Trump NY indictment thread

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akugami

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2005
6,087
2,455
136
I put it at closer to 50-70% of republicans being cultists. To me, the surest indication is polling regarding the 2020 election. Only a Trump cultist would actually believe that nonsense.

There was a poll showing 68% of the republicans disagree with you. 37% agree with you. 16% are undecided.

Polls are mostly bullshit. I almost got tricked one time by one.

Q: Do you believe in reducing government spending?
Me: Yes
Q: So you agree the government should be reducing spending on bills like the Build Back Better plan.
Me: Yes...wait...WTF?!?

I had to tell the person off and said that while I agree with reduced government spending, the Build Back Better plan will help America and I fully agree with that plan.
 
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shortylickens

No Lifer
Jul 15, 2003
80,287
17,079
136
Saying it will win him the 2024 election is just wishful thinking.
His zealots were already going to vote for him. The democrats were not likely to switch in 2024. And unless the republicans cheat AGAIN, he's not getting any more votes.
Remember those assholes with the rifles who had a van filled with Trump ballots? They were sneaking around a polling station and got captured. I cant find the link, for some odd reason.
 
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manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
12,186
3,108
136
This only proves the Republicans supporting him don't support the rule of law in this country. I had thought that at least some would be dumping Trump after all of his violations of the law. We are at this point in history because of a bunch of spineless Senate Republicans who refused to impeach Trump (twice) when he was obviously guilty. RIP GOP
sorry to be a pedant, but the House impeached Trump twice (on partisan grounds). The Senate twice failed to convict, also on partisan grounds. It's hard to say definitively what conference is worse for America, the extreme wack-jobs in the House GOP or the extremely old Senators who probably think the 1950s was the apex of America. Both are bad, in different ways; but filibuster rules make the Senate GOP old guard much more effective at obstruction.

I saw somewhere today that Cohen said it was 11 transactions.
Correct, and there could be a couple charges filed per check. Cohen's lawyer was on MtP and sounded very much like a lawyer (of which I have a generally low opinion of). But he pointed out that the Karen McDougal catch and kill payoff should also be a federal election violation, since Michael Cohen pled guilty for merely pushing paperwork for this payoff.

I sure hope you're right, that Trump will lose the primary. Because that all but eliminates any chance of the GOP taking the White House. Even if Trump doesn't split the vote by running independent, he'll spend the entire general election season bad mouthing DeSantis and depressing republican turnout.
As always, be careful what you wish for. As 538 has put it for a long time, Trump has a high floor (at least 30% of the electorate votes for him no matter who he murders) but a low ceiling. His national approval rating has never come close to 50% for a sustained time (except for the initial pandemic period when the federal response, as bungled as it was, could be viewed in crisis terms). We know from history that Trump cannot win the popular vote, but he can win the EC if the opponent is also highly unpopular AND runs a shitty campaign that ignored the Rust Belt.

My point is that we know from 2020 that Joe Biden can beat DJT decisively. That shouldn't be any different in 2024, except Biden's approval rating needs to improve before then. I don't pay close attention to Gov. DeathSantis. He almost certainly doesn't excite people as Trump at MAGA rallies, but I haven't seen evidence that he's a milquetoast either. With a lot less baggage than DJT, and his record of governance (note I didn't say good governance), he could be a much stronger candidate in the general. I'm pretty sure DeathSantis has a higher ceiling than DJT amongst the entire electorate, and that should scare the hell out of Dem. strategists.

IIRC Trump won in 2016 not so much for increasing turnout. But by depressing Dem. turnout and flipping a small number of swing voters in the Rust Belt. 2020 was more of a turnout contest, but both parties seemed to have a good ground effort and mostly nullified each other's efforts.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,214
14,196
136
As always, be careful what you wish for. As 538 has put it for a long time, Trump has a high floor (at least 30% of the electorate votes for him no matter who he murders) but a low ceiling. His national approval rating has never come close to 50% for a sustained time (except for the initial pandemic period when the federal response, as bungled as it was, could be viewed in crisis terms). We know from history that Trump cannot win the popular vote, but he can win the EC if the opponent is also highly unpopular AND runs a shitty campaign that ignored the Rust Belt.

My point is that we know from 2020 that Joe Biden can beat DJT decisively. That shouldn't be any different in 2024, except Biden's approval rating needs to improve before then. I don't pay close attention to Gov. DeathSantis. He almost certainly doesn't excite people as Trump at MAGA rallies, but I haven't seen evidence that he's a milquetoast either. With a lot less baggage than DJT, and his record of governance (note I didn't say good governance), he could be a much stronger candidate in the general. I'm pretty sure DeathSantis has a higher ceiling than DJT amongst the entire electorate, and that should scare the hell out of Dem. strategists.

IIRC Trump won in 2016 not so much for increasing turnout. But by depressing Dem. turnout and flipping a small number of swing voters in the Rust Belt. 2020 was more of a turnout contest, but both parties seemed to have a good ground effort and mostly nullified each other's efforts.

My point wasn't that DeSantis is a worse general election candidate than Trump, though he may well be. It's that Trump losing the primary would mean he will sabatoge DeSantis in the general election by constantly sniping at him over social media, day after day after day. Based on past behavior, there's near 100% chance of Trump behaving this way. That's going to cause people in that 30% floor you mentioned to not show up and vote for DeSantis. So yes, I most definitely hope Trump loses the primary. Heck, Trump would probably even say the GOP primary was rigged. Would that be a surprise?
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
15,680
14,210
146
My point wasn't that DeSantis is a worse general election candidate than Trump, though he may well be. It's that Trump losing the primary would mean he will sabatoge DeSantis in the general election by constantly sniping at him over social media, day after day after day. Based on past behavior, there's near 100% chance of Trump behaving this way. That's going to cause people in that 30% floor you mentioned to not show up and vote for DeSantis. So yes, I most definitely hope Trump loses the primary. Heck, Trump would probably even say the GOP primary was rigged. Would that be a surprise?
Its a forgone conclusion. Trump is unwinnable based on everything different from 2016 (dead COVID vaccine deniers, dead boomers, people who realized he's radioactive, middle-road R's who realized he's shit, people he's likely to get indicted, etc). DeSantis is unwinnable from the morons who still support Trump. Republicans created what's effectively a three-party system (the worst system) with themselves in the dual minority.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,595
6,442
126
I certainly hope we can avoid the catastrophe of having our first President running the country from jail. Surely he will have enough good sense to pardon himself and avoid such a spectacle. Where would American exceptionalism be if not anything is possible here.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
12,186
3,108
136
My point wasn't that DeSantis is a worse general election candidate than Trump, though he may well be. It's that Trump losing the primary would mean he will sabatoge DeSantis in the general election by constantly sniping at him over social media, day after day after day. Based on past behavior, there's near 100% chance of Trump behaving this way. That's going to cause people in that 30% floor you mentioned to not show up and vote for DeSantis. So yes, I most definitely hope Trump loses the primary. Heck, Trump would probably even say the GOP primary was rigged. Would that be a surprise?
My point is that you are way too certain on this scenario, and we really don't know how it would play out. If Trump can't defeat DeSantis under ideal conditions (a primary race), how strong of a voice does he really have over the GOP electorate? Based on polling you cited earlier, DJT would have blown approx. a 30-point lead. Don't get me wrong, your points are indeed salient. But in a vacuum, I'd be more worried about an opponent who could crack 50% than one who could never exceed 48%.

The one thing I do know is that Biden needs an approval rating closer to 49% than beneath 45%. There's a massive disconnect between what the administration has accomplished vs. what voters feel about the economy. A key factor is if the Fed can successfully tame inflation before next summer. On a related note, if there is a recession, that it would be mild and occur in calendar 2023 rather than next year.
 

eelw

Diamond Member
Dec 4, 1999
9,903
5,058
136
I certainly hope we can avoid the catastrophe of having our first President running the country from jail. Surely he will have enough good sense to pardon himself and avoid such a spectacle. Where would American exceptionalism be if not anything is possible here.
Assuming the orange monkey managed to get 270 and it was legit, I see Biden granting a pardon as one of his last acts
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,922
9,006
136
But even with all this faux outrage, they’ll support him until the end. Absolutely no shame these people.
They'll publicly support him as long as they think it serves their purposes. That could change at any time what with the unpredictable rapids ahead.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,595
6,442
126
Assuming the orange monkey managed to get 270 and it was legit, I see Biden granting a pardon as one of his last acts
I can see it but I do doubt he would. Anyway, I don't think we really need to worry. Trump is toast.
 
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sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,492
3,162
136
It's inevitable that Donald Trump will flee the US. He thinks he can win this indictment in court which he won't, Trump thinks his fans or some magical law enacted by Fox News via MTGreene will save him which it won't, he thinks the name brand of Donald Trump will eventually save him and that won't happen either.

I know, and we all know that the one thing Donald Trump absolutely does not want to do and absolutely will never do is to serve time in prison. And if found guilty, Trump will almost certainly serve some time be it weeks or months, and that Trump simply will not do. So as time passes and the trial actually begins and the Trump lawyers eventually realize that Donald Trump is going to lose and be sentenced by the judge, his lawyers will advise Donald Trump to flee the country.
It's a given, because Donald Trump is no hero nor a Nelson Mandela. Mandela was sentenced and served his time until released in 1990. Does anyone really believe Donald Trump is going to accept a prison sentence? A convicted felon with having his money? A convicted felon having his resources? A convicted felon having his own fully-fueled jet airplane? Seriously????

Trump will not flee right away, but will be prepared to flee and flee the very day Trump realizes or is told by his attorneys that the case is lost, that Trump will be found guilty, and the judge is going to impose sentence.

On the up-side, if his loyalist fans are really really as loyal as they claim then they will have no choice but to flee the country too. All of them can start a new cult maybe in some obscure part of the Soviet Union. A section of the Soviet Union Putin is willing to give up to Trump. Oh, say, how about Siberia?

 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
15,143
7,653
136
If and when trump is convicted and goes to jail how will they determine which secret service agents go with him? Draw names out of a hat?


That's when it'll be no fun to hang with Donald anymore and the nugget in the group will end up babysitting him until the next FNG gets drafted.
 
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