The economy- I'm afraid

[JeffreyLebowski]

Originally posted by: rudder
It's bad... but it will correct itself eventually. Instead of every American spending 150% of their yearly income... maybe we will start to save more and not feel the need for 5000 sq feet of living space and driving a 10mpg tank down the highway. We have been living high on the hog. A lot of people will get taken down a notch and maybe the next time a recession looms... people might actually have some money in savings to ride the bad times.

Problem is a lot of people are at a point now to where they have no way of staying afloat. They have to borrow to keep going. It's a never ending cycle that will continue to spiral down the drain. They will eventually land on Gov assistance programs, but with less people working and paying taxes, less money is available to fund those programs. So raise taxes, now the people that were barely making it are taxed to the point where they can't make ends meet so they get on Gov assistance programs, and it continues.

Essentially greed dug us a big hole and we will eventually all be laying in it when the foreigners come in and cover us up and take over.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: herm0016
its not nearly as bad as the media wants you to think.

That's right, it's worse. I work in the financial trenches, and IMO the media is glossing over how bad it really is.
You'll find out when it reaches whatever industry you work in.

lol who is the one fear mongering now?

:roll:

Home Prices Post Record Decline

Consumers too deeply in debt to save the economy

Mortgage applications continue to fall

Fannie Mae CEO: home prices will keep falling

The next building bust: Credit crunch hitting commercial construction

Ford sees more losses as $4 gas 'here to stay'

These are just recent headlines from one source. I could go on and on an on here. Granted, many people will do well throughout this. The economy always rolls on, with some still doing well when times are bad, and some still do poorly even when times are good. That's not unusual.
But it's hardly fear-mongering to point out that the economy is in trouble when it is in fact in trouble. If you want to be stupid and ignore the signs, that's fine, I don't expect anything more from you. But think of it this way... McOwen looked bad because he was doomsaying when times were good. You'll be looked at no differently than him if you insist on believing that everything is rosy when times are bad.

Yea because the US economy is comprised solely of the housing related industry. Just because you chose a shitty career and it's in the shitter doesn't mean everyone else isn't doing fine.

There will not be an official recession.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: herm0016
its not nearly as bad as the media wants you to think.

That's right, it's worse. I work in the financial trenches, and IMO the media is glossing over how bad it really is.
You'll find out when it reaches whatever industry you work in.

lol who is the one fear mongering now?

:roll:

Home Prices Post Record Decline

Consumers too deeply in debt to save the economy

Mortgage applications continue to fall

Fannie Mae CEO: home prices will keep falling

The next building bust: Credit crunch hitting commercial construction

Ford sees more losses as $4 gas 'here to stay'

These are just recent headlines from one source. I could go on and on an on here. Granted, many people will do well throughout this. The economy always rolls on, with some still doing well when times are bad, and some still do poorly even when times are good. That's not unusual.
But it's hardly fear-mongering to point out that the economy is in trouble when it is in fact in trouble. If you want to be stupid and ignore the signs, that's fine, I don't expect anything more from you. But think of it this way... McOwen looked bad because he was doomsaying when times were good. You'll be looked at no differently than him if you insist on believing that everything is rosy when times are bad.

Yea because the US economy is comprised solely of the housing related industry. Just because you chose a shitty career and it's in the shitter doesn't mean everyone else isn't doing fine.

There will not be an official recession.

You're a moron. Thanks for the wise words, Dave. :roll:

 

[vi edit]

I'm just really concerned about how screwed Gen-X got when it comes to buying power.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/...ion-x-retirement_N.htm

 

[Jhill]

I am not saying this will happen at all but if this guy is right then shit will hit the fan.

http://www.businessandmedia.or...08/20080521145247.aspx

It's pure speculation but 10+ for a gallon of gas will pretty much hose us until we find away to adapt. Can you imagine what that will do to the cost of groceries and other items that are trucked or shipped?

 

[MiniDoom]

well, the defense industry is doing alright for now.

 

[Baked]

Stop watching the News, it's a load of government propaganda shit.

 

[kranky]

The people who didn't spend everything when times were good should have a cushion to get them through. I just don't think there are very many of them.

I've always been known as the "saver" among my friends. Didn't move up to bigger houses like my friends did. Didn't go on $10,000 vacations like they did. Didn't buy new cars. If we were going to the bar on a weekend, I wouldn't go if they were going to a place where everyone was going to drop $100 before leaving.

Now two of them have asked me to "help them out" while they are in between jobs and broke. And I'm going to lose two good friends over this, because I'm not going to give them money as long as they still have a house full of "stuff".

It's actually going to be to the long-term benefit of the country for there to be some tough times. We need more of an attitude of self-reliance. I only hope it's not going to be too tough.

 

[bonkers325]

the economy is definitely taking a turn for the worse.

OPEC's currency of choice is the US dollar, which has been falling in value for a few years already. falling dollar + rising oil = double whammy on the US economy. combined with the crappy credit crisis due to retarded lending practices, the economy will be hurting for a while longer (who knows how long)

but as long as OPEC maintains the USD as their currency of choice, the US economy will not "crash".

 

[Eeezee]

4 more years of grad school FTW

Also, spending half of that time working in Switzerland FTWMFW

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: bonkers325
the economy is definitely taking a turn for the worse.

OPEC's currency of choice is the US dollar, which has been falling in value for a few years already. falling dollar + rising oil = double whammy on the US economy. combined with the crappy credit crisis due to retarded lending practices, the economy will be hurting for a while longer (who knows how long)

but as long as OPEC maintains the USD as their currency of choice, the US economy will not "crash".

doesn't a falling dollar mean increase in exports? that is bad for the US economy?

 

[Eeezee]

Originally posted by: bonkers325
the economy is definitely taking a turn for the worse.

OPEC's currency of choice is the US dollar, which has been falling in value for a few years already. falling dollar + rising oil = double whammy on the US economy. combined with the crappy credit crisis due to retarded lending practices, the economy will be hurting for a while longer (who knows how long)

but as long as OPEC maintains the USD as their currency of choice, the US economy will not "crash".

And what of the talk of OPEC switching to foreign currencies?

 

[wasssup]

the stock market is scary right now...wished i sold off my stocks a few weeks ago...

 

[vi edit]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: bonkers325
the economy is definitely taking a turn for the worse.

OPEC's currency of choice is the US dollar, which has been falling in value for a few years already. falling dollar + rising oil = double whammy on the US economy. combined with the crappy credit crisis due to retarded lending practices, the economy will be hurting for a while longer (who knows how long)

but as long as OPEC maintains the USD as their currency of choice, the US economy will not "crash".

doesn't a falling dollar mean increase in exports? that is bad for the US economy?

Outside of grains, construction equipment, and military equipment, what manufacturering is left here to export?

 

[Eeezee]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: bonkers325
the economy is definitely taking a turn for the worse.

OPEC's currency of choice is the US dollar, which has been falling in value for a few years already. falling dollar + rising oil = double whammy on the US economy. combined with the crappy credit crisis due to retarded lending practices, the economy will be hurting for a while longer (who knows how long)

but as long as OPEC maintains the USD as their currency of choice, the US economy will not "crash".

doesn't a falling dollar mean increase in exports? that is bad for the US economy?

Sure, increase in exports would be nice, but we're not a primarily exporting nation in the first place. Maybe it will help revitalize our manufacturing capabilities.

It means an increased cost of imports, which is of critical importance. How much of what you use in your life was made outside of the US? Would that be approximately every luxury item?

 

[Eeezee]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: herm0016
its not nearly as bad as the media wants you to think.

That's right, it's worse. I work in the financial trenches, and IMO the media is glossing over how bad it really is.
You'll find out when it reaches whatever industry you work in.

lol who is the one fear mongering now?

:roll:

Home Prices Post Record Decline

Consumers too deeply in debt to save the economy

Mortgage applications continue to fall

Fannie Mae CEO: home prices will keep falling

The next building bust: Credit crunch hitting commercial construction

Ford sees more losses as $4 gas 'here to stay'

These are just recent headlines from one source. I could go on and on an on here. Granted, many people will do well throughout this. The economy always rolls on, with some still doing well when times are bad, and some still do poorly even when times are good. That's not unusual.
But it's hardly fear-mongering to point out that the economy is in trouble when it is in fact in trouble. If you want to be stupid and ignore the signs, that's fine, I don't expect anything more from you. But think of it this way... McOwen looked bad because he was doomsaying when times were good. You'll be looked at no differently than him if you insist on believing that everything is rosy when times are bad.

Yea because the US economy is comprised solely of the housing related industry. Just because you chose a shitty career and it's in the shitter doesn't mean everyone else isn't doing fine.

There will not be an official recession.

It's so nice that you have a crystal ball and can guarantee that the economy is in great shape. I wish I could be blissfully ignorant, too. You're lucky.

 

[bonkers325]

Originally posted by: Eeezee

Originally posted by: bonkers325
the economy is definitely taking a turn for the worse.

OPEC's currency of choice is the US dollar, which has been falling in value for a few years already. falling dollar + rising oil = double whammy on the US economy. combined with the crappy credit crisis due to retarded lending practices, the economy will be hurting for a while longer (who knows how long)

but as long as OPEC maintains the USD as their currency of choice, the US economy will not "crash".

And what of the talk of OPEC switching to foreign currencies?

i dont think the US government would let that happen as it would deal a major blow to america's economic power. not to sound P&N'ish, but our military position in the middle east makes it difficult for OPEC to do anything about the USD as their main currency.

OPEC was going to switch currencies in the late 70's, but when Reagan took office the dollar picked up value and OPEC dropped talks about converting their cash reserves. hopefully when the new president takes office, a similar situation will occur.

 

[Eeezee]

Originally posted by: xboxist
America is on the verge of mirroring 1985 alternate-timeline Hill Valley, no doubt.

I can't imagine Hell being much worse!

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: vi edit

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: bonkers325
the economy is definitely taking a turn for the worse.

OPEC's currency of choice is the US dollar, which has been falling in value for a few years already. falling dollar + rising oil = double whammy on the US economy. combined with the crappy credit crisis due to retarded lending practices, the economy will be hurting for a while longer (who knows how long)

but as long as OPEC maintains the USD as their currency of choice, the US economy will not "crash".

doesn't a falling dollar mean increase in exports? that is bad for the US economy?

Outside of grains, construction equipment, and military equipment, what manufacturering is left here to export?

Ipods, intel chips, fords, GMs, etc

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Eeezee

Originally posted by: bonkers325
the economy is definitely taking a turn for the worse.

OPEC's currency of choice is the US dollar, which has been falling in value for a few years already. falling dollar + rising oil = double whammy on the US economy. combined with the crappy credit crisis due to retarded lending practices, the economy will be hurting for a while longer (who knows how long)

but as long as OPEC maintains the USD as their currency of choice, the US economy will not "crash".

And what of the talk of OPEC switching to foreign currencies?

It doesn't matter. The currency makes no difference.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: herm0016
its not nearly as bad as the media wants you to think.

That's right, it's worse. I work in the financial trenches, and IMO the media is glossing over how bad it really is.
You'll find out when it reaches whatever industry you work in.

lol who is the one fear mongering now?

:roll:

Home Prices Post Record Decline

Consumers too deeply in debt to save the economy

Mortgage applications continue to fall

Fannie Mae CEO: home prices will keep falling

The next building bust: Credit crunch hitting commercial construction

Ford sees more losses as $4 gas 'here to stay'

These are just recent headlines from one source. I could go on and on an on here. Granted, many people will do well throughout this. The economy always rolls on, with some still doing well when times are bad, and some still do poorly even when times are good. That's not unusual.
But it's hardly fear-mongering to point out that the economy is in trouble when it is in fact in trouble. If you want to be stupid and ignore the signs, that's fine, I don't expect anything more from you. But think of it this way... McOwen looked bad because he was doomsaying when times were good. You'll be looked at no differently than him if you insist on believing that everything is rosy when times are bad.

Yea because the US economy is comprised solely of the housing related industry. Just because you chose a shitty career and it's in the shitter doesn't mean everyone else isn't doing fine.

There will not be an official recession.

You're a moron. Thanks for the wise words, Dave. :roll:

I remember when you thought I was full of it for being such a doomsdayer wrt housing.

I do think we are in a recession, not in the technical Q 2s of negative growth, but in just the general crappy position the economy is in. Additionally, financial areas are getting hammered. However, the primary and secondary ABS markets are starting to loosen up a little bit, 30-year rates are finally coming down, and consumer ABS is starting to become more reasonable. all of which will lead to a general easing of credit.

Things will probably get worse for a while, but I don't think we'll get anywhere near a depression.

 

[jjzelinski]

J80 represents the worst of what knee-jerk "conservatism" has to offer.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Eeezee

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: bonkers325
the economy is definitely taking a turn for the worse.

OPEC's currency of choice is the US dollar, which has been falling in value for a few years already. falling dollar + rising oil = double whammy on the US economy. combined with the crappy credit crisis due to retarded lending practices, the economy will be hurting for a while longer (who knows how long)

but as long as OPEC maintains the USD as their currency of choice, the US economy will not "crash".

doesn't a falling dollar mean increase in exports? that is bad for the US economy?

Sure, increase in exports would be nice, but we're not a primarily exporting nation in the first place. Maybe it will help revitalize our manufacturing capabilities.

It means an increased cost of imports, which is of critical importance. How much of what you use in your life was made outside of the US? Would that be approximately every luxury item?

i'm talking about increases in existing exports merely because of the increase in demand due to cheaper dollar. This is how China is sustaining a high growth rate - artificially keeping their currency cheap.

 

[Eeezee]

Originally posted by: bonkers325

Originally posted by: Eeezee

Originally posted by: bonkers325
the economy is definitely taking a turn for the worse.

OPEC's currency of choice is the US dollar, which has been falling in value for a few years already. falling dollar + rising oil = double whammy on the US economy. combined with the crappy credit crisis due to retarded lending practices, the economy will be hurting for a while longer (who knows how long)

but as long as OPEC maintains the USD as their currency of choice, the US economy will not "crash".

And what of the talk of OPEC switching to foreign currencies?

i dont think the US government would let that happen as it would deal a major blow to america's economic power. not to sound P&N'ish, but our military position in the middle east makes it difficult for OPEC to do anything about the USD as their main currency.

OPEC was going to switch currencies in the late 70's, but when Reagan took office the dollar picked up value and OPEC dropped talks about converting their cash reserves. hopefully when the new president takes office, a similar situation will occur.

But they have been speaking openly of converting to the Euro. The blunders in Iraq didn't scare anyone.

Besides, Saudi Arabia is the head of OPEC, openly wants to switch to the Euro, and they're our allies. Are we going to invade them, too?

What you're suggesting is that OPEC is afraid that we'll invade all of its member nations, which are spread around the globe. No one is that stupid. If they switch the Euro, there's not a single thing we can do about it. We no longer have enough military clout to successfully take over the Middle Eastern members of OPEC, much less the rest of them.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: jjzelinski
J80 represents the worst of what knee-jerk "conservatism" has to offer.

I don't agree. He's usually got pretty good insights, he just doesn't think things will be as bad as many say.