The Kaveri Pre-Launch Thread (A10-7800 and A10-6800k @3,5 Ghz)

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mrmt

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Aug 18, 2012
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Sometime in the future, the era of AMD being a direct competitor to Intel will be looked at as just that; an era. Because it's over. And it ended the second they decided to spin off their fabs.

AMD never could afford developing their own process, and given their current volumes they cannot afford to develop even a node variant for them. Given that two situations, having or not a fab wouldn't make any difference.
 

DaZeeMan

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Jan 2, 2014
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I can't remember where I heard it now, but a while back someone pointed out that every time you shrink in process node size, the cost of development for that 'die shrink' is roughly double the cost of the last die shrink. Thinking it was that Cringely dude...

If you consider 40nm to 28nm a 'full node shrink', this EE Times article would seem to agree with that assessment:
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1263318


Here's a .pdf that discusses some of this:
http://www.lithoguru.com/scientist/litho_papers/2013_SPIE_DFM_Keynote.pdf

The above .pdf is slightly dated, and predicted that we'd be down to four foundries by 2018. Well... as of today we seem to be down to just four major foundries: Intel, TSMC, Global Foundries, and Samsung. Here's an interesting article showcasing Intel's node advantage:

http://www.extremetech.com/computing/171477-intels-14nm-milkshake-its-better-than-yours

So, since Intel is worth roughly 2.5 times the value of TSMC and GF combined, it's no wonder why they are roughly 2 nodes ahead. However, assuming that the development costs of those two node shrinks cost roughly 6x (2x + 4x) to accomplish over their competitor's last node shrink, well they need to make up those costs in volume. This development cost disparity is probably (IMHO)the only reason why their competitors are able to hold onto any ground whatsoever.

So it will take a while for GloFo and TSMC to fully deploy 20nm and 14nm (One article noted that TSMC will start deploying 20nm in Feb of 2014, AMD also mentioned 14nm FinFET for low power products sometime in 2014). Intel is already talking about 10nm in that time period.

Samsung is currently flirting with 14nm low power designs as well:
http://www.dailytech.com/Report+Sam...+Exynos+6+Chip+for+Galaxy+S5/article33645.htm

Article about the challenges Intel expects to face in the 10nm, 7nm, 5nm and 3nm transistions:
http://www.extremetech.com/computin...that-will-take-us-to-the-limits-of-moores-law

Quick note: Samsung has somewhere around five times the revenues of Intel ($268 Billion in 2012), but of course they are a much more diversified company (seems like they make everything, from ships to construction equipment to electronics to insurance subisiaries, truly a multinational conglomerate). Nonetheless, They seem to be well positioned to go toe to toe with Intel as they choose, and indeed it is no wonder why they are so strong in the mobile market.

Got a little off topic there, but it's good to understand exactly why AMD and Nvidia aren't on 14nm right now. Kaveri would likely have had a much better wattage to performance ratio if 14nm had been a possibility, but I don't think AMD was ever ahead in the 'node game' to begin with. It's no wonder to me why they spun off Global Foundries - it gave them the TSMC option. But I don't ever see them 'catching up' in the node game.

Again, they need to design smarter if they hope to maintain any semblance of market share. With the innovations they've incorporated into Kaveri, I think they will do OK. And as Toms Hardware and others noted, their GPU business is expected to hit 40% marketshare within the next six months. Yeah, PS4s and XBoxOnes are not PC's, but a GPU is a GPU no matter where you deploy it. Besides, some people don't even own PC's these days (they use tablets, game systems, and their smartphones for all of their computing needs) And AMD NEEDS as many design wins as possible if they hope to stay even somewhat competitive. And, as a few analysts have noted, Intel could use some smartphone wins of their own... and of course they need to stay competitive in the Tablet market to boot!

Kaveri is now the major piece of AMD's 'all in' strategy to secure more of the consumer market, it will be interesting to see if they can hold on to their chunk of the value PC/Laptop market with Kaveri.

And I'll agree, Intel owns the enthusiast market, although some do still flirt with their FXes. I don't see Kaveri putting any sort of dent in that market (it might maintain some enthusiast market share at best, but only in the middle/lower enthusiast segment).

I'm in that middle/lower enthusiast category, so as I noted above I'm excited Kaveri does as well as it does. Waaaaay more powerful than the laptop I'm typing on now...
 
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mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
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my point being the vast majority out there will be more than satisfied with kaveri. With the vast majority being so...vast, sometimes we forget about countries outside the US and developing nations that can't afford the intel premium, where amd could serve.

Funny to see you talking about Intel premium. AMD has atrociously low gross margins, the company is losing money, without scale to sustain more than a small foundry, bleeding cash and the biggest silicon they got on the bottom market is 245mm^2.

Intel, OTOH, has margins above industry average, has healthy gross profits, healthy cash flow levels, immense scale of production enough to sustain a network of foundries and the kind of stuff they sell on the bottom market is not far from the 100mm^2 mark.

We have one company with products economically suitable for the bottom market, and actually making money on it and another company being financially trashed every quarter because their products aren't cost competitive. It's not hard to see that current price levels aren't sustained by AMD, but by Intel. AMD, in fact, desperately needs a price increase on their APU line up.

But despite these facts, you and a few other people aren't shy to call Intel out for price premiums and stuff like that. I don't get it.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
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Yep, if he want to talk about premium and value. Let him find a 45-60$ AMD chip that can compete with a Celeron/Pentium
 

DaZeeMan

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Jan 2, 2014
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Funny to see you talking about Intel premium. AMD has atrociously low gross margins, the company is losing money, without scale to sustain more than a small foundry, bleeding cash and the biggest silicon they got on the bottom market is 245mm^2.

Intel, OTOH, has margins above industry average, has healthy gross profits, healthy cash flow levels, immense scale of production enough to sustain a network of foundries and the kind of stuff they sell on the bottom market is not far from the 100mm^2 mark.

We have one company with products economically suitable for the bottom market, and actually making money on it and another company being financially trashed every quarter because their products aren't cost competitive. It's not hard to see that current price levels aren't sustained by AMD, but by Intel. AMD, in fact, desperately needs a price increase on their APU line up.

But despite these facts, you and a few other people aren't shy to call Intel out for price premiums and stuff like that. I don't get it.

AMD showed a profit last quarter, and is expected to do the same this quarter. They've also kept their long term debt growth to a minimum, and managed to drop their debt to assets ratio in Q3. They will need to continue to do this if they hope to stay viable into the future.

Whether they can sustain profitability over the next few quarters is of course the big question. And they will need said profits for R&D and such.

AMD's quarterly, and presumably annual statement will be released on January 21st, so we will have a better picture r.e. if the board's strategy of meaner and leaner will continue to bear fruit. But you can see why Kaveri is such a big deal to them, and why the PS4 and XBox One wins could not have come at a better time.

Not to mention the R Series doing as well as it is, although NVidia will very likely take the crown back soon, when their next batch of products is released.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GeForce_800_Series

tick, tock!
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
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AMD showed a profit last quarter, and is expected to do the same this quarter. They've also kept their long term debt growth to a minimum, and managed to drop their debt to assets ratio in Q3. They will need to continue to do this if they hope to stay viable into the future.

Whether they can sustain profitability over the next few quarters is of course the big question. And they will need said profits for R&D and such.

AMD's quarterly, and presumably annual statement will be released on January 21st, so we will have a better picture r.e. if the board's strategy of meaner and leaner will continue to bear fruit. But you can see why Kaveri is such a big deal to them, and why the PS4 and XBox One wins could not have come at a better time.

Not to mention the R Series doing as well as it is, although NVidia will very likely take the crown back soon, when their next batch of products is released.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GeForce_800_Series

tick, tock!

Is the R(9) series doing that well? USA yes, rest of the world? Not so much. AMD lost marketshare again in Q3 as well.

AMD recently had to borrow another 500M$. And they have a delayed 200M$ WSA payment for Q4. So it needs a minor miracle to pull a profit in Q4. Plus you can say Q3 is artificially higher for the same reason.

http://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-500-million-line-of-credit,25063.html
 
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sniffin

Member
Jun 29, 2013
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Is the R(9) series doing that well? USA yes, rest of the world? Not so much. AMD lost marketshare again in Q3 as well.

Where I am most 280X and 290 SKUs are completely sold out. Our leading online retailer has 11 280X skus - only 2 of which are available, and 8 290s sku of which 3 are available.

Meanwhile I have a choice of every 780 sku they stock, and most 770s are available too. So yes, it is doing that well and not just in the US

edit: I only have 2 choices if I want to buy a 270, while I have 10+ if I want to buy a 760.
 
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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
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Where I am most 280X and 290 SKUs are completely sold out. Our leading online retailer has 11 280X skus - only 2 of which are available, and 8 290s sku of which 3 are available.

Meanwhile I have a choice of every 780 sku they stock. So yes, it is doing that well and not just in the US

In europe you can buy them by the 100s in regular online stores. Same in asia.
 

DaZeeMan

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Jan 2, 2014
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Is the R(9) series doing that well? USA yes, rest of the world? Not so much. AMD lost marketshare again in Q3 as well.

AMD recently had to borrow another 500M$. And they have a delayed 200M$ WSA payment for Q4. So it needs a minor miracle to pull a profit in Q4. Plus you can say Q3 is artificially higher for the same reason.

Are you referring to discrete GPU marketshare in Q3?!? Yeah, I saw your chart, but dGPUs are becoming less and and less of the total overall market. A GPU is a GPU, no matter where it is used (APU, XBox, R series, etc.).

There's a reason Intel has entered the iGPU market...

And do keep in mind AMD was 'in between' releases in Q3, so I would expect NVidia's dGPU market share to grow at that point, as it was NVidia's turn at the top of the heap.

SINCE that time, PS4, XBox One, the R series hit the market. So I wouldn't hang too much on NVidia's gaining dGPU market share in Q3 2013. NVidia losing out on the current generation of consoles has left the company scrambling, and NVidia's mobile strategy is now more important than ever.

Kaveri will be joining XBox One,PS4 and the Hawaiian Islands cards in the GPU sales department this quarter as well. So for the short term at least, AMD is strongly positioned on the GPU front, which is why Toms and other tech/financial sites can easily see AMD reaching 40% GPU market share within 6 Months.

Unless you can share projections that state otherwise?

Keeping that 40% market share throughout 2014, of course, will be another matter. I can see NVidia, etc. getting some nice tablet wins and such between now and Christmas.
 
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sniffin

Member
Jun 29, 2013
141
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In europe you can buy them by the 100s in regular online stores. Same in asia.

I have to wonder if you're exaggerating here. I mean if I go on overclockers.co.uk there is definitely availability, but alot of 280/290 SKUs are pre order only. Not exactly what I'd call plentiful, let alone availability by the 100s


and NVidia's mobile strategy is now more important than ever.

Thanks to AMDs idiotic driver team Nvidia have the mobile market almost to themselves. So no issues there
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
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Are you referring to discrete GPU marketshare in Q3?!? Yeah, I saw your chart, but dGPUs are becoming less and and less of the total overall market. A GPU is a GPU, no matter where it is used (APU, XBox, R series, etc.).

There's a reason Intel has entered the iGPU market...

And do keep in mind AMD was 'in between' releases in Q3, so I would expect NVidia's dGPU market share to grow at that point, as it was NVidia's turn at the top of the heap.

SINCE that time, PS4, XBox One, the R series hit the market. So I wouldn't hang too much on NVidia's gaining dGPU market share in Q3. NVidia losing out on the current generation of consoles has left the company scrambling, and NVidia's mobile strategy is now more important than ever.

Kaveri will be joining XBox One,PS4 and the Hawaiian Islands cards in the GPU sales department this quarter as well. So for the short term at least, AMD is strongly positioned on the GPU front, which is why Toms and other tech/financial sites can easily see AMD gaining 40% GPU market share within 6 Months.

Unless you can share projections that state otherwise?

Keeping that 40% market share throughout 2014, of course, will be another matter. I can see NVidia, etc. getting some nice tablet wins and such between now and Christmas.

If you want to count IGP, that 40% number goes completely wrong for you.

Q3 2013.



The entire console "wins" is barely offsetting the losses that AMD suffered in revenue in its other segments. And Kaveri wont change that, just continue the slow decrease in marketshare and revenue for the CPU division.
 
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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
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I have to wonder if you're exaggerating here. I mean if I go on overclockers.co.uk there is definitely availability, but alot of 280/290 SKUs are pre order only. Not exactly what I'd call plentiful, let alone availability by the 100s

Really?

Sapphire Radeon R9 290X 4GB GDDR5 100+
http://www.komplett.dk/sapphire-radeon-r9-290x-4gb-gddr5/798662

XFX Radeon R9 290X 4GB GDDR5 100+
http://www.komplett.dk/xfx-radeon-r9-290x-4gb-gddr5/799057

Sapphire Radeon R9 290X 4GB GDDR5 w/BF4 100+
http://www.komplett.dk/sapphire-radeon-r9-290x-4gb-gddr5/803178

Sapphire Radeon R9 290 4GB GDDR5 w/BF4 100+
http://www.komplett.dk/sapphire-radeon-r9-290-4gb-gddr5/803852

XFX Radeon R9 290 4GB GDDR5 w/BF4 100+
http://www.komplett.dk/xfx-radeon-r9-290-4gb-gddr5/804483

XFX Radeon R9 280X 3GB GDDR5 w/BF4 100+
http://www.komplett.dk/xfx-radeon-r9-280x-3gb-gddr5/804914

Sapphire Radeon R9 280X 3GB GDDR5 w/BF4 100+
http://www.komplett.dk/sapphire-radeon-r9-280x-3gb-gddr5/803177

Remember all prices include 25% VAT.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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Hell, you have 25% VAT in Denmark ?? and I thought 23% here was high.

Hungary, Iceland, Croatia, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Romania and Finland is above Greece in VAT %.

Poland and Ireland share same VAT % as Greece.

And you could add another 21 countries with 20% or more.

So its not that bad in Greece
 

DaZeeMan

Member
Jan 2, 2014
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If you want to count IGP, that 40% number goes completely wrong for you.

Q3 2013.



The entire console "wins" is barely offsetting the losses that AMD suffered in revenue in its other segments. And Kaveri wont change that, just continue the slow decrease in marketshare and revenue for the CPU division.

Again, AMD was 'in between' products in Q3. Kaveri had been announced, which no doubt had a number of people (myself included) holding off due to the number of changes Kaveri offers. NVidia was riding the wave of the GTX 7xx series that had been released in May/June/July, during Q3.

As far as Add In Boards with GPUs, the most recent hard number I can find for these via Google is the Q4 2012 numbers. 14.51 Million total units were produced, with NVidia producing roughly 2/3rds of those. AMD produced 4.98 Million units in Q4 2012, so you can see how 6 Million units for consoles is a HUGE deal.

That being said, add in board sales have been steadily declining. While we did see a 1.8% spike in Q1 2013, we saw a 5.4% decline between Q1 and Q2. Apparently dGPU shipment numbers were essentially unchanged between Q2 and Q3 2013, although John Peddle doesn't have the AIB report listed separately for Q3 2013...

As for TOTAL GPU sales (of all types) we are on track for 436 Million GPUs being shipped, from all manufacturers in 2013, down from 479 Million in 2012.

APUs make up a HUGE chunk of that 436 Million. According to John Peddie (the source of your numbers incidentally) 99% of Intel's non Server CPUs include integrated graphics, and over 67% of AMD's non server CPUs include integrated graphics (another source I cited recently has said 3/4 of AMD's processors are APUs)

So I'm not really interested in your Q3 numbers, as they don't tell the whole story of the GPU situation TODAY! A LOT of new AMD products hit the market in Q4.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
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AMD showed a profit last quarter, and is expected to do the same this quarter. They've also kept their long term debt growth to a minimum, and managed to drop their debt to assets ratio in Q3. They will need to continue to do this if they hope to stay viable into the future.

AMD generated peanuts profits and peanuts cash flows, not enough to cover even the WSA payments they have to make in january. And since when not growing long term debt is good when you are leveraging yourself in the short term? AMD hired a 500MM for working capital. In fact, their debt profile is worsening since they had their credit rate cut.
 

DaZeeMan

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Jan 2, 2014
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BACK ON TOPIC, XBit labs had this to say about Kaveri's 28NM SHP (Super High Performance) process. A quote from the article:
With Kaveri, AMD chose to use GlobalFoundries’ 28SHP (28nm super high performance) process technology that was designed with various types of chips in mind. Improved transistor density and thinner elements of 28nm process tech allowed the company to integrate whopping 2.41 billion of transistors into a 245mm2 Kaveri die, which is 85% higher transistor count compared to Trinity/Richland design (246mm2, 1.303 billion transistors, 32nm SOI). Now the company has four Steamroller cores, hUMA [heterogeneous unified memory architecture] memory controller, Radeon graphics processing unit with 512 stream processors (AMD calls them eight GPU compute units) and a lot of various special-purpose hardware inside its flagship APU.

Link to article:
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/cpu/di...d_Using_APU_Optimized_Process_Technology.html
 

DaZeeMan

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Jan 2, 2014
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We already know this. It was stated on an AMD slide from their Kaveri presentation.

That's the first time in this thread that I've seen the abbreviation for SHP (super high performance) spelled out, and also the first confirmation I've seen in this thread that Global Foundries is doing the manufacturing (I may have missed that, but I don't remember a definitive answer to that question). Plus, I share the articles as they appear. You never know when some odd comment might appear in an article...
 
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NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
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That's the first time in this thread that I've seen the abbreviation for SHP (super high performance) spelled out, and also the first confirmation I've seen in this thread that Global Foundries is doing the manufacturing (I may have missed that, but I don't remember a definitive answer to that question). Plus, I share the articles as they appear. You never know when some odd comment might appear in an article...

The slide about process stated that it was made at GloFo.

 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
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That's the first time in this thread that I've seen the abbreviation for SHP (super high performance) spelled out, and also the first confirmation I've seen in this thread that Global Foundries is doing the manufacturing (I may have missed that, but I don't remember a definitive answer to that question). Plus, I share the articles as they appear. You never know when some odd comment might appear in an article...

SHP is nothing new. Trinity and Richland used 32nm SHP. And before that 45nm SHP and so on. Its simply a moniker. It doesnt mean its better than TSMCs 28nm HP for example.

GloFo and 28nm SHP was shown here:
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=35916481&postcount=116
 

Spawne32

Senior member
Aug 16, 2004
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They werent kidding when they said this was an anti-AMD forum that's for sure. I dont know why anyone think's this somehow seals AMD's fate based on a bunch of weak third party reviews when the product isnt even available yet and still under NDA. AMD isnt going to claim 20-30% gains at the biggest tech show in the world when the actual gains are less then 3%. None of the reviews so far released have shown nothing other then results that are meant to drive controversy prior to the NDA being lifted and actual GOOD reviews being published.

The next 10 years are not going to be at the same rate of chip development we have seen over the past 20 as the process continues to get smaller. When we get beyond 14nm into the 10nm...7nm..2nm process, its going to finally highlight the problem with moores law. AMD I firmly believe will eventually catch right back up to intel in due time as it takes longer and longer to develop the next generation of chips unless something revolutionary happens. I think AMD knows this and this is the reason why they arent so hell bent on pressing the issue with advancing the process as fast as intel is and focusing on more interesting designs like with the APU. Thing's like HSA, huma, and mantle.

I think its also plainly evident that the market share for the desktop processor is also going the way of the dinosaur as well. It might still be there in 10 years but in no way will it be as prominent as it is now or was 10 years ago. The computer of the future is GOING to be an APU, probably an ITX sized box at max, maybe running a smaller dedicated graphics setup with the ability to run dual graphics off both the dedicated and the APU for extra power. Mark my words, it will happen. Like the incandescent light bulb, gone are the days of a 4 foot tall tower running 4 graphics cards and 1500 watt powersupplys.
 

Homeles

Platinum Member
Dec 9, 2011
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The next 10 years are not going to be at the same rate of chip development we have seen over the past 20 as the process continues to get smaller. When we get beyond 14nm into the 10nm...7nm..2nm process, its going to finally highlight the problem with moores law. AMD I firmly believe will eventually catch right back up to intel in due time as it takes longer and longer to develop the next generation of chips unless something revolutionary happens. I think AMD knows this and this is the reason why they arent so hell bent on pressing the issue with advancing the process as fast as intel is and focusing on more interesting designs like with the APU. Thing's like HSA, huma, and mantle.
Lol, people have been saying this since Moore's Law was first stated. What a joke.
 
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