The Trump Tariffs thread

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repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
5,080
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There is a whole lot of room for ex-US proportion of capital allocation to increase. US allocation is pretty high above the historical norm.
 

Amol S.

Platinum Member
Mar 14, 2015
2,564
774
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EUR/USD went up to 1.11 within an hour after last midnight, but right when Trump announced the tarrif pause, it went back down to the 1.08-1.09 range.
 

VRAMdemon

Diamond Member
Aug 16, 2012
7,443
9,328
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So that was market manipulation and insider trading at its finest. Someone specifically posted MTG’s trade logs on reddit and she made an unusual investment in SPY right before the tariffs were announced that instantly gained massively and no doubt plenty of others in Trump’s inner circles did the same. This is the most brazen, open instance of insider trading the US market has ever seen - he threatened the economic world order as a pump and dump (or, I guess, a dump and pump). The world is not going to invest in US markets with blatant corruption like this, and without that foreign investment the US financial system is massively weakened.

I hope the SEC and DOJ investigate!

Let me know when you all stop laughing…
 

VRAMdemon

Diamond Member
Aug 16, 2012
7,443
9,328
136
Trump has backed down but continues the pissing contest with President Xi.

Trumps ghost writer:


Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately.

At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable.

“Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Isn’t that self-contradictory?

Which is it? A 90-day pause or a 90-day reduction to 10%?

Either way, this constant flip-flopping and uncertainty does not address, indeed it exacerbates, the underlying issue that the US is now known as an untrustworthy and mercurial trade partner.

So, he’s going to have one-on-one negotiations with 75 different countries, to discuss and resolve all the issues around “Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs”, and he’s going to do that all in 90 days? 1.2 days per country, assuming he works every weekend.

When is he going to find time to play (cheat) at golf? I’m going to officially call bullshit on this one. Shocking!

10 year yield on t-bills is spiking which means they’re having a hard time getting people to buy our treasuries, because the world no longer views the US as stable and reliable. Our debt is revolving. We sell new debt to pay maturing t-bills, so the increase in rate increases the cost of servicing our entire debt. That’s going to be tens of billions of dollars per year more paid in interest because of the damage we’ve done to the world trust in the US.
 
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VRAMdemon

Diamond Member
Aug 16, 2012
7,443
9,328
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I'm wondering .... Where will China find new customers for their goods? We have such good friends I cannot think of anyone who would want to trade with China when they could be subjected to our tariffs.

I guess nobody really knows. It’ll be a game of chicken to see who blinks first. If it were just China vs. a competent, focused US government, I’m sure the US could extract quite a few concessions. But what we have is this idiot man-baby Trump who has started an economic war of survival with pretty much everyone except Russia, Cuba, and North Korea. It seems likely that other countries will form coalitions to survive, and Trump will face pressure from Americans who are getting destroyed in the stock market.

I’m sure Trump is thinking “tax cuts will fix this” or “rate reductions will fix this”. I expect we’ll see both - he’ll ram through a tax cut, which is the only purpose the lizard-brain GOP understands, and he’ll also fire Fed committee members until he gets the rate cuts he wants. Then inflation spikes and the real fun begins.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
14,319
10,024
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I'm wondering .... Where will China find new customers for their goods? We have such good friends I cannot think of anyone who would want to trade with China when they could be subjected to our tariffs.

I guess nobody really knows. It’ll be a game of chicken to see who blinks first. If it were just China vs. a competent, focused US government, I’m sure the US could extract quite a few concessions. But what we have is this idiot man-baby Trump who has started an economic war of survival with pretty much everyone except Russia, Cuba, and North Korea. It seems likely that other countries will form coalitions to survive, and Trump will face pressure from Americans who are getting destroyed in the stock market.

I’m sure Trump is thinking “tax cuts will fix this” or “rate reductions will fix this”. I expect we’ll see both - he’ll ram through a tax cut, which is the only purpose the lizard-brain GOP understands, and he’ll also fire Fed committee members until he gets the rate cuts he wants. Then inflation spikes and the real fun begins.

umm is that a sarcastic post or a genuine one?

The US is only about 15% of China's exports.

And the EU is already looking to get on China's good side as the US is unreliable.
 

VRAMdemon

Diamond Member
Aug 16, 2012
7,443
9,328
136
umm is that a sarcastic post or a genuine one?

The US is only about 15% of China's exports.

And the EU is already looking to get on China's good side as the US is unreliable.

Umm ... yes that was sarcasm obviously. I guess I should have labeled it as such.
 
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VRAMdemon

Diamond Member
Aug 16, 2012
7,443
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Howard Lutnick: - "Donald Trump’s tariffs would remain in place “for days and weeks,” and that some islands inhabited by penguins were included on the list so that countries could not use them as a loophole."


[bolding mine]

If the former, then Lutnick just sabotaged any meaningful chance that significant ‘reshoring’ moves will be made by big companies.

Cheaper and easier to simply wait the tariffs out and pay (and pass through) some portion of the increases.

We’re also hearing another absurdly obvious factor: the tariffs will increase the cost of materials needed to Build these glorious, palatial factories, teeming with laid off, six-figure, skilled and educated former Civil Servants who will now be competing with 9th graders for unskilled labor.

Another one of the many obvious issues that arises when you deport any significant number of the hard-working, primarily lower-wage workers keeping this country humming along at a discount: you lose a big chunk of the low-wage construction labor force who may have built the factories.

So, parts AND labor.

MAGA!!
 

VRAMdemon

Diamond Member
Aug 16, 2012
7,443
9,328
136
The Chinese can afford to wait things out until the American public gets a load of the new price tags on a huge range of consumer goods and goes insane.

The part that’s going to kill the U.S. economy is that consumers will see the “temporary” high prices and decide to wait them out. And Trumps changing his mind and Lutnicks "days, weeks" statements are encouraging it. So we’re going to get a demand shock from consumers not buying to go along with the supply shock of manufacturers not producing.
 
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sdifox

No Lifer
Sep 30, 2005
98,647
17,180
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Consumer confidence is peanuts compared to the long term Treasury Bill damage.
 

RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
2,379
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So Trump is a Panican. This will bode well for his future dealing with Putin and others
 

sdifox

No Lifer
Sep 30, 2005
98,647
17,180
126
I’m not financially literate when it comes to treasury bills. Can you explain what’s happened?
T-Bills represent the confidence the institutional investors have in the US's ability to repay on time. That confidence was shot in the face by the genius in the stable. From now on US T-Bill have to offer higher rates in order to entice buyers. This makes it more expensive for US to service that debt.


Greece Government offers 30 year bond at 4.330% US 30Y T-Bill is 4.9%. It was 4.41% on April 4.

Greece Government bond is more desirable than US T Bill... Let that sink in.

Here is an earlier post on this

 
Last edited:

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,075
43,078
136
T-Bills represent the confidence the institutional to investors have in the US's ability to repay on time. That confidence was shot in the face by the genius in the stable. From now on US T-Bill have to offer higher rates in order to entice buyers. This makes it more expensive for US to service that debt.


Greece Government offers 30 year bond at 4.330% US 30Y T-Bill is 4.9%

Greece Government bond is more desirable than US T Bill... Let that sink in.

Southern Europe, especially Greece, has had a truly amazing turnaround from a decade ago.
 
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ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,200
16,461
136
So that was market manipulation and insider trading at its finest. Someone specifically posted MTG’s trade logs on reddit and she made an unusual investment in SPY right before the tariffs were announced that instantly gained massively and no doubt plenty of others in Trump’s inner circles did the same. This is the most brazen, open instance of insider trading the US market has ever seen - he threatened the economic world order as a pump and dump (or, I guess, a dump and pump). The world is not going to invest in US markets with blatant corruption like this, and without that foreign investment the US financial system is massively weakened.

I hope the SEC and DOJ investigate!

Let me know when you all stop laughing…

I said the same thing. It looks pretty obvious to me that this was a dump and pump. Sell high, cause market chaos and buy low.
 
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RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
2,379
5,682
106
I hope the SEC and DOJ investigate!

Let me know when you all stop laughing…
Just saw this comment over at Hacker News;

There's a reason the saying, "in America we have three coequal branches of government: the Supreme Court rules, the President crimes, and Congress is just for fun" has become popular since some time after his first inauguration.

 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
39,851
9,571
136
As usual, Trump ends up basically where we started had he done nothing at all.

All the idiot had to do was nothing. Literally nothing. Had he done nothing we would have been better off than we are right now.
No. He shattered confidence in America. People will be less apt to invest here, domestic and foreign investors. The uncertainty insures this. Until Trump is an outsider or dead this is the new landscape.
 
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RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
2,379
5,682
106
Until Trump is an outsider or dead this is the new landscape.
Even as an outsider Trump will have power. He did during the Biden era. And even after he passes, are we sure that his son's won't be able to pick up the MAGA loyalty?
 
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