Trouble in Taiwan

[chuckieland]

first, Taiwan's currently president already say, if there are going to be a war with china, he'd prefer it's fight outside of Taiwan (meaning at sea) so Taiwan's AF will certainly engage China's AF at sea.


second, you are over confident on taiwan's defence with what's on paper, and you look down too much on enemie's ability.(not a good way to plan, useful way is hope for the best and prepare for the worse)
China will not tell you what in their sleeve.

Taiwan can upgrade F5, why can't china upgrade their mig? lost time i check, the mig has no problem finding usa spy plane.

few example on why you shouldn't take paper value too much.
1.stinger on deference, you'll not be using it to shoot down mig. it'll be against bomber jet.
reason: mig are not need with taiwan AF are gone. and bomber jet take over to help the ground force.
why: because bomber jet won't show up when taiwan AF is defending the air, and it's way out of stinger's range.

2.in order for taiwan's missile deference to work, they have to turn on their radar, there is certain type of missile that are shoot out to detect radar signal, and follow it to the source to destroyed it.
I would think taiwan's anti-air defence will be switch on/off on alot.
which take a performance hit.

3.red army is not stupid, they definely now the information you know, and they may have solution that you didn't know.

4.Taiwan's AF definely need to engage china's AF at sea, otherwise taiwan Navy has not air support
the mig can drop tobepo, china's navy ship can first missile, and large number of sub can fire tobepo
too much for Taiwan Navy to handle even with help of taiwan's AF.(they'll be busy)

5. don't mention taiwan's sub killer helicop, because they are useless until China AF are gone, and china's ship cannot fire any missile.

6. it's not what you have, it's how you protect it and use it when you need it.
If they are war between Taiwan and China, the commanding General and the skill of the troops to carry out the order are the main deciding factor.
all other is just blocks, and it can be overcome soon or later.

 

[LordMagnusKain]

i don't think anyone can reasonably believe that the Chinese would have a hard time winning a war against any non-nuclear power.

 

[maddogchen]

Originally posted by: LordMagnusKain
i don't think anyone can reasonably believe that the Chinese would have a hard time winning a war against any non-nuclear power.

I don't know....They got their ass kicked in Vietnam. They went in thinking they could teach the Vietnamese a lesson, and the Vietnamese said what? you didn't see us kick butt against France and US? So they proceeded to kick China's butt, and when they tried to run away(withdraw) they cut them off and kicked them some more.

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: LordMagnusKain
i don't think anyone can reasonably believe that the Chinese would have a hard time winning a war against any non-nuclear power.

Actually I would argue that China would have a hard time winning a war against a large portion of the world's powers, and arguing otherwise after thinking about it what would be unreasonable. (I'll leave nuking the other to win out of this, although many countries are out of the range of Chinese ballistic missiles anyways.) What would happen in most cases is that China would be unable to project power, so the war would end in a deadlock.

The point on this issue is made in the following article.

Nor does China have anywhere near enough transport capability to launch a successful amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait. It would take approximately 600 modern landing craft nearly two weeks to transport 20 infantry divisions (750,000 men) to Taiwan. Currently, China has the ability of moving only one or two divisions.

http://www2.tltc.ttu.edu/saideman/news%20articles/ir%20stuff/06sham.html

While it might be 3 years old, I've seen absolute no evidence, or even serious speculation, that China has substancially improved its amphibious capabilities since then.

When invading most countries (assuming for the sake of discussion that no-one would come to that country's defense) China would be sending a couple of divisions out that would need to conquer the country or occupy a substancial area without any support or supplies for quite some time. Reinforcements wouldn't appear in many cases for weeks. On top of this, most countries have navies or some sort of airforce that could attack the invasion force before it landed. Just to give an example, virtually all the European countries are capable of repelling a theoretical invasion utilizing China's current capabilities.

If Taiwan was next to China and landlocked, I'd aknowledge that China could definately take them over militarily if they wanted to. Since they are on an island over 100 miles from the Chinese Mainland, most of the factors I mentioned above come into play to a lesser degreee. China simply can't effectively move enough of its army to Taiwan to have a chance of taking over the country right now.

 

[Spencer278]

I don't think it would take more then a few months at most to build hundreds of the types of boats used in invading normandy in WWII. They could build a few thounsands lose half and then have enought troops on shore to hold the beach headed.

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: Spencer278
I don't think it would take more then a few months at most to build hundreds of the types of boats used in invading normandy in WWII. They could build a few thounsands lose half and then have enought troops on shore to hold the beach headed.

A major issue is that the distance between Taiwan and Mainland China is 3 time as long as the distance between England and Normandy. Slow moving vessiles such as the type you are suggesting would take a very long time to reach Taiwan. Besides its airforce and navy, Taiwan can also launch anti-shipping missiles from land bases, and since missiles such as the Hsiung-Feng II has roughly an 80 kilometer range, they can start attacking the invading armada from quite a distance. Taiwan would notice the sort of naval buildup you mention and could respond by building substancially more of these missiles in response. Taiwan also has the M110A2 Self-Propelled Howitzer which has a range of more than 18 miles, as well as the LT-2000 Rocket lauched artillerly system which has a range of 28 miles and can be very lethal against the sort of tighly concentrated armada necessary to overwhelm a beach's defenses. Taiwan can also stick sea minefields in front of the possible invasion beaches as well as have its helicopter use their Hellfire anti-tank missiles to lethal effect against the invasion forces. When the force get close, Taiwan plans to utilize their tank's main gun to target landing craft before they get too close to the beach, and anti-tank missiles such as the Javelin could be used in this role as well.

The really big issue is that Taiwan's standing army is over 250,000 men, and its reserve force is over 1.5 million men. China needs not just enough forces to hold a beachhead, but needs enough naval transports to survive that they can subtancially reinforce and continue to supply the invading force. If China loses half of the invading force before it can land, you're looking at 100,000s of thousands of casualties.

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: chuckieland

few example on why you shouldn't take paper value too much.
1.stinger on deference, you'll not be using it to shoot down mig. it'll be against bomber jet.
reason: mig are not need with taiwan AF are gone. and bomber jet take over to help the ground force.
why: because bomber jet won't show up when taiwan AF is defending the air, and it's way out of stinger's range.

I don't have time to fully respond to your post right now, but the Stinger is the ONLY air defense missile in Taiwan's mobile arsenal that is likely to have much trouble hitting bombers.

The Hawk Missile has a max altitude of 30,000 feet, the commonly deployed M733 Chaparral 20,000 feet, the commonly deployed SKYGUARD - SPARROW 30,000 feet with the ability to intercept anything within an 11 miles radius.

The fixed TIEN KUNG I defense system can engage targets within 50 miles of its position, so its not easy to avoid them, and especially with the units on outlying Taiwan controlled islands, it can target Chinese fighters even while they are still at sea. It has a max altitude engagement range of 73,600 ft.

Taiwan has abundant air defense capable of taking out Chinese bombers.
http://www.emeraldesigns.com/matchup/antiair.htm
(I don't always agree with the site's conclusions, but the info it provides being in one place is extremely useful.)

 

[chuckieland]

Originally posted by: Aegion

Originally posted by: chuckieland

few example on why you shouldn't take paper value too much.
1.stinger on deference, you'll not be using it to shoot down mig. it'll be against bomber jet.
reason: mig are not need with taiwan AF are gone. and bomber jet take over to help the ground force.
why: because bomber jet won't show up when taiwan AF is defending the air, and it's way out of stinger's range.

I don't have time to fully respond to your post right now, but the Stinger is the ONLY air defense missile in Taiwan's mobile arsenal that is likely to have much trouble hitting bombers.

The Hawk Missile has a max altitude of 30,000 feet, the commonly deployed M733 Chaparral 20,000 feet, the commonly deployed SKYGUARD - SPARROW 30,000 feet with the ability to intercept anything within an 11 miles radius.

The fixed TIEN KUNG I defense system can engage targets within 50 miles of its position, so its not easy to avoid them, and especially with the units on outlying Taiwan controlled islands, it can target Chinese fighters even while they are still at sea. It has a max altitude engagement range of 73,600 ft.

Taiwan has abundant air defense capable of taking out Chinese bombers.
http://www.emeraldesigns.com/matchup/antiair.htm
(I don't always agree with the site's conclusions, but the info it provides being in one place is extremely useful.)

yo, due
the problem is you don't read the whole story
Taiwan AF won't see any Chinese bomber, why would anybody sent a bomber squardon, when they know there is a fighter jet squardon waiting???????????????
real world doesn't work like that
what your thinking is call Fixed war (like Fixed game)
It's true, that fighter jet will shoot down bomber anyday, any time, any place. but the trick is....finding it.
It's true that bomber will always never been sent to a mission, that there could be fighter jet in range of intercept.
so your thinking taiwan AF can take care china bomer....think again.
when bomber show up, there is no friendly AF around man, otherwise, bomber will not be sent. GOT MY POINT.
6 years old child would have enough intelligent to do the following.
sent fighter jet to kill bomber
sent attack helpicaptor to kill tank
sent sub to sink the ships
sent sub-kill to sink the sub
.........etc
6 year old child would also have enough intelligent to do the follow
avoid bomber meeting fighter jet
avoid tank meeting attack helpicaptor
avoid ships meeting sub
avoid sub meeting sub-killer
.......etc
enemy will not line up at your convience to kill them.
it seem 6 years old general would be able to defeat you in war man.
it's good thing that you are not a general in Taiwan's military.
otherwise, Taiwan's military has alot of suprise coming.

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: chuckieland
yo, due
the problem is you don't read the whole story
Taiwan AF won't see any Chinese bomber, why would anybody sent a bomber squardon, when they know there is a fighter jet squardon waiting???????????????
real world doesn't work like that
what your thinking is call Fixed war (like Fixed game)
It's true, that fighter jet will shoot down bomber anyday, any time, any place. but the trick is....finding it.
It's true that bomber will always never been sent to a mission, that there could be fighter jet in range of intercept.
so your thinking taiwan AF can take care china bomer....think again.
when bomber show up, there is no friendly AF around man, otherwise, bomber will not be sent. GOT MY POINT.

I realize that English is not your first language, but I'm getting seriously frustrated with you. You definately need to read my posts more carefully before responding. You seem to think I was refering to Taiwanese fighters shooting down the Chinese bombers, but I was definately not doing so. I was referring to the various SAM anti-aircraft missile systems that Taiwan has. Before you start insulting me for what I post, you'd better make certain that you understand what I just posted in the first place!

 

[chuckieland]

Originally posted by: Aegion

Originally posted by: chuckieland
yo, due
the problem is you don't read the whole story
Taiwan AF won't see any Chinese bomber, why would anybody sent a bomber squardon, when they know there is a fighter jet squardon waiting???????????????
real world doesn't work like that
what your thinking is call Fixed war (like Fixed game)
It's true, that fighter jet will shoot down bomber anyday, any time, any place. but the trick is....finding it.
It's true that bomber will always never been sent to a mission, that there could be fighter jet in range of intercept.
so your thinking taiwan AF can take care china bomer....think again.
when bomber show up, there is no friendly AF around man, otherwise, bomber will not be sent. GOT MY POINT.

I realize that English is not your first language, but I'm getting seriously frustrated with you. You definately need to read my posts more carefully before responding. You seem to think I was refering to Taiwanese fighters shooting down the Chinese bombers, but I was definately not doing so. I was referring to the various SAM anti-aircraft missile systems that Taiwan has. Before you start insulting me for what I post, you'd better make certain that you understand what I just posted in the first place!

yo, wtf man
some logic you have.
if one won't sent a bomber knowing there are fighter jet that can intercept it, what made you think one would sent out bomber knowing there is threat of anti-air missile in range?????????????
can't you make the connection 1+1=2???????
Not to mention those anti-air defence will prob have their radar turn off most of time, therefore useless.
sorry if my example are insulting you, but maybe you should Think about your logic before you make the statement.
Last thing, don't blame on the langague, it's your logic here.

 

[Zephyr106]

Originally posted by: chuckieland

Originally posted by: Aegion

Originally posted by: chuckieland
yo, due
the problem is you don't read the whole story
Taiwan AF won't see any Chinese bomber, why would anybody sent a bomber squardon, when they know there is a fighter jet squardon waiting???????????????
real world doesn't work like that
what your thinking is call Fixed war (like Fixed game)
It's true, that fighter jet will shoot down bomber anyday, any time, any place. but the trick is....finding it.
It's true that bomber will always never been sent to a mission, that there could be fighter jet in range of intercept.
so your thinking taiwan AF can take care china bomer....think again.
when bomber show up, there is no friendly AF around man, otherwise, bomber will not be sent. GOT MY POINT.

I realize that English is not your first language, but I'm getting seriously frustrated with you. You definately need to read my posts more carefully before responding. You seem to think I was refering to Taiwanese fighters shooting down the Chinese bombers, but I was definately not doing so. I was referring to the various SAM anti-aircraft missile systems that Taiwan has. Before you start insulting me for what I post, you'd better make certain that you understand what I just posted in the first place!

yo, wtf man
some logic you have.
if one won't sent a bomber knowing there are fighter jet that can intercept it, what made you think one would sent out bomber knowing there is threat of anti-air missile in range?????????????
can't you make the connection 1+1=2???????
Not to mention those anti-air defence will prob have their radar turn off most of time, therefore useless.
sorry if my example are insulting you, but maybe you should Think about your logic before you make the statement.
Last thing, don't blame on the langague, it's your logic here.

No, what's useless is your lack of logic here....

Not to mention those anti-air defence will prob have their radar turn off most of time, therefore useless.

Ridiculous.... only pathetic third world nations would consider turning off air defense radars, let alone air traffic control radars which can pick up incoming military flights as well. SAM acquisition and guidance radars are not used for air defense early warning, and would be turned on as soon as inbounds are detected.

It's true that bomber will always never been sent to a mission, that there could be fighter jet in range of intercept.

Over generalization. Su-30MKKs are the PLAAF's best attack planes, and are multirole and probably better equipped for air-to-air than their "escort" Su-27s, but they would still have a hard time against AMRAAM and Sky Sword 2 equipped Taiwanese fighters, and Taiwan's SAMs. Any Su-30MKK attack would definately have pure fighter support, but it's not as clear cut as sending in waves to fight matched waves, video game style.

Zephyr

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: chuckieland

yo, wtf man
some logic you have.
if one won't sent a bomber knowing there are fighter jet that can intercept it, what made you think one would sent out bomber knowing there is threat of anti-air missile in range?????????????
can't you make the connection 1+1=2???????
Not to mention those anti-air defence will prob have their radar turn off most of time, therefore useless.
sorry if my example are insulting you, but maybe you should Think about your logic before you make the statement.
Last thing, don't blame on the langague, it's your logic here.

You didn't address that point at all in your previous post, you suggested that I was proposing that Taiwanese Airforce Fighter planes would shoot down the bombers. The obvious question is how is China going to elimate all of Taiwan's aerial defenses, particularly if you don't send out sorties untill the defenses are eliminated? I know that the US has an effective anti-radiation missile, but its not clear to me what weaponry of that type that China currently has deployed. Questions such as what happens if the target's radar is suddenly turned off, and the accuracy of the missile are key to determining its effectiveness. Its also safe to say that most of the older Migs are not equiped with such sophisticated weaponry. (The electronics, or complete lack of them, is going to prevent such an option from being viable.) A key point is that in combination with linked communication systems, another radar can provide the targetting data for the anti-aircraft defense systems. In addition, virtually any radar on Taiwan can be used to detect enemy fighters, this information could be conveyed through Taiwan's military fiberoptic network to the appropriate missile batteries whom could then turn on their radar and target the enemy planes in its area. All the indications I've seen, including the arms sales data I provided earlier in this thread, suggest that Taiwan has a very substancial number of anti-aircraft missile defense systems, and this number is rising all the time.

 

[Ferocious]

Good grief.

Bush would never attack China to defend Taiwan.

Corporate America would never allow him.

 

[maddogchen]

Wow you guys still going at it. Now theres gonna be more trouble with the Taiwan President being shot. Think this would boost his election chances?

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: maddogchen
Wow you guys still going at it. Now theres gonna be more trouble with the Taiwan President being shot. Think this would boost his election chances?

Unless something wacky occurs, such as it turns the President arranged a bogus assasination attempt to boost his election chances, I think it just became guaranteed that he will be re-elected.

 

[maddogchen]

Originally posted by: Aegion

Originally posted by: maddogchen
Wow you guys still going at it. Now theres gonna be more trouble with the Taiwan President being shot. Think this would boost his election chances?

Unless something wacky occurs, such as it turns the President arranged a bogus assasination attempt to boost his election chances, I think it just became guaranteed that he will be re-elected.

Whats your guess on what would happen IF its found that Communist China ordered the hit?
and its a BIG IF, just wondering

 

[Aegion]

Originally posted by: maddogchen

Whats your guess on what would happen IF its found that Communist China ordered the hit?
and its a BIG IF, just wondering

Its a little hard to say for certain. The most drastic Taiwanese response would be to declare independance, but I'm by no means certain it would come to that result.

 

[Zebo]

Originally posted by: Ferocious
Good grief.

Bush would never attack China to defend Taiwan.

Corporate America would never allow him.

:::YAWN:::
Exactly.


While this discussion has been all very interesting it's all moot. Both Taiwan and China have to much to loose for "face". Cooler heads will win out and the $ will win out. China will remain outwardly threatening reunification. Taiwan will continue to threaten independence. Meanwhile the leaders are having cocktails in smoke filled rooms with one another laughing all the way to the bank while building the most powerful economic block in the world.