The Trump deciding factor lies with what happens in 2022. If repubs win the house and senate then there will be no chance of any further Trump-related investigations. Any and every 1/6 investigations will cease. Any criminal activity uncovered during previous 1/6 investigations will be nullified by the new republican congress. And that new 2022 republican congress will open the floodgates making it as easy as possible for Donald Trump to waltz in and take the republicans nomination.
Frankly, I think it a bit perverted to even consider a 2024 Trump candidacy as anything to be viewed as normal. Or, to even be considered. It would in fact be anything but normal. America will have a two-time impeached president running for the highest office. America would have a condemned insurrectionist running for the highest office. Americans would have a candidate who attempted to overthrow a legitimate American presidential election running for the highest office. HOW can the media or the nation take this as a "normal" presidential election process?
Can you imagine a republican nominating process where the only "THE ONLY" candidate.... is.... Donald.... Trump....???
SO what would the RNC do instead of primary debates?
Give Trump an hours time slot to lie about his past achievements? Air Trump rallies during that time slot? Have a host of Trump loyalist filing one by one across the stage in praise of Donald Trump?
Seriously, with no republican challenger to challenge Donald Trump, what would the RNC do instead of primary debates???
And the BIG QUESTION is.... How, and why would voters reward republicans in the 2022 midterms with handing the US house and US senate BACK to the republicans?
WHY DO THAT ????
Republicans refused to vote for the Biden stimulus. Republicans refuse to raise the debit ceiling. Republicans refuse to allow middle class Americans expanded medicare, child-care, pre-K, child tax credits, so WHY would the voters reward republicans for THIS? For doing nothing?
Why would voters do that?