fair to them.

The big thing missing in your strategy is knowing where the bottom is and knowing that it isn't a false bottom.

Averaging down has proven to be a great strategy for long term investors given the right positions. It works knowing there will be an eventual rebound. With ETFs. that's a given.

Tens of millions of people do dollar-cost averaging by having a 401k. They'll do well in the end too.

I wouldn't do averaging down on something as volatile and relatively new as Bitcoin. I don't think long term factors into many Crypto Bro portfolios. They gotta get those Lambos now.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,214
3,632
126
You have yourself totally convinced of this. That's fine. You do you. Telling others that this is the only way isn't fair to them.

The big thing missing in your strategy is knowing where the bottom is and knowing that it isn't a false bottom.

Averaging down has proven to be a great strategy for long term investors given the right positions. It works knowing there will be an eventual rebound. With ETFs. that's a given.
I do believe that I said a "slightly better" way, not the "only way". I am sorry if you found my posts to be unfair. They aren't targeting you, they are just the widely accepted view that you shouldn't catch a falling knife. You are correct, you absolutely can't know if it is the bottom or a false bottom. Only a few people in the world are lucky enough to find the real bottoms. The strategy is to buy it on the way up once it appears to have a strong foothold--not trying to find the true bottom. You can be wrong buying on the way up but, more often than not, you do a bit better than buying as soon as you see a dip to a set price.

Also, yes dollar cost averaging is a great way. Buy in when you have the money tends to do even better than buying at a set price. For most people, that IS how they should buy stocks.

It was simply that buying a dip at a set price on the way down that is an easy way to lose your shirt when waiting a bit is a relatively easy way to do the same thing with less risk.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,322
2,928
126
I do believe that I said a "slightly better" way, not the "only way". I am sorry if you found my posts to be unfair. They aren't targeting you, they are just the widely accepted view that you shouldn't catch a falling knife. You are correct, you absolutely can't know if it is the bottom or a false bottom. Only a few people in the world are lucky enough to find the real bottoms. The strategy is to buy it on the way up once it appears to have a strong foothold--not trying to find the true bottom. You can be wrong buying on the way up but, more often than not, you do a bit better than buying as soon as you see a dip to a set price.

Also, yes dollar cost averaging is a great way. Buy in when you have the money tends to do even better than buying at a set price. For most people, that IS how they should buy stocks.

It was simply that buying a dip at a set price on the way down that is an easy way to lose your shirt when waiting a bit is a relatively easy way to do the same thing with less risk.
That I agree with.

Aside from crypto, what would you consider a foothold with the current markets? Are you going to assess day by day, week by week? I'd think you would want to establish it as soon as possible so as not to lose out. I see there being more to it than just year over year inflation numbers.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,214
3,632
126
Aside from crypto, what would you consider a foothold with the current markets? Are you going to assess day by day, week by week? I'd think you would want to establish it as soon as possible so as not to lose out. I see there being more to it than just year over year inflation numbers.
I invest each paycheck into my 401k with the full amount allowed. So, much of my investments use dollar cost averaging.

That said, I do have some spare cash that I use for after-tax investments. I frankly got scared in Aug 2020 with the S&P in the 3300 to 3400 range (pandemic wasn't going away, election was coming up, and stocks were skyrocketing to all-time highs) and sold off ~10% of my portfolio that was 100% stocks at the time. I should have held out longer. Instead I put it into a ~2% return stable cash fund. I would ideally like to get back in around the level that I got out. Will the S&P reach that low? I have no idea. I don't buy on a set price.

For my after-tax money, I buy when my portfolio is low in a sector and that sector happens to be low in price for a few weeks/months. For me, my portfolio is lower than my predetermined percent in European and Asian stocks. European stocks are low. So, I'm likely to buy those next. https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VEMAX:MUTF?window=5Y

But from that chart, you can see they are falling like a knife right now. So, I'm going to hold back for a bit. You can see troughs from Oct 2018 to Jan 2019 and Mar 2020 to May 2020. Troughs tend to last a couple months (or do a dead-cat bounce and fall back again a month or two later). So, I don't have fear of missing out. I'll wait to see if European stocks stabilize for a few weeks, if they do, I'll buy them.

Then onto Asian stocks, then maybe by then US stocks will have stabilized.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,813
11,168
136
A stablecoin's stability is remarkable:
View attachment 61380

Meanwhile, elsewhere:


Averaging down has proven to be a great strategy for long term investors given the right positions. It works knowing there will be an eventual rebound. With ETFs. that's a given.

Tens of millions of people do dollar-cost averaging by having a 401k. They'll do well in the end too.

I wouldn't do averaging down on something as volatile and relatively new as Bitcoin. I don't think long term factors into many Crypto Bro portfolios. They gotta get those Lambos now.

I've done it with ETH and REQ, sort of. Only doing it in tiny increments? Nah, I bought in clumps, aimed at the bottom, kind of missed with REQ, and made out well anyway. With ETH I got in at around $12 (+mining), bought more at around $6-$7 in Dec 2016 when it crashed, and wound up selling a year later at around $636.

With REQ I got in at ~$.0254 in Nov 2018. It dropped to $.009 a few months later, but I got out last November at $.68. That was a 3-year HODL. Not for the weak-kneed. I really should have brought in more capital when it dipped below $.01 but oh well. Woulda coulda shoulda.
 
Reactions: legcramp

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,997
20,236
136
Meanwhile, elsewhere:




I've done it with ETH and REQ, sort of. Only doing it in tiny increments? Nah, I bought in clumps, aimed at the bottom, kind of missed with REQ, and made out well anyway. With ETH I got in at around $12 (+mining), bought more at around $6-$7 in Dec 2016 when it crashed, and wound up selling a year later at around $636.

With REQ I got in at ~$.0254 in Nov 2018. It dropped to $.009 a few months later, but I got out last November at $.68. That was a 3-year HODL. Not for the weak-kneed. I really should have brought in more capital when it dipped below $.01 but oh well. Woulda coulda shoulda.
Exactly. It's just gambling.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,813
11,168
136
Exactly. It's just gambling.

What are you talking about? DAI has been $1.00 for ages. Just look at the lifetime price chart. It's an actual stablecoin. If you look at USDC and USDT you'll see similar price charts.

unless you're talking about the rest of my post but it's kind of hard to tell. But no I'm running a much better success rate than casino patrons.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,997
20,236
136
What are you talking about? DAI has been $1.00 for ages. Just look at the lifetime price chart. It's an actual stablecoin. If you look at USDC and USDT you'll see similar price charts.

unless you're talking about the rest of my post but it's kind of hard to tell. But no I'm running a much better success rate than casino patrons.

I was talking about the rest of your post. But yes while you may be beating the house, it's still gambling. Some people may have better odds due to certain insights or being able to leverage certain amounts of cash, but ultimately, crypto is gambling. It's imaginary, as we have been seeing for quite some time now.
 
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