The Skeptical Optimist

[dullard]

I have been searching for a thread on The Skeptical Optimist, where the website's author (Steve Conover) came on P&N and debated for a couple of days. Unfortunately I can't find the thread and I don't remember his username here.

I remember this about it:
[*]Someone posted the thread with a link to The Skeptical Optimist, it was around Oct 2005 (give or take a month).
[*]I posted on it dissing his website.
[*]Mr. Conover came on and was angry at me.
[*]I replied with my logic and my predictions.
[*]He defended his views, said I was all wrong, and complained about someone else who doesn't answer questions.
[*]I asked a question.
[*]He never answered.

Months later... Everything I predicted has come true.

So I want to find that thread for my own personal satisfaction. Can anyone find it? I've struggled with the search button for a long time and can't find it myself. But maybe one of the other posters in that thread remembers a key word to search for or his username.

Thanks.

 

[jlmadyson]

Well, I'm not sure which particular thread you are looking for, but I know ShadesOfGrey has referenced that website in another thread; whether or not he is the author and/or the person you're lookig for I'm not sure.

 

[jlmadyson]

Found it;

Text

said author username: SteveSr

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: jlmadyson
Found it;

Text

said author username: SteveSr

Thank you very much. That is the thread. What did you search for? I tried for over an hour with variations of "optimist123", "steve", "conover", "debt", heck I even searched for myself. I suck at searching and found nothing.

 

[jlmadyson]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: jlmadyson
Found it;

Text

said author username: SteveSr

Thank you very much. That is the thread. What did you search for? I tried for over an hour with variations of "optimist123", "steve", "conover", "debt", heck I even searched for myself. I suck at searching and found nothing.

AS, debt, archived messages, P/N.

 

[SteveSr]

Everything you predicted has come true?

To remove the public grandstanding factor that apparently motivates you, let's discuss this via private email -- with the understanding that either one of us will be free to subsequently publish anything that transpires during that exchange.

I have a few questions for you; the answers will help me judge whether further discussion will be just another waste of my time. Let's do this via email. My address is freely available at my site.

 

[jlmadyson]

That was quick.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: SteveSr
Everything you predicted has come true?

Isn't grandstanding the point of a public blog? I'll have to think about that one.

My premise was that at the time of that thread (Oct 15, 2005) it was NOT a good time to be optimistic. Things were happening that clearly pointed towards some rough times ahead (referring specifically to the debt-GDP data and inflation data on your themometer webpage). Yes, the economy is still going along nicely (I never stated that it isn't), but there are troubling signs.

What has happened to your closely watched numbers since then?

Debt to GDP ratio listed on your website:
[*]Sept 2005: 64.5%
[*]Oct 2005: 64.8%
[*]Nov 2005: 65.2%
[*]Dec 2005: 64.8%
[*]Jan 2006: 65.3%
[*]Feb 2006: 65.4%
[*]Mar 2006: 66.0% (You changed the webpage, is this the correct number that matches the other numbers? If not, I'll edit this post).

In the short term, the debt/GDP ratio got worse - which was my premise.

Inflation number listed on your website:
[*]Sept 2005: 2.6%
[*]Oct 2005: 3.1%
[*]Nov 2005: 3.0%
[*]Dec 2005: 3.3%
[*]Jan 2006: 3.0%
[*]Feb 2006: 3.3%
[*]Mar 2006: I didn't find it on your webstie, but I didn't search hard yet either.

Again, short term, the inflation number got worse.

I think your graph here shows my point quite well. On Oct 2005, that graph had been horizontal for about 2 years. However, I said that was not the time to be optimistic. Look at the graph to see what has happened since.

You have a good website, and some valid points. I just think a little tweaking of the optimist attitude at times and it'll become a great website.

Send me a PM if you want further discussions in private. I perfer public discourse, but I will go private if you wish.

 

[ShockwaveVT]

Bah, nobody reads P&N to see people setting up private discussions.

Edit:

and I like how SteveSr always refers people to his website to obtain his e-mail address, rather than facilitating the commucation by posting it here...

kudos to dullard for responding in kind with a PM request.

to both of you for talking about talking in private but not initiating the private discussion.

 

[ShadesOfGrey]

I don't see how you can make the claim what you "predicted" came true. Just because short-term the debt-GDP has a slight upward tilt does not mean you were right about not being optomistic. 1.3% is rough times?
"rough times"? What rough times have we hit?

I am confused as to why you thought a callout/gloat thread was in order over this.

 

[edro]

I thought I would learn a little about economics in that thread.

I was wrong.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey
I am confused as to why you thought a callout/gloat thread was in order over this.

I refer you to this text: "So I want to find that thread for my own personal satisfaction."