Since ol Slow has made himself a ghost, i thought it was time we bump the thread again with the latest developments.
-Disappointing job numbers released today for March. Only 103k jobs.
-Unemployment rate flat for 6th straight month (albiet at a low 4.1%)
-y/y wage growth in same range we've seen since 2016 @2.7%. This is concerning considering where we are at in the cycle and unemployment rate...
Takeaway is that econ is still going strong, but haven't really broken out of the band we've been stuck in for last several years, but risks are increasing.
-Brutal stretch in the stock markets due in part to policy uncertainty and trade fears. Overall down over 2% YTD as of today, but down almost 8% (2100 pts) off of the January high.
We've lost all the gains since Thanksgiving and the shitshow looks like it's still in act 1.
Something tells me Slow won't be back any time soon, at least not in this thread. It's hard to champion the "Trump is the greatest thing to happen to the US economy" falsehood when the man has single-handedly torpedoed months of stock market gains and isn't actually improving job growth or unemployment. The best you can say is that he hasn't fundamentally screwed things up... yet. He may actually want to hope those China tariffs either fall apart or don't take effect until after the mid-terms.
Not to totally derail the thread, but have any of the other alts come back since Slow vanished? I know incorruptible popped up and then vanished again fairly quickly. Maybe they're just cycling?Since ol Slow has made himself a ghost, i thought it was time we bump the thread again with the latest developments.
-Disappointing job numbers released today for March. Only 103k jobs.
-Unemployment rate flat for 6th straight month (albiet at a low 4.1%)
-y/y wage growth in same range we've seen since 2016 @2.7%. This is concerning considering where we are at in the cycle and unemployment rate...
Takeaway is that econ is still going strong, but haven't really broken out of the band we've been stuck in for last several years, but risks are increasing.
-Brutal stretch in the stock markets due in part to policy uncertainty and trade fears. Overall down over 2% YTD as of today, but down almost 8% (2100 pts) off of the January high.
We've lost all the gains since Thanksgiving and the shitshow looks like it's still in act 1.
Him, A777pilot was another that suddenly appeared the same day. It was noticeable. Although I don't necessarily buy into the everyone is an alt theory the number that suddenly crept up all at once started to make me a believer.Not to totally derail the thread, but have any of the other alts come back since Slow vanished? I know incorruptible popped up and then vanished again fairly quickly. Maybe they're just cycling?
Oh totally, certainly a lot of hyperbole about alts, and I'm not entirely convinced Slow is one, but there certainly are a few. A777 and Alpha whatever are on that list.Him, A777pilot was another that suddenly appeared the same day. It was noticeable. Although I don't necessarily buy into the everyone is an alt theory the number that suddenly crept up all at once started to make me a believer.
Glad I moved almost 1/2 million into the Fidelity government and corporate bond fund 2 weeks ago. Not going to lose 35% again MFrs.Blame today on Treasuries finally hitting the magic 3% number. There could be a deeper selloff coming as a result. There's some weak performers showing up suddenly.
Ordinarily I would say that the president, and specifically, presidential policy, has limited to no effect on economic performance.
I posit the Trump corollary: you generally can't make the economy perform well unilaterally, but you sure can fuck it up royally unilaterally.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...measures-up-after-1-year-in-office-2018-01-17
Not bad. Towed the line in some places, nice numbers in others. I'd like to see workforce participation improve, and of course wage increases. But after one year, not a bad start. Thoughts?
markets are taking a huge hit today, today will be five days in the red in a row, the most consecutive in nearly a year, looks like those tax cuts aren't having the effect they were supposed to...
Self-ownage thread of the year nominee.
BTW, my 401k has gone up almost 14% over Trump's first year. I hope all of you are having good returns as well.
The attempted bounce failed. Up 300+ this morning. Now, all 3 indexes back in the red. Not saying it won't rally or bounce but all roads lead to down currently.
What a shit show cheeto has walked us into.