^^^ This. Predicting the future is obviously a dark and uncertain art outside of Marvel movies, or some such, but Nate Silver's 538 is the best and most considered there is, imho, as well. As much as I can, in Nate I trust.
The only site I follow and trust is 538. They are extremely conservative/guarded in their ratings and look at a ridiculous cross section of polls. Throw out the LA times poll (they have always given trump a lead even when he clearly should not have one). 538 gives him a 1/3 chance of winning.That is uncomfortably high for me, but they are also banking on small polling (1+ ) error. Other sites have trump's chances of winning being generally less than 20% and some say essentially zero.
They are actually banking on not only large polling error but a large polling error that is highly correlated between states. If you look at their model Trump's chances are almost entirely driven by that uncertainty. Without it they would have Clinton at 90%+. Other aggregators think they are overestimating uncertainty, which is why her odds are much better there.
I think 538 is a great site and I love how transparent they are, but it seems that no matter the outcome of this election their model will need revision. It's hard for me to believe that in an electorate this polarized that Clinton has really gone from a 90% chance of winning to a 51% chance of losing back to a 90% chance of winning back to a 66% chance. Regardless of who you think will win that's not likely to have actually happened.
He hasn't been allowed back on the boat for several months.
You understand those changes in winning percents come down to low single digit percent changes in polling averages and are based on standard uncertainty given a particular sample size?
A 2% change in the popular vote can change it from 90% to 49%.
Also... guide to 538 stats
He won't say. He just bitches about every program set up to help people in the same boat he's out of. Then he proclaims his support for politicians who will toss him anchors while he drowns.How come? He's a seaman.
He won't say. He just bitches about every program set up to help people in the same boat he's out of. Then he proclaims his support for politicians who will toss him anchors while he drowns.
It was very strange and very, very sad to see him complain about how he couldn't afford health care and then when confronted with the idea that the primary reason was because of the policies of people he voted for he just shut down.
It was very strange and very, very sad to see him complain about how he couldn't afford health care and then when confronted with the idea that the primary reason was because of the policies of people he voted for he just shut down.
Sold my long term capital gain stocks and bought Nov SPY puts to insure the short term ones while I hold. Markets are super complacent, and a Trump win could be like Brexit on steroids. No need to be a hero as the increased probability gets priced in.
I pulled my 401k completely out of the market a month or two back (around 700k). My Roths and my wifes 401k are still in the market. This puts about half of my total retirement savings OFF the market. I am betting on a total market implosion. If the DJIA drops to 9K or so, I could be set for retirement within a year. I have been on the wrong end of every other market swing. That ends for me this year....
I honestly don't mean this in a mean way or anything, but if you've always been wrong about timing the market then maybe it's not for you because it's not your area of expertise? I know I would never try to time the market because even people who do it for a living usually fail.
I honestly don't mean this in a mean way or anything, but if you've always been wrong about timing the market then maybe it's not for you because it's not your area of expertise? I know I would never try to time the market because even people who do it for a living usually fail.
Eski,
Do you believe Clinton will take down Assad after she assumes office? If so, what do you think Russia's response will be? Will Russia's response tend to crater the market or make it go up? Many people think Hillary was just blowing hot air when she spoke of taking down Assad and honestly they could be 100% correct but even if they are.....
......we are due for a bear market after this super long bull market. Look at the pattern for the last 24 years..... it is almost cyclical. 8 year bull/bear/8 year bull/bear/8 year bull/....
The thing that is missing is the bubble. I haven't been able to identify a bubble in the market anywhere and that is worrisome.
What I'm saying is that I have very little confidence in my ability to project the S&P 500 in the short term fashion necessary to time the market. If I DID have that ability (and for that matter, if YOU do) then all you need to do is document that fact ahead of time in a way that can be shown to investors/fund managers and you could quickly become a wealthy man doing it. Sadly, I don't. I doubt you do either.
As I've said before the best thing you can do with your money long term is park it in a low fee index fund and forget it exists.
^^^ This. Predicting the future is obviously a dark and uncertain art outside of Marvel movies, or some such, but Nate Silver's 538 is the best and most considered there is, imho, as well. As much as I can, in Nate I trust.
Car loans, student loans.Eski,
Do you believe Clinton will take down Assad after she assumes office? If so, what do you think Russia's response will be? Will Russia's response tend to crater the market or make it go up? Many people think Hillary was just blowing hot air when she spoke of taking down Assad and honestly they could be 100% correct but even if they are.....
......we are due for a bear market after this super long bull market. Look at the pattern for the last 24 years..... it is almost cyclical. 8 year bull/bear/8 year bull/bear/8 year bull/....
The thing that is missing is the bubble. I haven't been able to identify a bubble in the market anywhere and that is worrisome.
he was WAY off on the Cubs chances tho, something around 26% going into game 6. I trust him too, but that was just a silly number^^^ This. Predicting the future is obviously a dark and uncertain art outside of Marvel movies, or some such, but Nate Silver's 538 is the best and most considered there is, imho, as well. As much as I can, in Nate I trust.
Yea and enjoy that pathetic 5% ROI that I have had. This is my first time trying to time that market. I got out in the 17ks so I AM ALREADY DOWN by a very substantial chunk. Give that I am already down, it is too late to get back in now. At the very least, I have to wait for the mid 17ks again.
its particularly difficult this time around. I suspect theres an awful lot of people lying on polls and we may get some shocking results when voting actually starts.
he was WAY off on the Cubs chances tho, something around 26% going into game 6. I trust him too, but that was just a silly number