The Mighty Russian Economy.

[fleshconsumed]

This is why I omitted Western Europe from the list. Western Europe is still too expensive even for highly educated and highly paid Russian professionals. I'm not surprised that you would only see "New Russians" there. Most of the regular normal Russian folks travel to more affordable countries around Eastern Europe and Asia (and apparently Africa as well), I think Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus are the most popular summer destinations.

 

[doubledeluxe]

I think it's really worth pointing out a few other things with respect to Russia. The income inequality is so great that there are things in Russia that no normal Russian can buy. The best example I can point out is toilet paper. All Russians seemed to use the same awful toilet paper when I was there. If you went to a store and wanted to buy some Charmin you could expect to pay an arm and a leg. I literally, not figuratively, could not afford to buy Charmin toilet paper when I was in Russia. I had to use the same shitty toilet paper as everyone else. Anything that is not the most basic thing needed for survival was treated as a luxury good and priced accordingly. If you wanted a nice TV you could expect to pay 4x what we would pay in the US. Imagine paying $4000 for a flat screen TV as a regular Russian. It's impossible. Normal Russians had shitty TV's and shitty computers. They made it work though. Then you would go to a family that had dirty money and they lived large, traveled, had boats, extra houses, and more.

It is a crazy poor country. There were some exceptions and, yes, I did have some rich friends (no clue what they did. Don't ask, don't tell. I got the impression it was smuggling car parts though) so I got to see both sides of the country but for the most part we're talking crazy poor. Where it was better though was Moscow. You made more money there for sure. However I'm not entirely sure how that all pans out since Moscow is much more expensive than the rest of the country.

Moscow is kinda the city that Russia wants the rest of the world to see. The black market was rampant in the rest of the country but they would put notices on goods that these black market items are forbidden from being sold in Moscow.

When I went to the bank they sent me outside to use the black market. I still don't fully understand how that system works but the banks offer very low rates and everyone exchanged currency on the street directly in front of the bank. I've used the black market to exchange currency in lots of countries but Russia is the only one where the bank sent me outside to use it.

 

[doubledeluxe]

This is why I omitted Western Europe from the list. Western Europe is still too expensive even for highly educated and highly paid Russian professionals. I'm not surprised that you would only see "New Russians" there. Most of the regular normal Russian folks travel to more affordable countries around Eastern Europe and Asia (and apparently Africa as well), I think Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus are the most popular summer destinations.

I haven't been to those last 3 countries in a lot of years. However I was just in Africa for 3 months. I saw no Russians. I spent a couple weeks in parts of Eastern Europe this summer and saw none either. I spent 6 months in parts of Asia a few years ago and saw none. Maybe they're all hanging out in Varna or something where I didn't go but I'm just not seeing them.

I really hope you're right but like I said I haven't seen a single one.

 

[rudder]

Tennessee rates right around the middle of the pack for job growth, but it has one of the worst unemployment rates in the country.

Funny, I thought this thread was about the Russian economy. Sure Tennessee has higher than the national average unemployment (7.4%) but people ignore the fact that Tennessee has one of the lowest debt (government debt) rates per capita and public pensions are nearly fully funded. Tennessee likes to pay as it goes. Compare this with states like Illinois that have loads of debt, humungous pension liabilities and are raising taxes to cover the shortfall. Companies like Nissan have left California to come to Tennessee for the business environment. Ruger is opening a new plant, Amazon has a big presence, VW, etc. Unfortunately in the case of companies like Ruger, they cannot open up a factory overnight. The fiscal outlook for Tennessee looks rosy. Lots of companies in high tax union states find states like Tennessee attractive. The government here has a balanced budget amendment and the governors (even the previous democratic governor) will cut shit out of the budget if there is no money. If only the Federal government had the same fiscal responsibility.

Now what this has to do with the Russian economy I do not know. Some lefties have their panties in a wad I suppose when I said the flat tax in Russia is not the source of their ills.

Now please stay on task. The Russian economy has nothing to do with Tennessee.

 

[werepossum]

It seems like production is always ramped up at the perfect time. Americans start talking about alternatives to oil -> price of oil crashes and the debate ends. Shale oil -> price crash and it ends.

It doesn't really matter. Very few of those shale oil companies are actually profitable.
List of companies taken from this list here: list
Using numbers from Google Finance, looking at annual free cash flow (cash from operations less capital expenditures)
Marathon Oil (MRO) - consistent positive cash flow (good)
Continental (CLR) - negative cash flow every year :thumbsdown:
Noble Energy (NBL) - negative cash flow most years :thumbsdown:
Southwestern (SWN) - negative cash flow every year :thumbsdown:
Anadarko (APC) - on the fence, some years are good and some bad
Pioneer (PXD) - negative cash flow most years :thumbsdown:
EOG (EOG) - negative cash flow most years :thumbsdown:
Occidental (OXY) - sometimes has positive cash flow
Concho (CXO) - negative cash flow every year :thumbsdown:
Range Resources (RRC) - negative cash flow every year :thumbsdown:
Hess (HES) - negative cash flow every year :thumbsdown:
Devon (DVN) - negative cash flow every year :thumbsdown:
Chesapeake (CHK) - horribly negative cash flow every year :thumbsdown: !!
Apache (APA) - negative cash for the past two years (thumbs down)


Now compare that with a real oil company. Exxon. Insanely good cash flow every year. Exxon will still exist 10 years from now. Most of those other ones are financed by cheap credit. Lower oil prices just bring the inevitable bankruptcies ahead a couple years.

edit
The forum blocked my post because it contained too many thumbs down. Even the forum can't deal with this many fake oil companies.

lol

You do understand that Tennessee has one of the lowest debts per capita? Tennessee's public pensions are ~95% funded. Compare that to California and Illinois. And we had a decent health insurance program for the poor and others who could not get insurance due to preexisting conditions... well until obama fucked it up.

Anyway... please point out where I said "a poor state was due to graft and corruption by the governing class." My post was clearly worded to suggest that many of Russia's economic problems stem from corruption at all levels of their (RUSSIA's)government and not because of a 13% flat tax.

Well . . . We had A health insurance program for the poor and others who could not get insurance due to preexisting conditions. Don't know I'd call it decent. Like Obamacare, it was implemented with a lot of envisioning where we wanted to go and very little analysis of the paths that would actually take us there.

If things are really this bad for the general public in Russia, why is Putin so popular?

When you murder all the journalists who don't sing the official Putin hymn, people tend to hear the official Putin hymn.

 

[piasabird]

Russia as a state is heavily invested in oil. If the price drops so does the power of Russia. Do you own any Russian exports? Do you purchase food from Russia? If the answer is no then maybe Russia does not really have a thriving economy as far as the USA goes. Russia also makes a lot of money selling weapons to people that want to kill us.

 

[Genx87]

http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/24/new...40-billion-oil-sanctions/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

140 billion dollar shrink would be a contraction of close to 6%. Their currency has shrunk 27% since the crisis began. The pressure must be mounting as Putin is now falling back on claiming the west wants regime change in Moscow.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/lavrov-says-west-is-seeking-regime-change-in-russia-1416672419

 

[DucatiMonster696]

They have a supply sider's dream 13% flat income tax. Clearly they must be a prosperous country, it just hasn't trickled down yet.

Russia's state of economic affairs has nothing to due with its flat tax on income. It has everything to do with the economic sanctions (warfare via economics) brought on by the US and the EU and the oh so timely drop in the price of oil (i.e. the US friendly Saudis not reducing their own oil production in order to drive out other players in the market) that have basically taken the legs out of their economy.

 

[senseamp]

It's true that the 13% flat tax is a curious symptom of the disease plaguing Russia, not the cause.
Democratic countries don't allow this sort of wealth transfer to the top for long. Dictatorial oligarchies do. Just like they allow Putin to raid their pension savings to bail out big corporations. Or they allow him to send people to fight in Donbas and lie about it.

 

[norseamd]

It's true that the 13% flat tax is a curious symptom of the disease plaguing Russia, not the cause. Democratic countries don't allow this sort of wealth transfer to the top for long. Dictatorial oligarchies do. Just like they allow Putin to raid their pension savings to bail out big corporations. Or they allow him to send people to fight in Donbas and lie about it.

So just a question. What is your ethnicity?

 

[norseamd]

140 billion dollar shrink would be a contraction of close to 6%. Their currency has shrunk 27% since the crisis began. The pressure must be mounting as Putin is now falling back on claiming the west wants regime change in Moscow.

Everyone does.

 

[senseamp]

So just a question. What is your ethnicity?

Why do you care? Do you separate people based on it?

 

[DucatiMonster696]

It's true that the 13% flat tax is a curious symptom of the disease plaguing Russia, not the cause.
Democratic countries don't allow this sort of wealth transfer to the top for long. Dictatorial oligarchies do. Just like they allow Putin to raid their pension savings to bail out big corporations. Or they allow him to send people to fight in Donbas and lie about it.

Really? Have you looked at Venezuela recently and the economic mess they are in right now? 60% inflation rate that has devalued their currency to the point that its approaching Zimbabwe levels of worthlessness if it continues depreciating. Then you have Murduro and the gang passing more taxes, and handing more control over the economy to the idiots in that government via the 28 new laws that were passed.

 

[senseamp]

Really? Have you looked at Venezuela recently and the economic mess they are in right now? 60% inflation rate that has devalued their currency to the point that its approaching Zimbabwe levels of worthlessness if it continues depreciating. Then you have Murduro and the gang passing more taxes, and handing more control over the economy to the idiots in that government via the 28 new laws that were passed.

And? We are talking about Russia here, not Venezuela.

 

[DucatiMonster696]

And? We are talking about Russia here, not Venezuela.

It addresses the point that "These economic woes would never happen in a "Democracy". That is unless of course Venezuela is not considered to be a democracy.

 

[norseamd]

Why do you care? Do you separate people based on it?

Not personally. Just wondering what might influence your beliefs. Again since you have obviously time and again denounced Putin I am not wanting to use it to say you are just some Russian propagandist. Ukrainian, Russian, something else?

 

[gevorg]

Not personally. Just wondering what might influence your beliefs. Again since you have obviously time and again denounced Putin I am not wanting to use it to say you are just some Russian propagandist. Ukrainian, Russian, something else?

Are you a sockpuppet? :hmm:

 

[Thump553]

Russia as a state is heavily invested in oil. If the price drops so does the power of Russia. Do you own any Russian exports? Do you purchase food from Russia? If the answer is no then maybe Russia does not really have a thriving economy as far as the USA goes. Russia also makes a lot of money selling weapons to people that want to kill us.

Wow, 56 posts in before someone even touches upon the major reason the Russian economy is tanking. Two thirds of the Russian economy is energy based, $80 a barrel oil is going to hurt an already very weak economy very badly. The sanctions aren't doing them any favors either, especially coupled with vast corruption and criminal control of large segments of their economy.

I don't think it is fair to hold up Russia as any example of a leftist economy, or a flat tax paradise either. They are resource rich basketcase for many reasons unrelated to political philosophy.

 

[norseamd]

Wow, 56 posts in before someone even touches upon the major reason the Russian economy is tanking. Two thirds of the Russian economy is energy based, $80 a barrel oil is going to hurt an already very weak economy very badly. The sanctions aren't doing them any favors either, especially coupled with vast corruption and criminal control of large segments of their economy. I don't think it is fair to hold up Russia as any example of a leftist economy, or a flat tax paradise either. They are resource rich basketcase for many reasons unrelated to political philosophy.

Was actually going to make a separate topic on the current oil warfare.