Trouble in Taiwan

[maddogchen]

Originally posted by: Aegion
The Taiwanese planes include a significant number of recently bought F-16s, and generally have a major qualitative advantage over their Chinese counterparts. The number of high quality Chinese planes with the range to effectively strike Taiwan is actually quite small. Taiwan also has a significant amount of anti-aircraft defenses.

Simple widespread bombing of Taiwan is not really an option for China since their goal is reunification and they can't really justify it politically since these Communist government emphesizes how the Taiwanese are the same people as those in China.

Unless all of the naval vessels are caught by surprise in port, ballistic missiles can't be used against them. Taking them out by sea is much tougher, especially with the Taiwanese airforce still acting as a defensive force and with the difficulties of finding the ships in the first place.

Besides heavily underestimating the US response time with a carrier force, you're neglecting the fact that US aircraft could relocate from bases in Japan and South Korea to airbases on Taiwan in a day or less.

Your nuke suggestions is just absurd. The Chinese government wouldn't risk anihilation over just Taiwan.

I can talk in detail about the very serious problems China would have launching an amphibious invasion of Taiwan if someone wants to hear about them.

I would like to hear your take on what problems China would have launching an invasion. I like hearing about military stuff.

As for my take, and I'm NOT an expert in China-Taiwan or have a lot of knowledge about it, but. Hmm.. I'm not sure how 150 or so F-16s, Mirage 2000's are going to defend against 150? Su Flankers & 1000+ random MIGs. To invade, I'm sure they would position all their top of the line jets and equipment in range of Taiwan. The 300 or so medium range missiles will take out Taiwan's anti-aircraft defenses because I'm sure spies have already scouted their locations and sent back their GPS coordinates. As for mobile anti-aircraft defenses, they'll risk their old MIGs against them, they have a lot anyway. As for Taiwan's Navy, China's new Russian missile ships will be sent after them, along with their quiet diesel Kilo subs. As for Taiwan's subs....Did they ever get new ones? I think they only have 2 decent ones, that won't matter that much then. And after they deal with Taiwan's air force, they'll start hunting the ships. When they clear the air force and navy, then they'll launch the invasion.

This is just China vs Taiwan. If the US intervenes it would be different.

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: rchiu
Seems like people are still missing the point. Taiwan is not that important to China financially or strategically. I mean it is great for China to have Taiwan, but China's survival does not depend on it. The point is, Chinese politicians cannot be seen as weak on Taiwan issue, it is like politicians here cannot talk about getting rid of Social Security, it amounts to political suicide if a Chinese politician is precieved as weak when it comes to Taiwan.

As a result, it is 99% certain that China will attack Taiwan if Taiwan choose to be independant. Following the same logic, if American choose to get involved, China will not back down just becuae the 7th fleet is in the Taiwan Strait because Chinese leader cannot afford to look weak against the US as well. About face is everything in Chinese politics.

For China, human life doesn't mean a whole lot. Chinese politician won't think twice about sacrificing half a mil soldier to strenghthen their position. It is true that American has the air/sea superiority, but China can afford to concentrade all their military force in Taiwan Strait, and not thinking about how many soldier is killed. This is not something American can afford.

What you are missing is that the US does not need to engage China in a land battle to thwart China in this situation, so most of those Chinese soldier don't do them any good. There is aproximately 210 kilometers of distance between the Chinese Mainland and Taiwan. Any invasion force has to first travel across the strat, and then has to go at least 420 kilometers roundtrip before they can come back with reinforcements. In practice, since basicly all the limited number of viable invasion beaches are on the eastern side of Taiwan, the distance any transports will have to travel is even longer. This means a very substancial amount of time is going to elapse before any reinforcements arrive to assist the initial force that establishes a beachhead. China's current transport and troops paradropping through air transport capacity is limited to at most 3 divisions.

Taiwan has an active over 250,000 man army, and a reserve force of over 1.5 million men. They would be able to easily crush such a relatively small invasion force before Chinese reinforcements could arrive. This is before you start considering how Taiwan's fairly capable navy and its airforce is going to be sinking the Chinese transports as they make their cross Strait journey as well and shooting down any Chinese transport planes. While China may make the effort in the longterm to substancially increase their amphibious capabilities, it will have to be so much that they can not only land a much larger force at once, but also sucessfully resupply it even after taking substancial casualties from Taiwanese air and naval forces. Taiwan also has land installations from which they can launch anti-shipping missiles such as the Hsiung-Feng II at various ships in the Chinese invasion force.
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/hf-2.htm

The US would need to do very little using its naval and aviation assets to twart a Chinese invasion anytime in the near future.

 

[AnImuS]

War over taiwan will not happen both countries US&China, will slap taiwan before it tries and goes solo. the only way a nuclear war will happen is if the US is winning in invading mainland china. Which i believe is impossible because the amount of people you need to control and the costs are more then we could afford. furthermore, they have 400 or so nukes, while we have 5000+.

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: maddogchen
I would like to hear your take on what problems China would have launching an invasion. I like hearing about military stuff.

As for my take, and I'm NOT an expert in China-Taiwan or have a lot of knowledge about it, but. Hmm.. I'm not sure how 150 or so F-16s, Mirage 2000's are going to defend against 150? Su Flankers & 1000+ random MIGs. To invade, I'm sure they would position all their top of the line jets and equipment in range of Taiwan. The 300 or so medium range missiles will take out Taiwan's anti-aircraft defenses because I'm sure spies have already scouted their locations and sent back their GPS coordinates. As for mobile anti-aircraft defenses, they'll risk their old MIGs against them, they have a lot anyway. As for Taiwan's Navy, China's new Russian missile ships will be sent after them, along with their quiet diesel Kilo subs. As for Taiwan's subs....Did they ever get new ones? I think they only have 2 decent ones, that won't matter that much then. And after they deal with Taiwan's air force, they'll start hunting the ships. When they clear the air force and navy, then they'll launch the invasion.

This is just China vs Taiwan. If the US intervenes it would be different.

Read my previous post for starters. Taiwan currently has about 200 F-16s & Mirage 2000s. They also have approximately 128 Ching-kuo fighters, which may be inferior to the F-16, but are better than everything but possibly the Soviet SU Flankers in the Chinese inventory. A large portion of the older Chinese migs are Chinese versions of the old Soviet Mig 21 designs. They are fighters with a subsonic max speed, and no radar, mostly making then moving target practice in the air.

I believe that most of the Chinese ballistic missiles' accuracy still leaves something to be desired. Most of the non-moving Taiwanese anti-aircraft missiles are placed underground, such as the Sky Bow one missile systems which "are deployed in underground cells, each housing four missiles protected by a concrete wall a meter thick."
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/skybow-1.htm

This sort of installation would require a precise direct hit in oder to be sucessfully taken out by a Chinese missile. The range of most of the older Migs is so limited that they could only loiter over Taiwan for a limited amount of time.

Fairly recent sales of portible anti-aircraft missile systems to Taiwan by the US in relatively recent years includes...
"Eight M-48A2 Chaparral anti-aircraft missile launchers, 148 Chaparral anti-aircraft missiles, 465 Hughes Stinger-RMP missiles; 55 dual-mount-ed Stinger missile launch systems, 1,299 Stinger-RMP missiles, 74 standard vehicle mounted launchers, 96 High-Mobility Multi-Purpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMPW) Vehicles, 61 Dual Mount STINGER Missile Systems consisting of: 61 Dual Mount STINGER (DMS) launchers (includes elevation assembly, tripod assembly, and sights)."
http://www.fas.org/asmp/profiles/taiwan_armstable.htm

Those are alot of missiles quite capable of taking down the older Chinese fighters and that could be concealed until they were ready to fire. Anti-aircraft guns could also be quite effective against these fighters which would need to fly low if they were to strike accurately. (I'm not even sure what sort of ordenance they have, particularly if they have to carry it across the Taiwan straight and still have enough fuel to loiter around Taiwan for a bit.) These Migs would have to fly at extremely low levels to accurately attack their targets, making them vulnerable to various types of non-missile anti-aircraft guns.

On the naval theatre... If the Chinese invasion fleet is already assembled close to Taiwan, they would still be vulnerable both to air and naval attacks utilizing weapons such as anti-shipping missiles. If the fleet is not assembled, but dispersed throughout China's coast, it might be safe, but you're looking a very substancial delay for the fleet to assemble and load up with troops and equipment after China eliminates Taiwan's airforce and navy.

The diesel subs you were talking about have fairly limited endurance and range, compromising their ability to locate the Taiwanese Navy. When you consider the size of the ocean around Taiwan and the fairly limited radar systems of most of the Chinese blue water ships, its going to take the Chinese quite awhile to eliminate the Taiwanese fleet. In a REALISTIC scenario, China is going to be extremely worried about giving that time for the US to react and react militarily since any significant use of US naval and aerial assets against a Chinese invasion fleet would lead to a catastrophic defeat for the Chinese invasion operation. China won't risk giving that much time for the US to react before attempting to actually invade Taiwan and create "facts on the ground" for the US to consider. If you want to hear about current and forthcoming Taiwanese naval capabilities, I can tell you about them.

 

[myusername]

Taiwan will use their secret purple ray of death. Bullets are so 20th century.

Seriously, if "face" is a strong enough of a reason to try something as stupid as invading Taiwan, why exactly would we not expect them to try to nuke it out of spite when conventional assault fails?

 

[Imdmn04]

China doesn't even have to goto war with Taiwan. All China has to do is to impose economic sanctions on Taiwan. Meaning stop trading with Taiwan, kicking out all Taiwanese businesses in China, and influence every other country to do the same just like what the U.S. has done to Cuba. Trust me, lots of country will do the same simply because there is a huge lucrative market in China, and they don't want to risk it by pissing off China. Just like not many countries are willing to trade with Cuba, because nobody in the right frame of mind wants to piss off U.S.

Granted in terms of economics, this will hurt China a lot, but nowhere as near as to the level of Taiwan, which has very little natural resources and it will be very difficult to be self-sustainable. If this continues for a long period of time, say 10 to 15 years. Then the ultimate result will be: Taiwan -> Cuba

 

[rchiu]

Originally posted by: Aegion

Originally posted by: maddogchen
I would like to hear your take on what problems China would have launching an invasion. I like hearing about military stuff.

As for my take, and I'm NOT an expert in China-Taiwan or have a lot of knowledge about it, but. Hmm.. I'm not sure how 150 or so F-16s, Mirage 2000's are going to defend against 150? Su Flankers & 1000+ random MIGs. To invade, I'm sure they would position all their top of the line jets and equipment in range of Taiwan. The 300 or so medium range missiles will take out Taiwan's anti-aircraft defenses because I'm sure spies have already scouted their locations and sent back their GPS coordinates. As for mobile anti-aircraft defenses, they'll risk their old MIGs against them, they have a lot anyway. As for Taiwan's Navy, China's new Russian missile ships will be sent after them, along with their quiet diesel Kilo subs. As for Taiwan's subs....Did they ever get new ones? I think they only have 2 decent ones, that won't matter that much then. And after they deal with Taiwan's air force, they'll start hunting the ships. When they clear the air force and navy, then they'll launch the invasion.

This is just China vs Taiwan. If the US intervenes it would be different.

Read my previous post for starters. Taiwan currently has about 200 F-16s & Mirage 2000s. They also have approximately 128 Ching-kuo fighters, which may be inferior to the F-16, but are better than everything but possibly the Soviet SU Flankers in the Chinese inventory. A large portion of the older Chinese migs are Chinese versions of the old Soviet Mig 21 designs. They are fighters with a subsonic max speed, and no radar, mostly making then moving target practice in the air.

I believe that most of the Chinese ballistic missiles' accuracy still leaves something to be desired. Most of the non-moving Taiwanese anti-aircraft missiles are placed underground, such as the Sky Bow one missile systems which "are deployed in underground cells, each housing four missiles protected by a concrete wall a meter thick."
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/skybow-1.htm

This sort of installation would require a precise direct hit in oder to be sucessfully taken out by a Chinese missile. The range of most of the older Migs is so limited that they could only loiter over Taiwan for a limited amount of time.

Fairly recent sales of portible anti-aircraft missile systems to Taiwan by the US in relatively recent years includes...
"Eight M-48A2 Chaparral anti-aircraft missile launchers, 148 Chaparral anti-aircraft missiles, 465 Hughes Stinger-RMP missiles; 55 dual-mount-ed Stinger missile launch systems, 1,299 Stinger-RMP missiles, 74 standard vehicle mounted launchers, 96 High-Mobility Multi-Purpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMPW) Vehicles, 61 Dual Mount STINGER Missile Systems consisting of: 61 Dual Mount STINGER (DMS) launchers (includes elevation assembly, tripod assembly, and sights)."
http://www.fas.org/asmp/profiles/taiwan_armstable.htm

Those are alot of missiles quite capable of taking down the older Chinese fighters and that could be concealed until they were ready to fire. Anti-aircraft guns could also be quite effective against these fighters which would need to fly low if they were to strike accurately. (I'm not even sure what sort of ordenance they have, particularly if they have to carry it across the Taiwan straight and still have enough fuel to loiter around Taiwan for a bit.) These Migs would have to fly at extremely low levels to accurately attack their targets, making them vulnerable to various types of non-missile anti-aircraft guns.

On the naval theatre... If the Chinese invasion fleet is already assembled close to Taiwan, they would still be vulnerable both to air and naval attacks utilizing weapons such as anti-shipping missiles. If the fleet is not assembled, but dispersed throughout China's coast, it might be safe, but you're looking a very substancial delay for the fleet to assemble and load up with troops and equipment after China eliminates Taiwan's airforce and navy.

The diesel subs you were talking about have fairly limited endurance and range, compromising their ability to locate the Taiwanese Navy. When you consider the size of the ocean around Taiwan and the fairly limited radar systems of most of the Chinese blue water ships, its going to take the Chinese quite awhile to eliminate the Taiwanese fleet. In a REALISTIC scenario, China is going to be extremely worried about giving that time for the US to react and react militarily since any significant use of US naval and aerial assets against a Chinese invasion fleet would lead to a catastrophic defeat for the Chinese invasion operation. China won't risk giving that much time for the US to react before attempting to actually invade Taiwan and create "facts on the ground" for the US to consider. If you want to hear about current and forthcoming Taiwanese naval capabilities, I can tell you about them.

Hey, I am not denying that Taiwan has significant airforce and navy to defend itself. That is one of the reason why China has not invaded yet. China will suffer heavy casualty if it lauches traditional sea/air campaign against Taiwan, no question about that. Chinese are not stupid however, if they engaged in a war with Taiwan, it will probably start with scare tactics with missile hitting unimportant targets. After that, they will try to hit military targets, and at the last resort, large cities. This will force Taiwan and the US to be on the offensive end and try to reduce Chinese' missile capability. It will be much costlier for Taiwan and US force if it gets to that scenario, they will have to engage in Chinese territory to destroy Chinese missile capability. The missile strike may include smaller scale nuclear strike in let's say a unpopulated region to scare the $hit out of Taiwanese people. The point is, there are many ways Chinese can approach this war, and they can turn it into a defensive war instead of suffering heavy casualties in an offensive war.

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: Imdmn04
China doesn't even have to goto war with Taiwan. All China has to do is to impose economic sanctions on Taiwan. Meaning stop trading with Taiwan, kicking out all Taiwanese businesses in China, and influence every other country to do the same just like what the U.S. has done to Cuba. Trust me, lots of country will do the same simply because there is a huge lucrative market in China, and they don't want to risk it by pissing off China. Just like not many countries are willing to trade with Cuba, because nobody in the right frame of mind wants to piss off U.S.

Granted in terms of economics, this will hurt China a lot, but nowhere as near as to the level of Taiwan, which has very little natural resources and it will be very difficult to be self-sustainable. If this continues for a long period of time, say 10 to 15 years. Then the ultimate result will be: Taiwan -> Cuba

The USA still has more influence than China, and Cuba actually trades with most nations other the US. China's moral position would be even weaker than the US on this issue. The USA would still be perfectly happy to trade with Taiwan, and the size of the US economy means that this is a huge market by itself. Unless the rest of the world refuses to trade with US middlemen, the actual effects of such behavoir would be limited. I.E. a US company would export ASUS motherboards elsewhere. Incidentally, Taiwan so strongly dominates the motherboard market and the like, that other countries can't afford to actually stop tading with them. This theoretical strategy would hurt Taiwan, but it would actually make them far less likely to agree to unify with China.

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: rchiu

After that, they will try to hit military targets, and at the last resort, large cities. This will force Taiwan and the US to be on the offensive end and try to reduce Chinese' missile capability. It will be much costlier for Taiwan and US force if it gets to that scenario, they will have to engage in Chinese territory to destroy Chinese missile capability. The missile strike may include smaller scale nuclear strike in let's say a unpopulated region to scare the $hit out of Taiwanese people. The point is, there are many ways Chinese can approach this war, and they can turn it into a defensive war instead of suffering heavy casualties in an offensive war.

The problem is your scenario is wildly unrealistic and still not sensible. China can't politically excessively harm Taiwanese civillian targets, and would not gain domesticly for doing so. Using nukes as a threat would unify most of the rest of the world against China. I'd expect to see Great Britain as well as other countries actually lending military aid to Taiwan under these circumtances. The US would threaten China with nuclear retaliation against Chinese cities if they used a nuke against Taiwan.

The US also will continue to enjoy aerial dominence over China. The US actually has thousands of modern fighter jets such as F-16s, F-15s &F-18s if you consider the ones currently mothballed that could still be used effectively against China if it came to that. In combination with the US stealth bombers, the US will be quite capable of eliminating the Chinese missiles without commiting ground troops. The US could choose to strike strategic targets until China eventually sought peace.

 

[LongCoolMother]

you've got to be kidding me if you think the US will be willing to risk war with China. the US is not like the chinese government. they would NOT be willing to send off the great number american soldiers to be killed (at least, not in this situation). chinese on the other hand, would have a lot more casualties, but you have to understand the chinese government is NOT as sympathetic to human life as the USA. therefore, the chinese would be able to withstand the casualties, where, at home, US protests from the people and unrest will really start gnawing away at the US's interests of military action.

you ask will the US be able to defeat china? yes, of course. will they be willing to? you've got to be kidding me. just look at all the trouble with iraq, sure you whipped them real good, but keep in mind, iraq is NOT even nearly as huge and major as country like china. even then, look how unwilling and careful the US government is with having soldiers killed there. with the people ate home being pissed also.

i guess what im saying is that, is military intervention with the one china issue a possibility? yes, id say so, the 7th fleet will be moved in. however, do i think the US is willing to go all out to protect taiwan? definately not. do i think the US will have the sufficient will to prevent an invasion? no, i dont think so. you would expect china feels much more strongly and is much more willing about this situation than the US. the US has little to gain from this situation, therefore, an "investment" of substantial human life is not worth it. anyone who says the quality of the chinese military is disgraceful is mistaken. they might not have the cutting edge like the US, but they are definately, and in no way easily destroyed. the quality will give US an advantage, but not THAT much. btw. dont people agree that the US has much more to lose from china than from taiwan? i thought that should be a given. anyway, an all out war would be extremely coutnerproductive to both sides. the chinese more willing to lose though, as they are more extreme about this subject.

 

[rchiu]

Originally posted by: Aegion

Originally posted by: rchiu

After that, they will try to hit military targets, and at the last resort, large cities. This will force Taiwan and the US to be on the offensive end and try to reduce Chinese' missile capability. It will be much costlier for Taiwan and US force if it gets to that scenario, they will have to engage in Chinese territory to destroy Chinese missile capability. The missile strike may include smaller scale nuclear strike in let's say a unpopulated region to scare the $hit out of Taiwanese people. The point is, there are many ways Chinese can approach this war, and they can turn it into a defensive war instead of suffering heavy casualties in an offensive war.

The problem is your scenario is wildly unrealistic and still not sensible. China can't politically excessively harm Taiwanese civillian targets, and would not gain domesticly for doing so. Using nukes as a threat would unify most of the rest of the world against China. I'd expect to see Great Britain as well as other countries actually lending military aid to Taiwan under these circumtances. The US would threaten China with nuclear retaliation against Chinese cities if they used a nuke against Taiwan.

The US also will continue to enjoy aerial dominence over China. The US actually has thousands of modern fighter jets such as F-16s, F-15s &F-18s if you consider the ones currently mothballed that could still be used effectively against China if it came to that. In combination with the US stealth bombers, the US will be quite capable of eliminating the Chinese missiles without commiting ground troops. The US could choose to strike strategic targets until China eventually sought peace.

Hah, what does Chinese politician care about domestic opinion, they have control over all media, not to mention Chinese citizen is pretty united on Taiwan issue and no body will really cry if few hundred thousand Taiwanese die because they wanna break away from the "motherland". True if China uses nuke, most of the world is gonna unite against them, but what are those countries gonna do, invade China and replace the current politician Iraqi style? The world can't even come up with a consensus when dealing with a tiny power like Iraq, not to mention that Russia, the traditional ally of China, still has veto power in UN. I highly doubt US would risk a nuclear war with China over Taiwan in today's environment as China become more and more of a partner than enmey.

It doesn't matter what kind of equipment US has; if US wanna destroy China's missile capability, they will have to launch missiles from battle ships or fighters from carriers. That's a huge disadvantage to the hidden and mobile missile that Chinese miltary have on the land, and put American force in great danger. Even with a stealth bombers, the US will have to take the battle to Chinese territory which the Chinese are plenty capable of defending.

Anyway, no matter how advanced US military is, it will take lot casualty if it decides to protect Taiwan. Chinese will be determined to take over Taiwan if Taiwan becomes independent or on a path to become independent, no matter the cost. That's just who they are because of the history background and their national pride. The question is, is America or the rest of the free world going to have the same determination when most of their citizen haven't even heard of Taiwan and won't understand the significance of protecting the small island?

 

[LongCoolMother]

plus, if the kuomintang win the coming election, we wont have to worry about any of this at all.

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: rchiu<brHah, what does Chinese politician care about domestic opinion, they have control over all media, not to mention Chinese citizen is pretty united on Taiwan issue and no body will really cry if few hundred thousand Taiwanese die because they wanna break away from the "motherland". True if China uses nuke, most of the world is gonna unite against them, but what are those countries gonna do, invade China and replace the current politician Iraqi style? The world can't even come up with a consensus when dealing with a tiny power like Iraq, not to mention that Russia, the traditional ally of China, still has veto power in UN. I highly doubt US would risk a nuclear war with China over Taiwan in today's environment as China become more and more of a partner than enmey.

It doesn't matter what kind of equipment US has; if US wanna destroy China's missile capability, they will have to launch missiles from battle ships or fighters from carriers. That's a huge disadvantage to the hidden and mobile missile that Chinese miltary have on the land, and put American force in great danger. Even with a stealth bombers, the US will have to take the battle to Chinese territory which the Chinese are plenty capable of defending.

Anyway, no matter how advanced US military is, it will take lot casualty if it decides to protect Taiwan. Chinese will be determined to take over Taiwan if Taiwan becomes independent or on a path to become independent, no matter the cost. That's just who they are because of the history background and their national pride. The question is, is America or the rest of the free world going to have the same determination when most of their citizen haven't even heard of Taiwan and won't understand the significance of protecting the small island?

Frankly, if China kills enough Taiwanese civillians taking Taiwan, it removes any domestic benefit politically from taking the country. If they also cause enough damage to Taiwan's infrastructure and industry, that removes any real benefit from taking Taiwan for China. The world could impose economic sanctions on China that would absolutely destroy its economy, and could lead to an internal revolution. (There are other sources of cheap labor in the world that could be used.)

Currently I believe that China has only around 500 conventional missiles capable of reaching Taiwan. China produces only about 50 of these missiles per year, so it can't really replace them in time to matter once they are all expended. Some of those missiles are going to miss their targets and cause no damage, and others are going to be shot down by the Taiwanese Patriot Missiles systems. The number of important Taiwanese military installations that China would feel the need to target is actually quite large and would require quite a few missiles. This means that the number of missile sites that the US would have to target is fairly limited, especially since with the fixed installations, NORAD can monitor how many missiles are fired from each site, and use existing intel to determine how many are likely left at each installation. The US can use B2 stealth bombers with bunker busting bombs to destroy the remaining installations with significant numbers of missiles. Tactical Tomohawks can be used against mobile missile launchers when those are located.

Terror attacks actually have historically been proven rather innefective in forcing a country to surrender. The people of Taiwan would know that China has a limited number of missiles that it can throw at them, and Taiwan still has a massive army capable of repelling any Chinese naval invasion force that could appear. If anything it might bolster resistance.

 

[chuckieland]

this really waste my time

first of all
if usa will depend taiwan, if war does occur, i think it's executive decision for the u.s president when this war actually happen. i'm sure they already have plans of what to do, but only president will know which plan will be choose.
my point is "YOU ARE NOT THE USA PRESIDENT" you don't make that decision, and you can't warranty it.

i see alot of people talk like military experts, but could have never in military service.
it is extremely difficult to shoot down a fighter plane from ground, just look at WWII facts,
It is impossible to shoot down a fighter jet with bullet from the ground. that's a fact.
the only way to BRING down the fighter jet from the ground with bullet, the gound anti-air guns has to create a NET and let the fighter jet to fly into it.
Mig maybe out date, but is far superior and faster then WW2 fighter plane
Do you have any idea how hard that is?
you need act least 6 anti-air gun, to create a spider net. and you have to find a way to force the Mig to fly into it.
The facts that China doesn't need to sent SU-27/30/35 or Mig 29/31 to taiwan, and i don't think china want to risk of losing it's high tech machines when mig can do the job.
3000 of going to retire soon Mig would be good enough to bring down F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2.
reason:
how many missiles do you think each F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2 can carry?
when 3000 migs-21 comes, and all the taiwan fighter jet shoot out all it's missles. who is the sitting dock here.
bullet is no match for the missles. specially when out number in 10:1 odds.
how fast can the taiwan anti-air missiles fire? and what's the wait time before the next fire?
i don't know. but i can tell you. it's not like firing a machine gun. it's a pretty long wait.
China's navy can hold it's own against Taiwan Navy
China has lots superior subs then taiwan's 2 aging sub.

Just my hummble opinion.

 

[Zephyr106]

Originally posted by: chuckieland
this really waste my time

first of all
if usa will depend taiwan, if war does occur, i think it's executive decision for the u.s president when this war actually happen. i'm sure they already have plans of what to do, but only president will know which plan will be choose.
my point is "YOU ARE NOT THE USA PRESIDENT" you don't make that decision, and you can't warranty it.

i see alot of people talk like military experts, but could have never in military service.
it is extremely difficult to shoot down a fighter plane from ground, just look at WWII facts,
It is impossible to shoot down a fighter jet with bullet from the ground. that's a fact.
the only way to BRING down the fighter jet from the ground with bullet, the gound anti-air guns has to create a NET and let the fighter jet to fly into it.
Mig maybe out date, but is far superior and faster then WW2 fighter plane
Do you have any idea how hard that is?
you need act least 6 anti-air gun, to create a spider net. and you have to find a way to force the Mig to fly into it.
The facts that China doesn't need to sent SU-27/30/35 or Mig 29/31 to taiwan, and i don't think china want to risk of losing it's high tech machines when mig can do the job.
3000 of going to retire soon Mig would be good enough to bring down F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2.
reason:
how many missiles do you think each F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2 can carry?
when 3000 migs-21 comes, and all the taiwan fighter jet shoot out all it's missles. who is the sitting dock here.
bullet is no match for the missles. specially when out number in 10:1 odds.
how fast can the taiwan anti-air missiles fire? and what's the wait time before the next fire?
i don't know. but i can tell you. it's not like firing a machine gun. it's a pretty long wait.
China's navy can hold it's own against Taiwan Navy
China has lots superior subs then taiwan's 2 aging sub.

Just my hummble opinion.

All this is fine and good, if you're playing Command and Conquer. The question is why would China invade? Would the benefits outweigh the costs? If China invades Taiwan, they loose investment and commerce from Taiwan, the US, and a whole boatload of other nations. That foreign investment and commerce is completely propelling the Chinese pre-capitalist economy. China will have quite a time fighting the generally more advanced military hardware of Taiwan, and risks intervention by a superior US military as well as US allies such as Australia. And what do they gain? A small cratered island, lots of dead, perhaps global war?

Someone above got it right, this is a face issue, the politicians on all sides huff and puff to look tough and get votes, and they seem to convince many in China, Taiwan, and the US that invasion could happen any day now. But money drives everything and warfare across the straights would certainly not help the money flow.

Zephyr

 

[chuckieland]

Originally posted by: Aegion

Originally posted by: rchiu<brHah, what does Chinese politician care about domestic opinion, they have control over all media, not to mention Chinese citizen is pretty united on Taiwan issue and no body will really cry if few hundred thousand Taiwanese die because they wanna break away from the "motherland". True if China uses nuke, most of the world is gonna unite against them, but what are those countries gonna do, invade China and replace the current politician Iraqi style? The world can't even come up with a consensus when dealing with a tiny power like Iraq, not to mention that Russia, the traditional ally of China, still has veto power in UN. I highly doubt US would risk a nuclear war with China over Taiwan in today's environment as China become more and more of a partner than enmey.

It doesn't matter what kind of equipment US has; if US wanna destroy China's missile capability, they will have to launch missiles from battle ships or fighters from carriers. That's a huge disadvantage to the hidden and mobile missile that Chinese miltary have on the land, and put American force in great danger. Even with a stealth bombers, the US will have to take the battle to Chinese territory which the Chinese are plenty capable of defending.

Anyway, no matter how advanced US military is, it will take lot casualty if it decides to protect Taiwan. Chinese will be determined to take over Taiwan if Taiwan becomes independent or on a path to become independent, no matter the cost. That's just who they are because of the history background and their national pride. The question is, is America or the rest of the free world going to have the same determination when most of their citizen haven't even heard of Taiwan and won't understand the significance of protecting the small island?

Frankly, if China kills enough Taiwanese civillians taking Taiwan, it removes any domestic benefit politically from taking the country. If they also cause enough damage to Taiwan's infrastructure and industry, that removes any real benefit from taking Taiwan for China. The world could impose economic sanctions on China that would absolutely destroy its economy, and could lead to an internal revolution. (There are other sources of cheap labor in the world that could be used.)

Currently I believe that China has only around 500 conventional missiles capable of reaching Taiwan. China produces only about 50 of these missiles per year, so it can't really replace them in time to matter once they are all expended. Some of those missiles are going to miss their targets and cause no damage, and others are going to be shot down by the Taiwanese Patriot Missiles systems. The number of important Taiwanese military installations that China would feel the need to target is actually quite large and would require quite a few missiles. This means that the number of missile sites that the US would have to target is fairly limited, especially since with the fixed installations, NORAD can monitor how many missiles are fired from each site, and use existing intel to determine how many are likely left at each installation. The US can use B2 stealth bombers with bunker busting bombs to destroy the remaining installations with significant numbers of missiles. Tactical Tomohawks can be used against mobile missile launchers when those are located.

Terror attacks actually have historically been proven rather innefective in forcing a country to surrender. The people of Taiwan would know that China has a limited number of missiles that it can throw at them, and Taiwan still has a massive army capable of repelling any Chinese naval invasion force that could appear. If anything it might bolster resistance.

i disagree with you
first of all, China doesn't not want taiwan for benfits. it see Taiwan as Part of itself. with or without benfit, it will not allow taiwan to seperate.
second of all, try not to confuse people, to think there is a nation call taiwan. it's call Republic of China
so maybe be best not to use Taiwan military, and use Republic of China Military.

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: chuckieland<bri disagree with you
first of all, China doesn't not want taiwan for benfits. it see Taiwan as Part of itself. with or without benfit, it will not allow taiwan to seperate.
second of all, try not to confuse people, to think there is a nation call taiwan. it's call Republic of China
so maybe be best not to use Taiwan military, and use Republic of China Military.

I'm skeptical that China's leader's would be actually willing to suffer the costs of an invasion without even some benefits in return. On you second point, if you are mortally offended by the other term I'll consider it, but Taiwan is easier since it avoids the confusion of calling what are definately two seperate military forces extremely similar names. (We'll have people thinking that we're referring to the other side's military by mistake.)

 

[LongCoolMother]

Originally posted by: Zephyr106

Originally posted by: chuckieland
this really waste my time

first of all
if usa will depend taiwan, if war does occur, i think it's executive decision for the u.s president when this war actually happen. i'm sure they already have plans of what to do, but only president will know which plan will be choose.
my point is "YOU ARE NOT THE USA PRESIDENT" you don't make that decision, and you can't warranty it.

i see alot of people talk like military experts, but could have never in military service.
it is extremely difficult to shoot down a fighter plane from ground, just look at WWII facts,
It is impossible to shoot down a fighter jet with bullet from the ground. that's a fact.
the only way to BRING down the fighter jet from the ground with bullet, the gound anti-air guns has to create a NET and let the fighter jet to fly into it.
Mig maybe out date, but is far superior and faster then WW2 fighter plane
Do you have any idea how hard that is?
you need act least 6 anti-air gun, to create a spider net. and you have to find a way to force the Mig to fly into it.
The facts that China doesn't need to sent SU-27/30/35 or Mig 29/31 to taiwan, and i don't think china want to risk of losing it's high tech machines when mig can do the job.
3000 of going to retire soon Mig would be good enough to bring down F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2.
reason:
how many missiles do you think each F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2 can carry?
when 3000 migs-21 comes, and all the taiwan fighter jet shoot out all it's missles. who is the sitting dock here.
bullet is no match for the missles. specially when out number in 10:1 odds.
how fast can the taiwan anti-air missiles fire? and what's the wait time before the next fire?
i don't know. but i can tell you. it's not like firing a machine gun. it's a pretty long wait.
China's navy can hold it's own against Taiwan Navy
China has lots superior subs then taiwan's 2 aging sub.

Just my hummble opinion.

All this is fine and good, if you're playing Command and Conquer. The question is why would China invade? Would the benefits outweigh the costs? If China invades Taiwan, they loose investment and commerce from Taiwan, the US, and a whole boatload of other nations. That foreign investment and commerce is completely propelling the Chinese pre-capitalist economy. China will have quite a time fighting the generally more advanced military hardware of Taiwan, and risks intervention by a superior US military as well as US allies such as Australia. And what do they gain? A small cratered island, lots of dead, perhaps global war?

Someone above got it right, this is a face issue, the politicians on all sides huff and puff to look tough and get votes, and they seem to convince many in China, Taiwan, and the US that invasion could happen any day now. But money drives everything and warfare across the straights would certainly not help the money flow.

Zephyr

i agree with whoever said the face issue- but a DIFFERENT face issue. this is not an issue of china gaining or losing anything. its about reputation/pride/face/ whatever you want to call it. if the chinese let taiwan go independent without a hitch, the government would be a big embarassment to their own people. i doubt the chinese really have a whole lot to gain from invading taiwan, and they know that. but they are doing it on a "losing face" basis. they dont want to be embarassed, especially by a *small country* that they consider their own.

i see it this way. they're damned if they do, they're damned if they dont. right now when china-us relations are warming quite a bit business and political wise, itd be a terrible thing for the chinese to sabotage those ties by invading taiwan. however, itd be even worse to them if they let taiwan go. the president would be regarded by his people a failure in history.

i mean really, china has been essentially satisfied with the current status quo of the two nations for decades. its taiwan's decision whether they want to upset this balance now, and we'll see in a few days. i personally think both sides should work slowly for a resolution. either that, or just dont change anything.

 

[chuckieland]

Originally posted by: Zephyr106

Originally posted by: chuckieland
this really waste my time

first of all
if usa will depend taiwan, if war does occur, i think it's executive decision for the u.s president when this war actually happen. i'm sure they already have plans of what to do, but only president will know which plan will be choose.
my point is "YOU ARE NOT THE USA PRESIDENT" you don't make that decision, and you can't warranty it.

i see alot of people talk like military experts, but could have never in military service.
it is extremely difficult to shoot down a fighter plane from ground, just look at WWII facts,
It is impossible to shoot down a fighter jet with bullet from the ground. that's a fact.
the only way to BRING down the fighter jet from the ground with bullet, the gound anti-air guns has to create a NET and let the fighter jet to fly into it.
Mig maybe out date, but is far superior and faster then WW2 fighter plane
Do you have any idea how hard that is?
you need act least 6 anti-air gun, to create a spider net. and you have to find a way to force the Mig to fly into it.
The facts that China doesn't need to sent SU-27/30/35 or Mig 29/31 to taiwan, and i don't think china want to risk of losing it's high tech machines when mig can do the job.
3000 of going to retire soon Mig would be good enough to bring down F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2.
reason:
how many missiles do you think each F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2 can carry?
when 3000 migs-21 comes, and all the taiwan fighter jet shoot out all it's missles. who is the sitting dock here.
bullet is no match for the missles. specially when out number in 10:1 odds.
how fast can the taiwan anti-air missiles fire? and what's the wait time before the next fire?
i don't know. but i can tell you. it's not like firing a machine gun. it's a pretty long wait.
China's navy can hold it's own against Taiwan Navy
China has lots superior subs then taiwan's 2 aging sub.

Just my hummble opinion.

All this is fine and good, if you're playing Command and Conquer. The question is why would China invade? Would the benefits outweigh the costs? If China invades Taiwan, they loose investment and commerce from Taiwan, the US, and a whole boatload of other nations. That foreign investment and commerce is completely propelling the Chinese pre-capitalist economy. China will have quite a time fighting the generally more advanced military hardware of Taiwan, and risks intervention by a superior US military as well as US allies such as Australia. And what do they gain? A small cratered island, lots of dead, perhaps global war?

Someone above got it right, this is a face issue, the politicians on all sides huff and puff to look tough and get votes, and they seem to convince many in China, Taiwan, and the US that invasion could happen any day now. But money drives everything and warfare across the straights would certainly not help the money flow.

Zephyr

This is not a face issue
no nation in the world would let another nation take part of itself without a fight.
China is fine with situation right now, because it's unfinish civil war. taiwan's national name still is :"Republic of China".
but if taiwan want to seperate and create a nation call republic of taiwan. then it's WAR.

 

[LongCoolMother]

Originally posted by: chuckieland

Originally posted by: Zephyr106

Originally posted by: chuckieland
this really waste my time

first of all
if usa will depend taiwan, if war does occur, i think it's executive decision for the u.s president when this war actually happen. i'm sure they already have plans of what to do, but only president will know which plan will be choose.
my point is "YOU ARE NOT THE USA PRESIDENT" you don't make that decision, and you can't warranty it.

i see alot of people talk like military experts, but could have never in military service.
it is extremely difficult to shoot down a fighter plane from ground, just look at WWII facts,
It is impossible to shoot down a fighter jet with bullet from the ground. that's a fact.
the only way to BRING down the fighter jet from the ground with bullet, the gound anti-air guns has to create a NET and let the fighter jet to fly into it.
Mig maybe out date, but is far superior and faster then WW2 fighter plane
Do you have any idea how hard that is?
you need act least 6 anti-air gun, to create a spider net. and you have to find a way to force the Mig to fly into it.
The facts that China doesn't need to sent SU-27/30/35 or Mig 29/31 to taiwan, and i don't think china want to risk of losing it's high tech machines when mig can do the job.
3000 of going to retire soon Mig would be good enough to bring down F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2.
reason:
how many missiles do you think each F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2 can carry?
when 3000 migs-21 comes, and all the taiwan fighter jet shoot out all it's missles. who is the sitting dock here.
bullet is no match for the missles. specially when out number in 10:1 odds.
how fast can the taiwan anti-air missiles fire? and what's the wait time before the next fire?
i don't know. but i can tell you. it's not like firing a machine gun. it's a pretty long wait.
China's navy can hold it's own against Taiwan Navy
China has lots superior subs then taiwan's 2 aging sub.

Just my hummble opinion.

All this is fine and good, if you're playing Command and Conquer. The question is why would China invade? Would the benefits outweigh the costs? If China invades Taiwan, they loose investment and commerce from Taiwan, the US, and a whole boatload of other nations. That foreign investment and commerce is completely propelling the Chinese pre-capitalist economy. China will have quite a time fighting the generally more advanced military hardware of Taiwan, and risks intervention by a superior US military as well as US allies such as Australia. And what do they gain? A small cratered island, lots of dead, perhaps global war?

Someone above got it right, this is a face issue, the politicians on all sides huff and puff to look tough and get votes, and they seem to convince many in China, Taiwan, and the US that invasion could happen any day now. But money drives everything and warfare across the straights would certainly not help the money flow.

Zephyr

This is not a face issue
no nation in the world would let another nation take part of itself without a fight.
China is fine with situation right now, because it's unfinish civil war. taiwan's national name still is :"Republic of China".
but if taiwan want to seperate and create a nation call republic of taiwan. then it's WAR.

what you stated is sort of a face issue in a slightly different manner, even if you dont want to call it that. we'll see in a few days. if he's reelected, we should all brace for war.

 

[chuckieland]

Originally posted by: Aegion

Originally posted by: chuckieland<bri disagree with you
first of all, China doesn't not want taiwan for benfits. it see Taiwan as Part of itself. with or without benfit, it will not allow taiwan to seperate.
second of all, try not to confuse people, to think there is a nation call taiwan. it's call Republic of China
so maybe be best not to use Taiwan military, and use Republic of China Military.

I'm skeptical that China's leader's would be actually willing to suffer the costs of an invasion without even some benefits in return. On you second point, if you are mortally offended by the other term I'll consider it, but Taiwan is easier since it avoids the confusion of calling what are definately two seperate military forces extremely similar names. (We'll have people thinking that we're referring to the other side's military by mistake.)

that is true, but it'll create another confusing, that making people think there is a national call taiwan.
i really don't see how people would say it's an face issue. unless they got confuse. by term

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: chuckieland
this really waste my time

first of all
if usa will depend taiwan, if war does occur, i think it's executive decision for the u.s president when this war actually happen. i'm sure they already have plans of what to do, but only president will know which plan will be choose.
my point is "YOU ARE NOT THE USA PRESIDENT" you don't make that decision, and you can't warranty it.

i see alot of people talk like military experts, but could have never in military service.
it is extremely difficult to shoot down a fighter plane from ground, just look at WWII facts,
It is impossible to shoot down a fighter jet with bullet from the ground. that's a fact.
the only way to BRING down the fighter jet from the ground with bullet, the gound anti-air guns has to create a NET and let the fighter jet to fly into it.
Mig maybe out date, but is far superior and faster then WW2 fighter plane
Do you have any idea how hard that is?
you need act least 6 anti-air gun, to create a spider net. and you have to find a way to force the Mig to fly into it.
The facts that China doesn't need to sent SU-27/30/35 or Mig 29/31 to taiwan, and i don't think china want to risk of losing it's high tech machines when mig can do the job.
3000 of going to retire soon Mig would be good enough to bring down F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2.
reason:
how many missiles do you think each F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2 can carry?
when 3000 migs-21 comes, and all the taiwan fighter jet shoot out all it's missles. who is the sitting dock here.
bullet is no match for the missles. specially when out number in 10:1 odds.
how fast can the taiwan anti-air missiles fire? and what's the wait time before the next fire?
i don't know. but i can tell you. it's not like firing a machine gun. it's a pretty long wait.
China's navy can hold it's own against Taiwan Navy
China has lots superior subs then taiwan's 2 aging sub.

Just my hummble opinion.

What's your military background exactly? Just because someone has a military background does not automaticly make them correct on all things military.

Taiwan also appears to have 246 F-5 Phantoms in reserve that are somewhat modernized and could be used effectively against the older Chinese fighter plane models, so the numerical disparity is not as great as you seem to think it is.

Upon further review, the most common aircraft in the Chinese inventory appears to be based on the Soviet Mig-19. The aircraft has a total combat radius of 685 kilometers, and at least 210 kilometers of that is going to be taken up just crossing the straight between China and Taiwan. The island itself is 144 kilometers wide, and the fighters are probably going to have to cross some of that distance before engaging the Taiwanese fighters. Fighter combat eats up a huge amount of fuel, and the Chinese fighters run a real risk of not having enough fuel to cross the straight again and return to China. The bigger issue is that only a small number of Chinese airbases are close to Taiwan, so with the plane's limited range, only a few of them can be sent against Taiwan at one time, so your swarm tactic won't work. The Mig 21's have similar range issues. I'll talk about other issues later, but I'll note right now that both the the Mig-19 and Mig 21 have cruising speeds of less than 600 mph, not all that much faster than many WW2 fighters!

Edit: Your claim of the rate anti-aircraft missile batteries can fire at appears badly wrong as at first glance, the HAWK air defense system can fire at a rate of 1 missile every 3 seconds, and the stinger missile systems can fire one missile every 3 seconds to 7 seconds.
http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/hawk.htm
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/stinger.htm

 

[chuckieland]

Originally posted by: Aegion

Originally posted by: chuckieland
this really waste my time

first of all
if usa will depend taiwan, if war does occur, i think it's executive decision for the u.s president when this war actually happen. i'm sure they already have plans of what to do, but only president will know which plan will be choose.
my point is "YOU ARE NOT THE USA PRESIDENT" you don't make that decision, and you can't warranty it.

i see alot of people talk like military experts, but could have never in military service.
it is extremely difficult to shoot down a fighter plane from ground, just look at WWII facts,
It is impossible to shoot down a fighter jet with bullet from the ground. that's a fact.
the only way to BRING down the fighter jet from the ground with bullet, the gound anti-air guns has to create a NET and let the fighter jet to fly into it.
Mig maybe out date, but is far superior and faster then WW2 fighter plane
Do you have any idea how hard that is?
you need act least 6 anti-air gun, to create a spider net. and you have to find a way to force the Mig to fly into it.
The facts that China doesn't need to sent SU-27/30/35 or Mig 29/31 to taiwan, and i don't think china want to risk of losing it's high tech machines when mig can do the job.
3000 of going to retire soon Mig would be good enough to bring down F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2.
reason:
how many missiles do you think each F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2 can carry?
when 3000 migs-21 comes, and all the taiwan fighter jet shoot out all it's missles. who is the sitting dock here.
bullet is no match for the missles. specially when out number in 10:1 odds.
how fast can the taiwan anti-air missiles fire? and what's the wait time before the next fire?
i don't know. but i can tell you. it's not like firing a machine gun. it's a pretty long wait.
China's navy can hold it's own against Taiwan Navy
China has lots superior subs then taiwan's 2 aging sub.

Just my hummble opinion.

What's your military background exactly? Just because someone has a military background does not automaticly make them correct on all things military.

Taiwan also appears to have 246 F-5 Phantoms in reserve that are somewhat modernized and could be used effectively against the older Chinese fighter plane models, so the numerical disparity is not as great as you seem to think it is.

Upon further review, the most common aircraft in the Chinese inventory appears to be based on the Soviet Mig-19. The aircraft has a total combat radius of 685 kilometers, and at least 210 kilometers of that is going to be taken up just crossing the straight between China and Taiwan. The island itself is 144 kilometers wide, and the fighters are probably going to have to cross some of that distance before engaging the Taiwanese fighters. Fighter combat eats up a huge amount of fuel, and the Chinese fighters run a real risk of not having enough fuel to cross the straight again and return to China. The bigger issue is that only a small number of Chinese airbases are close to Taiwan, so with the plane's limited range, only a few of them can be sent against Taiwan at one time, so your swarm tactic won't work. The Mig 21's have similar range issues. I'll talk about other issues later, but I'll note right now that both the the Mig-19 and Mig 21 have cruising speeds of less than 600 mph, not all that much faster than many WW2 fighters!

Edit: Your claim of the rate anti-aircraft missile batteries can fire at appears badly wrong as at first glance, the HAWK air defense system can fire at a rate of 1 missile every 3 seconds, and the stinger missile systems can fire one missile every 3 seconds to 7 seconds.
http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/hawk.htm
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/stinger.htm

hey, sorry
there is NO F5 phamton
taiwan used to have F4 Phamton, but usa borrow it to use on Vietment war.
USA replace it with F5 Tiger
if you talking about reserve fighter jet, taiwan has F5 tiger and F104
but F104 is all retire, and the F5 tiger has alot of problem due to aging, few that can fly are use to train newbie fighter pilot.
the two link you sent are used on USA force, not Taiwanese force
those are mobile anti-air defence. they cannot to used as comparison to Taiwan's anti-air defence system.
why?
because taiwan's anti-air defence is built deep under ground, it cannot be relocated, and it harder and costly to do upgrade too.
what you say, it's true, when taiwan recieve the new patriot 3 from the usa. even then, the number are limited.
as for the stinger, they don't work as well as the anti-air missiles.
it's gonna be hard to used the stinger too, since i did image the first wave of air fight will be on the air of the sea, a bit distance from taiwan. stinger are pretty useless when you are on the defence side.
why?
because when you have to use stinger on defence, that mean your airforce, Navy are gone, and enemies has landed on your land. Hint: the war is pretty much over.

you are right, a person with military background, may not be right on the military issue, but we have more understanding on how does it work. and how useful it's useful.

you base your facts on paper, and it's like laptop batterly, it never perform as it writen on paper in real life.
you forgetting issue on Jam, technical problem, personnel problem....etc

 

[LongCoolMother]

Originally posted by: chuckieland

Originally posted by: Aegion

Originally posted by: chuckieland
this really waste my time

first of all
if usa will depend taiwan, if war does occur, i think it's executive decision for the u.s president when this war actually happen. i'm sure they already have plans of what to do, but only president will know which plan will be choose.
my point is "YOU ARE NOT THE USA PRESIDENT" you don't make that decision, and you can't warranty it.

i see alot of people talk like military experts, but could have never in military service.
it is extremely difficult to shoot down a fighter plane from ground, just look at WWII facts,
It is impossible to shoot down a fighter jet with bullet from the ground. that's a fact.
the only way to BRING down the fighter jet from the ground with bullet, the gound anti-air guns has to create a NET and let the fighter jet to fly into it.
Mig maybe out date, but is far superior and faster then WW2 fighter plane
Do you have any idea how hard that is?
you need act least 6 anti-air gun, to create a spider net. and you have to find a way to force the Mig to fly into it.
The facts that China doesn't need to sent SU-27/30/35 or Mig 29/31 to taiwan, and i don't think china want to risk of losing it's high tech machines when mig can do the job.
3000 of going to retire soon Mig would be good enough to bring down F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2.
reason:
how many missiles do you think each F-16, Mirage 2000, and IDF2 can carry?
when 3000 migs-21 comes, and all the taiwan fighter jet shoot out all it's missles. who is the sitting dock here.
bullet is no match for the missles. specially when out number in 10:1 odds.
how fast can the taiwan anti-air missiles fire? and what's the wait time before the next fire?
i don't know. but i can tell you. it's not like firing a machine gun. it's a pretty long wait.
China's navy can hold it's own against Taiwan Navy
China has lots superior subs then taiwan's 2 aging sub.

Just my hummble opinion.

What's your military background exactly? Just because someone has a military background does not automaticly make them correct on all things military.

Taiwan also appears to have 246 F-5 Phantoms in reserve that are somewhat modernized and could be used effectively against the older Chinese fighter plane models, so the numerical disparity is not as great as you seem to think it is.

Upon further review, the most common aircraft in the Chinese inventory appears to be based on the Soviet Mig-19. The aircraft has a total combat radius of 685 kilometers, and at least 210 kilometers of that is going to be taken up just crossing the straight between China and Taiwan. The island itself is 144 kilometers wide, and the fighters are probably going to have to cross some of that distance before engaging the Taiwanese fighters. Fighter combat eats up a huge amount of fuel, and the Chinese fighters run a real risk of not having enough fuel to cross the straight again and return to China. The bigger issue is that only a small number of Chinese airbases are close to Taiwan, so with the plane's limited range, only a few of them can be sent against Taiwan at one time, so your swarm tactic won't work. The Mig 21's have similar range issues. I'll talk about other issues later, but I'll note right now that both the the Mig-19 and Mig 21 have cruising speeds of less than 600 mph, not all that much faster than many WW2 fighters!

Edit: Your claim of the rate anti-aircraft missile batteries can fire at appears badly wrong as at first glance, the HAWK air defense system can fire at a rate of 1 missile every 3 seconds, and the stinger missile systems can fire one missile every 3 seconds to 7 seconds.
http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/hawk.htm
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/stinger.htm

hey, sorry
there is NO F5 phamton
taiwan used to have F4 Phamton, but usa borrow it to use on Vietment war.
USA replace it with F5 Tiger
if you talking about reserve fighter jet, taiwan has F5 tiger and F104
but F104 is all retire, and the F5 tiger has alot of problem due to aging, few that can fly are use to train newbie fighter pilot.
the two link you sent are used on USA force, not Taiwanese force
those are mobile anti-air defence. they cannot to used as comparison to Taiwan's anti-air defence system.
why?
because taiwan's anti-air defence is built deep under ground, it cannot be relocated, and it harder and costly to do upgrade too.
what you say, it's true, when taiwan recieve the new patriot 3 from the usa. even then, the number are limited.
as for the stinger, they don't work as well as the anti-air missiles.
it's gonna be hard to used the stinger too, since i did image the first wave of air fight will be on the air of the sea, a bit distance from taiwan. stinger are pretty useless when you are on the defence side.
why?
because when you have to use stinger on defence, that mean your airforce, Navy are gone, and enemies has landed on your land. Hint: the war is pretty much over.

you are right, a person with military background, may not be right on the military issue, but we have more understanding on how does it work. and how useful it's useful.

you base your facts on paper, and it's like laptop batterly, it never perform as it writen on paper in real life.
you forgetting issue on Jam, technical problem, personnel problem....etc

LOL!!!!! best analogy EVER.

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: chuckieland
hey, sorry
there is NO F5 phamton
taiwan used to have F4 Phamton, but usa borrow it to use on Vietment war.
USA replace it with F5 Tiger
if you talking about reserve fighter jet, taiwan has F5 tiger and F104
but F104 is all retire, and the F5 tiger has alot of problem due to aging, few that can fly are use to train newbie fighter pilot.

the two link you sent are used on USA force, not Taiwanese force
those are mobile anti-air defence. they cannot to used as comparison to Taiwan's anti-air defence system.
why?
because taiwan's anti-air defence is built deep under ground, it cannot be relocated, and it harder and costly to do upgrade too.
what you say, it's true, when taiwan recieve the new patriot 3 from the usa. even then, the number are limited.
as for the stinger, they don't work as well as the anti-air missiles.
it's gonna be hard to used the stinger too, since i did image the first wave of air fight will be on the air of the sea, a bit distance from taiwan. stinger are pretty useless when you are on the defence side.
why?
because when you have to use stinger on defence, that mean your airforce, Navy are gone, and enemies has landed on your land. Hint: the war is pretty much over.

you are right, a person with military background, may not be right on the military issue, but we have more understanding on how does it work. and how useful it's useful.

you base your facts on paper, and it's like laptop batterly, it never perform as it writen on paper in real life.
you forgetting issue on Jam, technical problem, personnel problem....etc

You're right about it being the F5E Tiger. Taiwan does seem to be taking some steps to extend the life of the airframe. This site seems to suggest that over 90 F5 Tigers are currently being used as part of the active military forces. I'm pretty confident that a substancial portion of the remaining ones (Taiwan had as many as 283 in 1990) are in storage and still flyable. They might have a high risk of accidents occuring due to mechanical failure, but in an all out wartime scenario such as presented for this hypothetical situation, these risks can be ignored due to the potential military benefits of utilizing the hardware. (You might not end up flying the fighter much longer due to getting shot down, so you shouldn't worry about how much life is left on the airframe too much anyways.) Since Taiwan's airforce would be on the defensive, they are likely to lose planes but not the pilots who can eject over friendly territory, so these pilots can be used to fly the F5E Tigers.

You need to read my posts more carefully before criticizing them. I had previously already shown that the Stinger missile had been purchased by Taiwan from the US. The Stinger may not be as good as other anti-aircraft missiles, but against low flying jets moving at speed under 600 miles per hour, it would be extremely effective. It would have problems against modern Flankers and the like, but it can still potentially be a threat even from them. The HAWK has been part of Taiwan's arsenal due to purchases from the US for awhile.

Here's a link to a slighly outdated site which includes a listing of the estimated number of I-Hawk (Improved Hawk) anti-aircraft defense systems right here.

I don't see why the Taiwanese airforce ordinarily needs to engage Mig-21s over sea. In order for them to cause damage to Taiwanese targets, they need to actually reach Taiwan. Many of these aircraft lack radar, making it difficult for them to track and intercept other planes. The fact the Taiwanese fighters are far faster than the older model Migs is an additional complication. Finally, the low fuel limits combined with a relatively limited number of airbases in the area to opperate out of mean that not many older Migs can be in the air at once to intercept Taiwanese Airforce strikes.

The basic problem China has is that it doesn't even have enough transports to sucessfully invade right now. (3 divisions at most as part of the initial landing force is going to be overwhelmed by the Taiwanese counter attack.)
Even once they do, they are going to need a very large number number of transports and the willlingness to lose many of the forces that are attacking from attacks by Taiwanese naval and air force attacks. The only way this would not be true is if China becomes so dominent than their military opposition. This is a much more difficult feat than the Chinese Navy being "more than a match" for the Taiwanese Navy.

This means that the Taiwanese airforce can attack Chinese sea based targets without often having to engage the older Chinese fighters. (The oldest models can be hit by AMRAAM Missiles and knocked out of the sky before they can even fight back.)