The Tesla 3 will probably be a bust

[foghorn67]

Even Musk himself said a total monopoly on the market isnt necessary to be successful for anyone. He made this comment specifically on the Chevy Bolt. Both have the potential to keep their respective factories going at maximum capacity for quite a while. And everyone will see battery only vehicles as mainstream for quite a while until fuel cells or more advanced battery chemistry become developed enough.

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

 

[hans007]

i get the feeling if tesla isn't bankrupt by 2020 , this car might come out in that year

 

[HybridSquirrel]

The point is this still isn't a car for commoners. A base model Chevy or Nissan will offer you more for comparable money, period.

I agree. That's why I cancelled.

 

[HybridSquirrel]

Even Musk himself said a total monopoly on the market isnt necessary to be successful for anyone. He made this comment specifically on the Chevy Bolt. Both have the potential to keep their respective factories going at maximum capacity for quite a while. And everyone will see battery only vehicles as mainstream for quite a while until fuel cells or more advanced battery chemistry become developed enough.

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A long time ago, Musk said he never expected Tesla to make it. His mission was to get others thinking about alternative transportation. But then the fan boy checks started rolling in and that changed.

 

[tortillasoup]

I agree. That's why I cancelled.

A base model Chevy Bolt or a Nissan Leaf isn't going to be a better car than the Tesla Model 3. Tesla is the only company making a car with a battery that size at that price because they have huge economies of scale. The only way GM and Nissan can make a car with a large battery would be at a massive loss. Either their electric car offerings are going to have significantly worse range than 200 miles EPA or they're going to be sold at a several thousand dollar loss.

Remember how they used to tout how amazing the Chevrolet Volt was going to be? Car ended up being very lack luster. I remember the inflated range and fuel economy both of the Volt and the Leaf before they came out and it wouldn't surprise me if they did it again.

 

[agent00f]

A base model Chevy Bolt or a Nissan Leaf isn't going to be a better car than the Tesla Model 3. Tesla is the only company making a car with a battery that size at that price because they have huge economies of scale. The only way GM and Nissan can make a car with a large battery would be at a massive loss. Either their electric car offerings are going to have significantly worse range than 200 miles EPA or they're going to be sold at a several thousand dollar loss.

Remember how they used to tout how amazing the Chevrolet Volt was going to be? Car ended up being very lack luster. I remember the inflated range and fuel economy both of the Volt and the Leaf before they came out and it wouldn't surprise me if they did it again.

The only electric car that's better costs 2-3x as much. If the S/X were some uberlux car with a lot of saving to be had by cutting expensive features/material, then a decent 35k 3 might be possible, but that's not the case either.

 

[HybridSquirrel]

Tesla used to inflate their range numbers too. Let's not forget they used to claim 330 miles for the S, when in reality it was 265 for the 85kw battery. The EPA changed the way they required manufacturers to advertise range, hence the drop. 2 cycle vs 5 cycle testing.

As soon as auto mfg's start throwing money into EV's they will surpass Tesla easily. The only thing Tesla has going is their gnarly acceleration and maybe AP. Everything else on the vehicle is quite shit. Look at how much free cash flow GM/Nissan have compared to Tesla's spending. That's why Tesla had to diversify. The gigafactory will give them leverage to sell batteries to competitors, and now with solar city. They also sell powertrain components to Mercedes and a few others I believe.

 

[bigi]

Oh boy, what a bunch of cold blooded fussies most of you are.

Let's give Tesla some credit.... can we?

1st brand new car company for over 100 years - how easy can it be?
Company with vision and great product even though most look for unnecessary gimmicks that cover the fact that your cars burn fuel.

For those who care, fact is this is US based company. Elon cold go to China where manufacturing is 10 years more advanced than whatever is left here. He could do it much cheaper too.

Still... "Tesla death watch..." "body panels not good fit" "other cars have more comfy crap inside" "Tesla too expensive" "my v12 makes more noise" "Tesla started that drag race too soon" "fisker car looks better"

I wish we could come back to this thread in 15 or so years.

 

[monkeydelmagico]

As soon as auto mfg's start throwing money into EV's they will surpass Tesla easily. The only thing Tesla has going is their gnarly acceleration and maybe AP. Everything else on the vehicle is quite shit. Look at how much free cash flow GM/Nissan have compared to Tesla's spending. That's why Tesla had to diversify. The gigafactory will give them leverage to sell batteries to competitors, and now with solar city. They also sell powertrain components to Mercedes and a few others I believe.

Really depends on how the gigafactory turns out. The other manufacturers have to contract for batteries with only a few providers. Tesla won't (soon). In the parts world I'm guessing the batteries will have higher profit margins than parts like seats and suspension components. No manufacturer that I'm aware of has an "in house" battery supplier. This could be a big advantage to Tesla as they can more easily upgrade the rest of the cars shortcomings vs. GM or Nissan having to figure out how to squeeze their suppliers for cheaper batteries.

 

[WackyDan]

The point is this still isn't a car for commoners. A base model Chevy or Nissan will offer you more for comparable money, period.

Base model Chevy EV or Nissan EV? Yes and no. Tesla beats them on range. I've been in a few Teslas and the fit and finish is pretty solid and feels on par if not better than any base level Chevy.

Here is the other thing you and some others need to get through your heads. Go out to the Tesla site and build a Tesla. All those upgrades? Autopilot? Unlocking the reserve capacity of the battery? Super Chargers? Guess what? Not only are they optional, but Chevy, Ford, Fiat, etc are all chomping at the bit to have that same level of coin operated upgrade built into their models. What you are seeing with Tesla is the new way of optioning cars in this industry. Don't think for a moment that GM, etc aren't going to go the same path.

The Model 3 is a huge step for Tesla - halving their current base Model S price. That impending Model 3 is what will make better EV companies of GM, etc.

You also have to understand the other question... Why do I personally have a reservation for a Model 3? Not because it is a Tesla, but because it IS NOT a GM product and thus is the only other real option for my family and our use.

 

[NutBucket]

For one, we're not comparing a vaporware Model 3 to old-gen Sparks and Leafs. Apples to apples folks, let's wait for the Bolt and next-gen Leaf.

Like I said, my observations on fit & finish are based purely on what I've seen when stopped in traffic or walking by one. They just don't strike me as anywhere near the level of a similarly priced BMW, Merc or Audi. My observation is your average car has better fit and finish.

I have no issue with they way they sell options either. Why wouldn't every manufacturer want to simply unlock features via software? It would significantly reduce production costs. My comment is that the pricing will still mean this car is not for commoners but I will reserve final judgement until the cars are actually available for sale. And, if you don't buy the options at this point I honestly believe you will be better off buying a Bolt or Leaf. Again, all is TBD until all the cars are available.

 

[agent00f]

Oh boy, what a bunch of cold blooded fussies most of you are.

Let's give Tesla some credit.... can we?

1st brand new car company for over 100 years - how easy can it be?
Company with vision and great product even though most look for unnecessary gimmicks that cover the fact that your cars burn fuel.

For those who care, fact is this is US based company. Elon cold go to China where manufacturing is 10 years more advanced than whatever is left here. He could do it much cheaper too.

Still... "Tesla death watch..." "body panels not good fit" "other cars have more comfy crap inside" "Tesla too expensive" "my v12 makes more noise" "Tesla started that drag race too soon" "fisker car looks better"

I wish we could come back to this thread in 15 or so years.

A main reason they stayed in the US is because they basically got the Toyota/GM factory for free among many other tax incentives.

Musk does deserve credit for the bravado, but his venture was in substantial part a socializing risk while privatizing profit move rather popular these days.

 

[HybridSquirrel]

A main reason they stayed in the US is because they basically got the Toyota/GM factory for free among many other tax incentives.

Musk does deserve credit for the bravado, but his venture was in substantial part a socializing risk while privatizing profit move rather popular these days.

Musk didn't even start the company. He came in with some extra money from PayPal, then bought all the other guys out. The vision of Tesla wasn't his. Regardless, he does deserve SOME credit.

 

[Brovane]

The point is this still isn't a car for commoners. A base model Chevy or Nissan will offer you more for comparable money, period.

What is the price point for a new car for commoners in the US?

What specific features of a base model Chevy EV or Nissan EV do you think will give you more than the base model 3 Tesla?

 

[Brovane]

A main reason they stayed in the US is because they basically got the Toyota/GM factory for free among many other tax incentives.

Musk does deserve credit for the bravado, but his venture was in substantial part a socializing risk while privatizing profit move rather popular these days.

What is the risk with Tesla that has been socialized?

 

[NutBucket]

What is the price point for a new car for commoners in the US?

What specific features of a base model Chevy EV or Nissan EV do you think will give you more than the base model 3 Tesla?

Around $30k well equipped...or say within $10 of reasonably equipped mid-size sedan.

Admittedly I'm probably getting ahead of myself comparing equipment levels.

 

[Brovane]

Around $30k well equipped...or say within $10 of reasonably equipped mid-size sedan.

Admittedly I'm probably getting ahead of myself comparing equipment levels.

If we are just talking base level the EV's, Chevy Bolt starts at $37.5k, Nissan Leaf 2016 starts at $29k (On 84mile of range), the SV is $34k (100 miles) and the Model-3 is $35k. The base model EV's are very comparable equipped if you look at standard equipment. It is just that Tesla is going to offer more options which cranks up the price.

The $35k price point is based on that the average new car in the US is sold for about $33k.


So are you saying a base model Chevy EV or Nissan EV offers you more or a base Model Chevy or Nissan ICE vehicle?

 

[NutBucket]

IMHO at bare minimum a higher level of fit and finish if the 3 is anything big brother.

And, until the 3 is on sale everything is subject to change

 

[Brovane]

IMHO at bare minimum a higher level of fit and finish if the 3 is anything big brother.

And, until the 3 is on sale everything is subject to change

None of the vehicles that are being compared are for sale. The Chevy Bolt is the closest but we don't eve know for sure what the base features are beyond the 200-mile range. The Chevy website doesn't even say if it will have Level-3 charging.

Yes and until the Model 3 is on sale, everything is subject to change. However everything that I have seen says all the cars will be roughly equipped the same as a base model.

I don't disagree about the fit and finish and I have seen reports of no issues with fit and finish and other individuals reporting issues. Me personally I have never seen a Tesla with a bad fit and finish.

 

[agent00f]

What is the risk with Tesla that has been socialized?

Eg. their government loan, with far worse terms for the taxpayer than any VC would ever take.

None of the vehicles that are being compared are for sale. The Chevy Bolt is the closest but we don't eve know for sure what the base features are beyond the 200-mile range. The Chevy website doesn't even say if it will have Level-3 charging.

Yes and until the Model 3 is on sale, everything is subject to change. However everything that I have seen says all the cars will be roughly equipped the same as a base model.

I don't disagree about the fit and finish and I have seen reports of no issues with fit and finish and other individuals reporting issues. Me personally I have never seen a Tesla with a bad fit and finish.

The S is about the size of an E/6/5-series, costs about an S/8/7-series, with worse quality (esp interior) than either. The 3 is half the price; you should be able to do the math from here.

 

[Subyman]

I really want tesla to do well. I drive a truck as my primary transportation right now, but have been considering getting a car as a secondary driver once it's paid off. Tesla is high on the list for me. I plan to keep my vehicles for at least 6-8 years, so getting a tesla would be decent savings over that time in gas.

The only thing that bothers me is the silence because a family friend accidentally killed her cat backing out of the garage because the cat couldn't hear the car start. I hope they do some kind of noise in reverse to prevent that. I have several outdoor pets. Kind of a small issue in the grand scheme of things, but important to me.

 

[Brovane]

Eg. their government loan, with far worse terms for the taxpayer than any VC would ever take.

The Loan has already been paid off by Tesla and as a nation we are better because of the money loaned to Tesla.

Of course it was worse terms than any VC would have ever taken. How was the VC market in 2008? Basically VC had been drying up and credit markets had frozen and the US government stepped in with multiple loan programs to help unfreeze the credit market. The point of the ATVM program was to provide capital to the US auto industry to fund projects to help meet higher mileage requirements and lessen US dependence on foreign oil. The program wasn't to make a profit for the US taxpayers. The program was approved by Congress with a assumed 30% risk profile. The US government provides loan guarantees all the time, Export-Import Bank, SBA, USDOE has multiple loan programs besides the ATVM, VA Loans and the USDA-Farm Service Agency.

Once the program was offered by the US government it was Musk's fiduciary duty as the CEO to apply for low cost loans when the government offered them.

Now think about something, Musk risked considerably when he invested in Tesla, SpaceX, and SolarCity. He basically risked his entire fortune he had gained from Paypal, he was all in on these companies. For him the risk was considerable, he was basically broke in 2008 and was borrowing money for rent and both SpaceX and Tesla came very close to going under.

 

[agent00f]

The Loan has already been paid off by Tesla and as a nation we are better because of the money loaned to Tesla.

Of course it was worse terms than any VC would have ever taken. How was the VC market in 2008? Basically VC had been drying up and credit markets had frozen and the US government stepped in with multiple loan programs to help unfreeze the credit market. The point of the ATVM program was to provide capital to the US auto industry to fund projects to help meet higher mileage requirements and lessen US dependence on foreign oil. The program wasn't to make a profit for the US taxpayers. The program was approved by Congress with a assumed 30% risk profile. The US government provides loan guarantees all the time, Export-Import Bank, SBA, USDOE has multiple loan programs besides the ATVM, VA Loans and the USDA-Farm Service Agency.

Once the program was offered by the US government it was Musk's fiduciary duty as the CEO to apply for low cost loans when the government offered them.

Now think about something, Musk risked considerably when he invested in Tesla, SpaceX, and SolarCity. He basically risked his entire fortune he had gained from Paypal, he was all in on these companies. For him the risk was considerable, he was basically broke in 2008 and was borrowing money for rent and both SpaceX and Tesla came very close to going under.

You asked how this was an example of socializing risk while privatizing profit. Tesla was a high risk investment which investors are generally in a position to dictate favorable exit terms in case it pays off. Seems you're aware of the answer but were only looking for an opportunity to rationalize such schemes.

 

[Brovane]

You asked how this was an example of socializing risk while privatizing profit. Tesla was a high risk investment which investors are generally in a position to dictate favorable exit terms in case it pays off. Seems you're aware of the answer but were only looking for an opportunity to rationalize such schemes.

You said substantial part, I don't find a substantial part of the risk was socialized. The substantial part of the risk was borne by Musk and the initial VC investors in Tesla before the ATVM Loan was even made into law.

 

[agent00f]

You said substantial part, I don't find a substantial part of the risk was socialized. The substantial part of the risk was borne by Musk and the initial VC investors in Tesla before the ATVM Loan was even made into law.

Of course you don't, because evidently you think of Musk as some kind of minor deity and therefore deserves high risk loans at bargain basement rates. But other taxpayers got a much worse deal than they should've given how desperate Tesla was for money at the time.