The brits are in for a rough ride

[pmv]

The tory party could yet become desperate enough to turn to Farage, but I think that would be too great a humiliation for them. I think they would have to get relegated to third place, but then where would Reform be then? If Reform did better then Farage wouldn't bother going to the tories, and if Reform did worse then why would the tories want Farage?

IMO the only reason for any kind of split to be occurring in the tory party is because they don't have a figurehead for their personality cult: success is more important than scruples for the conservatives. I think it's more likely that they'll go back to Boris than Farage (which I don't think is likely either, but it might happen if the tories are either relegated to third place, or their second place is approximately as good as third place).

Well, I probably should have said "Farageism" rather than Farage. It's not impossible they might end up with the man himself, but it's more that the party hasn't fully and single-mindedly embraced the racist xenophobic agenda. At least it hasn't yet. Hence their losing the votes of those who support that agenda to Reform.

And given the influence in the party of figures who clearly have interests that clash with that agenda (not least in their personally not being white, but also in terms of economic self-interests), I find it hard to imagine the Tories turning wholesale into the Reform Conservatives (or Conform, as one internet comment suggested they should be called). Johnson, I suppose, got the closest to squaring the circle, by papering over the divide with showmanship and lies, but those lies seem to have destroyed what little credibility he had, and without that I can't see how it can avoid a split.

I just can't see how they can keep the show on the road when they are so divided. The puzzle is how come the US Republicans are able to manage it.

 

[mikeymikec]

The puzzle is how come the US Republicans are able to manage it.

The personality cult. As long as they think Trump gives them a shot at power, they will/have put up with a heck of a lot more than they normally would. Even if the next election is close but they still lose, they'll stick with Trump until someone else comes along.

IMO, if the tories lose the next election, BJ will have another title shot. IMO against Cameron, because Cameron was the closest thing they've had to a reasonably decent leader in a *long* time. AFAIK there's no-one else.

 

[fskimospy]

Well, I probably should have said "Farageism" rather than Farage. It's not impossible they might end up with the man himself, but it's more that the party hasn't fully and single-mindedly embraced the racist xenophobic agenda. At least it hasn't yet. Hence their losing the votes of those who support that agenda to Reform.

And given the influence in the party of figures who clearly have interests that clash with that agenda (not least in their personally not being white, but also in terms of economic self-interests), I find it hard to imagine the Tories turning wholesale into the Reform Conservatives (or Conform, as one internet comment suggested they should be called). Johnson, I suppose, got the closest to squaring the circle, by papering over the divide with showmanship and lies, but those lies seem to have destroyed what little credibility he had, and without that I can't see how it can avoid a split.

I don't know what any party is supposed to do when they've discredited themselves as totally as the Tories have in the last 10 years or so. When you've failed this utterly at governance what are you supposed to say and what are the voters supposed to do? They gave the Conservatives a very large majority in government and they shit the bed with it, no?

I just can't see how they can keep the show on the road when they are so divided. The puzzle is how come the US Republicans are able to manage it.

US Republicans are united in their hatred of Democrats. The reasons why they hate them may vary but that's the central unifying principle and I'm not joking, it's mostly a cultural thing.

 

[WelshBloke]

At some point the Tory party will have a split (I mean this is pretty much what's occurring now). The right that are obsessed with brown people and people using specific toilets after proving what their genitalia look like, and the right that are more worried about taxes, the social welfare bill, and transfering wealth from the poor upwards.
We could end up with the original Tories full of the one nation lot and a new party full of culture warriors, and the free market xenophobes.
I'd imagine if that happened a few Labour members would switch to the centrist Tories.

 

[fskimospy]

At some point the Tory party will have a split (I mean this is pretty much what's occurring now). The right that are obsessed with brown people and people using specific toilets after proving what their genitalia look like, and the right that are more worried about taxes, the social welfare bill, and transfering wealth from the poor upwards.
We could end up with the original Tories full of the one nation lot and a new party full of culture warriors, and the free market xenophobes.
I'd imagine if that happened a few Labour members would switch to the centrist Tories.

It would be darkly amusing if Cameron destroyed a two century old (depending on what you count) political party from an O’Hare UNO’s pizza.

 

[WelshBloke]

It would be darkly amusing if Cameron destroyed a two century old (depending on what you count) political party from an O’Hare UNO’s pizza.

It's even more amusing when you remember that him fucking a dead pigs head was totally ok to the party!

 

[pmv]

I don't think there's anything much left of the "One Nation" strand of Conservatism. They were a product of a specific era and set of circumstances.

But there does seem to me to be a clear clash of interests between those who are concerned with money above all else, and those who mono-maniacally fixate on "culture wars".

I know to a degree the former will use the latter instrumentally, as a means-to-an-end (something that seems to happen quite openly with the Republicans). But Brexit and the arguments over immigration seem to show the limits of that - the two interests are incompatible on that topic - and even someone as insulated by wealth as Sunak, appears not to be completely unaffected by blatant racism (I choose to take at face-value his upset about that Reform guy using the p-word...I suppose it might just be a calculated means of attacking Reform, but it's probably genuine hurt, and for the first and probably only time ever, I sympathise with him).

Badenoch is confusing, though - simultaneously upset at racism (she was the only Tory figure to object to that Tory donor's appalling comments about Diane Abbott) but also an anti-trans obsessive culture-war warrior.

I think there might be room for two far-right factions - the "Tory" one more inclusive than the Farageist one, insofar as they'll tolerate Hindu-origin Indians or African Christians, and far less interested in 'levelling up' for poorer mostly white areas, but both seeing Muslims as the enemy.

 

[mikeymikec]

At some point the Tory party will have a split (I mean this is pretty much what's occurring now). The right that are obsessed with brown people and people using specific toilets after proving what their genitalia look like, and the right that are more worried about taxes, the social welfare bill, and transfering wealth from the poor upwards.
We could end up with the original Tories full of the one nation lot and a new party full of culture warriors, and the free market xenophobes.
I'd imagine if that happened a few Labour members would switch to the centrist Tories.

But aren't both of those "rights" obsessed about transferring wealth to the rich?