The Official 2020 General Election returns thread CONTAINS NSFW IMAGES IN POST 3,884

[brycejones]

Am I confused? Surely saying "Trump has no path to 270" is the same thing as saying "Biden is certain to get 270"?

You didn't mention Michigan, though. If Biden has NV, WI and Michigan he's made it, no? Is that not how it works?

Biden needs NV, WI, MI, AZ to close the deal. That puts him at exactly 270.

 

[UNCjigga]

While the Senate results were somewhat expected (I predicted Dems wouldn't take it) I'm somewhat shocked at what's going on with the House races. Dems went into Election Day expecting to pad their healthy House margin of control, and instead Republicans picked up significant victories (including QAnon girl in Georgia and youngest House member ever from NC.)

Thus far, GOP has picked up 5 seats, and Dems margin of control is now just +10 with 55 races left to call. While most outlets are projecting Dems retain control of the House, it's now statistically possible for GOP to take control.

Lots of takes on Twitter pointing to how BAD the polling still is (always has been) for state/downballot races.

 

[hal2kilo]

Looks to me like the East-Mid-West. Or maybe the far-West-North-East?

I grew up on the east coast, I have lived in Chicago. Upper mid west seems familiar as a self described part of the US there. What was weird to me is when I moved out west, and people described the mid west as east. Yea, east of where you live but it's the mid west.

 

[cliftonite]

While the Senate results were somewhat expected (I predicted Dems wouldn't take it) I'm somewhat shocked at what's going on with the House races. Dems went into Election Day expecting to pad their healthy House margin of control, and instead Republicans picked up significant victories (including QAnon girl in Georgia and youngest House member ever from NC.)

Thus far, GOP has picked up 5 seats, and Dems margin of control is now just +10 with 55 races left to call. While most outlets are projecting Dems retain control of the House, it's now statistically possible for GOP to take control.

Lots of takes on Twitter pointing to how BAD the polling still is (always has been) for state/downballot races.

Did not expect them to lose freaking MI senate. Unreal.

 

[ondma]

From what I'm seeing, Trump no longer has a viable path to 270, as NV, AZ, and WI are in the bag for Biden, and Trump still loses even if he wins PA, NC, and GA.

Nevada is very close with 67% reporting. If Trump comes back there Biden has to take Pa, NC, or Ga.

 

[zinfamous]

That’s not how our Constitution works, by design

sure...but only when you accept that a person can be 3/5ths of a person.

I mean, that's what you are supporting within this argument of yours.

 

[zinfamous]

I think the Romans had it figured out : It was called Bread and Circus

Huh. Is that what the "Bread and Circus" party that I saw on the MD ballot is all about?

 

[UNCjigga]

Did not expect them to lose freaking MI senate. Unreal.

I'm trying to figure out what the overall narrative is. Did The Lincoln Project potentially win the Presidency for Biden? Did "Save the Police" and "Stop Socialism" define Congressional races? The only thing explaining GOP Senate/House results outperforming Trump seems to be centrist Republicans/Independents voting Biden and then splitting the ticket.

Not sure MI Senate race is a done deal yet.

 

[Jhhnn]

Am I confused? Surely saying "Trump has no path to 270" is the same thing as saying "Biden is certain to get 270"?

You didn't mention Michigan, though. If Biden has NV, WI and Michigan he's made it, no? Is that not how it works?

Correct. Biden is leading in MI by .9% with most of the uncounted votes being in Democratic strongholds of Wayne, Genesee & Kalamazoo counties.

 

[linkgoron]

Nevada is very close with 67% reporting.

Yep. I'm not sure why people are saying that it's a done deal.

 

[Zorba]

From what I'm seeing, Trump no longer has a viable path to 270, as NV, AZ, and WI are in the bag for Biden, and Trump still loses even if he wins PA, NC, and GA.

NV is insanely close. Will either count military later? I think Penn said they'll take military through 11/10.

 

[IronWing]

it's the Midwest part that is messed up

You need to view it from the perspective of somebody on the east coast.

 

[hal2kilo]

Huh. Is that what the "Bread and Circus" party that I saw on the MD ballot is all about?

Was that really on the ballet? Or am I not seeing the irony.

 

[vi edit]

I think the answer is that Trump is a historically binary candidate ( you either love him or hate him) and the progressive block was a mirage that was oversampled on social media and not the ballot box. People were done with Trump but not willing to switch parties en masse.

See: Beshear winning KY gubernatorial last year while state reps were red down ticket.

 

[Wreckem]

From the NYT Live Election Page:

Presidential Election Results: Biden Wins (Published 2020)

Joseph R. Biden Jr. was elected the 46th president of the United States. See full results and maps from the 2020 presidential election.

www.nytimes.com

Reid Epstein, in Madison, Wis. 29m ago
The margin needs to be less than 1 percent for a recount in Wisconsin. Trump will have to pay about $3 million for it unless the margin is less than one quarter of 1 percent. See Wisconsin results ›

$3M for the recount? Better get that in advance since since it's Trump we're talking about here.

Generally recounts are bonded.

 

[Maxima1]

You think there will be a fair election in 2024 if Trump wins?

At present, it looks like Biden will not be able to do anything. Are we going to keep participating in this farce system? Historically, a party can go decades without the Senate. That looks to be the outlook here. Biden can't even get control of it with help of botched coronavirus response & bad economy. You suggest to me that Trump being reelected will lead to unfair elections, but the next challenger is positioned to at least be a little more competent than Trump and will complete even more of the Republican agenda anyway.

 

[Zorba]

While the Senate results were somewhat expected (I predicted Dems wouldn't take it) I'm somewhat shocked at what's going on with the House races. Dems went into Election Day expecting to pad their healthy House margin of control, and instead Republicans picked up significant victories (including QAnon girl in Georgia and youngest House member ever from NC.)

Thus far, GOP has picked up 5 seats, and Dems margin of control is now just +10 with 55 races left to call. While most outlets are projecting Dems retain control of the House, it's now statistically possible for GOP to take control.

Lots of takes on Twitter pointing to how BAD the polling still is (always has been) for state/downballot races.

It appears all polling this year was shit.

 

[Wreckem]

Nevada is close but it’s all mostly mail in ballots that arrived on Tuesday and provisional ballots. They are almost all from Clark County and Reno. At worst they will split 50/50. Most likely Biden will net votes.

 

[Wreckem]

It appears all polling this year was shit.

Yeah the down ballot mirage disappeared. Dems should hold the House by a 5-7 margin. Which is bad since they were expected to net 10-15.

 

[Paratus]

Saw a quote from 538 about the remaining vote in PA.

One small batch of 4700 mail-in votes from Allegheny County (Pittsburgh and surrounding area - got family in that area BTW) 80% went to Biden.

So while Trump has a lead in votes counted so far, the remaining areas are pro Dem and the types of ballots being counted are even further pro Dem as Dems were voting early by mail.

 

[Jhhnn]

Nevada is very close with 67% reporting. If Trump comes back there Biden has to take Pa, NC, or Ga.

It's close, but most uncounted votes are in Clark & Washoe counties who strongly favor Biden-

Nevada Election Results (Published 2020)

See full results and maps from the Nevada elections.

www.nytimes.com

Those counties are the bulk of the population in the state. Huge areas are basically uninhabited.

 

[dawp]

trump is already talking about demanding a recount in Wisconsin

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/cm/biden-trump-camps-launch-pr-182011827.html

The Trump campaign also plans to demand a recount in Wisconsin, where Biden pulled ahead by a slim margin Wednesday morning. The Midwestern battleground state allows a losing candidate to force a recount if the race stays within 1 percentage point.

 

[UNCjigga]

Not-Fun Fact: North Dakota just elected a Republican state legislator who died of COVID-19 last month. State Republicans will name a temporary fill-in until a special election is held.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/04/covid-candidate-north-dakota-election/

One could argue he represents the will of the people, as ND leads all states in the growth rates of Covid infection and death.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

unverified good news

 

[NWRMidnight]

There is no way Biden will win in PA.

1.4 million x 0.65 = 910,000 Biden + base

1.4 million x 0.35 = 490,000 Trump

490,000 + 600,000 = 1,090,000. Trump + base

Not even close, they have already counted half of the mail in ballots (there where 2.5 million). only 500k+ where republican requested ballots. you are trying to say that in the 1.4 Million ballots left to be counted, almost all of the republican ballots are there and very few where in the first half that has already been counted. Statistically impossible.