The Supreme Court hears an Obamacare fairytale

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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,832
49,534
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Guess you chose not to read this post by Fern

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=37223800&postcount=18

Straight from the horse's mouth or should I say horse's ass.

Jonathan Gruber

Can you post any contemporaneous accounts by the people who actually drafted or voted on the legislation that it was their intent? (gruber provided input models, he didn't write it)

There are reams and reams and reams of statements from people on both sides that show the opposite.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,832
49,534
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Gruber opening his mouth and the fact other federal legislation often times has carrots for the states to act on their own, and the actual wording of the law. This thing has gone both ways in the courts. So I am not the only one that believes the carrot theory. The court system has weighed in that it also believes it. Which is how it landed on the SCOTUS docket.

While the administration would love to have us believe it was a transcript error. I dont think it was. The court system has on occasion also believed it wasnt. Now it will be upto the SCOTUS to decide its fate.

I have to say I don't find this very convincing. Congress most certainly does put carrots and sticks in their legislation, but when they do so they make it super obvious. In this case the carrots and sticks were so well hidden that even rabid opponents of the law, determined to overturn it by any means, didn't realize they existed for a year and a half.

Does that sound like the most likely answer to you?

But like I said. Even if many believe this was inserted for the very reason to push the states to build their own exchanges. I dont believe the SCOTUS will side with the plantiffs.

I also don't get why people would think that states building their own exchanges would be such a high priority that the federal government would attach tens of billions in annual subsidies to it. There's just no cost/benefit there.
 

emperus

Diamond Member
Apr 6, 2012
7,782
1,540
126
Gruber opening his mouth and the fact other federal legislation often times has carrots for the states to act on their own, and the actual wording of the law. This thing has gone both ways in the courts. So I am not the only one that believes the carrot theory. The court system has weighed in that it also believes it. Which is how it landed on the SCOTUS docket.

While the administration would love to have us believe it was a transcript error. I dont think it was. The court system has on occasion also believed it wasnt. Now it will be upto the SCOTUS to decide its fate.

But like I said. Even if many believe this was inserted for the very reason to push the states to build their own exchanges. I dont believe the SCOTUS will side with the plantiffs.

That's not what Gruber said. Just as you are attempting to take 4 words out of context in a 900 page bill you are doing the same with Gruber's words. Watch the video and start at minute 31.

The dishonesty of the right really is magnificent to watch.

Again, point to a contemporaneous account of anyone agreeing with you. Post the full transcript or video. Noone is interested in what you think today. Legislative intent is what matters. And everyone pro and con ACA believed the same thing.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,095
513
126
I have to say I don't find this very convincing. Congress most certainly does put carrots and sticks in their legislation, but when they do so they make it super obvious. In this case the carrots and sticks were so well hidden that even rabid opponents of the law, determined to overturn it by any means, didn't realize they existed for a year and a half.

Does that sound like the most likely answer to you?

Taken on its own to use history as an argument. I would agree it is an impossible sell. However Gruber literally made this case with his comments years ago. It is difficult to look at the writing of the law, his comments, and past history of federal legislation and not think this was a carrot on a stick for the states for me.


I also don't get why people would think that states building their own exchanges would be such a high priority that the federal government would attach tens of billions in annual subsidies to it. There's just no cost/benefit there.

Having the states take on the cost of their exchanges alone is a cost\benefit for the federal govt. With each state having their own insurance programs\mandates\backends the federal exchange would be a nightmare to build. As evidenced that it was indeed a nightmare to build. Hell even Oregon tried to build one for themselves and failed.

And I want to be perfectly clear for the third time in this thread. I dont believe the SCOTUS will side with the plantiffs.
 
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Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,095
513
126
That's not what Gruber said. Just as you are attempting to take 4 words out of context in a 900 page bill you are doing the same with Gruber's words. Watch the video and start at minute 31.

The dishonesty of the right really is magnificent to watch.

Again, point to a contemporaneous account of anyone agreeing with you. Post the full transcript or video. Noone is interested in what you think today. Legislative intent is what matters. And everyone pro and con ACA believed the same thing.

How does one listen to this and not believe that is what he said?

This is what he said around the 31:00 mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34rttqLh12U

Really? Somebody point blank asked him about state exchanges. His response is if the states dont do it themselves, they lose subsidies. So their citizens are paying taxes but not getting a benefit. So thus it is in the states best interest to build their own exchange. I'm not sure what other context one could put that in to some to a different conclusion.
 

emperus

Diamond Member
Apr 6, 2012
7,782
1,540
126
How does one listen to this and not believe that is what he said?

This is what he said around the 31:00 mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34rttqLh12U

Really? Somebody point blank asked him about state exchanges. His response is if the states dont do it themselves, they lose subsidies. So their citizens are paying taxes but not getting a benefit. So thus it is in the states best interest to build their own exchange. I'm not sure what other context one could put that in to some to a different conclusion.

This is the question and his reply.

Questioner: You mentioned the health-information [sic] Exchanges for the states, and it is my understanding that if states don’t provide them, then the federal government will provide them for the states.

Gruber: Yeah, so these health-insurance Exchanges, you can go on ma.healthconnector.org and see ours in Massachusetts, will be these new shopping places and they’ll be the place that people go to get their subsidies for health insurance. In the law, it says if the states don’t provide them, the federal backstop will. The federal government has been sort of slow in putting out its backstop, I think partly because they want to sort of squeeze the states to do it. I think what’s important to remember politically about this, is if you’re a state and you don’t set up an Exchange, that means your citizens don’t get their tax credits. But your citizens still pay the taxes that support this bill. So you’re essentially saying to your citizens, you’re going to pay all the taxes to help all the other states in the country. I hope that’s a blatant enough political reality that states will get their act together and realize there are billions of dollars at stake here in setting up these Exchanges, and that they’ll do it. But you know, once again, the politics can get ugly around this.
You see how the red and blue portions flow into the rest of the paragraph. He begins by saying that the exchanges are where people will go to get their subsidies. He continues by saying if the state doesn't set them up then the Federal government will. Then continues by saying that the Fed govt is acting slow to force the states to do it. Then continues by explaining the political calculations if the states haven't done it (explaining why the Feds are acting slow in setting up the Exchange). Inartfully said? Yes. But what you can do is find me someone who emphatically says that the subsidies were meant just for the states.
You get your point by parsing one portion of what he said. That's not how we speak or read.
 
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glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
And I want to be perfectly clear for the third time in this thread. I dont believe the SCOTUS will side with the plantiffs.

If SCOTUS didn't kill Obamacare last go-around I certainly don't think they'll mortally wound it this time either. That still doesn't make it a good law or justify the screwing that so many people get in the name of playing Santa Claus to a smaller group of other people. And the idea that the vast majority of voters want "Medicare for all" is a non-starter because most people would support universal coverage (dependent on cost) but Medicare doesn't poll well. Giving Medicare to those who are uninsured but I think the majority of people who have private insurance wouldn't be willing to move into Medicare.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
I do love the rationale used to achieve standing. See Fern's post #32. Basically the plaintiffs argue that they have the right to pay nothing for the services hospitals are required to provide to them, a right to mooch off the rest of us because their state has no exchange. Federal exchanges & subsidies, otoh, take away that right by requiring them to pay something, just like the rest of us.

Weasel words, start to finish.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,095
513
126
This is the question and his reply.

You see how the red and blue portions flow into the rest of the paragraph. He begins by saying that the exchanges are where people will go to get their subsidies. He continues by saying if the state doesn't set them up then the Federal government will. Then continues by saying that the Fed govt is acting slow to force the states to do it. Then continues by explaining the political calculations if the states haven't done it (explaining why the Feds are acting slow in setting up the Exchange). Inartfully said? Yes. But what you can do is find me someone who emphatically says that the subsidies were meant just for the states.
You get your point by parsing one portion of what he said. That's not how we speak or read.

And about the lack of subsidies for those states that use the federal exchange????? You seem to gloss right over that bomb. That isnt parsing words. He made is very clear that states that rely on the federal exchanges dont get tax breaks. But their citizens will still be forced to pay taxes without benefits. Hence the carrot on the stick for states to build their own exchanges.
 
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emperus

Diamond Member
Apr 6, 2012
7,782
1,540
126
And about the lack of subsidies for those states that use the federal exchange????? You seem to gloss right over that bomb. That isnt parsing words. He made is very clear that states that rely on the federal exchanges dont get tax breaks. But their citizens will still be forced to pay taxes without benefits.

Read this first.

In the law, it says if the states don’t provide them, the federal backstop will. The federal government has been sort of slow in putting out its backstop, I think partly because
they want to sort of squeeze the states to do it
.

Then this
I think what’s important to remember politically about this, is if you’re a state and you don’t set up an Exchange, that means your citizens don’t get their tax credits. But your citizens still pay the taxes that support this bill.
I think it's clear. In-artful, yes, but clear. Especially after he said that the Fed government will provide the Exchange as a backstop where by his words "people go to get their subsidies for health insurance".

But assuming you may believe he said that, why is so hard then to find any other person in the world who believed the same thing? This is what is deceptive about this whole thing. You are building an argument on one in-artful line by one person who agrees with you, where every other contemporaneous account doesn't.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,832
49,534
136
And about the lack of subsidies for those states that use the federal exchange????? You seem to gloss right over that bomb. That isnt parsing words. He made is very clear that states that rely on the federal exchanges dont get tax breaks. But their citizens will still be forced to pay taxes without benefits. Hence the carrot on the stick for states to build their own exchanges.

I think this covers the issue pretty well from someone who has covered it from the start:

http://www.vox.com/2014/7/26/5937593/obamacare-halbig-gruber-tax-credits/in/5690430
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
And about the lack of subsidies for those states that use the federal exchange????? You seem to gloss right over that bomb. That isnt parsing words. He made is very clear that states that rely on the federal exchanges dont get tax breaks. But their citizens will still be forced to pay taxes without benefits. Hence the carrot on the stick for states to build their own exchanges.

Except that's not what Gruber said. The federal exchange exists to compensate when state exchanges don't exist, thus providing the same opportunities & obligations for everybody.

Otherwise, the federal exchange wouldn't exist.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
I hope SCOTUS votes for King. It will force the issue, and GOP will lose once and for all.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
I hope SCOTUS votes for King. It will force the issue, and GOP will lose once and for all.

Sure thing Obi Wan Kenobi. Except that most people don't give a rats ass that someone else's subsidies go away especially when the parts of the law they do like are staying around. People dislike welfare no matter what name it goes under and what format it takes, whether food stamps, direct payments, or Obamacare subsidies. Democrats will roll out the sob stories of people without insurance, GOP will point out how much Obamacare takes out of middle class taxpayer pockets to "fix" that and most people will say "sorry, you poor folks are on your own."

 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Sure thing Obi Wan Kenobi. Except that most people don't give a rats ass that someone else's subsidies go away especially when the parts of the law they do like are staying around. People dislike welfare no matter what name it goes under and what format it takes, whether food stamps, direct payments, or Obamacare subsidies. Democrats will roll out the sob stories of people without insurance, GOP will point out how much Obamacare takes out of middle class taxpayer pockets to "fix" that and most people will say "sorry, you poor folks are on your own."


While I disagree with senseamp, Your statement about what people dislike is highly presumptuous. Take, for example, the whole argument used to obtain standing. Few would agree with the underlying rationale, that the plaintiffs have the right to mooch off the rest of us when they need care. Few would agree with the idea that the federal exchange shouldn't serve as an exact cost/benefit replica of state exchanges, either.

What Righties miss wrt the ACA subsidies & exchanges is that they're in place for anybody who needs them, even if that's temporary. In between jobs? Go with the exchange rather than COBRA, simply because it's less expensive. You'll lose any ancillary benefits of your old plan, but it's a good way to reduce expenses. Want to start a small business, strike out on your own? Probably won't make much money at first? Subsidies will keep your family insured until you do.

Solid employer sponsored plans are usually less expensive, for sure, but not everybody has that. The ACA makes sure that hose plans are solid, as well, rather than providing a chimera of coverage all too common under the old system.
 

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
271
136
There's enough bad in the ACA that if the GOP had passed the exact same law the Democratic party would certainly be opposing it now, but since they passed it they'll defend it to the death.

lol. The stupid in this post is strong. Not a single Dem would have voted for the ACA had a Republican president and Repub Congress passed the exact same law? The same ACA with a massive Medicaid expansion (a law LBJ created), a universal mandate, pre-existing conditions ban, subsidies and minimum standards controls?

Seriously, stop posting.
 
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werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
Read this first.

.

Then this
I think it's clear. In-artful, yes, but clear. Especially after he said that the Fed government will provide the Exchange as a backstop where by his words "people go to get their subsidies for health insurance".

But assuming you may believe he said that, why is so hard then to find any other person in the world who believed the same thing? This is what is deceptive about this whole thing. You are building an argument on one in-artful line by one person who agrees with you, where every other contemporaneous account doesn't.
You're engaging in some very creative interpretation there.

Questioner: You mentioned the health-information [sic] Exchanges for the states, and it is my understanding that if states don’t provide them, then the federal government will provide them for the states.

Gruber: Yeah, so these health-insurance Exchanges, you can go on ma.healthconnector.org and see ours in Massachusetts, will be these new shopping places and they’ll be the place that people go to get their subsidies for health insurance. In the law, it says if the states don’t provide them, the federal backstop will. The federal government has been sort of slow in putting out its backstop, I think partly because they want to sort of squeeze the states to do it.
I think what’s important to remember politically about this, is if you’re a state and you don’t set up an Exchange, that means your citizens don’t get their tax credits. But your citizens still pay the taxes that support this bill. So you’re essentially saying to your citizens, you’re going to pay all the taxes to help all the other states in the country. I hope that’s a blatant enough political reality that states will get their act together and realize there are billions of dollars at stake here in setting up these Exchanges, and that they’ll do it. But you know, once again, the politics can get ugly around this.​
Gruber's words are crystal clear: State exchanges (named as "these new shopping places") are where people will go to get their subsidies, because at heart this is merely another redistribution program. If the states do not provide "these new shopping places", then the federal government will. That's the blue section. Now comes the red section, where he details the consequences of not setting up "these new shopping places". "f you’re a state and you don’t set up an Exchange, that means your citizens don’t get their tax credits. But your citizens still pay the taxes that support this bill. So you’re essentially saying to your citizens, you’re going to pay all the taxes to help all the other states in the country." This is HOW the federal government will squeeze the states. As if that wasn't crystal clear, Gruber then goes on to point out that there are "billions of dollars at stake here in setting up these Exchanges". The subsidies go to the individual either way, so if the federal government were authorized to grant subsidies, the states would see all the benefits of the subsidies (i.e. more money remaining in the individual state economies) with none of the costs, since the federal government would bear that cost. No amount of magical color blending can make that something it isn't.

That said, while Gruber is clearly the author of the section in question he isn't the sole author, nor the bill's primary (or any) sponsor. Nor is his opinion necessarily the only or even most important one. SCOTUS should rule only on the bill's language as long as that language is clear. But it seems to me that other sections at least arguably contradict this, which throws it to the legislators' intent. Seems to me pretty clear that the majority intent was to have the subsidies paid either way, since this is benefitting a Democrat-majority constituency. I see no evidence that Republican lawmakers were aware of the distinction at the time (which is also at least superficially related evidence of other sections contradicting this.) Further, I see no benefit in requiring every state to have an exchange as long as the federal government has one. And I see no moral reason to allow someone's state legislature to take away a federal benefit. So I'm hoping that SCOTUS rules against King et al. I'm just not trying to transmogrify Gruber's words to back up my position.
 
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