The Trump Tariffs thread

[Wreckem]

Well stagflation would imply low/no growth and high inflation so low interest rates would just make that worse.

The primary issue here is that in essence trade wars like this are in effect a significant net productivity decline for the economy. When productivity goes down there isn’t a lot you can do about it. Life will get worse.

Typically with stagflation you have decelerating to negative growth, 5% or greater inflation, and unemployment increasing.

We already head 2 of 3 indicators in Q1, GDP growth contracted significantly in Q1, and then we had significant job losses(driven by DOGE) in March. There will continued to be significant Fed job losses over the next three months but now industries are starting to increase layoffs.

Tarriffs are going to drive inflation up. Pretty sure we will have our first quarter of negative growth by by Q3, stagflation confirmed in Q3 and a full blown recession confirmed by Q1.

 

[Wreckem]

I don't have much hope these days but your last paragraph is one of two things that give me a sliver of hope. We also need to try and turn his base on him and his enablers. That is going to be hard considering the billionaires control all of the media his base views and hears.

His base is to far gone. They are cheering this as securing their long term future. When in reality long term future for his base and much of the working class is getting more dystopian by the day. It’s all about how quick it comes. This is only going to accelerate it.

 

[repoman0]

You don’t just get to vote for Donald Trump for a second term and have everything work out. I’m glad he’s screwing things up this badly and I hope the idiotic electorate learns a hard lesson. I’m willing to spend a few bucks more and slightly reduce my savings rate so they can get fucked and lose their jobs. Fell for it again awards all around.

 

[VRAMdemon]

Trump personally doesn't believe in "trade". Trade means the OTHER side is benefiting too, and that’s unacceptable to him. If the other side is benefiting then you are by definition a “loser”, and they are a “winner”; there’s no room for mutually beneficial arrangements in his mind.

In his mind .... The rest of the world is supposed to give America money and resources in return for NOTHING. Tribute, not trade.

The opportunity to make money for himself and the GOP from tariff exclusions for favored friends and corporate donors has always been one of Trump's primary objectives with his tariffs. They can serve a dual purpose as both stick and carrot (i.e., the exclusions) to keep corporations in line AND paying up for access and 'protection'. Net-net, along with the threats of prosecution over 'woke policies'. We're seeing a uniquely American form of authoritarian kleptocracy coming into existence, in real-time.

 

[Wreckem]

Trump personally doesn't believe in "trade". Trade means the OTHER side is benefiting too, and that’s unacceptable to him. If the other side is benefiting then you are by definition a “loser”, and they are a “winner”; there’s no room for mutually beneficial arrangements in his mind.

In his mind .... The rest of the world is supposed to give America money and resources in return for NOTHING. Tribute, not trade.

The opportunity to make money for himself and the GOP from tariff exclusions for favored friends and corporate donors has always been one of Trump's primary objectives with his tariffs. They can serve a dual purpose as both stick and carrot (i.e., the exclusions) to keep corporations in line AND paying up for access and 'protection'. Net-net, along with the threats of prosecution over 'woke policies'. We're seeing a uniquely American form of authoritarian kleptocracy coming into existence, in real-time.

The White House is essentially acting as a mob boss towards the entire world. If everyone keeps caving it’s just going to further bolster Trump and we will fall into full blown authoritarianism.

The GOP never should talk about regulations or free market ever again. What they are doing under Trump is far worse that regulations or anything the democrats have ever done. They are essentially allowing Trump to pick who is a winner and who is a loser by more or less illegal means but what is there to stop him.

 

[Indus]

Lutnick: "Let Donald Trump run the global economy. He's knows what he's doing. He's been talking about it for 35 years. You gotta trust Donald Trump in the White House ... it's broken. Let him fix it ... Let Donald Trump fix the American economy."

Donald Trump has declared bankruptcy six fucking times! What is this clown smoking. It's a cult!

Lutnick's willing to risk that his BILLION$ will see him through it OK. What a guy!

Reporter: - "The market is tanking"

Trump: - "Things are going very well. Gotta go now. I got to play in a golf tournament"

Just like every other time in our history a Republican gets elected and totally destroys a good economy left by the Democratic President

Not all businesses are suffering. The Joe Biden ‘miss me yet’ stickers are flying off the shelves.

The man is delusional and our media is a joke for not calling him on it to his face.

You forgot say Thank You!

 

[balloonshark]

His base is to far gone. They are cheering this as securing their long term future. When in reality long term future for his base and much of the working class is getting more dystopian by the day. It’s all about how quick it comes. This is only going to accelerate it.

There were pretty pissed about egg prices so I do have hope that at least some of them wake up when everything is costing them more. This is a tax that's going to disproportionately hurt the working man.

 

[amenx]

Stupidest fucking idiot to ever lead a country (click show more)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1907559189234196942

 

[VRAMdemon]

When is the fucking media going to call out Trumps continual reference to our nation’s finances and approach to international trade in the late 19th century that is wholly insane and inaccurate. To point to that time period in our history as one we can emulate today in global trade is a fairy tale. That’s because manufacturing in the late 19th century did NOT rely on intertwined global supply chains. In other words, products manufactured in the U.S. today are assembled with parts that came from all over the world. Trump is trying to trade like it’s 1899.

The whole world is laughing at us at this point.

 

[Brainonska511]

You don’t just get to vote for Donald Trump for a second term and have everything work out. I’m glad he’s screwing things up this badly and I hope the idiotic electorate learns a hard lesson. I’m willing to spend a few bucks more and slightly reduce my savings rate so they can get fucked and lose their jobs. Fell for it again awards all around.

Honestly, fuck the overall right-leaning media who completely sane-washed all the insane shit Trump was saying during the election, creating a permission structure for the (not totally insane) part of the electorate to just ignore the crazy things and cherry pick the things they liked.

Remember this one doozy? Why the fuck was this rated "half true" at the time (and now the numbers are coming out that it will actually cost the typical family $4600/year!).

 

[repoman0]

Honestly, fuck the overall right-leaning media who completely sane-washed all the insane shit Trump was saying during the election, creating a permission structure for the (not totally insane) part of the electorate to just ignore the crazy things and cherry pick the things they liked.

Remember this one doozy? Why the fuck was this rated "half true" at the time (and now the numbers are coming out that it will actually cost the typical family $4600/year!).
View attachment 121279

Half true because it was an underestimate! It’s actually over $4000 a year not almost.

 

[VRAMdemon]

Those fucking charts are a laughing stock of bullshit. Trump’s figures for foreign “tariffs” are not tariffs at all. They’re a meaningless ratio of our trade deficit with a given country or region (such as the EU) to the value of goods we import from that country or region. Thus our trade deficit with China is $292 billion. Divide that by the $434 billion value of our imports from China and you get 0.67. Huh? Trump claims that’s a 67% Chinese tariff on US exports, so in a spirit of generosity, he’ll slap half that “tariff” or 34% on imports from China. And this guy graduated from Wharton?

 

[Indus]

You don’t just get to vote for Donald Trump for a second term and have everything work out. I’m glad he’s screwing things up this badly and I hope the idiotic electorate learns a hard lesson. I’m willing to spend a few bucks more and slightly reduce my savings rate so they can get fucked and lose their jobs. Fell for it again awards all around.

Nope.. they will not learn.

Infact today I heard them say Today is the greatest day ever and they are so proud to be living in a time like today under Trump!

I'm not even kidding..

 

[dainthomas]

In spite of Trump's unwarranted idiocy, I and the vast majority of Canadians have no issue with the average US citizen.

Please feel free to come and visit Canada and enjoy some of the best tourism in the world. Your dollar goes farther here and were appreciate your patronage. Tourism is one part of our economy that needs a major expansion.

No matter what season you prefer, we have a lot to offer you.

I'm surprising my gf with a trip to Victoria in a few weeks. We've only gone in the fall/winter so it'll be great for her to see the gardens with actual flowers.

 

[fskimospy]

Those fucking charts are a laughing stock of bullshit. Trump’s figures for foreign “tariffs” are not tariffs at all. They’re a meaningless ratio of our trade deficit with a given country or region (such as the EU) to the value of goods we import from that country or region. Thus our trade deficit with China is $292 billion. Divide that by the $434 billion value of our imports from China and you get 0.67. Huh? Trump claims that’s a 67% Chinese tariff on US exports, so in a spirit of generosity, he’ll slap half that “tariff” or 34% on imports from China. And this guy graduated from Wharton?

Using their logic a country with zero trade barriers would be considered to have 100% tariffs if they didn’t buy anything from us.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Using their logic a country with zero trade barriers would be considered to have 100% tariffs if they didn’t buy anything from us.

Those fucking penguins..... now it makes sense...

 

[Iron Woode]

Donald Trump is the intellectual equivalent of a hernia.

 

[Roger Wilco]

It’s almost like there isn’t an actual plan for anything beyond blatant extortion.

 

[Indus]

Donald Trump is the intellectual equivalent of a hernia.

Well in the way Trump only wants stuff detailed in 1 page with images or graphs:



And Macron is urging EU businesses to not invest in the US

https://twitter.com/x/status/1907842840119435505

 

[manly]

Typically with stagflation you have decelerating to negative growth, 5% or greater inflation, and unemployment increasing.

We already head 2 of 3 indicators in Q1, GDP growth contracted significantly in Q1, and then we had significant job losses(driven by DOGE) in March. There will continued to be significant Fed job losses over the next three months but now industries are starting to increase layoffs.

Tarriffs are going to drive inflation up. Pretty sure we will have our first quarter of negative growth by by Q3, stagflation confirmed in Q3 and a full blown recession confirmed by Q1.

The Atlanta Fed already models GDP shrinking in Q1 by about 3% (I assume that's annualized). Fresh corporate layoffs* are joining DOGE layoffs, and it wouldn't take much to reach the tipping point where consumers pull back sharply (if they haven't already).

In other words, Q2 is likely off to a rocky start and these dumb tariffs haven't even kicked in yet.

* In particular, big tech is slashing and burning headcount to pay for Nvidia data center GPUs. The sad part is that FAANG MAMAA has never been more profitable.

2,000+ Bay Area Tech Jobs Cut in 2025 as Sector Streamlines

The 2,086 layoffs of Bay Area tech workers that have been disclosed over the first five weeks of 2025 are already approaching the totals for each of the last two quarters.

insider.govtech.com

 

[K1052]

Sure. Why not. Let's just get it all over with.

 

[Indus]

Sure. Why not. Let's just get it all over with.

View attachment 121287

When I was overseas.. I noticed a trend among some countries.. the breadwinner of the family would often work overseas and send money back home. If they did really good performance, the family could then join them overseas.

That may become the future of the US labor.

Infact it was un-imaginable even in England 20 years ago, but now after Brexit it is a reality.

What Trump has basically done is totally undermine Biden's achievement to take advantage of European brain drain exodus. Now the flow will reverse.. maybe greatly so!

It'll take some time for it to settle in.. but Americans with better economic dreams might have to look for work overseas.

 

[gothuevos]

The oligarchy is going to further enrich itself and then use that money to buy up everything. Once it has everything it will replace human labor.

[Ralph]

Hehehehe, we're in danger.

[/Ralph]

 

[esquared]

It’s almost like there isn’t an actual plan for anything beyond blatant extortion.

View attachment 121283

Bunch of fucking clowns

 

[gothuevos]

I don't have much hope these days but your last paragraph is one of two things that give me a sliver of hope. We also need to try and turn his base on him and his enablers. That is going to be hard considering the billionaires control all of the media his base views and hears.

It will never happen, re: business leaders standing up.

Instead they will look to negotiate and carve out exemptions for themselves. See big law and academia. You think corporations are going to have more backbone than the former two?