The Fermi Paradox

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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,114
136
Welcome back Woolfe!

I thought it was believed the reason we haven't seen many earth sized planets was due to sampling bias. Basically it's much easier for our methods to detect larger plants with relativyly short orbital periods.

Yes, that's a good point, and in fact astronomers are debating that, with some thinking we just need bigger, better telescopes to see more small rocky planets.

There are other problems though. Like that one earth sized planet we found at Proxima B. Unfortunately Proxima B is a red star (low energy), such that the only way to get sufficient light and heat is to be orbiting it at like half or less of Mercury's distance from our sun. Close enough that this planet is tidally locked with it's sun, like our moon is with earth, such that it's always day (boiling) on one side and always night (freezing) on the other. Also, ironically low energy stars have far more severe and frequent solar flares than larger stars.

All that wouldn't be so bad if red stars, which can have trillion+ year lifespans, weren't 70% of all stars in the galaxy. And the massive blue stars are another 10%. Those last a billion years or less before they nova, and they put out too much high frequency EM for their to be complex life orbiting around them while they last. That leaves the 20% that are mid sized yellow or yellow/white as possibilities.

All these filters - star type, planet size, planet composition, an unusually massive iron core, an unusually over-size moon, gobs of H2O, the lack of planet killing features like too much volcanism, and others make the probabilities of a given star system having life very tiny.

We know it's a low probability, but I suppose we won't know for sure how low until we can see more exo-planets.
 
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Feb 4, 2009
35,157
16,573
136
I am starting to believe (as I have said before and other posters have assisted) that faster than light travel is not possible and all life is just a flash in galactic terms. Basically at any moment there aren’t many advanced forms of life and we are all effectively bound to our birth planets. We never “hear” each other because we never exist in a similar location at a similar time.
 
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BonzaiDuck

Lifer
Jun 30, 2004
15,877
1,548
126
People must be blind! Of course there are aliens! They have lived and proliferate on this planet, and now they're trying to take over our government! Where do you think those crop circles in Red States came from?

The solution to the myopia -- Put Trump and Musk on a Space Force vessel and send them out for "deep sampling". But they won't likely find anything, because all those space aliens are right here! All of them less two!

They need to be replaced with human beings from anywhere!
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
15,197
13,449
146
I am starting to believe (as I have said before and other posters have assisted) that faster than light travel is not possible and all life is just a flash in galactic terms. Basically at any moment there aren’t many advanced forms of life and we are all effectively bound to our birth planets. We never “hear” each other because we never exist in a similar location at a similar time.
Plot twist: life and life bearing planets are very common, they're just procedurally generated and the simulation doesn't account for such long-range zoom. They'll render if we get closer to the host star.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,936
13,428
136
Listen, we got a sample size of one in regards to what Aliens could look like. Us.

In reality the only thing we know for a fact is that 1. the Universe burns entropy for complexity and 2. that in that gigantic furnace of creation we're an intermediate calculus towards whatever the end goal is.

I dont have the faculties to imagine what other creations of complexity is out there that might be comparable in magnitude to what we are but to fixate on "it" to be humanoid-like is sort of arrogant/Ignorant.

Right?
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
70,100
28,689
136
Listen, we got a sample size of one in regards to what Aliens could look like. Us.

In reality the only thing we know for a fact is that 1. the Universe burns entropy for complexity and 2. that in that gigantic furnace of creation we're an intermediate calculus towards whatever the end goal is.

I dont have the faculties to imagine what other creations of complexity is out there that might be comparable in magnitude to what we are but to fixate on "it" to be humanoid-like is sort of arrogant/Ignorant.

Right?
It makes for less uncomfortable TV.

 

RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
2,003
4,898
106
It's not like we can even see the features of the nearest Exoplanets. Let alone distant ones.
Never bet against Human engineers


A couple of thoughts that arose while reading the thread;
  • Dyson spheres are an extrapolation from classical tech/theory. Aliens would be using post-quantum tech. So I don't think we should be sure that there should be heaps of dyson spheres out there.
  • I have a feeling that there is a massive filter on the 'Technological civilisation' term on the Drakes equation. We are only 'technical' atm because of the Renaissance. And the Renaissance only happened in Europe because of a number of unique causes. Competing city states + a middle class (which only came about due to the Black Death in a Feudal setting) with spending power. These unique causes are sometimes mentioned as being a reason as to why China never had its own Renaissance.
  • I am also partial to the dark forest theory. Evolution is inherently a competitive endeavour, so competition in some form would be a common trait with aliens. I don't think its too far fetched to believe that an ultra competitive species escapes their gravity well and proceeds to lay waste to other forms of off world life. The one counter to this is the need for cooperation to escape the solar home at superluminal speeds. I suspect this will be a complex task exceeding the complexity of nuclear power stations which seems to be at the limit of current Human economic-engineering capabilities.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
15,185
10,740
136
Yes, that's a good point, and in fact astronomers are debating that, with some thinking we just need bigger, better telescopes to see more small rocky planets.

There are other problems though. Like that one earth sized planet we found at Proxima B. Unfortunately Proxima B is a red star (low energy), such that the only way to get sufficient light and heat is to be orbiting it at like half or less of Mercury's distance from our sun. Close enough that this planet is tidally locked with it's sun, like our moon is with earth, such that it's always day (boiling) on one side and always night (freezing) on the other. Also, ironically low energy stars have far more severe and frequent solar flares than larger stars.

All that wouldn't be so bad if red stars, which can have trillion+ year lifespans, weren't 70% of all stars in the galaxy. And the massive blue stars are another 10%. Those last a billion years or less before they nova, and they put out too much high frequency EM for their to be complex life orbiting around them while they last. That leaves the 20% that are mid sized yellow or yellow/white as possibilities.

All these filters - star type, planet size, planet composition, an unusually massive iron core, an unusually over-size moon, gobs of H2O, the lack of planet killing features like too much volcanism, and others make the probabilities of a given star system having life very tiny.

We know it's a low probability, but I suppose we won't know for sure how low until we can see more exo-planets.
Yeah, I agree, very small probability to produce intelligent life, but the are so many stars I believe the law of large numbers will eventually win. Especially with non-intelligent life. I think the bigger filters are how you actually go from no life to life and how you go from single cell to multiple cell organisms. It appears that both of these only happened once in earth.

It wasn't that long ago that we didn't have proof of exo planets and that we thought there were many more blue stars as a ratio than they are.

This says that Venus likely has a similar iron core, but it's lack of convection that inhibits the magnetic field. I do wish we'd study Venus more.

 
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Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,150
6,317
126
I'm suspicious that that's an idealised take on the whole endevour. I mean, it's what ideally _should_ happen, but is it how actual existing science works in reality? Especially for sciences that involve studying human behaviour, rather than inanimate objects.


What happens if, for example, 'every other scientist in that particular field' shares the same underlying unexamined assumptions that characterise the entire field? Which seems to be the case for things like "IQ studies" and "evolutionary psychology".



There's also this issue (an article firefox coincidentally suggested for me)

That’s projection for you.
 

Shmee

Memory & Storage, Graphics Cards Mod Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 13, 2008
7,674
2,654
146
But not news or politics.
Well OP did quote a news article, so it kind of is news in that regard. Perhaps this would be better in OT, given the nature and direction of the thread, but it's fine IMO.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,150
6,317
126
Something I
Well OP did quote a news article, so it kind of is news in that regard. Perhaps this would be better in OT, given the nature and direction of the thread, but it's fine IMO.
I think that people interested in a discussion of political beliefs would do well to have a wide ranging sense of curiosity as the obstacles to political agreement in a democracy can only be overcome by buy in. The more ways in which a person is interested and versed as many fields of human knowledge as possible, and relating to them via argument as reference for validation, the more likely I would think, such buy in would be appealing. Politics can be about ego or snout wisdom. Knowledge is required to distinguish between wisdom and a joke.

This, of course, begs the question as to whether their is intelligent like on earth. It isn’t coincidental that one reason often suggested for nothing seen so far is self extinction via stupidity.
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
27,493
26,515
136
Vance is but a few selection iterations away from achieving rock fuckery. I have faith we can get there.
I can see the pitch now.

Trump and Vance travel the galaxy in Trump Force 1 on a quest to bring peace to a war torn galaxy by telling the victims to give up and accept it.
 
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Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
46,525
9,836
146
I can see the pitch now.

Trump and Vance travel the galaxy in Trump Force 1 on a quest to bring peace to a war torn galaxy by telling the victims to give up and accept it.
Make the Universe Great Again!
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,936
13,428
136
I can see the pitch now.

Trump and Vance travel the galaxy in Trump Force 1 on a quest to bring peace to a war torn galaxy by telling the victims to give up and accept it.

Sith lord so big and powerful, very good friend of mine actually love letters.
 

Stokely

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,180
2,906
136
The Observable Universe (which of course could be not the only one but let's assume it is) is a fricking big place. Two trillion galaxies is just mind-blowing, considering how many stars on average are in just one of them.

I find it pretty hard to believe that there is no life at all out there, and it may be very spread out. If there is no FTL travel, then that means you'll never get a visit or hear from most of those far off stars. Monkey curiosity to go visit other stars might be pretty rare too, who knows.

A quick google yields this:

The number of planets in the universe is estimated to be between 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 and 21.6 sextillion(21,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000), depending on how you break down the universe:

  • Observable universe
    If you assume that each of the 2 trillion galaxies in the observable universe has one planet per star, then there are about 2 trillion planets in the observable universe. However, the actual number could be higher or lower.

  • Milky Way
    The Milky Way has 400 billion stars, and some estimate that it has 1–10 trillion orbiting planets. Others believe that there are 60 billion planets in the Milky Way's habitable zone, which is where a planet is warm enough to have liquid water on its surface.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,498
50,651
136
The Observable Universe (which of course could be not the only one but let's assume it is) is a fricking big place. Two trillion galaxies is just mind-blowing, considering how many stars on average are in just one of them.

I find it pretty hard to believe that there is no life at all out there, and it may be very spread out. If there is no FTL travel, then that means you'll never get a visit or hear from most of those far off stars. Monkey curiosity to go visit other stars might be pretty rare too, who knows.

A quick google yields this:
Yes, I am of the position that the circumstances for life to develop as we understand it are pretty specific in the universe and are probably rare but the universe has so, so, so many rolls of the dice to achieve this combination that there are probably plenty of aliens out there.

Aliens that are close enough that we can ever come into contact with them? Less sure about that.
 
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Pipeline 1010

Golden Member
Dec 2, 2005
1,956
778
136
It's hard for me to imagine that advanced civilizations won't just wipe themselves out. Look how many times we've come close to nuclear war in less than 75 years. Will we last another 20,000 years? All it's going to take is one psychopathic leader to hit the launch button or one misunderstanding or faulty sensor and it's over. Our history is absolutely littered with psychopathic asshole murderous leaders. Maos, Ghengis Khans, Stalins. Over and over again. I almost feel as if we've had a lucky streak over the last few decades. You can do the right thing 999 out of 1000 times, but that one single time you fuck around, your civilization is over.

Even if it's not a self-made disaster, there are any number of things that could wipe out life on Earth: incurable disease, asteroid/comet impacts, extreme solar activity. It is only happenstance that this hasn't happened in our recorded history. Given a long enough timeframe, some of these events are practically guaranteed to occur.

I agree with the great filter theory. Something filters out civilizations before they can become advanced enough to colonize the stars. Every single time.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,498
50,651
136
It's hard for me to imagine that advanced civilizations won't just wipe themselves out. Look how many times we've come close to nuclear war in less than 75 years. Will we last another 20,000 years? All it's going to take is one psychopathic leader to hit the launch button or one misunderstanding or faulty sensor and it's over. Our history is absolutely littered with psychopathic asshole murderous leaders. Maos, Ghengis Khans, Stalins. Over and over again. I almost feel as if we've had a lucky streak over the last few decades. You can do the right thing 999 out of 1000 times, but that one single time you fuck around, your civilization is over.

Even if it's not a self-made disaster, there are any number of things that could wipe out life on Earth: incurable disease, asteroid/comet impacts, extreme solar activity. It is only happenstance that this hasn't happened in our recorded history. Given a long enough timeframe, some of these events are practically guaranteed to occur.

I agree with the great filter theory. Something filters out civilizations before they can become advanced enough to colonize the stars. Every single time.
Even a general nuclear war is very unlikely to wipe out humanity as the world is too big, there are too many of us, and nuclear weapons are not as powerful as they are often portrayed to be.

It would be an absolutely horrific tragedy and probably set civilization back some huge amount but it wouldn't be the end of us. Then again the people who will probably survive most will be the incels living in an abandoned missile silo in Montana so maybe we should root for the end.
 
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