The official Hurricane Gustav Thread

[Chaotic42]

Originally posted by: Evadman
GFDL is correct when, never? I mean come on.

I have to admit that I haven't been studying the models much before Gustav, but GFDL has been bringing the thing quite literally right over my house for several days. I'm glad that it gave up on me!

 

[adairusmc]

Originally posted by: ViRGE
Louisiana has already declared a state of emergency.:laugh: I can't say I blame them though, that thing does look like it's gunning for the state.

I guess the calibration is done on the Halliburton Hurricane Machine. Looks to be right on target.

 

[kindest]

discovery channel needs to get out there in that storm in an unsinkable boat with 10 hd cameras and recordddddd.

 

[allisolm]

Well, that went from a tropical storm to cat 3 in a hurry. Looks like, barring some freaky turn, Tallahassee won't have to worry too much about this one, but I feel for the Louisiana folks. Good luck to all of you in the path. Stay safe!

 

[buck]

Interesting that the predict it to go to a cat4 then back down to a 3 when its in the middle of the gulf. GL to everyone in LA.

 

[JohnCU]

Originally posted by: buck
Interesting that the predict it to go to a cat4 then back down to a 3 when its in the middle of the gulf. GL to everyone in LA.

forecast discussion this morning said something about increasing wind shear

WTNT42 KNHC 300858
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

GUSTAV HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING VISIBLE AND DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS NOW VERY INTENSE. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS DOWN TO 965 MB...A DROP OF ABOUT 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. THE
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE CREW WERE 100
KT AROUND 6Z... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 90 KT AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...THUS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 95 KT.
OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT
PASS THROUGH GUSTAV COULD FIND A MAJOR HURRICANE.

FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE EXTREMELY WARM AND DEEP WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV. IN ADDITION...SINCE
THE LOOP CURRENT IS SOUTH OF ITS TYPICAL LOCATION...THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE NOT NEARLY AS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AS THEY COULD BE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HOPEFULLY
WEAKEN THE STORM PRIOR TO U.S. LANDFALL. HOWEVER...GUSTAV IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND THE NHC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL
LEFTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET/HWRF...WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE.
THESE TWO MODELS ARE SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO FORM OVER TEXAS TO TURN THE
STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. GUSTAV
WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER-TERM...WHICH
COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 20.2N 81.3W 95 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 21.2N 82.7W 105 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 22.9N 84.6W 110 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 24.6N 86.4W 115 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 26.5N 88.3W 110 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W 100 KT...NEAR LOUISIANA COAST
96HR VT 03/0600Z 30.5N 93.0W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0600Z 31.0N 94.0W 35 KT...INLAND

 

[nick1985]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: weadjust
I live in Mississippi and gas went up from $3.35 yesterday to as high as $3.71 today.

Let the price gouging begin.

That's not possible though.

Drop it. Don't drag this thread into the hells that the last one went.

vi edit
Off Topic Moderator

...and out comes Batshit McOwen


you've got a PM from me.

End the witch hunt you have for Dave.

vi edit
Off Topic Moderator

 

[JulesMaximus]

Have they done anything to reinforce the sea wall in New Orleans since Katrina or is the Gulf of Mexico going to spill over into the city again causing billions of dollars worth of damage?

 

[Smoke]

I believe they only repaired the areas that failed during Katrina.

Buses are ready for evacuation.

















/sitting in Biloxi/ :roll:

 

[Rio Rebel]

There has been too much spilling over of arguments from P&N, particularly about DMCOWEN. We have had multiple conversations about this in the mod forms, and I am laying down the law NOW.

Neither side has been blameless, and plenty of warnings have gone out. Now this is it. I don't want to see another post attacking Dave or mentioning any argument involving Dave. And I don't want to see another post FROM Dave dragging these arguments here.

Both sides have been warned. It doesn't matter who started it, and it doesn't matter who has had the upper hand. This crap is OVER in OT. Leave it in P&N.

Rio Rebel
Senior Moderator

 

[zoiks]

Lake New Orleans?

 

[squirrel dog]

Why should anyone in New Orleans Worry ??

 

[JohnCU]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...e_us/gustav_gulf_coast

lines a mile long, wow

 

[Mill]

Gustav is now a high end Cat 4. He has the chance to reach Cat 5 status before making landfall in Cuba. Landfall in Cuba should not weaken him too much. The hope is that some shear and lower SSTs over the northern Gulf will lead him to weaken before landfall in LA.

 

[CorCentral]

Originally posted by: Mill
Gustav is now a high end Cat 4. He has the chance to reach Cat 5 status before making landfall in Cuba. Landfall in Cuba should not weaken him too much. The hope is that some shear and lower SSTs over the northern Gulf will lead him to weaken before landfall in LA.

Damn, it went from a tropical storm to a cat. 4 in one day? :Q

 

[Shawn]

LA is gonna get creamed

 

[buck]

Hopefully the windsheer will soften the blow....

Any members in the area that will be riding this out?

 

[TallBill]

My company had a huge evacuation email circling around asking for places to stay.

 

[RedCOMET]

Originally posted by: buck
Hopefully the windsheer will soften the blow....

Any members in the area that will be riding this out?

I'll be in Lafayette, LA... riding out the storm i think.. probably not a good idea.

 

[allisolm]

Originally posted by: RedCOMET

I'll be in Lafayette, LA... riding out the storm i think.. probably not a good idea.

Well, don't forget - even if you're sitting on your roof, floating downstream, being photographed by a news helicopter, we expect that you'll still be posting to ATOT. Here's hoping it won't come to that.

 

[CasioTech]

damn, Miami has had the most beautiful weather these past 2 weeks. And there is yet another wonderful storm heading towards us (but not near us) which will add another week of wonderful winds and beautiful skies.

 

[BUTCH1]

It's pulling clouds across the state (FL) like a giant shop-vac right now, expect further gas price increases as this develops, prices locally jumped 10-12 cents last couple of days..

 

[CTrain]

4 yrs ago, God decided to punish Fla with 3 hurricanes.
Now he wants to punish La, with another potential cat 4-5 hurricane.

 

[MrBond]

One of my sister's friends moved to LA earlier this summer to work at a university down there. She moved there not knowing anyone and never even having been to the campus. The last I talked to her, she didn't like it down there very much.

She's between Shreveport and Monroe - it looks like the hurricane is headed right her way. Now we don't have hurricanes in Ohio, so she's probably freaking out right now. Assuming it's a Cat 3/4 when it hits land, how bad will it be when it gets farther north?

 

[Rio Rebel]

I grew up on the Mississippi coast, and my parents are still there (debating whether to drive up to Hattiesburg to be safe). My prayers are with ya'll. Stay safe.