The law of unintended consequences

[XMan]

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/11/bloomberg/bxcorn.php

Ethanol makes sense, but perhaps not so much from corn. In the end I don't know that "bio-fuels" will be the answer, unless we are willing to absorb it in increased food costs. Americans can probably afford to do so, but I don't know about the third world.

We could invest in Brazil's model if we could end the tariffs on imported ethanol, but eventually I think it's going to come down between a balancing act of farmland for fuel or food.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/10/world...3adc82c67600388&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt

My take? Bring on the nuke plants and electric cars!

 

[jjones]

Ironically, I was discussing this very issue over lunch today with some of my wife's family while passing around the tortillas.

 

[techs]

Another unintended consequence is farmers in the midwest actually increasing corn planting over other crops such as wheat. Corn requires lots of water and the engine for corn in the midwest is the Ogalla reservoir which is already going dry in some places. In less than 20 years large areas will no longer be able to support large scale agriculture.
So our kids will be eating food imported from other countries. Which will mean the U.S. will need "hard" currency to buy it. Just about the time the U.S. will be enormously overburdened with the massive debt by the baby boomers.
So the end result will be starving Americans.

 

[imported_dna]

It seems foolish to burn edible crops in order to to keep an inefficient transportation system going.

Wouldn't petroleum consumption be reduced substantially if all major metropolitan areas had good public transporation systems?

There will probably be other benefits due to reduction in pollution, but that's a different issue.

 

[nullzero]

Electric plug in cars, buses, and electric rail systems for public mass transportation are the best way to go. Supported by nuclear, wind, and solar power.

 

[feralkid]

Originally posted by: nullzero
Electric plug in cars, buses, and electric rail systems for public mass transportation are the best way to go. Supported by nuclear, wind, and solar power.

I agree, but in the mean time, why not some American grown fuel?

 

[rockyct]

Originally posted by: techs
Another unintended consequence is farmers in the midwest actually increasing corn planting over other crops such as wheat. Corn requires lots of water and the engine for corn in the midwest is the Ogalla reservoir which is already going dry in some places. In less than 20 years large areas will no longer be able to support large scale agriculture.
So our kids will be eating food imported from other countries. Which will mean the U.S. will need "hard" currency to buy it. Just about the time the U.S. will be enormously overburdened with the massive debt by the baby boomers.
So the end result will be starving Americans.

and then you guys will wish California never seceded.

 

[Ronstang]

Originally posted by: rockyct

Originally posted by: techs
Another unintended consequence is farmers in the midwest actually increasing corn planting over other crops such as wheat. Corn requires lots of water and the engine for corn in the midwest is the Ogalla reservoir which is already going dry in some places. In less than 20 years large areas will no longer be able to support large scale agriculture.
So our kids will be eating food imported from other countries. Which will mean the U.S. will need "hard" currency to buy it. Just about the time the U.S. will be enormously overburdened with the massive debt by the baby boomers.
So the end result will be starving Americans.

and then you guys will wish California never seceded.

CA isn't capable of seceding. You are delusional. It is dependent on other states for most of it's water and energy. CA would implode.

 

[imported_Shivetya]

Welcome to the world of government interference.

In other words. The government will intefere in the progress of technology simply because politicians use our money to buy votes. If the market was allowed to decide this issue we might have ethanol, but from sugar instead, or something else. However, getting past government back interference will cost us all more

 

[imported_dna]

Originally posted by: feralkid
I agree, but in the mean time, why not some American grown fuel?

Because it costs more to produce ethanol, while forcing corn prices up, which in turn will raise food prices. Also, I recall reading that they use coal during the production process.

So, you pay more for food & fuel, and end up with more pollution; plus, you get less energy than what you put into it.

 

[Genx87]

Makes sense, but lets continue to give govt subsidies to these corporations in the name of green.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: dna
It seems foolish to burn edible crops in order to to keep an inefficient transportation system going.

Wouldn't petroleum consumption be reduced substantially if all major metropolitan areas had good public transporation systems?

There will probably be other benefits due to reduction in pollution, but that's a different issue.

Doubtful, public trans has many limitations. The biggest of course being it rarely drops you off at your house. The other being worse commute times.

I think our best bet as a country is to convince companies to have people work from home and telecommute. There are a lot of jobs in corps that dont require a person sitting in a cubicle.

 

[waggy]

I live in a farming area. So i know a lot of farmers.

most are just going to grow corn. no beans, no wheat, nothing else but corn. they got paid a lot this year for it. So expect to see other items going up in cost as well.

 

[zephyrprime]

Right now, this problem isn't very severe yet. We can alleviate it pretty easily by simply allowing sugar imports from sugar cane. However, if ethanol takes off in a big way, this will become a huge problem. There simply isn't enough land on earth to convert everyone to ethanol usage. The US cannot grow a lot of sugarcane because we lack a tropical climate. And cellusic ethanol isn't fully developed yet.

 

[Moonbeam]

It's great for immigration as millions and millions of Mexicans who can't afford to eat come here for food and money.

 

[CPA]

Originally posted by: zephyrprime
Right now, this problem isn't very severe yet. We can alleviate it pretty easily by simply allowing sugar imports from sugar cane. However, if ethanol takes off in a big way, this will become a huge problem. There simply isn't enough land on earth to convert everyone to ethanol usage. The US cannot grow a lot of sugarcane because we lack a tropical climate. And cellusic ethanol isn't fully developed yet.

Tell that to Mexico. There are already tortilla shortages. It may seem funny and incosequential, but for many poor mexicans, tortillas are a staple and a way to make money.

 

[1EZduzit]

While there are some valid concerns, as a farmer (mostly wheat) I'm forced to think back to when Tiger Woods was making more money off a box of wheaties then I was, or when I was selling my products at a loss and everybody in the country was complaining about the high cost of goverment subsides (which for the nmost part just ends up in the hands of agribusiness anyway). As many around us were going bankrupt we were told we had to get better at marketing,. LOL, we did.

It's a crazy world we live in, no?

 

[imported_dna]

Originally posted by: Genx87
Doubtful, public trans has many limitations. The biggest of course being it rarely drops you off at your house. The other being worse commute times.

Well, public transportation is not a taxi service, therefore one should not expect to be dropped off right in front of the house.

As for the worse commute time, that's due to all the other vehicles on the road, particularly those who double-park.

The situation is getting worse and worse, with traffic more congested than ever -- and no amount of corn will solve that problem.

 

[OutHouse]

lets just wait and see what the prices of corn are this summer. if a lot of farmers are going to plant a lot of corn the prices may drop by a whole lot.

 

[her209]

Mmmm... cactus.

 

[SSSnail]

Next, invest in fertilizer. :thumbsup:

Nothing surprising, really.

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: XMan
We could invest in Brazil's model if we could end the tariffs on imported ethanol, but eventually I think it's going to come down between a balancing act of farmland for fuel or food.

There are several comments about Brazil's model. Yes, ethonal from sugar cane is better in amny respects. But due to the current demand for sugar cane Brazil is having a problem in that rain forest are being razed to plant more crops.

One step forward, One step back. We need to find a way to solve a problem with creating anoth one.

Geothermal, nuclear & solar are the way to go.

Silicon is arguably the most abundant mineral. There will never be a shortage, and is not "used up" in the production of electricity. Once made into a solar panel is can produce electricity pretty much indefinately.

The proble now, is for scientific research to come up with less expensive purification methodologies. There are many universities researching this area, I would like to see more government funding to build pilot plants etc to explore some of the new concepts on purification methods.

Fern

 

[Fineghal]

The law of unintended consequences
Corn prices rice as ethanol use increases



Actually, that's the law of supply and demand.
Now what's the opportunity cost I wonder?

 

[1EZduzit]

Originally posted by: Fern

Originally posted by: XMan
We could invest in Brazil's model if we could end the tariffs on imported ethanol, but eventually I think it's going to come down between a balancing act of farmland for fuel or food.

There are several comments about Brazil's model. Yes, ethonal from sugar cane is better in amny respects. But due to the current demand for sugar cane Brazil is having a problem in that rain forest are being razed to plant more crops.

One step forward, One step back. We need to find a way to solve a problem with creating anoth one.

Geothermal, nuclear & solar are the way to go.

Silicon is arguably the most abundant mineral. There will never be a shortage, and is not "used up" in the production of electricity. Once made into a solar panel is can produce electricity pretty much indefinately.

The proble now, is for scientific research to come up with less expensive purification methodologies. There are many universities researching this area, I would like to see more government funding to build pilot plants etc to explore some of the new concepts on purification methods.

Fern

Why should the goverment subsidize jobs for you big city folks. :laugh:

 

[Chiller2]

The consequences were not unintended that was the intention all along. It was another pork barrel project to buy votes.