Personally, I don't think understanding the Afghan war is all the difficult. And once we are honest about who the players are and what we are really fighting, then understanding how to win is not that hard.
We must first understand Nato is somewhat the 800 pound Gorilla here. Too strong to ever be dislodged, very mobiles meaning it can strike anywhere, but way way way too small to be everywhere at once in a way way way too big country.
Then there is corruption, the 1200 pound gorilla in Afghanistan, it rides on drug money and arms smuggling, and thrives in conditions of anarchy. And corruption has been the constant companion of the Nato occupation for 100% of the occupation. But corruption is such a nice doggie, as long as Nato leaves corruption alone, unlike other rascals, corruption does not shoot at Nato or set up bombs. As a result, In Afghanistan, everything is corrupt, the government is corrupt, the army are corrupt, the police are corrupt, the Provencal governors are corrupt, the courts don't function, and the Afghan people experience it on a daily basis.
Then the other 800 pound gorilla is the Taliban, the de evil bad guys that wear the black hats according to Nato. But still, a jonney come lately group in Afghan politics, whose rise can be traced to the civil war after the Russians left. And the only group now in Afghanistan with a proven record of combating corruption. And their Newt Gingrich 1994 contract with Afghanistan was live under our brutal rule and we will stamp out corruption. And one would have scour history long and deep to find another group, as brutal, as reactionary, and as inflexible.
But whatever anti corruption virtues the Taliban had are now changed since the Taliban, whatever that is, has now changed into a group whose main focus is fighting Nato and throwing the Western devil out. And now the Taliban has become synonymous with the collective Afghan and Pakistani insurgencies. A loose mix of old line Taliban leaders, spiced with a few Al-Quida types and foreign fighters, newly added are old line mujaheddin fighters who have little use for Taliban ideology, and much of the grunt troops come from old line tribal leaders who have seen their traditional way of life and power bases crumble. And in the process, the Afghan insurgencies are not above
making deals with corrupt war lords and thugs, so that they can continue to fight Nato.
And the last cast member in the cluster fuck Greek tragedy is the 50 pound monkey that the Afghan government now is.
And the clear current winner is Afghan corruption and the Afghan people understand it. Which is why this election may be important. Gone is the optimism that elected Karzai in 2004, when people actually dared to hope that Nato would be better and make progress. But Nato is still only a one trick pony, fighting only the Taliban and not combating corruption. And because Nato can't kill its way out of the Taliban problem, it simply means the anarchy and corruption will never end in a worthless land of barely habitable uplands. Unless one of two things happen. (1) Nato gives up and leaves. (2) Nato finally wises up, gets serious about fighting corruption, and then the Taliban will lose the popular support it needs to continue to exists.
But Afghanistan still has a huge strategic advantage as a possible oil pipe line route. But as long as anarchy rules the day, such a pipe line is impossible. But I am seriously beginning to wonder if that is the real Nato purpose, to hang around and make sure no one unfriendly to US interests builds such a pipe line through Afghanistan.