The Jussie Smollett Affair

[woolfe9998]

What the raw number tells me is different than the relationship to the total.

For example, lets look at marketing. Lets say you have a market segmentation of 90% that like feature A, and 10% that like feature B. Most people would stop there and think you should go after the feature A set people.

In reality, what you would need to do is look at your expected penetration rate, cost of features A vs B, total revenue, ect. So, it may run out that the lower number is more meaningful depending on a set of factors.

Now, in relation to this topic. Because it does happen a lot, even if its still small in relation, means it should not be ignored as so unlikely to not worry. All he said is that it happens more than many realize. I would be the reason for saying that is he thinks people are too quick to dismiss the possibility that it could be false.

"It happens more than people realize" is meaningless unless he knows how often people think it happens. If he thinks he's debating people who believe it never happens, then he's just making a politically convenient assumption.

If you told me you could find 10 cases of false allegations of literally any crime in the universe, I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised. Given the number of allegations, it would be quite bizarre if you couldn't find at least 10. Heck, that's just what he's found searching google. There's probably many more. So what he's tell us is nothing really. What we need to know is how likely the allegation is to be false.

Would be useful to know if hate crime allegations are more or less likely to be true than say, rape allegations, or murder allegations, or fraud allegations. Show me something on that and you will have provided something useful.

 

[UglyCasanova]

You seem like a smart enough guy to understand basic statistics. So tell me, what does a raw number actually prove to you? All you have to do is come up with one incident to prove that it has happened at least once in the past, meaning it could theoretically happen any time in the future. After that, the raw numbers tell you nothing because they don't tell you the actual probability of it.

There's always at least a few people who will do anything. There are people who have sex with animals. But not really very many, so no one is going to say it's a big national problem. Yet if we had access to database of all such people, I bet the list would be many fold longer than UC's list of false hate crime accusations. Similarly, I bet a list of people who believe the earth is flat would be orders of magnitude longer, but that is considered a very rare belief.

A percentage of all criminal allegations, not just hate crimes but every category of crime - are false. There are some false accusations of rape, murder, theft, fraud, you name it. The question is, what percentage of the whole.

Percentages and ratios matter. Raw numbers, not so much. Not in such a vast domain as the entire population of the United States.

Well acktuwally....

Argue that if you want man. In the meantime these hoaxes keep happening. I’m about to climax with this one, all I need is Chicago PD to say the word...

 

[Victorian Gray]

Well acktuwally....

Argue that if you want man. In the meantime these hoaxes keep happening. I’m about to climax with this one, all I need is Chicago PD to say the word...

Truly pathetic.

 

[realibrad]

"It happens more than people realize" is meaningless unless he knows how often people think it happens. If he thinks he's debating people who believe it never happens, then he's just making a politically convenient assumption.

If you told me you could find 10 cases of false allegations of literally any crime in the universe, I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised. Given the number of allegations, it would be quite bizarre if you couldn't find at least 10. Heck, that's just what he's found searching google. There's probably many more. So what he's tell us is nothing really. What we need to know is how likely the allegation is to be false.

Would be useful to know if hate crime allegations are more or less likely to be true than say, rape allegations, or murder allegations, or fraud allegations. Show me something on that and you will have provided something useful.

But, realize that he gave you news articles, and not stats. That means there is likely a signal that there is more that is not reported. He is ultimately saying it happens far more than he believes people realize.

But again, all he said was that he thought it happened more than people realized, and you asked for examples. So, he gave you what you asked for. I get that you have now changed the question to better reflect your point, but, his point was simply to attempted to adjust people's perceptions.

 

[Victorian Gray]

But, realize that he gave you news articles, and not stats. That means there is likely a signal that there is more that is not reported. He is ultimately saying it happens far more than he believes people realize.

But again, all he said was that he thought it happened more than people realized, and you asked for examples. So, he gave you what you asked for. I get that you have now changed the question to better reflect your point, but, his point was simply to attempted to adjust people's perceptions.

Stop sugar coating his stance. He's claimed at various times that the vast majority of claims are false. I seem to recollect a recent post where he used the number 90%.

 

[realibrad]

Truly pathetic.

Do you just follow him around to comment on his posts?

Here are you last 15 posts. 5 of those are for Ugly. So 33% of your last 15 posts are to him. Further, there is nothing there other than a single line for 14 of those posts.

Truly pathetic.
You dumb. Sad.
Do you hate Winston Churchill as well?
And bigoted jackass number 2 shows up.
Jackass
Israel has to exist in order for the end times to happen. + Link
And apparently it makes you feel all warm and tingly.
ROFL
She's one of my favorite American political cartoonists.
Prove it.
That puddle of drool just keeps growing.
It's been pointed out several times and he obviously doesn't care.
He's a troll looking for a reaction. <shrug>
He seems to be one of those incredibly ignorant 'burn it all down' kinda guys.
History provides many good lessons. Humans tend not to pay attention though.

 

[realibrad]

Stop sugar coating his stance. He's claimed at various times that the vast majority of claims are false. I seem to recollect a recent post where he used the number 90%.

Then link that. I highly doubt he made the claim that the majority were false, never mind that 90% were.

 

[Victorian Gray]

Do you just follow him around to comment on his posts?

Here are you last 15 posts. 5 of those are for Ugly. So 33% of your last 15 posts are to him. Further, there is nothing there other than a single line for 14 of those posts.

Truly pathetic.
You dumb. Sad.
Do you hate Winston Churchill as well?
And bigoted jackass number 2 shows up.
Jackass
Israel has to exist in order for the end times to happen. + Link
And apparently it makes you feel all warm and tingly.
ROFL
She's one of my favorite American political cartoonists.
Prove it.
That puddle of drool just keeps growing.
It's been pointed out several times and he obviously doesn't care.
He's a troll looking for a reaction. <shrug>
He seems to be one of those incredibly ignorant 'burn it all down' kinda guys.
History provides many good lessons. Humans tend not to pay attention though.

Do you have a point that you think you're making?

 

[Victorian Gray]

Then link that. I highly doubt he made the claim that the majority were false, never mind that 90% were.

Don't care if you believe it or not. I'm certainly not going to waste my time searching for the posts.

 

[woolfe9998]

But, realize that he gave you news articles, and not stats. That means there is likely a signal that there is more that is not reported. He is ultimately saying it happens far more than he believes people realize.

But again, all he said was that he thought it happened more than people realized, and you asked for examples. So, he gave you what you asked for. I get that you have now changed the question to better reflect your point, but, his point was simply to attempted to adjust people's perceptions.

Yeah, we've been through this. He did literally give me what I literally asked for. Unfortunately, off the cuff I framed it as "an arm's length list" but that is not really what we need here. And I've explained precisely why that is and I suspect you understand me perfectly well. Raw numbers don't tell us much of anything.

Name a crime, any serious crime, and I bet I can Google up a decent sized list of false accusations of that crime. And what will I have proven then? That "more people than you realize" have falsely accused others of _____. Congratulations to me, except no one thinks there are never any false accusations. Of anything.

 

[realibrad]

Yeah, we've been through this. He did literally give me what I literally asked for. Unfortunately, off the cuff I framed it as "an arm's length list" but that is not really what we need here. And I've explained precisely why that is and I suspect you understand me perfectly well. Raw numbers don't tell us much of anything.

Name a crime, any serious crime, and I bet I can Google up a decent sized list of false accusations of that crime. And what will I have proven then? That "more people than you realize" have falsely accused others of _____. Congratulations to me, except no one thinks there are never any false accusations. Of anything.

What do we need to measure if perception of reality is accurate or inaccurate?

 

[woolfe9998]

What do we need to measure if perception of reality is accurate or inaccurate?

You need to re-read that sentence, figure out what you think you want to say, then re-write it coherently because I don't understand what you're asking me.

 

[MixMasterTang]

Then link that. I highly doubt he made the claim that the majority were false, never mind that 90% were.

http://www.portvapes.co.uk/?id=Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps&exid=thread...ant-where-nooses-found.2560179/#post-39709296

 

[interchange]

World peace. And publicly funded health care that would help ease the burden of a lot of families that have been suffering to try and take care of sick family members, especially elderly ones. Some tacos would be good, and I like a good burger. Do I need to continue or have I satiated your little lesson enough?

No idea what you're babbling about. I have nothing to gain regardless of the outcome of this so I don't really care much either way. If the guy is faking it, he's an asshole. If he wasn't, then that sucks and the people that did it to him are assholes.

I'm merely pointing out how Ugly has been full on gloating about this because he's been called out for literally saying that 90-95% of racism claims are false/fake/lies, and even after admitting he full on pulled that out of his ass, then still claiming that he doesn't believe that the vast majority of claims of racism are real. And he's consistently denied that it was such a thing when provided evidence (there was one where he claimed that some people made up a claim about the KKK handing out candy in a neighborhood with some flyers about white supremacy stuff, and someone provide a link of someone from the KKK straight up saying they do stuff like that, and he still refused to believe that it happened).

Well be sick of it, but why don't you focus your sickness on the ones that actually get perverse pleasure out of this and not the people calling them out for being fucked in the head.

Have you noticed your approach being effective at changing their minds?

 

[UglyCasanova]

http://www.portvapes.co.uk/?id=Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps&exid=thread...ant-where-nooses-found.2560179/#post-39709296

And link my posts where I’ve said over and over it was a figure of speech meaning this crap happens all the time. And I’ve shown that to be true. Y’all know I’m right so argue something ridiculous as a way to save face. Just admit I’m right and it happens frequently. Or argue about statistics and “well acktuwallys” if you want but it just makes you look ridiculous.

 

[realibrad]

You need to re-read that sentence, figure out what you think you want to say, then re-write it coherently because I don't understand what you're asking me.

Ugly said false claims happen more than people realize. You responded by asking for examples. You then corrected to asking for evidence to suy the position. If his position is that people have an incorrect perception, what cults he provide

My previous statement was coherent.

 

[realibrad]

http://www.portvapes.co.uk/?id=Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps&exid=thread...ant-where-nooses-found.2560179/#post-39709296

Well, that is clearly wrong. I don't think there is any room for saying it was typo of some sort. Bad post by him.

 

[woolfe9998]

Ugly said false claims happen more than people realize. You responded by asking for examples. You then corrected to asking for evidence to suy the position. If his position is that people have an incorrect perception, what cults he provide

My previous statement was coherent.

No it wasn't, and neither is this one. Look, I'm not trying to be a grammar Nazi here. I don't care if there are errors in people's posts so long as I understand the post. But sentences like "If his position is that people have an incorrect perception, what cults he provide" are difficult to parse. Maybe you're posting on your phone from your car or something.

Anyway, I think I see your overall point. You're saying he was countering a perception. The problem is what was that perception. Did anyone post here saying that there are never false accusations of hate crimes?

 

[UglyCasanova]

Well, that is clearly wrong. I don't think there is any room for saying it was typo of some sort. Bad post by him.

What they’re conveniently leaving out was the plethora of posts I’ve made clarifying that I meant as a figure of speech since everyone here is statisticians that takes everything literally. Point of the post is thisnhappens a lot. But they don’t want to argue the point of the post because it’s true, this happens a lot. Instead they try to pick apart little gotchas in there to save face.

 

[realibrad]

No it wasn't, and neither is this one. Look, I'm not trying to be a grammar Nazi here. I don't care if there are errors in people's posts so long as I understand the post. But sentences like "If his position is that people have an incorrect perception, what cults he provide" are difficult to parse. Maybe you're posting on your phone from your car or something.

Anyway, I think I see your overall point. You're saying he was countering a perception. The problem is what was that perception. Did anyone post here saying that there are never false accusations of hate crimes?

Ah auto correct.

 

[Greenman]

Do you just follow him around to comment on his posts?

Here are you last 15 posts. 5 of those are for Ugly. So 33% of your last 15 posts are to him. Further, there is nothing there other than a single line for 14 of those posts.

Truly pathetic.
You dumb. Sad.
Do you hate Winston Churchill as well?
And bigoted jackass number 2 shows up.
Jackass
Israel has to exist in order for the end times to happen. + Link
And apparently it makes you feel all warm and tingly.
ROFL
She's one of my favorite American political cartoonists.
Prove it.
That puddle of drool just keeps growing.
It's been pointed out several times and he obviously doesn't care.
He's a troll looking for a reaction. <shrug>
He seems to be one of those incredibly ignorant 'burn it all down' kinda guys.
History provides many good lessons. Humans tend not to pay attention though.

Seems like normal P&N to me. Am I missing something?

 

[Victorian Gray]

http://www.portvapes.co.uk/?id=Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps&exid=thread...ant-where-nooses-found.2560179/#post-39709296

Thank you for making the effort.

 

[Victorian Gray]

And link my posts where I’ve said over and over it was a figure of speech meaning this crap happens all the time. And I’ve shown that to be true. Y’all know I’m right so argue something ridiculous as a way to save face. Just admit I’m right and it happens frequently. Or argue about statistics and “well acktuwallys” if you want but it just makes you look ridiculous.

Bullshit.

 

[UglyCasanova]

Do you just follow him around to comment on his posts?

Here are you last 15 posts. 5 of those are for Ugly. So 33% of your last 15 posts are to him. Further, there is nothing there other than a single line for 14 of those posts.

Truly pathetic.
You dumb. Sad.
Do you hate Winston Churchill as well?
And bigoted jackass number 2 shows up.
Jackass
Israel has to exist in order for the end times to happen. + Link
And apparently it makes you feel all warm and tingly.
ROFL
She's one of my favorite American political cartoonists.
Prove it.
That puddle of drool just keeps growing.
It's been pointed out several times and he obviously doesn't care.
He's a troll looking for a reaction. <shrug>
He seems to be one of those incredibly ignorant 'burn it all down' kinda guys.
History provides many good lessons. Humans tend not to pay attention though.

And the the funny thing is Victorian knows I’ve got him blocked (for this very reason) so I’m not even seeing his posts when he does it.

 

[Victorian Gray]