The Trump Tariffs thread

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manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
12,831
3,609
136
To be clear, Momentsofsanity said "huge rounding error" in response to RnR_au's post that everyone else but china, India, EU is a "rounding error"
More reason to have posted a /s after his comment.

I thought the same thing as Momentsofsanity, as Mexico and Canada were a huge rounding error. US imports from Mexico was 505B last year. That's more import money than US had with China

I missed that. My bad @MomentsofSanity we agreed with each other, I picked up the conversation hastily
Not your bad though.
Without the /s tag, the meaning is unclear. Was he agreeing or disagreeing? Your guess is as good as mine. Sometimes sarcasm is very obvious, but not here. He did clarify in the next reply.

Mexican exports to the U.S. are a massive part of their economy, which is why Pres. Sheinbaum has tried not to antagonize Trump. She, along with all of us, knows he's a fucking moron but she has to play along because they have a lot more to lose than we do in the bilateral trade. It's worked in the past, they promise to coordinate with us on tough border policy and Trump brags that he won major concessions. "The Art of the Deal!" 🤣

Canada is taking a somewhat different tact because of the moronic "51st state" BS that's very insulting. Also, there's basically no fentanyl flowing from north into the U.S. so Trump admin declaring a BS emergency to impose harsh tariffs is probably illegal under international trade law (i.e. if it ever went to the WTO, we'd lose).

For the most part, nobody wants to do deals with an unreliable "partner" but as the NYT reported, there is currently a separation between some countries that are striking back (i.e. China and Canada) and others that are trying to play the appeasement game because they imagine the U.S. will ultimately cave after Trump has torpedoed the world's economies. You figure at some point major corporations will tell GOP Congress critters that tanking economic growth wasn't why they backed Team Treason.
 
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RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
2,379
5,682
106
Not your bad though.
My bad in the end. I spoke from my gut feeling, when a simple google would have shown me wrong. I was fairly convinced that China and Europe would dwarf anyone else. Instead they are neck and neck with Mexico, Canada and the ASEAN group of countries are up there as well.


What got me in educating myself on the trading volumes of the USA (thanks to the comments in this thread) was that the China to USA export trade is only 15% of Chinese total exports.


I fear that Trump may have over estimated his leverage with China. 15% of your exports getting hit by 100% tariffs... its not exactly a king hit so to speak.
 
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manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
12,831
3,609
136
My bad in the end. I spoke from my gut feeling, when a simple google would have shown me wrong. I was fairly convinced that China and Europe would dwarf anyone else. Instead they are neck and neck with Mexico, Canada and the ASEAN group of countries are up there as well.


What got me in educating myself on the trading volumes of the USA (thanks to the comments in this thread) was that the China to USA export trade is only 15% of Chinese total exports.


I fear that Trump may have over estimated his leverage with China. 15% of your exports getting hit by 100% tariffs... its not exactly a king hit so to speak.
The U.S. is still the world's largest economy. Any country that exports a decent amount of goods to the U.S. doesn't want to lose that customer. (But now I'm curious what the Dutch buy from the U.S.)

Having said that, China is playing the long game. They know Trump is 78 years old, and cannot rule forever. They already know from the past 8 years that there's an adversarial relationship, so they'll deal with the hits if Trump wants to start a global recession.

Furthermore, in the first term, Trump was somewhat able to convince our western allies to treat China with caution and suspicion. But now that Trump has declared economic warfare against the entire world, why would anybody want to trust his administration? When you stab your friends or allies in the back, you've permanently ruined any good will you recently had.
 
Reactions: Indus

esquared

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 8, 2000
24,560
5,692
146
Not your bad though.
Without the /s tag, the meaning is unclear. Was he agreeing or disagreeing? Your guess is as good as mine. Sometimes sarcasm is very obvious, but not here. He did clarify in the next reply.

Mexican exports to the U.S. are a massive part of their economy, which is why Pres. Sheinbaum has tried not to antagonize Trump. She, along with all of us, knows he's a fucking moron but she has to play along because they have a lot more to lose than we do in the bilateral trade. It's worked in the past, they promise to coordinate with us on tough border policy and Trump brags that he won major concessions. "The Art of the Deal!" 🤣

Canada is taking a somewhat different tact because of the moronic "51st state" BS that's very insulting. Also, there's basically no fentanyl flowing from north into the U.S. so Trump admin declaring a BS emergency to impose harsh tariffs is probably illegal under international trade law (i.e. if it ever went to the WTO, we'd lose).

For the most part, nobody wants to do deals with an unreliable "partner" but as the NYT reported, there is currently a separation between some countries that are striking back (i.e. China and Canada) and others that are trying to play the appeasement game because they imagine the U.S. will ultimately cave after Trump has torpedoed the world's economies. You figure at some point major corporations will tell GOP Congress critters that tanking economic growth wasn't why they backed Team Treason.
Yeah, I am not dissing or shaming our Aussie friend.
He wouldn't know off hand how big Mexico and Canada's exports to the US, without looking it up.
I didn't know the exact amount, but I knew it was big and rivaled China.

That's why I mentioned about Momentsofsanity could have used the /s just to be sure.
I knew "hugh rounding error" meant a big frigging number, but many outside of the US wouldn't know.
 

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
65,559
13,927
146
That 10.25% surely includes local sales tax of 4% to 5% or so, at least thats how most states do it.
Washington state sales tax rate is 6.5%, My county charges another 2.4%, and the small town in which I live adds another .2% for a total of 9.1% It's that way all over the state. Base rate of 6.5% plus whatever the counties and cities tack on. The lowest in the state is 7.7%, the highest is 10.6%
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
19,406
6,429
136
Trade balance between EU and US including services, and there is a reason why Trump doesn't include services:

  • EU-US goods and services trade is balanced: the difference between EU exports to the US and US exports to the EU stood at €48 billion in 2023; the equivalent of just 3% of the total trade between the EU and the US. 
  • The total bilateral trade in goods reached €851 billion in 2023. The EU exported €503 billion of goods to the US market, while importing €347 billion; this resulted in a goods trade surplus of €157 billion for the EU.
  • Total bilateral trade in services between the EU and the US was worth €746 billion in 2023. The EU exported €319 billion of services to the US, while importing €427 billion from the US; this resulted in a services trade deficit of €109 billion for the EU.

 
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esquared

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 8, 2000
24,560
5,692
146
I think China has the upper hand. Exports to the US are/were around 500B/yr, which is 15% of their total exports
of over 3T in USD.
No one, or not many importing companies, are going to pay 104% tariff tax on Chinese goods, because the US population isn't going to
pay these importing companies new prices when they raise their prices 25-%50%-100%

China can just make up that 15% loss (500B) by making deals with the rest of the world that buys their product.
There's still 85% of the world that will buy providing the world economy isn't in a recession or worse, a depression.

The syphilitic orange menace wants jobs back from china, etc to the US.
You think the US population will do this?
 
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Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
32,840
12,102
136
Oh yeah people are so well off with Uber jobs and Doordash jobs.
Is almost like those companies skirt regulations so they can pay low wages and 0 benefits...

Not to mention the federal minimum wage has not changed in 30 years. It's almost like inflation is a thing and we should account for it!
 

RalphTheCow

Senior member
Sep 14, 2000
893
338
136
So Musk told Rogan that supply chains are complex and should not just have random tariffs suddenly applied.

So I guess that is different than suddenly and indiscriminately hacking away large parts of the Federal government. Sort of different when your own (Tesla) ox is getting gored.
 
Reactions: esquared
Dec 10, 2005
27,403
11,660
136
So Musk told Rogan that supply chains are complex and should not just have random tariffs suddenly applied.

So I guess that is different than suddenly and indiscriminately hacking away large parts of the Federal government. Sort of different when your own (Tesla) ox is getting gored.
Because Musk is your typical conservative: only sees the light when something personally affects him.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,075
43,079
136
Dimon was on Fox Business and said they expect defaults. Recession most likely scenario.

Yes, this Jamie Dimon:

 
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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
14,319
10,028
136
This is interesting:



So it'll hit MAGA voters the worst.

I can't believe it.. I'm actually beginning to agree with Elonia.. empathy for MAGA is the American left comitting suicide.

We need to start saying.. "Sorry, not sorry but can't help you MAGAts!"
 
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