Trump and Kim have now shaken hands...breaking

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pauldun170

Diamond Member
Sep 26, 2011
9,141
5,085
136
North Korea's nuclear program is a red herring. It's a farce.

This is all playing out exactly as it is supposed to. China and Russia have been playing the long game and the whole point of all this is to reduce US presence in South Korea, back off the sanctions and basically reduce its influence.

The GOP has been demonizing NK and overstating them as a threat for a long time to justify our posture in the region. Now that China is stepping up their game they will refocus China as the big new red scare.

These talks serve as the jump off point to relax sanctions. Next up is to pull North Korea from the naughty list when it comes finance. That will be followed by a lot of Russian and Chinese joint ventures. Pompeo's talk of throwing money at North Korea is hilarious considering the game being played.

We may also see a shift when it comes to Chinese South Korean relations as well.
 
Nov 30, 2006
15,456
389
121
Because only an idiot throws away his best cards without something concrete in return? One offers a carrot, not throw the whole bunch for nothing.
The reality here is that you don't have a crystal ball and have no clue as to how this is going to go. You have an opinion...nothing more, nothing less. An opinion that I hope is eventually proven wrong...dead wrong.
 

IJTSSG

Golden Member
Aug 12, 2014
1,122
278
136
As expected, the TDS suffering fucktards are out in full force this morning. You losers are as predictable as the sunrise.

Good job!
 

UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
24,918
9,182
136
Every time the US & the ROK stage joint exercises the DPRK has to respond with heightened readiness of their own because they don't trust us. The chances of somebody doing something stupid increase. So I think it's good to not do that as a gesture of goodwill. We can go back to it any time we feel the need.

Greater dialog is also good. Too bad Trump couldn't see it that way with Iran. The way he's handling that doesn't give anybody reason to trust us.

Exactly. I can only speak for myself, but 100% of my criticism of Trump's NK deal has nothing against seeking peace with NK. I'm glad he at least stopped the petty name-calling and ratcheting up the tension. I'm even ok with lending KJU some legitimacy on the world stage thru face to face negotiations.

But I will criticize Trump for throwing out the Iran deal (for the sole purpose of undoing Obama's legacy) and then not being able to get a better deal with NK as promised. Proof is in the pudding. This agreement is all words and no meat...no inspection regimen, nothing. Doesn't get China or SK onboard either...only a bilateral agreement.

But hey, at least you don't have Democrats in Congress planning to undo this agreement on Day 1. That's a nice change from the Iran deal...
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,266
126
The reality here is that you don't have a crystal ball and have no clue as to how this is going to go. You have an opinion...nothing more, nothing less. An opinion that I hope is eventually proven wrong...dead wrong.

I've already said I don't know the future, but I do know the present and I understand games, which this is. The goal is to come out ahead, or at least disengage with an advantage. At this point we have taken a major asset, something deeply desired by Kim off the table.

Now what did we get in return? I mean today because you don't have a crystal ball so I operate on percentages. The odds diminish in every transaction when it costs nothing to get something.

What material thing did we get in exchange for a very real material bargaining chip? I'll tell you what happened. Kim has learned that his opponent does not know how to play The Game, and I suspect that only one of the two leaders knows what that is.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,266
126
As expected, the TDS suffering fucktards are out in full force this morning. You losers are as predictable as the sunrise.

Good job!

From a non-partisan analytical perspective, what do you see that gave us an advantage compared to past negotiations? We have vague promises to do things as before. In return, we gave away a key bargaining chip. "Well Obama..." I am not interested in him, but where we are today.

In looking at the documents presented there is nothing of substance offered by NK. At some point that may change depending on the overall calculus, but for the moment that is where we stand. If you disagree and have tangible, concrete things I fail to see them. They are not to be found in the written word.
 
Nov 30, 2006
15,456
389
121
I've already said I don't know the future, but I do know the present and I understand games, which this is. The goal is to come out ahead, or at least disengage with an advantage. At this point we have taken a major asset, something deeply desired by Kim off the table.

Now what did we get in return? I mean today because you don't have a crystal ball so I operate on percentages. The odds diminish in every transaction when it costs nothing to get something.

What material thing did we get in exchange for a very real material bargaining chip? I'll tell you what happened. Kim has learned that his opponent does not know how to play The Game, and I suspect that only one of the two leaders knows what that is.
If it doesn't work out we can always resume military exercises. I don't understand why giving this up is such a big deal for you....especially when the upside is so crazy good.

This isn't rocket science...it's Negotiations 101.

https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/six-ways-to-build-trust-in-negotiations
Six Ways to Build Trust in Negotiations
4. Make unilateral concessions
Negotiations with strangers and enemies tend to be calculative, with both parties carefully measuring what they're gaining with each concession made by the other side. By contrast, negotiations based on long-term relationships are usually less focused on tallying up wins and losses. A carefully crafted unilateral concession can work wonders for trust, for it conveys to the other party that you consider the relationship to be a friendly one, with the potential for mutual gain and trust over time.

A true unilateral concession requires no commitment or concession from the other side. Such concessions must come at little cost or risk to the provider, but be of high benefit to the recipient. In addition to establishing trust, carefully crafted unilateral concessions also demonstrate your competence by portraying you as someone who understands what the other side values.
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,625
28,756
136
As expected, the TDS suffering fucktards are out in full force this morning. You losers are as predictable as the sunrise.

Good job!
I'm sure the family of Otto Warmbier appreciate people speaking the truth about what really happened as opposed to any Trump induced victory haze you choose to believe.

Did you know they have great beaches in North Korea? Glad Trump can focus.
 

Thebobo

Lifer
Jun 19, 2006
18,574
7,671
136
If it doesn't work out we can always resume military exercises. I don't understand why giving this up is such a big deal for you....especially when the upside is so crazy good.

This isn't rocket science...it's Negotiations 101.

https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/six-ways-to-build-trust-in-negotiations
Six Ways to Build Trust in Negotiations
4. Make unilateral concessions
Negotiations with strangers and enemies tend to be calculative, with both parties carefully measuring what they're gaining with each concession made by the other side. By contrast, negotiations based on long-term relationships are usually less focused on tallying up wins and losses. A carefully crafted unilateral concession can work wonders for trust, for it conveys to the other party that you consider the relationship to be a friendly one, with the potential for mutual gain and trust over time.

A true unilateral concession requires no commitment or concession from the other side. Such concessions must come at little cost or risk to the provider, but be of high benefit to the recipient. In addition to establishing trust, carefully crafted unilateral concessions also demonstrate your competence by portraying you as someone who understands what the other side values.

Put Obama in that very same place and you would find some text to say exactly the opposite.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
If it doesn't work out we can always resume military exercises. I don't understand why giving this up is such a big deal for you....especially when the upside is so crazy good.

This isn't rocket science...it's Negotiations 101.

https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/six-ways-to-build-trust-in-negotiations
Six Ways to Build Trust in Negotiations
4. Make unilateral concessions
Negotiations with strangers and enemies tend to be calculative, with both parties carefully measuring what they're gaining with each concession made by the other side. By contrast, negotiations based on long-term relationships are usually less focused on tallying up wins and losses. A carefully crafted unilateral concession can work wonders for trust, for it conveys to the other party that you consider the relationship to be a friendly one, with the potential for mutual gain and trust over time.

A true unilateral concession requires no commitment or concession from the other side. Such concessions must come at little cost or risk to the provider, but be of high benefit to the recipient. In addition to establishing trust, carefully crafted unilateral concessions also demonstrate your competence by portraying you as someone who understands what the other side values.

I agree. Too bad Trump took exactly the opposite tack with the G7 & Iran. There he's using the "In yo' face, biatches!" negotiating tactic.

At the end of the day our relationship with them will be of much greater importance than with the DPRK.
 

IJTSSG

Golden Member
Aug 12, 2014
1,122
278
136
If Obama would've done this you hyper-partisan fools would've figured out a way to have been on the tarmac at Andrews with another Nobel.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,266
126
If it doesn't work out we can always resume military exercises. I don't understand why giving this up is such a big deal for you....especially when the upside is so crazy good.

This isn't rocket science...it's Negotiations 101.

https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/six-ways-to-build-trust-in-negotiations
Six Ways to Build Trust in Negotiations
4. Make unilateral concessions
Negotiations with strangers and enemies tend to be calculative, with both parties carefully measuring what they're gaining with each concession made by the other side. By contrast, negotiations based on long-term relationships are usually less focused on tallying up wins and losses. A carefully crafted unilateral concession can work wonders for trust, for it conveys to the other party that you consider the relationship to be a friendly one, with the potential for mutual gain and trust over time.

A true unilateral concession requires no commitment or concession from the other side. Such concessions must come at little cost or risk to the provider, but be of high benefit to the recipient. In addition to establishing trust, carefully crafted unilateral concessions also demonstrate your competence by portraying you as someone who understands what the other side values.

So your argument is that we can trust Kim. Well maybe that is true, but Negotiations 102 requires that one take count of assets, and which ones to play, in what order, and when to change tactics.

What you've cited merely defines what terms are and the basis for use. What it also says is "little or no risk to the provider". That requires an evaluation of what "it" is. In this case we're not looking at military exercises as such, but a pearl of great price. The problem is that there aren't many of those. It would have been better to offer something which does not deplete our diplomatic arsenal so quickly. I suggest that increasing some level of trade regarding specific items between SK and NK (Trump did let Moon in all this and has his consent, right?) which shows good faith, potentially increases the standard of living in NK and for which Kim can take credit. It would be meaningful and have a positive impact without sacrificing one of the most important things Kim craves immediately.

No, this just won't do.
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
27,528
26,586
136
Reactions: DarthKyrie

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,266
126
Why didn't Trump discuss with South Korea his intent to give up joint exercises? One would think this would be something critical to discuss with an ally before making the concession unilaterally.

"President Trump’s pledge on Tuesday to cancel military exercises on the Korean Peninsula surprised not only allies in South Korea but also the Pentagon."

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/12/world/asia/trump-military-exercises-north-south-korea.html

The Zeroth Law of Trump, or "It's all about me". The idea of consultation is alien to Trump
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,686
126
Why didn't Trump discuss with South Korea his intent to give up joint exercises? One would think this would be something critical to discuss with an ally before making the concession unilaterally.

"President Trump’s pledge on Tuesday to cancel military exercises on the Korean Peninsula surprised not only allies in South Korea but also the Pentagon."

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/12/world/asia/trump-military-exercises-north-south-korea.html

https://www.voanews.com/a/south-koreans-hopeful-peace-will-prevail-trump-kim-summit/4433140.html

No one in South Korea seems to give a shit about military exercises.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
So your argument is that we can trust Kim. Well maybe that is true, but Negotiations 102 requires that one take count of assets, and which ones to play, in what order, and when to change tactics.

What you've cited merely defines what terms are and the basis for use. What it also says is "little or no risk to the provider". That requires an evaluation of what "it" is. In this case we're not looking at military exercises as such, but a pearl of great price. The problem is that there aren't many of those. It would have been better to offer something which does not deplete our diplomatic arsenal so quickly. I suggest that increasing some level of trade regarding specific items between SK and NK (Trump did let Moon in all this and has his consent, right?) which shows good faith, potentially increases the standard of living in NK and for which Kim can take credit. It would be meaningful and have a positive impact without sacrificing one of the most important things Kim craves immediately.

No, this just won't do.

What part of "We can resume joint exercises at any time" do you fail to comprehend?

Doing so would be a dramatic statement of disapproval of developments in the DPRK.

The whole episode here is highly contrived on the part of Trump, a faux crisis with a faux resolution, at least so far. The notion that the DPRK poses a threat to this country rather than to the ROK is absurd from the get-go.

I can't even imagine what the ROK govt thinks about the way Trump is dissing them.
 
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