Evidence will suffice and build up to the point where he has little to no option IMO. Just guessing on the end result though.
I just feel like he's pushing it too far, with the interviews and all the things he said, and now issues a forceful denial saying he's "angry" at people who don't believe him. At some point you cross the Rubicon and there is just too much shame in ever admitting it.
Trump says false things which he knows can be verified as false not only by media fact checkers, but often by anyone with a google prompt and a functional frontal lobe. I suspect Smollett will just do the same - deny in the face of all evidence to the contrary.
The common trait there is that of narcissism. Only a narcissist would pull a stunt like this. He wasn't going to be written off the show. It was never anything that pedestrian. His fame as a supporting player on a moderately popular TV series wasn't enough. He craved attention.
Sadly, I agree with many of your remarks about the victim culture which may have contributed to this. It's an unfortunate consequence of what is, in my opinion, an otherwise noble venture.