The Democratic Party's Middle America Heartland Problem

[FerrelGeek]

I'd like to see how many from the party in power retired in those elections vs in 2018. I know a goodly number of Ds left in 1994, but I don't know if it rivaled the 40-45 that left last year.

It was a slaughter. The only thing that saved it from being even worse was gerrymandering and geographic concentration.

Largest absolute vote margin in midterm history:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/el...te-record-house-popular-vote-midterms-n940116

Largest percentage margin for a minority party since 1942 when the US began keeping records of this:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/06/politics/latest-house-vote-blue-wave/index.html

Including all elections it's still the largest margin in recent history with the exception of 2008.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1060005925233270784

If 2018 wasn't an ass-kicking then ass-kickings don't exist. I encourage conservatives to keep trying to convince themselves that 2018 wasn't a warning though. Keep doing what you're doing! If you won't learn the lessons of what the voters were trying to tell you then you're just dooming yourself to repeat it.

 

[fskimospy]

I don't think it'll be as hard for the Dems to win the "heartland" as the OP suggests. It's pretty simple: Trump hasn't delivered the jobs and economic gains he promised. People in those areas didn't see a surge in jobs, and growth has slowed under Trump; they didn't get a significant tax break, certainly not a permanent one.

So long as the Dems campaign in those areas and remind constituents that Trump failed, as he usually does, they'll stand a better chance than they did in 2016.

I do think that's the best campaign idea. You elected Trump because you felt that you were being left behind. What did he do when he got in office? Tried to take away your health care so he could give money to rich people. When that failed, he just gave money to rich people.

 

[senseamp]

Isn't it curious that heartland, which voted for small government Republicans is waiting for an economic plan from big government Democrats? Something didn't go according to plan, huh?

 

[fskimospy]

I'd like to see how many from the party in power retired in those elections vs in 2018. I know a goodly number of Ds left in 1994, but I don't know if it rivaled the 40-45 that left last year.

1) Politicians often retire when they think they are going to lose, meaning it's not one-way causation.
2) Even with that in mind while more retirements are correlated with greater losses, the relationship isn't that strong.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-recent-rush-of-gop-retirements-is-good-for-democrats/

2018 was a historic slaughter. If conservatives don't learn that lesson they're doomed to repeat it.

 

[MagnusTheBrewer]

The idea that "facts" are somehow independent of interpretation is ludicrous on it's face.

 

[senseamp]

The Democrats should just let the heartland live in the small government utopia it voted for.

 

[BurnItDwn]

Hehehehehehehehe

Where have I heard this before?

He's a joke, he will never run for president!
Okay, he might be running, but he will never be the candidate! He's stupid!
Okay, he is the candidate, but the stupid fuck will never win the election!


Oh fuck... Maybe Trump isn't the stupid one...

EDIT: See

Not So fucking funny now morons...

Thats nice
I mentioned on here and more or less was laughed off this forum when I posted that Trump might take the Republican nomination and that Hillary wasn't a sure bet for president.


That said, I suspect the Democratic party elites will do whatever they can to Stop Bernie, and if they succeed, we will have another 4 years of Trump.

 

[HomerJS]

I have a question for the heartland.

Why do you still vote against your better interest? A-la, tax cuts for the rich.

 

[Indus]

I have a question for the heartland.

Why do you still vote against your better interest? A-la, tax cuts for the rich.

Because they think they are the rich and real America. The other people and other states who don't agree with them should be treated as pariahs. Fuck em.

Why should they be worried? They still get laid and have babies but they'll be damned if they let anyone abort their children because of incest! Liberals are evil!

 

[TAK3OVR]

because they don’t care. Question, your thoughts on reparations ?

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

because they don’t care. Question, your thoughts on reparations ?

Hello! Who were you before? To answer your question, no on "reparations" but yes on changing the conditions which lead to a discussion on that subject. If people have the tools and real opportunity without prejudice, then the point of reparations is moot.

 

[K1052]

I have a question for the heartland.

Why do you still vote against your better interest? A-la, tax cuts for the rich.

Gullibility.

 

[HomerJS]

because they don’t care. Question, your thoughts on reparations ?

Cutting people a check, no.

Having a discussion as to what it means, absolutely.

 

[BurnItDwn]

I have a question for the heartland.

Why do you still vote against your better interest? A-la, tax cuts for the rich.

Envision a booming city with a strong middle class, a number of factories, and a relatively good life. Yes, there is lots of hard work, but, the pay is good and you can raise a family on 1 income with little education.

Now, imagine if 100% of all the industry were to disappear.
As the jobs dissapear, about 1/3 to 1/4 of the population moves somewhere else. A bunch of people are forced to retire since all the local opportunities are gone and their bodies are tired and worn out for decades of hard work.

Neo-Liberal "Elite" Democrats come in and offer training ... but, the catch is, the jobs they offer to train for pay 1/4 to 1/2 what they made at their job before the factory closed. Or, they offer training for jobs that don't exist there. These people have roots there and want to stay put, so moving to some other part of the world to follow a job that pays less than they used to make is not really a good option.

Republicans talk about how good "it used to be" and "values" and even though many of the folks don't buy into the republican bullshit either .... they can at least relate to many of the republican candidates.


The question is, why are mainstream democrats ignoring all the small towns and main streets that have lost their income streams due to outsourcing and automation?

 

[Indus]

The question is, why are mainstream democrats ignoring all the small towns and main streets that have lost their income streams due to outsourcing and automation?

They are not ignoring.

Haven't you heard of the basic income plan?

 

[woolfe9998]

Democrats won the vote by the largest margin in midterm history. So no, that hasn’t happened in every midterm. This was a total annihilation.

Even worse for conservatives, midterm victories usually come because of good turnout for the party out of power and bad turnout for the president’s party. That wasn’t the case here - turnout was very high for both. That means conservatives can’t console themselves with the idea of better turnout in 2020.

If conservatives want to convince themselves that 2018 was a normal midterm by all means go ahead! I hope they ignore all the alarms flashing red just like they did last November. Look what that got them.

It also shows that Trump and the GOP are on a diminishing to flat return using immigrant bashing as a principle electoral strategy. It does nothing to grab swing voters. It only increases turnout of their base, which is already high. But Trump plans to do it again next year, making it his lead issue instead of the economy.

 

[hal2kilo]

It doesn't matter. The red areas feed you. Without them, you'd have no milk.

Yes, blue areas have more population, but red areas have more heartland work ethic.

I'm an Independent and I know this.

Yes, Democrats won the House in 2018, but they still have heartland problems. Talk about jobs, healthcare, etc.

This is soo funny.

 

[hal2kilo]

They're the backbone of America. When 9/11 happened, who volunteered to fight in Afghanistan? Not the people in NYC who were still stuck on hating Bush/Giuliani/Reagan, it was the guys from Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kansas, Arizona.

The heartland decides elections. Deal with it. Both parties have challenges but the GOP is a cult of personality and Democrats should be ashamed that they allow the GOP to take the heartland.

When will Democrats campaign in Canton, Lorain, Parma, Kansas City, Affton, Elyria, Duluth, Little Rock, Nashville?

Wow, I can't stop cracking up. Rage on!

 

[BurnItDwn]

They are not ignoring.

Haven't you heard of the basic income plan?

I like Andrew Yang a lot.

The progressives are working very hard to fight for the heartland.
It's the "neo-liberal" branch of the party which is the "mainstream" democrat. You can't trust people who take $$$ from big business

 

[Jhhnn]

Envision a booming city with a strong middle class, a number of factories, and a relatively good life. Yes, there is lots of hard work, but, the pay is good and you can raise a family on 1 income with little education.

Now, imagine if 100% of all the industry were to disappear.
As the jobs dissapear, about 1/3 to 1/4 of the population moves somewhere else. A bunch of people are forced to retire since all the local opportunities are gone and their bodies are tired and worn out for decades of hard work.

Neo-Liberal "Elite" Democrats come in and offer training ... but, the catch is, the jobs they offer to train for pay 1/4 to 1/2 what they made at their job before the factory closed. Or, they offer training for jobs that don't exist there. These people have roots there and want to stay put, so moving to some other part of the world to follow a job that pays less than they used to make is not really a good option.

Republicans talk about how good "it used to be" and "values" and even though many of the folks don't buy into the republican bullshit either .... they can at least relate to many of the republican candidates.


The question is, why are mainstream democrats ignoring all the small towns and main streets that have lost their income streams due to outsourcing and automation?

Oh, please. When Reagan convinced conservative America to put their faith in the Jerb Creators of Capitalism, they did, and they abandoned the principles of the New Deal at the same time. They let the rights of ownership reign supreme & screwed themselves in the process. They went along with the Libertopian delusion that the have-nots & have-a-littles can stand against the power of great wealth on an individual basis, one at a time. They abandoned Unions & declared that Govt was the problem, not the answer. They fell for every wedge issue the GOP offered up, too. Us against them. Small town vs urban. White against brown. Middle class against the mooching welfare queens. Native born against immigrants. Freedom lovers against evil regimented socialism. The list goes on forever.

But it must be Dems' fault, because they haven't fixed it. Never mind that they can't if people don't vote for them. Never mind that they've been losing at top down class warfare waged ruthlessly by the GOP. Never mind that the middle class won't win back the benefits of the share of income they've lost to the tippy top other than through taxes & redistribution into shared public goods & resources.

 

[HomerJS]

Envision a booming city with a strong middle class, a number of factories, and a relatively good life. Yes, there is lots of hard work, but, the pay is good and you can raise a family on 1 income with little education.

Now, imagine if 100% of all the industry were to disappear.
As the jobs dissapear, about 1/3 to 1/4 of the population moves somewhere else. A bunch of people are forced to retire since all the local opportunities are gone and their bodies are tired and worn out for decades of hard work.

Neo-Liberal "Elite" Democrats come in and offer training ... but, the catch is, the jobs they offer to train for pay 1/4 to 1/2 what they made at their job before the factory closed. Or, they offer training for jobs that don't exist there. These people have roots there and want to stay put, so moving to some other part of the world to follow a job that pays less than they used to make is not really a good option.

Republicans talk about how good "it used to be" and "values" and even though many of the folks don't buy into the republican bullshit either .... they can at least relate to many of the republican candidates.


The question is, why are mainstream democrats ignoring all the small towns and main streets that have lost their income streams due to outsourcing and automation?

So they were willing to believe Trump's bullshit "I'm going to bring your old jobs back"?. Now after 2 years even though most of us knew, its been proven he is full of crap, they will buy in again?

 

[Homerboy]

So they were willing to believe Trump's bullshit "I'm going to bring your old jobs back"?. Now after 2 years even though most of us knew, its been proven he is full of crap, they will buy in again?

I live in this fabled "heartland" or whatever the hell the OP is calling it.
Yes... yes, there is a significant likelihood that those outside the major metropolitan areas will still buy it.

 

[HomerJS]

I live in this fabled "heartland" or whatever the hell the OP is calling it.
Yes... yes, there is a significant likelihood that those outside the major metropolitan areas will still buy it.

Then why do people insist on blaming Dems ignoring the heartland when it seems pretty clear the heartland just want to be lied to.

How about pointing out this scenario

Republicans cut taxes for the rich
Deficit blows up.
Republicans shout OMG the deficit, we are so concerned about long term debt we need to cut your social security and medicare.
Democrats come in forced to fix, economy gets better.
Goto start

This cycle has already repeated itself twice since 1980 and those heartland people don't see it DIRECTLY effects them???

 

[JSt0rm]

It doesn't matter. The red areas feed you. Without them, you'd have no milk.

Yes, blue areas have more population, but red areas have more heartland work ethic.

I'm an Independent and I know this.

Yes, Democrats won the House in 2018, but they still have heartland problems. Talk about jobs, healthcare, etc.

god damn you are dumb. California feeds you as well. As does florida and a bunch of other states. Why even bring this up as something to be proud about?

 

[hal2kilo]

Then why do people insist on blaming Dems ignoring the heartland when it seems pretty clear the heartland just want to be lied to.

How about pointing out this scenario

Republicans cut taxes for the rich
Deficit blows up.
Republicans shout OMG the deficit, we are so concerned about long term debt we need to cut your social security and medicare.
Democrats come in forced to fix, economy gets better.
Goto start

This cycle has already repeated itself twice since 1980 and those heartland people don't see it DIRECTLY effects them???

Yea, but then they come back with the usual to scare them into voting the Repubs back in cause abortion, guns, gays, beat out economics in the cons mindset.
EDIT: oops! forgot brown immigrants.