Mothers, already sick and tired of underfoot, broken, stepped on, fought over and lost Wii controllers are now looking at a system that retains those controllers and then adds another 'master' controller with a glass screen that is absolutely guaranteed to ignite some hard fought battles over it's control in multiplayer games and will cost $150 to replace ... when they become available. There was a reason the Kinect was the fastest selling electronics device ever - mothers. Nothing to step on, break, fight over or lose. A mother's dream scenario.
Mothers everywhere are going to take one look at the Wii U and say H*LL NO, not in MY house.
So much for the 'family' market.
The screen controller is the polar opposite of the Wii's 'just pick up and play' simplicity that attracted tens of millions of new 'casual' players. Each Wii U game will require some learning curve, some fairly simple, some complicated and complex and require looking up and down at the tv and controller. All those casual Wii buyers that bought based on easy simplicity and instant playability aren't going to buy in to the Wii U. Especially now that they are aware of the Kinect's hands free model.
So much for the 'casual' market.
The Wii U graphics are approximately on par with consoles that are over half a decade old and next year Microsoft and Sony debut next gen consoles whose graphics and AI will blow the Wii U away. It doesn't matter that once the developers learn the hardware the game's graphics will get much better, by then the next gen consoles will be out and totally pwn anything the Wii U will ever be capable of ... and the developers will be using their money and manpower to make games for the two next gen systems they know will sell like hotcakes to their core demographic into the foreseeable future. The hard core market will have no interest in throwing their money away on a console that doesn't even provide the graphics and frame rate of current games on their present consoles, not to mention the Wii U's online ecosystem is far cruder than what already exists on the Xbox and PS3. Gamers already on the PS3 and/or Xbox 360 have no reason to buy the Wii U. And they won't. Xbox/PS4/PC developers are going to drop the Wii U.
So much for the 'hard core' market.
Nintendo has been losing money for the last few quarters. I predict Wii U sales are going to fall off rapidly after the holiday season ~ fan boy satiation and fall off a cliff after Microsoft and Sony first demo their new consoles and especially after Microsoft first demonstrates what the Kinect 2 will be capable of. After that Nintendo is going deep into the red with no prospect of seeing black with the Wii U. It's going to get very bloody.
Expect that first Xbox 720 and PS4 reveal to start sooner than later, probably during the January shows. No need to wait once the holiday sales taper off, time to start building buzz. E3 will just be the coup de grace.
To top that off Sony's financial situation appears sufficiently dire to drive speculation in the investment community it, along with Panasonic, may not survive another year with Sony being considered the bigger dog of the two. That creates a hard financial reality. If Sony markets a powerful 'future proof' next gen console that sells at an appreciable loss for two or three years the investment and ratings communities are going to break out the lead pipes and blowtorches and go to work.
Sony HAS to sell it's hardware in the black a.s.a.p. and do so at a price low enough to sell enough units to be viable. That means a console 'just powerful enough'. It's almost certain to be substantially less powerful than Microsoft's gaming console, and yet far more expensive than Microsoft's 'online/TV' console. Sony is walking a tightrope.
Microsoft can surely smell the blood in the water. With Nintendo wandering in the street with it's finger up it's nose, only a very vulnerable Sony stands between it and console gaming hegemony and it has VERY deep pockets. With it's dual SKUs and low price of entry subscription models and a willingness to stay in the red for a while with the full gaming console it can offer the Xbox 720 for a price Sony simply can't match, even selling cheaper less capable hardware. The Kinect 2 being included on both SKUs might well seal the deal.
Bit audacious, but seems possible if Microsoft decides to go that route.
Even if Sony survives, Microsoft is almost certain to win the lions share of the market. Console gaming in two years might be a very different animal than it is at present. As in Microsoft being the last man standing.
This would clear the way for Microsoft, using the two next gen SKU's processors, to release an Xbox Gaming tablet, Xbox Gaming laptop and Xbox Gaming desktop (and in time an Xbox Phone I suppose) at very reasonable prices and power envelopes and all playing Xbox console games purchased through the Xbox Store and locked down with online DRM.
Why buy an expensive gaming computer if a $500 rig can do the job? Why buy from Steam when Microsoft offers a much better immediate value proposition. It would effectively extend Microsoft's console model across all segments of computing.
Wouldn't hurt AMD's bottom line either.
I can see why Gabe Newell is so freaked out by what Microsoft is doing.