And... this is why Trump was so against this. He knows this to be the case, and will go to court if he loses this election because of mail in voting.
Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA are all heavily slanted to in person votes right now. Dems lead substantially in the mail in votes.
But places like Iowa and Indiana went for Obama in 2008...how do you explain that?
Popular vote going Trump last I saw. Yet all I hear is crying about the ec.
States match up signatures to what is on file. Most people don’t have consistent signatures and their votes get contested.
Yes, it's almost exactly like 2016 in that the Republicans want to stop the vote counting as soon as they have enough votes to win.And... this is why Trump was so against this. He knows this to be the case, and will go to court if he loses this election because of mail in voting.
Yeah too early to panic. Obviously I'd hoped that 538 modeling was more accurate and Biden would be crushing it right now.Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA are all heavily slanted to in person votes right now. Dems lead substantially in the mail in votes.
Trump and the GOP pulled the old rope-a-dope again. I warned of it here months ago. It's a proven strategy to depress your opponent's voter turnout, by convincing them they've already won. Nate Silver and 538 are either in on it, or useful idiots.Yeah too early to panic. Obviously I'd hoped that 538 modeling was more accurate and Biden would be crushing it right now.
I was just objecting to those that are already saying Biden is in good to great shape to get 270. I don't think that level of optimism is warranted yet.
Also seems like flipping the Senate isn't happening either.
Yeah too early to panic. Obviously I'd hoped that 538 modeling was more accurate and Biden would be crushing it right now.
I was just objecting to those that are already saying Biden is in good to great shape to get 270. I don't think that level of optimism is warranted yet.
We'd have to see granular exit poll data to reach that conclusion. Based on aggregate vote counts, seems like the 2008 huge wave of volume is recurring.Trump and the GOP pulled the old rope-a-dope again. I warned of it here months ago. It's a proven strategy to depress your opponent's voter turnout, by convincing them they've already won. Nate Silver and 538 are either in on it, or useful idiots.
They shouldn't, but the GOP has lined every court with appointees (including the SC) that in a close, contested election,Could someone explain how mail-votes can be thrown out? In what world is that ok unless there is blatant fraud?
In PA? Based on party affiliation Dems have over a 1million vote lead in absentee votes. The outstanding absentee vote in Philly can wipe away Trumps lead by itself.
Yeah Trumpity Dumpity will convince his base. But don't see how the courts can give excuse to stop counting when it's 60% of the votes are confirmed to be received but just need to be processed.Yes, it's almost exactly like 2016 in that the Republicans want to stop the vote counting as soon as they have enough votes to win.
Where are you seeing a million still left?
Looks like Dekalb and Fulton counties are still mostly uncounted. Same with Milwaukie, Wayne, and Philadelphia counties. This ain't over yet, but I still worry that all of the votes will be counted.We'd have to see granular exit poll data to reach that conclusion. Based on aggregate vote counts, seems like the 2008 huge wave of volume is recurring.
538 certainly isn't perfect but they just model the inputs (polls) that they are given, along with their own algos. So I wouldn't say they're in on it. Earlier when ABC's gang interviewed Nate, it looked to me like he wasn't comfortable with the state of the election (i.e. either on a personal level, or because his probabilities haven't matched the results so far).
Hmm, there's a massive shift in NYT's needle for GA right now with 80% of precincts reporting. I don't know if that's a glitch. There was a ton of vote left to count around Atlanta metro but when I spot-checked it, I didn't think it was enough to close the gap.
I'm baffled at NYT's needle for GA. The gap Biden needs to make up is 300k, and I don't think there are enough votes remaining in Atlanta metro.Looks like Dekalb and Fulton counties are still mostly uncounted. Same with Milwaukie, Wayne, and Philadelphia counties. This ain't over yet, but I still worry that all of the votes will be counted.
Throw Allegheny county in there too. It was at 17% according to The NY Times. There’s a lot left to count.Looking at incomplete results is pointless unless you know where the remaining results are from.
In PA for example the large majority of uncounted votes are from in and around Philly. This is why I reiterated that people predicted weeks ago that Trump would appear to be in the lead in PA on election night regardless of the actual outcome.
Biden needs 300k votes to flip GA, are there really that many votes in atlanta?Throw Allegheny county in there too. It was at 17% according to The NY Times. There’s a lot left to count.
GA may still flip to Biden per The NY Times as well.
I had to sign on one of those tonight, my sig turned out surprisingly similar to my DL sig.Especially with regards to the electronic pads. Those things are horrid to write on.
For what it’s worth NYT currently gives Biden a 67% chance of winning Georgia.Biden needs 300k votes to flip GA, are there really that many votes in atlanta?