Before everyone does a victory lap, and yes we need to see the charges first...what are the odds a jury unanimously finds him guilty that holds up on appeal?
I think the indictments are just starting and honestly I bet you he doesn’t even end up being the nominee because Republicans don’t want to lose again.
Republicans are mad about the indictment now because they don’t think the law should apply to them but once they’ve had a minute to think about if they really want a guy with a history of losing elections now under dozens of indictments then they may very well reconsider.
Yeah but his cult only comprises about 30% of republicans. I think most republicans like Trump just fine but the number one reason given by republicans who don’t support him is that they think he will lose. I think going forward you’re going to see people with that objection grow.Your conferring a lot rationality to Trump's base. I agree Republicans should be thinking on those lines. I don't think Trump's cult will though.
Yeah but his cult only comprises about 30% of republicans. I think most republicans like Trump just fine but the number one reason given by republicans who don’t support him is that they think he will lose. I think going forward you’re going to see people with that objection grow.
Yeah but his cult only comprises about 30% of republicans. I think most republicans like Trump just fine but the number one reason given by republicans who don’t support him is that they think he will lose. I think going forward you’re going to see people with that objection grow.
Watch the last gasp of his defense team be a mistrial based on preferential treatment.View attachment 78894
This is what I wondered about, and it shows that he's obviously being given very preferential treatment, and being handled with kid gloves even at the state level in NY.
Shouldn’t his polling in the primary be higher then?I put it at closer to 50-70% of republicans being cultists. To me, the surest indication is polling regarding the 2020 election. Only a Trump cultist would actually believe that nonsense.
To me, since the 2016 election, the reason that all Republicans have stuck with Trump, officials and otherwise, is the fact he won. Nothing else mattered to them. His callousness, his depravity, treasonous actions, anti-democratic attitude, the impeachments, refusal to accept the outcome of the 2020 election, puerile onslaughts against any antagonists ... didn't matter if they thought they could ride his coattails to victory in elections. Now, if they have doubts he can carry them away from defeat, they will look for a way to jump from the Trump Train.Yeah but his cult only comprises about 30% of republicans. I think most republicans like Trump just fine but the number one reason given by republicans who don’t support him is that they think he will lose. I think going forward you’re going to see people with that objection grow.
They are kind of in a bad way. If they don't nominate him will he run as an independent? People here seem to think so. That in itself would seem to doom Republican hopes to win the White House in 2024.Shouldn’t his polling in the primary be higher then?
To be clear I know the overwhelming majority of republicans would vote for him if he were the nominee, I just don’t put the number who are ride or die Trumpkins nearly that high. They want to win and they are afraid he’s going to lose again.
Before everyone does a victory lap, and yes we need to see the charges first...what are the odds a jury unanimously finds him guilty that holds up on appeal?
Shouldn’t his polling in the primary be higher then?
To be clear I know the overwhelming majority of republicans would vote for him if he were the nominee, I just don’t put the number who are ride or die Trumpkins nearly that high. They want to win and they are afraid he’s going to lose again.
Republicans: ‘prosecutors need to enforce the law!Law and Order Republicans calling for their law and their order over you.
I feel that, but if 70% are cultists he should be over 70%.Latest poll from Fox News, whose polling is generally solid, puts him at 54%, with DeSantis at 24%. That's over 50 and is a 30 point lead.
Maybe if he's convicted or fighting multiple indictments during election season that will move the needle. It's going to have to move a lot. We'll see.
I feel that, but if 70% are cultists he should be over 70%.
Primary polling is pretty pointless at this point anyway though. For example look at who was in the lead in March of 2015.
If he were at 100% I would still say these polls don’t mean much. It’s just way too far away and nobody is really paying attention so it’s basically a name recognition game right now.Primary polling is limited in its usefulness at this stage, but a 30 point lead is tough to overcome even with ~19 months to do it. If it was a 10 point lead I'd say its meaningless, but not a 30 point lead.
Right now Trump is the overwelming favorite to win their primary. Maybe it changes somewhat with multiple indictments, but I don't think he loses the primary unless he's physically in jail during the primary season.
I do, however, think any conviction will hurt him in the general election. He'll likely lose enough non-cultist republican voters to make it impossible to beat Biden.
Does anyone else think that with 30+ charges that it's more than just Stormy Daniels?Well we can't answer that question until we see the charges.
I would assume.Does anyone else think that with 30+ charges that it's more than just Stormy Daniels?
If he were at 100% I would still say these polls don’t mean much. It’s just way too far away and nobody is really paying attention so it’s basically a name recognition game right now.
We will see. If I were a betting man I would bet he is not the nominee for precisely the reason you mention - people know he will lose the general election.
Have you seen his lawyers?I would assume.
But I also assume Donalds lawyers can probably get most of them thrown out. I am guessing 30 charges means the DA knew that too. In reality they only expect to get 2 or 3 or maybe 4.
Which is fine by me. If Donald gets one whole month in prison I'd still be happy.
I put it at 10%I put it at closer to 50-70% of republicans being cultists. To me, the surest indication is polling regarding the 2020 election. Only a Trump cultist would actually believe that nonsense.
I put it at 10%
The merely sanctioned ones, the disbarred ones, or his former lawyers that are still under criminal investigation?Have you seen his lawyers?
I put it at 10%