News Trump: Mar-a-Lago just raided by FBI

[hal2kilo]

I'm not the only one who believes it may prove next to impossible to get Trump behind bars. I think a couple of Trump insiders need to be turned.

But many legal folks who want to discuss Trump appear in feature articles on Websites that have erected pay walls. Personally, I am hoping enough calm and measured Democrats simply oppose Trump's return to the Oval Office through their votes.

To me, this obsession over Trump is ridiculous. Some of you become so enraged you act as if you'd murder billions to get your way. Why don't folks use some that rage to fight the Russians? Or world hunger? Or do what the most kind hearted POTUS did - spend time building homes for those who need one.

The time to stop Trump was in 2016. If you didn't vote for Hillary back then, then you bear some responsibility for this guy because it's not like you weren't warned.

Elections have consequences.

George Conway disagrees with your accesment.
Trump "will be convicted of multiple felonies": George Conway on the bumpy road ahead | Salon.com

In this wide-ranging conversation, Conway explains his belief that Donald Trump may finally be prosecuted, convicted and perhaps even imprisoned for violations of the Espionage Act and related crimes. Contrary to the opinions of other legal experts and political observers, Conway believes that Trump's ego will never permit him to admit guilt as part of a plea bargain agreement. He warns, however, that as Trump faces more pressure from the Department of Justice and other investigations into his obvious criminal wrongdoing, he may order his followers to unleash violence and destruction.
If America were actually healthy, then Trump would be gone, a non-factor. In all likelihood, I believe that Trump gets the Republican nomination in 2024, unless he goes to prison before then. If Trump is convicted or it looks like he is going to be, he will try to take down as many people as possible with him. That's what malignant narcissists do.

There are all these pronouncements from pundits that Trump is done for and everything is going to be OK. That's wishful thinking. Trumpism and neofascism cannot just be wished away.

 

[fskimospy]

I don't believe anything will happen to Trump. Not because he's Trump, but he is the head (in all ways that matter) of the GOP (aka the Trump party). At a certain point, enforcing rules depends on willingness to follow them. Small example, McConnell stalling to put in Obama's choice of Supreme Court justice, which was his job (to timely replace the justice). He simply said, with no attempt at hiding, that he wasn't going to do it. At that point, the rules and norms were out the window. There was no way to compel him to do his job, sure he shit all over tradition and norms but nobody on the GOP gave a crap because it was helping their team.

Some people are above the law. Trump is one of them. He even said he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and nothing would happen to him, and he's 100% right.

Caveat: if Trump suddenly gets replaced in the hearts and minds of GOP supporters--and this could easily happen, the dude is getting old, and I watched it happen when he himself took the hearts and minds from all the Jeb/Cruz supporters--then sure he could face consequences. But not as long as he's head of the Trump party.

And I also agreed that the idiots who said "Bernie or bust, let it all bern down" had a lot to do with Trump coming to power. I know a number of people like that. Gee, instead of burning down and starting over like the garden of eden, the party most opposed to your principles took over. Who knew!? Bunch of children.

So to be clear here who is saying 'no' to prosecuting Trump so that it won't happen?

 

[fskimospy]

George Conway disagrees with your accesment.
Trump "will be convicted of multiple felonies": George Conway on the bumpy road ahead | Salon.com

In this wide-ranging conversation, Conway explains his belief that Donald Trump may finally be prosecuted, convicted and perhaps even imprisoned for violations of the Espionage Act and related crimes. Contrary to the opinions of other legal experts and political observers, Conway believes that Trump's ego will never permit him to admit guilt as part of a plea bargain agreement. He warns, however, that as Trump faces more pressure from the Department of Justice and other investigations into his obvious criminal wrongdoing, he may order his followers to unleash violence and destruction.
If America were actually healthy, then Trump would be gone, a non-factor. In all likelihood, I believe that Trump gets the Republican nomination in 2024, unless he goes to prison before then. If Trump is convicted or it looks like he is going to be, he will try to take down as many people as possible with him. That's what malignant narcissists do.

There are all these pronouncements from pundits that Trump is done for and everything is going to be OK. That's wishful thinking. Trumpism and neofascism cannot just be wished away.

I have been saying this since Trump lost - he will be indicted. The reasons for this are the same they have always been, essentially that he's a giant criminal, everyone knows it, and now it is politically convenient for the people in power to prosecute him. The only way they wouldn't is if they found they couldn't make a case and this document thing handed one to them on a silver platter. Trump will be indicted.

 

[JTsyo]

I firmly believe anything the FPOTUS has said that is remotely stupid is likely him misunderstanding what someone told him. His comments from April 2020 about injecting disinfectant.

But I always wonder what the core comment was that he has misinterpreted. Same with this. He heard somebody say something about Presidents being able to declassify documents and didn't understand their comment at all.

It's no mystery. It was the person who talked prior to him about how to disinfect surfaces. He heard about what worked for surfaces and tried to guess how it could be used on people.

 

[soundforbjt]

It's no mystery. It was the person who talked prior to him about how to disinfect surfaces. He heard about what worked for surfaces and tried to guess how it could be used on people.

People on the WH staff called trump a sophisticated parrot.

 

[Pens1566]

I trust George Conway about as far as I can throw him ...

 

[Fenixgoon]

Oh look, Trump failed to return presidential records for-fucking-ever-ago

National Archives alerted lawyers for Trump about missing letters with North Korean leader in May 2021, records show | CNN Politics

The National Archives alerted lawyers for former President Donald Trump in May 2021 that Trump's letters with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un -- and two dozen boxes of records -- were missing, according to new correspondence the Archives released on Monday.

www.cnn.com

 

[ImpulsE69]

I have been saying this since Trump lost - he will be indicted. The reasons for this are the same they have always been, essentially that he's a giant criminal, everyone knows it, and now it is politically convenient for the people in power to prosecute him. The only way they wouldn't is if they found they couldn't make a case and this document thing handed one to them on a silver platter. Trump will be indicted.

I care about indictments as much as impeachments. If nothing meaningful is done from the outcome, it's a waste of time and taxpayers money. An indictment isn't going to change his followers minds, regardless what comes out of it. I want cold hard punishment. Something he can't just lietalk his way out of.

 

[Lezunto]

Thank you, Smogzinn. You nailed it perfectly.

At this point, our politics are the result of overzealous political pundits, runaway egos, fascination with wealth and idolization of the famous. Some individuals simply believe what they think, say and type is akin to a thunderous voice from Mount Sinai.

Once an individual appears wedded to authoring rancid personal insults with every comment, I tune out. And if they continue, I search for the ignore button.

I simply do not believe Trump will ever be sentenced to prison, although he likely committed several crimes.

The uncontrollable rage of some who disagree with that statement is beyond crazy. But in today's world of cheap gratification, thoughtless bullying and unmitigated fuckery, it's perfectly acceptable.

 

[fskimospy]

Thank you, Smogzinn. You nailed it perfectly.

At this point, our politics are the result of overzealous political pundits, runaway egos, fascination with wealth and idolization of the famous. Some individuals simply believe what they think, say and type is akin to a thunderous voice from Mount Sinai.

Once an individual appears wedded to authoring rancid personal insults with every comment, I tune out. And if they continue, I search for the ignore button.

I simply do not believe Trump will ever be sentenced to prison, although he likely committed several crimes.

The uncontrollable rage of some who disagree with that statement is beyond crazy. But in today's world of cheap gratification, thoughtless bullying and unmitigated fuckery, it's perfectly acceptable.

Whose uncontrollable rage, specifically?

 

[BlueWeasel]

People on the WH staff called trump a sophisticated parrot.

Frankly, that's an insult to actual parrots.

 

[woolfe9998]

This is another bad fact for Trump in this records case.

Lawyer refused Trump instruction to tell Archives all records had been returned | CNN Politics

Soon after former President Donald Trump returned 15 boxes of presidential records to the National Archives and Records Administration earlier this year, he instructed one of his lawyers to tell the agency that all of the materials the Archives had requested had been returned from his Mar-a-Lago...

www.cnn.com

Former Trump attorney who had been in charge of dealing with NARA over the documents was told directly by Trump to inform NARA that all documents had been returned, but refused to do so. Trump then fires him, then personally "dictated a statement to aides in February declaring that all records had been returned to NARA...."

So much for Trump passing that off as attorney error.

Will depend on whether they can get admissible testimony on this, however.

 

[pmv]

Frankly, that's an insult to actual parrots.

If that was my parrot I'd take it back to the shop and demand a refund.

 

[Fenixgoon]

This is another bad fact for Trump in this records case.

Lawyer refused Trump instruction to tell Archives all records had been returned | CNN Politics

Soon after former President Donald Trump returned 15 boxes of presidential records to the National Archives and Records Administration earlier this year, he instructed one of his lawyers to tell the agency that all of the materials the Archives had requested had been returned from his Mar-a-Lago...

www.cnn.com

Former Trump attorney who had been in charge of dealing with NARA over the documents was told directly by Trump to inform NARA that all documents had been returned, but refused to do so. Trump then fires him, then personally "dictated a statement to aides in February declaring that all records had been returned to NARA...."

So much for Trump passing that off as attorney error.

Will depend on whether they can get admissible testimony on this, however.

Was just about to post this. Trump is his own worst enemy, legally speaking, in this case

 

[ImpulsE69]

This isn't as much of a smoking gun as you'd hope. For one thing the lawyer was working remotely and never saw the docs to know one way or the other. Secondly, the article is all hearsay. He didn't comment on the actual question at hand.

Yes, I believe this happened. Will he flip on Trump under oath? Most likely not, it would ruin his career.

 

[fskimospy]

This isn't as much of a smoking gun as you'd hope. For one thing the lawyer was working remotely and never saw the docs to know one way or the other. Secondly, the article is all hearsay. He didn't comment on the actual question at hand.

Yes, I believe this happened. Will he flip on Trump under oath? Most likely not, it would ruin his career.

It’s hard for me to understand why you would say the article is hearsay?

 

[fskimospy]

This is a smoking gun if you can get the people Trump told to testify that he told them to tell the archives they sent over everything.

Even if you can’t though there are about three other smoking guns sitting around so it’s not like it matters that much. The archives explicitly told Trump he had documents he had to return and he didn’t. The defense that he thought he had would rely on the idea that his lawyers hid these communications from him will not fly.

Like I said, any objective person looking at this would conclude it is highly likely Trump will be indicted. The case is a slam dunk.

 

[soundforbjt]

This is a smoking gun if you can get the people Trump told to testify that he told them to tell the archives they sent over everything.

Even if you can’t though there are about three other smoking guns sitting around so it’s not like it matters that much. The archives explicitly told Trump he had documents he had to return and he didn’t. The defense that he thought he had would rely on the idea that his lawyers hid these communications from him will not fly.

Like I said, any objective person looking at this would conclude it is highly likely Trump will be indicted. The case is a slam dunk.

He may get indicted but I have serious doubts he’ll face any real punishment.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

This is a smoking gun if you can get the people Trump told to testify that he told them to tell the archives they sent over everything.

Even if you can’t though there are about three other smoking guns sitting around so it’s not like it matters that much. The archives explicitly told Trump he had documents he had to return and he didn’t. The defense that he thought he had would rely on the idea that his lawyers hid these communications from him will not fly.

Like I said, any objective person looking at this would conclude it is highly likely Trump will be indicted. The case is a slam dunk.

However the Judge….

 

[fskimospy]

However the Judge….

What judge?

 

[SMOGZINN]

Like I said, any objective person looking at this would conclude it is highly likely Trump will be indicted. The case is a slam dunk.

They have enough to indict him without a doubt, but there is a second calculation that has to be done by the prosecutors. Can they successfully convict him?
My guess is that no matter how damning the evidence they will not be able to and they know it. He is simply too polarizing. There will be someone on the jury that will refuse to call guilty.
So, the calculus might fall into the 'don't indict if you can't convict' and instead just keep the threat of an indictment over his head as long as possible.

 

[fskimospy]

They have enough to indict him without a doubt, but there is a second calculation that has to be done by the prosecutors. Can they successfully convict him?

Yes, easily.

My guess is that no matter how damning the evidence they will not be able to and they know it. He is simply too polarizing. There will be someone on the jury that will refuse to call guilty.
So, the calculus might fall into the 'don't indict if you can't convict' and instead just keep the threat of an indictment over his head as long as possible.

So why didn't this happen with any of Trump's associates? Trump will be indicted and will most likely face a jury in DC, where he won 5.4% of the vote. Is the idea that Trump's lawyers will not only be able to find Trump voters in that 5.4% but also find ones so obstinate they will refuse to convict on anything AND that prosecutors won't challenge them?

I remember how the enlightened take a year ago or so was 'Trump will never be indicted and will get away with everything'. As that has turned out to be pretty obviously wrong the new enlightened take is that he can never be convicted. I suspect that will be proven similarly wrong. The only way Trump escapes is if he's able to delay the trial long enough until he dies or is pardoned. Even then he's in deep shit from state prosecutions that he can't be pardoned for. (at least not by the governor)

 

[Fanatical Meat]

What judge?

Are you saying there would be a different Judge?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aileen_Cannon

 

[SMOGZINN]

So why didn't this happen with any of Trump's associates?

Because Trump's associates are not Trump and everyone knows that they are the designated scape goats.

Is the idea that Trump's lawyers will not only be able to find Trump voters in that 5.4% but also find ones so obstinate they will refuse to convict on anything AND that prosecutors won't challenge them?

Yes, and with ease. They will probably find several, likely assisted by the judge.

I remember how the enlightened take a year ago or so was 'Trump will never be indicted and will get away with everything'. As that has turned out to be pretty obviously wrong the new enlightened take is that he can never be convicted. I suspect that will be proven similarly wrong. The only way Trump escapes is if he's able to delay the trial long enough until he dies or is pardoned. Even then he's in deep shit from state prosecutions that he can't be pardoned for. (at least not by the governor)

Nope, the safe money is still on the same idea. Trump will not be indicted because it is almost certainly more trouble then it is worth to do so (to the politicians that make these decisions), mostly because the odds of getting a conviction is so unsure. You don't start the fight if you are not sure you can finish it.

 

[fskimospy]

Are you saying there would be a different Judge?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aileen_Cannon

Yes. The DOJ has a choice of where to indict Trump and they will indict him in DC as that's where the crime took place, so Cannon would not be allowed to preside. (the crime being the unauthorized removal of documents from the White House)

Trump will try to get the trial moved to Cannon's court but that will almost certainly fail.