The Official 2020 General Election returns thread CONTAINS NSFW IMAGES IN POST 3,884

[MrSquished]

AZ called for Biden by Fox.

 

[fskimospy]

Fox News calls Arizona for Biden. As per 538 this means Trump is in deep shit even if he wins Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. (~85% Biden win even with all those)

This is why you don’t talk too early about the results.

 

[BUTCH1]

Popular vote going Trump last I saw. Yet all I hear is crying about the ec.

Still many, many votes to be tallied but yes, the EC should be done with, no other country uses anything but popular
vote and lets face it, if your a Rep. voting in CA, you probably won't waste time voting, your vote is already null and void.
Similarly, if your a Dem voting in TN your vote is null and void, if everything was a simple general election candidates
would have to pay attention across the country and change the platform accordingly.

 

[manly]

A landslide would be cleaner for either side but democracy itself thrives off a close and contested decision. In fact, for all the complaints about Trump's damage to our democracy, the record voter turnouts he has generated (both for and against him) have inarguably strengthened it (albeit in spite of him). Of course, that wouldn't apply to a 2nd term Trump, once set free from re-election concerns.

I guess I'll explain it further. One of the rough scenarios appears to be playing out now. Trump has a lead in PA & MI, but we know it will take days to count the mail-in ballots. Meanwhile, he's going to declare himself the victor and sue to stop the states from completing the vote count. That's the concern.

 

[alexruiz]

AZ called for Biden by Fox.

CNN and MSNBC still have it at 75% of total.
My TV doesn't get faux, it is a smart TV

 

[Greenman]

Looks to me like Joe has it in the bag. I hope he does well.

 

[cliftonite]

Looks to me like Joe has it in the bag. I hope he does well.

Why do you say that? He is down in PA, MI, WI Needs at least one.

 

[shady28]

Agree. Some mostly complete counts, as comparisons from tonight:
Florida: +6% shift to Trump vs. 538 forecast [from Biden +2.5 to Trump+3.5]
North Carolina: +3% shift to Trump
Ohio: +7% shift to Trump

These are all terrible results for Biden, and strongly imply that his +4 or +5 poll lead in Pennsylvania is at significant risk.

Edit: and also, shows how terrible pollsters have been (with pollsters pretending to claim "95%" confidence intervals that are half the magnitude of these misses...)

Openly bias pollsters (Like Nate Silver) with leading questions on polls along with the use of polling as a means of voter suppression (this is a well known tactic, often used in 3rd world republics in Africa and S America) has pissed off a lot of folks. The free polling information that the public sees is meant to control the public, that's very clear. As a result there is a good chunk of people who won't speak to them, and a smaller chunk who will lie to them and tell them what they want to hear. Guess which side those people come from.

I don't think PA, GA, IA, or OH are in play anymore. Called or not they shifted decisively towards Trump. Trump has FL in the bag now. TX has turned red too, did a while back really even when the counts showed blue if you know where the liberals concentrate, the early 'blue' results were from early results from Houston, San Antonio, Dallas. Then the rest of the state voted.

NC, WI, and MI are all Biden has left to pin hopes on IMO. Those states are looking good for Trump but not quite there yet.

The map looks almost identical to 2016. Maybe because Democrats look almost identical to 2016.

 

[fskimospy]

Why do you say that? He is down in PA, MI, WI Needs at least one.

Talking about results this woefully incomplete is pointless.

 

[pete6032]

Fox News calls Arizona for Biden. As per 538 this means Trump is in deep shit even if he wins Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. (~85% Biden win even with all those)

This is why you don’t talk too early about the results.

Where are you seeing that, can you share a link?

 

[ondma]

I am looking at the AP results. They give Binden 209 votes, with 25 other votes leaning blue. That is 234 so he has to pick up 36 votes from states that are leaning red, or NV which has not reported yet. He is trailing by 5 to 10 points in Wi, Mi, Oh, and Pa(!!). And he would have to come from behind in not just one, but two of them. I dont see how anyone can not say it is an uphill battle at this point.

 

[fskimospy]

Where are you seeing that, can you share a link?

Elections 2020 | Fox News

Follow the latest race results, candidates, and events leading up to the 2020 Presidential Election.

www.foxnews.com

 

[gothuevos]

Can Biden overcome a half million deficit with 50% counted, even with the majority of early/absentee votes not yet counted??

 

[woolfe9998]

Talking about results this woefully incomplete is pointless.

Especially since the early vote is severely undercounted in those three states.

Still, I had hoped Biden would do better in some of those other states and that it wouldn't come down to those three midwestern states again, but it has.

We won't know the result for at least another day because some imbeciles in those states decided to not let them start counting mail-in votes until today.

 

[manly]

Where are you seeing that, can you share a link?

Explore The Ways Trump Or Biden Could Win The Election

Choose whether President Trump or Joe Biden will win each state in the 2020 presidential election and we’ll recalculate whether they have a path to 270 electoral votes and what their chance is of winning the Electoral College.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

I just played with it and what fskimospy wrote is true only if you assume the Blue Wall holds.

I'm watching ABC News and they don't have any good analytics on county-level data as the votes are being counted. Matt Dowd just said that MI is misleading because the current vote is weighted heavily to in-person ballots.

 

[Dave_5k]

Why do you say that? He is down in PA, MI, WI Needs at least one.

Biden needs 2 of those (plus Arizona), given other potential swing states are mostly lost. Best chance left for Biden is MI+WI, plus AZ, plus Nebraska 2nd. But none of those 4 are certain. I see the Arizona call as very premature given distorted counts (nearly 100% of early voting / mail-in ballots counted, but major portion of election day votes not yet counted). Pennsylvania still a toss-up, Biden doing terrible in eastern Ohio as proxy for western Penn.

 

[NWRMidnight]

Can Biden overcome a half million deficit with 50% counted, even with the majority of early/absentee votes not yet counted??

Keep in mind, majority of the mail in ballots are going to be democrat

 

[fskimospy]

I am looking at the AP results. They give Binden 209 votes, with 25 other votes leaning blue. That is 234 so he has to pick up 36 votes from states that are leaning red, or NV which has not reported yet. He is trailing by 5 to 10 points in Wi, Mi, Oh, and Pa(!!). And he would have to come from behind in not just one, but two of them. I dont see how anyone can not say it is an uphill battle at this point.

Looking at incomplete results is pointless unless you know where the remaining results are from.

In PA for example the large majority of uncounted votes are from in and around Philly. This is why I reiterated that people predicted weeks ago that Trump would appear to be in the lead in PA on election night regardless of the actual outcome.

 

[Wreckem]

Can Biden overcome a half million deficit with 50% counted, even with the majority of early/absentee votes not yet counted??

In PA? Based on party affiliation Dems have over a 1million vote lead in absentee votes. The outstanding absentee vote in Philly can wipe away Trumps lead by itself.

 

[alien42]

CNN just called VA for Biden

 

[Artorias]

Could someone explain how mail-votes can be thrown out? In what world is that ok unless there is blatant fraud?

 

[alien42]

Could someone explain how mail-votes can be thrown out? In what world is that ok unless there is blatant fraud?

it's the Republican way.

 

[Vic]

I guess I'll explain it further. One of the rough scenarios appears to be playing out now. Trump has a lead in PA & MI, but we know it will take days to count the mail-in ballots. Meanwhile, he's going to declare himself the victor and sue to stop the states from completing the vote count. That's the concern.

I agree that that's a very serious concern. And have already said so in this thread.

 

[ivwshane]

Could someone explain how mail-votes can be thrown out? In what world is that ok unless there is blatant fraud?

States match up signatures to what is on file. Most people don’t have consistent signatures and their votes get contested.

 

[Wreckem]

Explore The Ways Trump Or Biden Could Win The Election

Choose whether President Trump or Joe Biden will win each state in the 2020 presidential election and we’ll recalculate whether they have a path to 270 electoral votes and what their chance is of winning the Electoral College.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

I just played with it and what fskimospy wrote is true only if you assume the Blue Wall holds.

I'm watching ABC News and they don't have any good analytics on county-level data as the votes are being counted. Matt Dowd just said that MI is misleading because the current vote is weighted heavily to in-person ballots.

Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA are all heavily slanted to in person votes right now. Dems lead substantially in the mail in votes.

 

[ivwshane]

Ohio goes to trump.