Trump Approval Rating Watch thread.

[vi edit]

Its been a while dear readers but I'm sad to report that Trump's approval rating has fallen yet again after a brief spike while he played army. It is now back down to 36 percent. Dear readers as we all know this is a sad moment in American history. But Hopefully with the courage of the American people we, but not Trump, shall overcome! /BS off, good job Trump!

The Hill

"The survey of registered voters found that 36 percent say they approve of Trump's job performance, compared to 58 percent who disapprove. Trump's approval has fallen from the 40 percent recorded in the same poll released in mid-April.

"There is no way to spin or sugarcoat these sagging numbers," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "[These] are red flags that the administration simply can't brush away.""

And here is the key part of that article:

"According to Quinnipiac's poll, Trump's biggest drop in support this month was from white voters who didn't go to college. Just 47 percent now approve of Trump's administration, compared with 57 percent in April."

His base is starting to erode.

 

[FIVR]

Trump only needs ~30% approval to continue to stymie all his various investigations and scandals, and GFL getting him anywhere near that number. He will probably hover between 35-40% for the foreseeable future.

What people aren't realizing about the 2018 and especially 2020 elections is that the Russians will help out and Trump stooges will cook the election numbers like they do for any other dictator. Trump will finally get his "landslide" victory because he will just make up the numbers. So these approval ratings really mean nothing until it gets to the point where there is real unrest (economic impact).

 

[fskimospy]

Trump only needs ~30% approval to continue to stymie all his various investigations and scandals, and GFL getting him anywhere near that number. He will probably hover between 35-40% for the foreseeable future.

What people aren't realizing about the 2018 and especially 2020 elections is that the Russians will help out and Trump stooges will cook the election numbers like they do for any other dictator. Trump will finally get his "landslide" victory because he will just make up the numbers. So these approval ratings really mean nothing until it gets to the point where there is real unrest (economic impact).

Can you explain the mechanism by which the president would cook the election numbers? That would be extremely difficult.

 

[vi edit]

Trump only needs ~30% approval to continue to stymie all his various investigations and scandals, and GFL getting him anywhere near that number. He will probably hover between 35-40% for the foreseeable future.

What people aren't realizing about the 2018 and especially 2020 elections is that the Russians will help out and Trump stooges will cook the election numbers like they do for any other dictator. Trump will finally get his "landslide" victory because he will just make up the numbers. So these approval ratings really mean nothing until it gets to the point where there is real unrest (economic impact).

Oh that's coming soon. Tourism is down BIGLY. We haven't heard shit for new jobs since...well...that half cooked carrier deal last year that was more of a pre-planned Pence deal than anything. Jobs numbers coming in lately were not great. They have taken steps to make housing more expensive and want to increase the Fed rate which will make money more expensive and car sales that are already tanking will continue to plummet. And that's all before we see what happens with the Obama care repeal and what that does for the healthcare industry and jobs and insurance coverage associated with that abomination of a bill. SOO MUCH WINNING!!!!!

 

[Thebobo]

Oh that's coming soon. Tourism is down BIGLY. We haven't heard shit for new jobs since...well...that half cooked carrier deal last year that was more of a pre-planned Pence deal than anything. Jobs numbers coming in lately were not great. They have taken steps to make housing more expensive and want to increase the Fed rate which will make money more expensive and car sales that are already tanking will continue to plummet. And that's all before we see what happens with the Obama care repeal and what that does for the healthcare industry and jobs and insurance coverage associated with that abomination of a bill. SOO MUCH WINNING!!!!!

Are we winning so much that we are tired of winning yet?

 

[Blackjack200]

"There is no way to spin or sugarcoat these sagging numbers," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "[These] are red flags that the administration simply can't brush away.""

AHHHHH HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.

Seriously though, I wonder if it actually did reach 2:1 disapprove vs. approve (which I'm not sure it ever would) if that would be some kind of inflection point.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Most recent collection and median of herr drumpfs approval rating

 

[alien42]

Most recent collection and median of herr drumpfs approval rating

538 has their own formula for averaging polls and they are currently at 52.8% by 41.3%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

 

[Pens1566]

And it'll be lower in the next one as this one doesn't have all the latest news baked in.

 

[FIVR]

Can you explain the mechanism by which the president would cook the election numbers? That would be extremely difficult.

How does Bashar al-Assad or Erdogan or any other dictator get 90% in every election? I assume the mechanism will be similar here as it is in those countries. Various stooges and government officials stuff the ballots and intimidate the opposition.


Michael Hayden had an interesting quote this morning about how thin the veneer of 1st world civilization is and how easily it can be removed. He described what happened to Sarajevo and said it could happen here too. I agree.

 

[Aharami]

How does Bashar al-Assad or Erdogan or any other dictator get 90% in every election? I assume the mechanism will be similar here as it is in those countries. Various stooges and government officials stuff the ballots and intimidate the opposition.


Michael Hayden had an interesting quote this morning about how thin the veneer of 1st world civilization is and how easily it can be removed. He described what happened to Sarajevo and said it could happen here too. I agree.

The only way to cook an election would be by large scale tampering of voting machines.

 

[fskimospy]

How does Bashar al-Assad or Erdogan or any other dictator get 90% in every election? I assume the mechanism will be similar here as it is in those countries. Various stooges and government officials stuff the ballots and intimidate the opposition.

Stuffing ballots would be extremely difficult given the decentralized nature of our electoral system and the transparency requirements for vote totals. If you're stuffing ballots in individual ballot boxes to the extent you need to in a presidential election you're going to end up with easily detected discrepancies that will give up the game. If you're changing vote totals at higher levels you're going to run into audit problems as compared to the precinct reports.

Trump can surely employ the various voter suppression tactics that Republicans already employ and he could probably add a level of intimidation to try and keep opponents away from the polls, but outright rigging a presidential election like some third world dictator would be incredibly hard here. Until you've got a plausible mechanism for doing that it's not a very compelling idea.

Michael Hayden had an interesting quote this morning about how thin the veneer of 1st world civilization is and how easily it can be removed. He described what happened to Sarajevo and said it could happen here too. I agree.

I agree that people overestimate the strength of US democracy and it's currently under attack. That's a different discussion entirely though.

 

[hal2kilo]

Trump only needs ~30% approval to continue to stymie all his various investigations and scandals, and GFL getting him anywhere near that number. He will probably hover between 35-40% for the foreseeable future.

What people aren't realizing about the 2018 and especially 2020 elections is that the Russians will help out and Trump stooges will cook the election numbers like they do for any other dictator. Trump will finally get his "landslide" victory because he will just make up the numbers. So these approval ratings really mean nothing until it gets to the point where there is real unrest (economic impact).

Fortunately, and unfortunately, elections are run at the state level. Not all states use electronic voting machines (at the actual poles). I would be vary difficult for the Russians to systematically affect the vote counts. Their specialty is fake news and busting into campaign servers..

 

[Blackjack200]

Here's the kind of fraud that our elections are vulnerable to:
https://www.thenation.com/article/w...w-suppressed-200000-votes-trump-won-by-23000/

Voter suppression, voter roll purges, voter ID laws (and obstructing access to those IDs), felony disenfranchisement, getting rid of early voting and voting by mail, etc.

They don't stuff the ballot box, they make sure that the people that aren't going to vote for them don't get to vote at all.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

How does Bashar al-Assad or Erdogan or any other dictator get 90% in every election? I assume the mechanism will be similar here as it is in those countries. Various stooges and government officials stuff the ballots and intimidate the opposition.

Since the systems are completely different, the countries unalike and the very open process is monitored by people who are not in fear, the means you describe cannot be applied.

America is in trouble and we may be manipulated by clever means but outright physical tampering is not happening, unless superior aliens are using a superior technology we haven't imagined. I think that about as likely as NK having a vast hidden submarine fleet which roams the seas undetected with antimatter missiles in the gigaton range.

 

[alien42]

538 has their own formula for averaging polls and they are currently at 52.8% by 41.3%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

538s average now at 53.6% disapproval by 40.5% approval.

just a small update post Comey firing week, pre classified info spilled to the Russians in the Oval Office week. i fully expect that average to drop below 40% soon and to never go above 40% again.

 

[alien42]

538s average now at 53.6% disapproval by 40.5% approval.

just a small update post Comey firing week, pre classified info spilled to the Russians in the Oval Office week. i fully expect that average to drop below 40% soon and to never go above 40% again.

and that drop below 40% just happened...

54.1% disapproval and 39.9% approval

just how low will it go by weeks end?

 

[IronWing]

Trump is a 1%er for sure!

 

[Puffnstuff]

Have you noticed how he's now interviewing with his Fox mouthpiece Judge Jeanine? Every time I watch him now I think about that SNL skit where they say he sits on every seat like its a toilet and I ROFL because its true. If you want to skip to that part go to 4:08.

 

[woolfe9998]

and that drop below 40% just happened...

54.1% disapproval and 39.9% approval

just how low will it go by weeks end?

Yes, and yesterday's and today's revelations aren't really priced into that number. Curious to see how low it goes by next week.

 

[First]

More terrible polling for Trump/Repubs released today;

Generic Congressional Ballot 2018:
PPP: +11 - Dems 49%, Repubs 38%

Affordable Care Act Approval:
PPP: +7 - PRO 44%, AGAINST 37%

Not a single negative ACA in the RCP average for 2+ months now.

 

[jman19]

More terrible polling for Trump/Repubs released today;

Generic Congressional Ballot 2018:
PPP: +11 - Dems 49%, Repubs 38%

Affordable Care Act Approval:
PPP: +7 - PRO 44%, AGAINST 37%

Not a single negative ACA in the RCP average for 2+ months now.

Polls are fake remember?

 

[woolfe9998]

More terrible polling for Trump/Repubs released today;

Generic Congressional Ballot 2018:
PPP: +11 - Dems 49%, Repubs 38%

Affordable Care Act Approval:
PPP: +7 - PRO 44%, AGAINST 37%

Not a single negative ACA in the RCP average for 2+ months now.

Wow on that first one. The generic balloting is considered more predictive than presidential approval for midterms. An 8+ point lead generally denotes an expected landslide, like 30+ seats. If that PPP poll is anywhere near accurate, the dems are well positioned right now. But it looks like a high outlier, and of course a lot can happen between now and then.

 

[First]

Wow on that first one. The generic balloting is considered more predictive than presidential approval for midterms. An 8+ point lead generally denotes an expected landslide, like 30+ seats. If that PPP poll is anywhere near accurate, the dems are well positioned right now. But it looks like a high outlier, and of course a lot can happen between now and then.

Yeah for sure an outlier, but the average is still +7 for Dems. I don't see the Repubs keeping the House at this point without major changes in the next 18 months.

 

[theeedude]

And here is the key part of that article:

"According to Quinnipiac's poll, Trump's biggest drop in support this month was from white voters who didn't go to college. Just 47 percent now approve of Trump's administration, compared with 57 percent in April."

His base is starting to erode.

Does he still love the uneducated?