The end of AMD

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JumpingJack

Member
Mar 7, 2006
61
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Originally posted by: clarkey01
We must congratulate AMD for giving it's best. If anyone on this board feels they could of done better in the last 3 years then it's time for a reality check.

It's very well someone on a board saying " AMD sux, they did nothing for 4 years, borrrring" . I fully believe they have tried there best, why wouldn't they ? If they come short then why is there an outcry and teasing? Intel fans do know there beloved company will only raises prices if AMD failed?

What AMD need is someone with big pockets and knowledge of the industry....IBM

Yeah, this is a good point -- by itself, without the inevitable comparision to the other guy -- the Barcelona/Agena is a success. It was a massive overhaul, retaining the basic structure of the K8 which, clock for clock, did in fact improve significantly IPC wise over the prior generation product, based on data a healthy 15% IPC per core. Couple with a very complex native design, AMD has nothing to be ashamed of in this regard.

Unfortunately, the CPU industry is a duopoly, established inthe x86 world and really only two players with the IP and substance to play (I don't really see easy entry for any other x86 manufacturer). As a result, the CPU will be compared to the other guy and in a 2 horse race, 2nd place is last place .... hence the disappointment which comes from higher expectations (we waited over a year for this thing).

Jack
 

gOJDO

Member
Jan 31, 2007
92
0
0
I wonder if nVidia can join the x86 race. I imagine nVidia to buy VIA, thus to get the x86 license without the need to brag about it. I'm sure nV is capable of making competitive CPU, if not the best.
 

Keysplayr

Elite Member
Jan 16, 2003
21,209
50
91
I was under the impression that the x86 license is not transferable. If Nvidia buys VIA, they don't automatically get the x86 license.
 

clarkey01

Diamond Member
Feb 4, 2004
3,419
1
0
Originally posted by: JumpingJack
Originally posted by: clarkey01
We must congratulate AMD for giving it's best. If anyone on this board feels they could of done better in the last 3 years then it's time for a reality check.

It's very well someone on a board saying " AMD sux, they did nothing for 4 years, borrrring" . I fully believe they have tried there best, why wouldn't they ? If they come short then why is there an outcry and teasing? Intel fans do know there beloved company will only raises prices if AMD failed?

What AMD need is someone with big pockets and knowledge of the industry....IBM

Yeah, this is a good point -- by itself, without the inevitable comparision to the other guy -- the Barcelona/Agena is a success. It was a massive overhaul, retaining the basic structure of the K8 which, clock for clock, did in fact improve significantly IPC wise over the prior generation product, based on data a healthy 15% IPC per core. Couple with a very complex native design, AMD has nothing to be ashamed of in this regard.

Unfortunately, the CPU industry is a duopoly, established inthe x86 world and really only two players with the IP and substance to play (I don't really see easy entry for any other x86 manufacturer). As a result, the CPU will be compared to the other guy and in a 2 horse race, 2nd place is last place .... hence the disappointment which comes from higher expectations (we waited over a year for this thing).

Jack


Talking alot of sense here
 

clarkey01

Diamond Member
Feb 4, 2004
3,419
1
0
Imagine an AMD with the workforce the size of Intel's and Intel's pockets.........

Intel has done a top notch job, no question, but then again its not like it's an even playing field ...But unfortunately this is called life, IRCC both started out at the same time, one has progressed immensely, one has progressed not as immensely, therefore Intel has nothing to owe AMD, it's been done by themselves, sure there are some cries about Intel straggling the market and TBH I'm not in the loop so I cant comment further on that.

With wealth, brand awareness , experience, Intel can afford to have a Prescott , a slightly under performing, power chugging BBQ which can't hold a candle to a K8 ..Where if AMD "screw up" i.e a chip which has fallen below expectation's and seems to lacking behind the current competition then it's crucified . Talk is so cheap, but I dont see the fuss? what has AMD done wrong ? Someone has to come second, like it or not? this is the business world and it's not fatal but it's a punch in the face no doubt...

we're all here crying & some of us teasing about " It's the end"....To those who have towed that line I wouldn't trust you to make any predictions or investments with my money...

You get the impression some folk will always tempt fate or force there fantasies, I doubt ppl who say AMD are dead truely believe this.

I have this rig for my gaming and a operton rig for a media server, two AMD laptops and an old 2000AXP rig for some light work...Just so ppl know that I'm no a whore for anyone.
 

SickBeast

Lifer
Jul 21, 2000
14,377
19
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Originally posted by: CTho9305
Unfortunately I know almost nothing about the ATI GPU architecture (nvidia has some really good presentations on their GPUs).

Well...look at it this way:

The AMD 2900XT has 320 'stream processors', compared to the 8800GTS which has only 112 (the original had 96). The 2900XT runs at a clockspeed near 700mhz, whereas the GTS runs below 600mhz. The XT has a full 512-bit memory bus, compared to only 320-bit on the GTS. The XT outputs considerably more heat and uses significantly more power than the GTS (especially at idle).

The GTS *generally* outperforms the XT. From what I understand, the XT uses a weaker, less efficient type of 'stream processor', which makes it suited only for a relatively specific type of programming. Really, when you think about it, the P4 was like this--it was great a video encoding and not much else.

Your comments re: the L1 cache and such on the P4 are interesting. Didn't the P4 have much more L2 cache compared to the X64 though? Wasn't it also manufactured on a more advanced process?

Perhaps the 'narrower pipeline' is the critical element. Doesn't the Phenom have a 'narrower pipeline' than the C2D?
 

SickBeast

Lifer
Jul 21, 2000
14,377
19
81
Originally posted by: VirtualLarry
Originally posted by: SickBeast
They have Fusion and maybe 45nm to look forward to, but intel will surely have an answer to both. Not only that, but I would rather a 'C2D' derivative in my future CPU instead of a 'Phenom' derivative.
Why would you say that? There's nothing inherently inferior, that I can see, about the Phenom design. The primary problem is the yields and the Ghz that they can clock to. If they were competitive in that dept, their design is definately also competetive.
Well, from what I understand, the C2D can execute 4 instructions-per-clock compared to 3 on the Phenom. The power consumption and heat output on the Phenom are too high for my liking.

I do like the fact that Phenom has an integrated memory controller. I've heard it said that it creates a 'snappier' environment in Windows.

Perhaps the design of the Phenom is what's holding it back in terms of Ghz. I find it interesting that people are hitting 3.4ghz on an X2, yet the Phenom cries when you try to take it past 2.4.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
59
91
Originally posted by: clarkey01
What AMD need is someone with big pockets and knowledge of the industry....IBM

Cuz their pockets and industry savy did wonders for Cyrix and Apple!
 

Acanthus

Lifer
Aug 28, 2001
19,915
2
76
ostif.org
Originally posted by: SickBeast
Originally posted by: VirtualLarry
Originally posted by: SickBeast
They have Fusion and maybe 45nm to look forward to, but intel will surely have an answer to both. Not only that, but I would rather a 'C2D' derivative in my future CPU instead of a 'Phenom' derivative.
Why would you say that? There's nothing inherently inferior, that I can see, about the Phenom design. The primary problem is the yields and the Ghz that they can clock to. If they were competitive in that dept, their design is definately also competetive.
Well, from what I understand, the C2D can execute 4 instructions-per-clock compared to 3 on the Phenom. The power consumption and heat output on the Phenom are too high for my liking.

I do like the fact that Phenom has an integrated memory controller. I've heard it said that it creates a 'snappier' environment in Windows.

Perhaps the design of the Phenom is what's holding it back in terms of Ghz. I find it interesting that people are hitting 3.4ghz on an X2, yet the Phenom cries when you try to take it past 2.4.

Im jut hoping the get the design issues sorted out quick. AMD is not making any money at the bottom end.
 

AlabamaCajun

Member
Mar 11, 2005
126
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0
The process on the X2s has had time to mature, Phenom is just a baby in terms of maturity. If and when AMD gets it right, you'll see them move up. The C1 stepping has not been released yet.

New tech is under development but it is under closed wraps. What I know of it so far is that the cache latencies are going to drop and shrink in size.We might see 1M L2 and 4-8M L3 :sweet. Downside is AMD has to get 45nm rolling to make it work as this newer tech does not work at 65nm.

On the Penryn tech I don't know all the ins/outs but Intel may already be using similar tech on the 45nm stuff being released. All the people buying up Q6600s might be in for a shock when Intel releases the 45nm replacements but it's too early to tell with only the extremes out now that are already awesome performers.
 

Acanthus

Lifer
Aug 28, 2001
19,915
2
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ostif.org
Originally posted by: AlabamaCajun
The process on the X2s has had time to mature, Phenom is just a baby in terms of maturity. If and when AMD gets it right, you'll see them move up. The C1 stepping has not been released yet.

New tech is under development but it is under closed wraps. What I know of it so far is that the cache latencies are going to drop and shrink in size.We might see 1M L2 and 4-8M L3 :sweet. Downside is AMD has to get 45nm rolling to make it work as this newer tech does not work at 65nm.

On the Penryn tech I don't know all the ins/outs but Intel may already be using similar tech on the 45nm stuff being released. All the people buying up Q6600s might be in for a shock when Intel releases the 45nm replacements but it's too early to tell with only the extremes out now that are already awesome performers.

Its basically more cache, a higher official FSB, and SSE4.

SSE4 aside, you can predict pretty reliably where the gains will be.
 

ronnn

Diamond Member
May 22, 2003
3,918
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Originally posted by: AlabamaCajun
The process on the X2s has had time to mature, Phenom is just a baby in terms of maturity. If and when AMD gets it right, you'll see them move up. The C1 stepping has not been released yet.

New tech is under development but it is under closed wraps. What I know of it so far is that the cache latencies are going to drop and shrink in size.We might see 1M L2 and 4-8M L3 :sweet. Downside is AMD has to get 45nm rolling to make it work as this newer tech does not work at 65nm.

On the Penryn tech I don't know all the ins/outs but Intel may already be using similar tech on the 45nm stuff being released. All the people buying up Q6600s might be in for a shock when Intel releases the 45nm replacements but it's too early to tell with only the extremes out now that are already awesome performers.

I hope you are right! Right now it looks like the ati side of the business is doing alright, but will likely be dragged down by the amd side.
 

undeclared

Senior member
Oct 24, 2005
498
0
86
You seem to think that because they can't beat the best they won't survive.

They survive off HP, IBM, Dell, etc.. more than they do off the enthusiast consumers which make up like 10% of the market.

I'm not worried. I think they will have a comeback, but it will be a long time.
 

BlvdKing

Golden Member
Jun 7, 2000
1,173
0
0
I remember someone in a Best Buy (I worked there for a short time) told me that AMD was going out of business soon. That was over 3 years ago! When will people realize that there is plenty of room for more than one CPU manufacturer in this industry?
 

Acanthus

Lifer
Aug 28, 2001
19,915
2
76
ostif.org
Originally posted by: xtwells
You seem to think that because they can't beat the best they won't survive.

They survive off HP, IBM, Dell, etc.. more than they do off the enthusiast consumers which make up like 10% of the market.

I'm not worried. I think they will have a comeback, but it will be a long time.

They are selling to them below cost.

Every single division at AMD is losing money...

You guys sound like the people that were convinced 3dfx would never go belly up.
 

CTho9305

Elite Member
Jul 26, 2000
9,214
1
81
SickBeast, we're waaaay off the original topic. It might be worth starting follow-up thread so people who don't want to read wild business/financial speculation by tech geeks see the actual tech stuff .

Originally posted by: SickBeast
Originally posted by: VirtualLarry
Originally posted by: SickBeast
They have Fusion and maybe 45nm to look forward to, but intel will surely have an answer to both. Not only that, but I would rather a 'C2D' derivative in my future CPU instead of a 'Phenom' derivative.
Why would you say that? There's nothing inherently inferior, that I can see, about the Phenom design. The primary problem is the yields and the Ghz that they can clock to. If they were competitive in that dept, their design is definately also competetive.
Well, from what I understand, the C2D can execute 4 instructions-per-clock compared to 3 on the Phenom.
It's not as simple as that. The K7-like architecture of Phenom is actually quite different from the PPro-like architecture of Core2. I had a drawn out debate with dmens about issue widths - read this post... if you don't want to read the whole thing, at least read the paragraph starting with "Older Intel CPUs" and the one after it. The mix of execution units is also very different - for a particularly striking example of the potential for highly-optimized code that takes full advantage of K8's integer execution units, see this thread.

Originally posted by: SickBeast
Originally posted by: CTho9305
Unfortunately I know almost nothing about the ATI GPU architecture (nvidia has some really good presentations on their GPUs).

Well...look at it this way:

The AMD 2900XT has 320 'stream processors', compared to the 8800GTS which has only 112 (the original had 96). The 2900XT runs at a clockspeed near 700mhz, whereas the GTS runs below 600mhz. The XT has a full 512-bit memory bus, compared to only 320-bit on the GTS. The XT outputs considerably more heat and uses significantly more power than the GTS (especially at idle).

The GTS *generally* outperforms the XT. From what I understand, the XT uses a weaker, less efficient type of 'stream processor', which makes it suited only for a relatively specific type of programming. Really, when you think about it, the P4 was like this--it was great a video encoding and not much else.

I don't know enough about GPUs to really comment. These presentations are excellent. Lecture 8 on the hardware has a good set of slides. It says that the nvidia GPU internally operates at 2x frequency (1.35 GHz). If there's an equivalent ATI presentation/lecture someone knows about, I'd love to read it.


Your comments re: the L1 cache and such on the P4 are interesting. Didn't the P4 have much more L2 cache compared to the X64 though? Wasn't it also manufactured on a more advanced process?

L2 is great for marketing, like RAM on GPUs has historically been ("WOW! This GeForce 4MX has 512MB RAM - it must demolish that 256MB GeForce 6600 and even costs less!" or something). In the real world, it tends not to make as much difference as people might expect - every doubling of the cache size buys you only a few (mid single-digits) percent performance. I didn't search long, but take a look at this review and compare the highlighted chip to the P4 550 - if you subtract 2% from the performance difference due to the clock speed change, you can see that the extra cache doesn't generally make a huge difference (especially when you're talking as much extra die area as another core or 2). The other thing to remember is that this review was on P4, which likely had an abysmal L1 hit rate; a more normal architecture with a 32KB or 64KB L1 cache is going to go to the L2 less often. You also have to be careful with benchmarks to make sure that they haven't been optimized for a particular L2 size (a crafty evil person might set up a scene's geometry to not fit in a 2MB cache, but to fit in a 4MB cache). I guess in the real world, L1 hit rates are decent, and programs that don't fit in X MB generally don't fit in 2X MB either.

I'm sure someone could put together a timeline of CPUs and manufacturing processes. I don't know off the top of my head which processes were used when on which chips at what time. Intel generally moved to new processes sooner though.

Perhaps the 'narrower pipeline' is the critical element. Doesn't the Phenom have a 'narrower pipeline' than the C2D?

See above (the first part of my reply). More thoughts: It's probably harder to sustain peak IPC on C2 because the Intel architecture has things like decode slot restrictions (if you hit a slightly-fancy instruction, it has to be handled as the first instruction decoded during a cycle, whereas the AMD architectures can generally handle slightly-fancy instructions in any decode slot; both architectures can only decode a single instruction at a time if it's super-fancy ("microcoded")). AMD also provides a larger set of execution units - including 3 integer ALUs and 3 AGEN units; IIRC, Intel's architectures provide fewer of both (unfortunately I can't find a block diagram right now and don't want to go hunting through papers to find one). That probably helps them reduce power/area/complexity. Routines that are highly-optimized for either architecture are likely to perform relatively poorly on the other (again, see above). It would be interesting to see if the performance changes much for real-world code when compiled with the PGI compiler, and if 64-bit software was used rather than 32-bit software. When I think about it, things like C2's "stack engine" probably help it out more in 32-bit code than 64-bit code (due to fewer register spills in 64-bit mode)...

From here:
The average performance improvement we have seen from Athlon 64 FX-62 equaled 16%, while Core 2 Extreme X6800 demonstrated only 10% average performance boost.
While that's not enough to have K8 beat C2, it takes a pretty big chunk out of a 15-20% lead.
 

Zstream

Diamond Member
Oct 24, 2005
3,395
277
136
Originally posted by: SickBeast
Originally posted by: VirtualLarry
Originally posted by: SickBeast
They have Fusion and maybe 45nm to look forward to, but intel will surely have an answer to both. Not only that, but I would rather a 'C2D' derivative in my future CPU instead of a 'Phenom' derivative.
Why would you say that? There's nothing inherently inferior, that I can see, about the Phenom design. The primary problem is the yields and the Ghz that they can clock to. If they were competitive in that dept, their design is definately also competetive.
Well, from what I understand, the C2D can execute 4 instructions-per-clock compared to 3 on the Phenom. The power consumption and heat output on the Phenom are too high for my liking.

I do like the fact that Phenom has an integrated memory controller. I've heard it said that it creates a 'snappier' environment in Windows.

Perhaps the design of the Phenom is what's holding it back in terms of Ghz. I find it interesting that people are hitting 3.4ghz on an X2, yet the Phenom cries when you try to take it past 2.4.

Where do you get your information from? The phenom overclocks way past 2.4ghz with ease.

Yeah click me because I hate bs

 

Viditor

Diamond Member
Oct 25, 1999
3,290
0
0
Great post Ctho!!

Acanthus...
Just a thought for you. If AMD actually were actually selling below cost, then the more they sold, the more they would lose...this just isn't the case.
 

Duvie

Elite Member
Feb 5, 2001
16,215
0
71
Originally posted by: Viditor
Originally posted by: videoclone
*Talks of CEO Hector Ruiz resignation.

What difference does that make?

*Mounting debt and running at a loss each quater

Debt is actually reducing, not mounting...Q3 is down $200 Million from Q2. Also, since the Q3 report, AMD has increased their cash by 50% without increasing their debt (that's not counting sales of course).

*CPU range is uncompetitive at all level's with no real replacement for 2-3 years.

And yet sales are increasing...

*GPU's do not complete with there equally priced competition.

That's just wrong...

*AMD is having problems with 65nm, they'll struggle with even more leakage on 45nm, particularly without the Halfnium High-K dielectric gates Intel has incorporated. not until the second gen 45nm will they have High-k

In what way is AMD having problems with 65nm? They have no real leakage issues now, so what makes you think it will be worse?

*Add to that Intel's Nehalem architecture (with an integrated memory controller, matching AMD's final advantage over Intel) due out in 12 months, and AMD is toast.

You are assuming that:
1. CSI chips will come out perfect and on time
2. CSI platforms will come out perfect and on time
3. AMD will have no meaningful changes between now and then

Buh Bye realistically priced processors, Hello small future gains in performance and a grinding holt to the PC industry, especially in GPU's and how fast they advanced )

Sad days are in our future and Intel is to blame for holding AMD down long enough with bribes and blackmail until they released a superior product.

IMHO, that's never going to happen...in fact, because CPUs are becoming more and more commoditized, I predict that in 5 years we'll be seeing computer systems much faster than today's selling for $200 or so.

Edit: BTW, you are also forgetting that there is a lawsuit going to court very soon with a damages possibility that could range as high as $60 Billion. It probably won't get that far, but most analysts are still expecting a settlement from Intel in the range of $4 Billion or so...
That would make AMD just about debt free.

Response to the bold!

What do you mean! The last architecture got virtually no mhz gain over previous 90nm dual core chips. I think that says something. Also I think they questioned AMDs die size for sometimes considering INtel's has so much on die cache....

I think it is obvious the 65nm process which may have been a rush out the door to compete with INtel has some problems.

I agree with most of your other answers...

I also agree that INtel is in fact guilty of anti-monopolistic laws and is responsible for a large some of monetary damages...Hopefully that can give AMD some cash influx...Ofcourse we know the blood sucking parasite lawyers of INtel will be prepared to appeal to the end of time...at least in US courts where it will be far easier. AMD will likely get awards in the european union and asian courts far faster
 

NoSoup4You

Golden Member
Feb 12, 2007
1,253
6
81
AMD is one great product away from getting headed back in the right direction. The 3850/3870 is a good place to start. A Phenom Quadcore for ~$250 with an unlocked multiplier that will easily overclock to 3.0+Ghz would be another place to start. Sadly that sounds quite far off, and one product alone won't be enough. But just like anything else, it all has to start somewhere. On the other hand, if AMD can't get their shit together then adios amigo.

K8 and K10 won't be faster than Conroe, but they're far from non-competitive. My ancient X2 4400+ is still holding strong after a couple years and I remain gpu limited in every game I own. Crysis was supposed to be the game that forced everyone to abandon their X2's, but instead it's the same old story as with every other game: Gpu > all. I see huge increases in performance with Crysis just from overclocking my gpu from default speeds (513/792) up to 630/950, so I'm still getting more than adequate performance from my X2.
 

Viditor

Diamond Member
Oct 25, 1999
3,290
0
0
Originally posted by: Duvie

What do you mean! The last architecture got virtually no mhz gain over previous 90nm dual core chips. I think that says something. Also I think they questioned AMDs die size for sometimes considering INtel's has so much on die cache....

It does indeed...all I was saying is that it's not a leakage issue (like it has been in some other chips). I can't say with authority what the issue is, but there are several other probabilities...
1. Brisbane has a different type of cache than Windsor which has a higher latency.
2. Since you can't do an optical shrink when you get below 1u, the design of Brisbane must necessarily be different than Windsor.
3. With limited resources, I don't think AMD has spent very much effort in redesigning Brisbane to overcome any issues. My opinion is that they have been putting all of their efforts into getting K10 right instead.

I think it is obvious the 65nm process which may have been a rush out the door to compete with INtel has some problems.

See above...I think that just because there are issues, it doesn't mean that it's a process issue, in fact I think that process issues are far less likely.

I agree with most of your other answers...

I also agree that INtel is in fact guilty of anti-monopolistic laws and is responsible for a large some of monetary damages...Hopefully that can give AMD some cash influx...Ofcourse we know the blood sucking parasite lawyers of INtel will be prepared to appeal to the end of time...at least in US courts where it will be far easier. AMD will likely get awards in the european union and asian courts far faster

 

Aluvus

Platinum Member
Apr 27, 2006
2,913
1
0
Originally posted by: CTho9305
AMD also provides a larger set of execution units - including 3 integer ALUs and 3 AGEN units; IIRC, Intel's architectures provide fewer of both (unfortunately I can't find a block diagram right now and don't want to go hunting through papers to find one).

Ars has a block diagram (and an overview of the Core uarch) that AFAIK is accurate.
 

Acanthus

Lifer
Aug 28, 2001
19,915
2
76
ostif.org
Originally posted by: Viditor
Great post Ctho!!

Acanthus...
Just a thought for you. If AMD actually were actually selling below cost, then the more they sold, the more they would lose...this just isn't the case.

K, all is well at AMD.

$50 CPUs will keep them afloat im sure with US $10bln in debt looming overhead.

Phenom is a joke, and Intel will drive quad core prices down to the bargain bin too once 45nm gets rolling.

Im not an Intel fanboi, im looking at this from AMDs position. Where is their out? When will profitability return?

Look at the numbers, look at their stock price, look at their debt. Youd have to be retarded to think AMD is making money.

Hmm...

Open 11.00
Previous Close 10.83
Day's Range 10.60 - 11.02
52 - Week Range 10.60 - 23.00
11/23/07 - 12/15/06
Avg Volume (10 days) 19,977,196
Price / Earnings (TTM) --
Earnings Per Share(TTM) -3.99

Theyve lost $600,000,000 in the last 6 months.
 

gorion

Member
Feb 1, 2005
146
0
71
AMD is a business and like every business it needs to be profitable to avoid closing down.

AMD surely isn't the king of performance anymore. They couldn't be able to mantain their tech advance, but this won't necessarily mean that they will have to fail.

PC market is huge, and there is the space for another competitor beside Intel.
What AMD really need is something which makes money. They need CPUs which can make a profit and can allow them to fund their research. They don't need to be the best or the fastest CPU around, but just the right CPU for the right market.

The mainstream user won't really care if his PC runs a Phenom, a Core2 or a Venus processor. He wants a reasonably priced, fast PC.
AMD cannot survive only if it fails to deliver this kind of processors.

AMD also have the chance to integrate GPUs in a platform. Ideally, AMD can aim to supply a complete solution. This is very complex and probably AMD wasn't big enough to digest ATI when it bought them. However, now the focus for AMD should be to move towards an integrated system, something which Intel may have more troubles to develop.

I cannot see AMD failing any time soon, but they surely need a management change. They need someone who can lead AMD to deliver the right CPUs for each market, starting with the most profitables ones. Only that way AMD can compete with Intel
 
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