The Trump Tariffs thread

[nakedfrog]

I don't know why people buy that shit. Yes it's cheap. It's also that cheap for a reason. I'm not saying people should only wear Versace stuff. But goddamn, a $5 dress brand new should send some red flags

My partner's idiot anti-vaxxer sister that didn't want to apply for food stamps because (and I swear I'm not making this up) you have to put down your address on the forms and she and her husband didn't think the government should be asking for your address--she's ordered tons of stuff from Temu.

They did finally get desperate enough to apply for them recently. I didn't find this out until after the fact, but they had also solar panels installed, as soon as I heard that I winced and asked if they got them from someone that knocked on their door. Yep. Bill finally started coming in and they're freaking out because, and this is a shocker, they were misled about how much they would be paying. I give you: an average middle-American Trump voter.

 

[Iron Woode]

You hope.

I am filled with hope.

 

[Viper1j]

Well, in anticipation of the ice storm coming (with promised outages.) and being stuck in Trumpistan (until I can sail) I just purchased a EcoFlow 1800W Output/2700W Peak Solar Generator And no, my MAGAt neighbors can NOT charge their cell phone here.

 

[manly]

if we can get through the covid pandemic then we can get through the Orange pandemic. 4 long years left.

Depends on what you mean by "get through" and there are way too many unknowns at this point.

Covid has a relatively modest CFR (low single digit % IIRC), but at least 1M Americans died over the first several years. From an infectious disease standpoint, SARS-CoV-2 is highly transmissible, which is why Covid was the most significant global pandemic in a century.

Will Trump 2.0 actually kill off 1M Americans, millions more around the world? Probably not, but SCROTUS and the GQP have given him virtual carte blanche to do whatever the hell he wants this time around. I don't have a crystal ball, but it's not exaggeration to fear that Trump could send this country backwards by a few decades when it comes to social and economic policy. How long would it take to recover from that? Nobody knows. And if he actually trade wars with virtually all of our largest trading partners, that's all but guaranteed to elevate China to global economic superpower. If the dollar is partially displaced as the global reserve currency, there's no going back from that.

 

[Viper1j]

Will Trump 2.0 actually kill off 1M Americans, millions more around the world? Probably not, but SCROTUS and the GQP have given him virtual carte blanche to do whatever the hell he wants this time around. I don't have a crystal ball, but it's not exaggeration to fear that Trump could send this country backwards by a few decades when it comes to social and economic policy. How long would it take to recover from that? Nobody knows. And if he actually trade wars with virtually all of our largest trading partners, that's all but guaranteed to elevate China to global economic superpower. If the dollar is partially displaced as the global reserve currency, there's no going back from that.

You're discounting the number of bodies Trump will be able to run through his ovens once he gets everything fired up and going. He's already established his first concentration camp at Guantánamo Bay.

It also won't be long before the detainees start to "disappear" into the ocean between Florida and Cuba as shark bait.

 

[manly]

You're discounting the number of bodies Trump will be able to run through his ovens once he gets everything fired up and going. He's already established his first concentration camp at Guantánamo Bay.

It also won't be long before the detainees start to "disappear" into the ocean between Florida and Cuba as shark bait.

The entire point of my post was to say we have no idea what happens over 4 years to be able to now say we can "get through" it. Although the person who wrote that is Canadian, so perhaps he's speaking only for our northern neighbors.

But hey, at least he's full of hope. I'm discounting some worst case scenarios (ovens FFS), but you went out and bought solar power generation? 🤷‍♂️

 

[Viper1j]

But hey, at least he's full of hope. I'm discounting some worst case scenarios (ovens FFS), but you went out and bought solar power generation? 🤷‍♂️

I can take the gennie on the boat. as an aux power supply when I go. And yes, I don't see ovens and more camps beyond Trump.

His mentor used them.

 

[sdifox]

Well, in anticipation of the ice storm coming (with promised outages.) and being stuck in Trumpistan (until I can sail) I just purchased a EcoFlow 1800W Output/2700W Peak Solar Generator And no, my MAGAt neighbors can NOT charge their cell phone here.

View attachment 116398

Sorry, this is 5G power and you said you don't trust 5G.

 

[Viper1j]

Sorry, this is 5G power and you said you don't trust 5G.

I never said I didn't trust 5G, and that's wireless standard, not power.

Unless I'm wrong about that. I just didn't want to risk carbon monoxide poisoning. Solar is clean power, and unlimited..

Unless the sun burns out. 🤔

 

[sdifox]

I never said I didn't trust 5G, and that's wireless standard, not power.

Unless I'm wrong about that. I just didn't want to risk carbon monoxide poisoning. Solar is clean power, and unlimited..

Unless the sun burns out. 🤔

No, that's what you tell your maga neighbours

 

[K1052]

Support for export duties on Canadian oil to the US approaching Assad margins is really quite the foreign policy accomplishment (derogatory).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...using-oil-as-weapon-if-trump-starts-trade-war

 

[Viper1j]

I would still like to see Justin flip the switch.

While I accept the "widows and orphans" argument, as many like to say, "Elections have consequences".

Canada would not get the blame for 25% of the United States going dark, it would be the Orange Overlord. Canada did not start this fight, but they are in prime position to end it.

 

[Fenixgoon]

I would still like to see Justin flip the switch.

While I accept the "widows and orphans" argument, as many like to say, "Elections have consequences".

Canada would not get the blame for 25% of the United States going dark, it would be the Orange Overlord. Canada did not start this fight, but they are in prime position to end it.

I imagine large scale power systems like that are not easy to switch on and off, so some advanced warning would be nice.

"President Trump's tariff bullying means we will turn off the power in 3 days." (Or whatever number is reasonable). And do it. Don't take calls or negotiate until the power is off.

 

[manly]

consumer vibes are back, baby!
Apparently a lot of Americans do understand who will pay for tariffs after all. 🤣

The Mood of the American Consumer is Souring — The Wall Street Journal

Tariff threats, market turbulence causing jitters early in Trump’s second term

apple.news

 

[K1052]

The Stove Toucher is back in business.

25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-announce-25-steel-aluminum-tariffs-on-monday

 

[Fenixgoon]

The Stove Toucher is back in business.

25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-announce-25-steel-aluminum-tariffs-on-monday

yeah, trump will definitely protect all those manufacturing workers by... *checks notes* raising prices on the materials they use to manufacture things.

in case anyone is curious, the US is #4 in steel production worldwide. we're best in specialty steels. china has everyone beat by a mile with production exceeding 1000 Mtons/year. i'm not advocating for tariffs, but the amount of steel we import is not that great, especially with NAFTA/USMCA mandates already in place. we import about 2M tons vs. a manufacturing capacity of about 80M tons.

List of countries by steel production - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

U.S. Steel Import Monitor

U.S. Steel Import Monitor. Includes Census Import Data and License Data. Searchable by Country and Product.

www.trade.gov

 

[K1052]

yeah, trump will definitely protect all those manufacturing workers by... *checks notes* raising prices on the materials they use to manufacture things.

in case anyone is curious, the US is #4 in steel production worldwide. we're best in specialty steels. china has everyone beat by a mile with production exceeding 1000 Mtons/year. i'm not advocating for tariffs, but the amount of steel we import is not that great, especially with NAFTA/USMCA mandates already in place. we import about 2M tons vs. a manufacturing capacity of about 80M tons.

List of countries by steel production - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

U.S. Steel Import Monitor

U.S. Steel Import Monitor. Includes Census Import Data and License Data. Searchable by Country and Product.

www.trade.gov

This is apparently one of several trade measures Trump has planned for next week.

Does the US have any primary aluminum production left operating or are they all closed?

 

[NWRMidnight]

This is apparently one of several trade measures Trump has planned for next week.

Does the US have any primary aluminum production left operating or are they all closed?

Yes, there is Alcoa Aluminum and Kaiser Aluminum off the top of my head. Who supply aluminum primarily to aerospace, as that is where the money is. Can stock and other aluminum products are difficult to make a profit in, but those are also produced here. All the smelting plants that smelt alunimum from raw materials, have closed down because they are pretty much not needed do to all the recyleced aluminum that is available. The last I heard, there is only 1 plant in the world that smelts alunimum from raw materials now due to the vast amount of recycled material. Smelters are also very toxic to the envirement, and is very costly to clean up afterwards.

Now where China is concerned, all though they may produce a shit ton of metal, it is low quality and is responsible for many structure failures around the world.

 

[K1052]

Yes, there is Alcoa Aluminum and Kaiser Aluminum off the top of my head. Who supply aluminum primarily to aerospace, as that is where the money is. Can stock and other aluminum products are difficult to make a profit in, but those are also produced here.

Now the problem with China, is they may produce a shit ton of metal, but it is low quality and is responsible for many structure failures around the world.

My recollection is that most of our imports came from Canada due to cheap hydroelectricity/low shipping costs. Haven't looked lately.

 

[NWRMidnight]

My recollection is that most of our imports came from Canada due to cheap hydroelectricity/low shipping costs. Haven't looked lately.

you are refering to unwrought aluminum, which is aluminum in its raw, unprocessed form, such as ingots, slabs, and billet, and accounts for 41% of our imports. It's what is used in production of aluminum products.

 

[K1052]

One interesting thing I've started to see is residential architects saying that their developers are delaying or canceling projects due to tariff concerns. They are worried Trump will randomly tariff something that blows their pro forma out of the water. Less housing production of course will lead to higher rents and inflation.

Presumably the same thing is happening with a lot of other business capex putting the breaks on until they feel comfortable.

 

[K1052]

On cue just found this Bloomberg story:




Front-Loading Tariffs Undercuts Trump’s Promise of Faster Growth Prioritizing trade wars and deportations over tax cuts creates risks for the economy in 2025.

 

[repoman0]

Trump managed to get me to diversify, that’s for sure. I’ve been riding the 100% SPY train since I started my career 13ish years ago and I’ve moved a nice chunk to bonds and international markets over the past couple months.

 

[IronWing]

On cue just found this Bloomberg story:

View attachment 116694


Front-Loading Tariffs Undercuts Trump’s Promise of Faster Growth Prioritizing trade wars and deportations over tax cuts creates risks for the economy in 2025.

In his first term, Trump surrounded himself with people he thought would make himself look more impressive. Those people could talk him off of cliffs. This time, Trump surrounded himself with end times nutjobs who literally want to see the world burn.

 

[IronWing]

Tariffs are working already: metals prices are soaring!