Ok, but do we know that that's going to be the clock speed and performance gap though?
Nope, we have no idea. We don't know what the clockspeed is going to be, we don't know what Intel's pricing will be, we don't know how well the 12-core will scale. Nor AMD's MCM setup. We don't know what extras Intel will ship with, and we don't know what extras AMD may have in store.
I mean, I've seen some benchmarks for content creation (Premiere Pro) where the 1800x runs extremely close to the 6900k, and beats the 6850k, so I have a very hard time seeing a 16 core chip only managing to beat the 6950k by 10%.
Maybe, but the Premiere tests I've seen show the 6900k with a clear lead given many actions don't scale particularly well (the multithread-friendly benches are close, but don't comprise a clear majority of the work), and to be clear, the comparison was to a 3.1Ghz processor, not the 1800X. If we assume all other things equal, and the IPC is the same, (3.1 * 16 - 4.3 * 10) / 3.1 * 16 = 15%. I knocked 5% off for IPC diff. :shrug: That's not to say that's a fair assessment of where the product will actually land - it's a well-OC'd 6950k compared to an assumed stock 3.1Ghz. I was merely pointing out that 3.1Ghz wouldn't really be worth much *by itself*. If it ships @3.1, but can OC to 4, that's a whole other story.
But, let's ignore Intel for a paragraph. If the 16 core is double an 1800X, it's basically giving $1000 perf (2 * 1800X) + 12pcie lanes. At that point, it's obviously worth more than $1000, but not so obviously worth $1500 (it isn't giving me 3x an 1800X even in just bandwidth, nevermind compute throughput). [I realize that Intel hasn't priced its HEDT in any kind of rational perf/$ manner, but, y'know, that's kind of why I don't own one of those chips, and if AMD follows suit, well, I won't own theirs either :shrug: ]
What makes this story even less compelling for AMD is that anyone who already is happy forking over $1500, and is sitting there with a 6950, has to think not only about whether the 16 core is worth the upgrade, but how it compares to the competing Skylake 12 core. Now, Intel could double-down on their high-price strategy, leave their 8-core at $1k, leave their 10-core at $1700, and put their 12-core at $2500. That, I think, leaves a lot of room for AMD to price at $1500. But I have a hard time believing that would happen, for exactly the reason you mention above. At the end of the day, for multithreaded apps, the 6900k is ~= a $500 Ryzen processor. Now, it almost certainly will overclock better, and the Skylake version will have better IPC, but I have a hard time envisioning it as selling for more than $600. That logically pulls down the 10 core to the $1000 range, and then maybe they can price the 12-core at $1700. If Skylake has 15% higher IPC than Ryzen, and can stable OC to 4.5, the 16-core Ryzen would have to OC to 3.9 to be equivalent for multi-threaded, and would still lose for any poorly-threaded code. It's an uphill battle being fought here....
It can come down to other features of the processor, though. There's been a number of rumors regarding 10GBE, and if the processor comes with a few 10GBE ports, that itself might be worth a couple of hundred. I mean, the first is almost certainly worth a G, maybe even two, but it's unclear if most of us would be able to take advantage of more than that (server, yes, HEDT?). Are there other unique features? Stick a few graphics pipelines on the thing and stuff them behind something that supports software already using Intel's Quicksync and I'd be more than ready to throw two grand at them. Low-precision matrix multiplies for machine learning? 128bit floating point math for high-end physics? It's niche stuff, but valuable for segments of the market. AMD keeps mentioning their custom hardware capabilities, maybe it's time to heat up the market and start using it? The really awesome thing about using the Naples socket for HEDT is that two 1800Xs take up only half the total available area. At some point, someone is going to think to stick other stuff in there....
I *don't* think we're getting Ripper-16 for $800, but, if we believe that they want to repeat their "same perf for half the money" story, it seems reasonable to expect the 12-core to slot right about there. I still think the most logical pricing is 6/9/12 for 8/12/16 TR cores, with the 1800X getting a $50 haircut, but, I've been wrong before, and lord knows I'll be wrong again soon enough, so, we'll just have to wait and see!