Trump to decertify the Iran nuclear deal.

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ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,345
15,156
136
While trump did punt this to Congress there was a comment he made that I missed that is concerning. He said he will send it to Congress to fix and if they can't fix it he will end the agreement, he gave Congress 60 days.

It will be interesting to see what he does after 60 days. My guess is he will try to pretend it never happened.
 

brainhulk

Diamond Member
Sep 14, 2007
9,418
454
126
No, it isn't Israel or even trying to undo Obama. It's Trump's base. Iran is the "enemy" to American conservatives and Trump knows this. As with virtually everything he does, he is trying to please them. The consequences of this decision are of course unimportant because they affect the country as a whole, which is of no significance to him whatsoever.

This in a nutshell is all it boils down to. Trump appeasing his base and getting them fired up. Iran, North Korea, Black NFL players, Illegal immigrants...the more anger Trump can stoke from these guys, the more his alt right base will rally to his side.
 

pad23amg

Junior Member
Oct 12, 2017
13
0
11
To be honest, I was against the deal from the start because it's terms seem like no real deterrent to development of nuclear arms. But I've now been able to see how important and fickle Iran's progress toward westernization has been. Providing a holding environment that enables changing in attitudes has been very important, but now Trump threatens that and provides momentum for political pendulum swings throughout the world.

As with virtually everything he does, he is trying to please them. The consequences of this decision are of course unimportant because they affect the country as a whole, which is of no significance to him whatsoever.

It also hinders the development of all countries due to the sanctions and the hike in oil prices. It affect mostly the developing countries and developed countries with no oil reserve. When we compare the development models of different states like Gujarat, we can see the importance of free trade without sanctions and terror.

Its a bad political move which may again make Iran irate and boost their intention to continue with their nuke programs.
 
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Puffnstuff

Lifer
Mar 9, 2005
16,048
4,807
136
Its a bad political move which may again make Iran irate and boost their intention to continue with their nuke programs.
Their revolutionary guard have already threatened U.S. bases within a 2k kilometer range of them. When the missiles and bombs start raining down I hope the carpet factories are spared.
 

Thebobo

Lifer
Jun 19, 2006
18,592
7,673
136
Its not like its a secret or anything that Iran has been on the pentagon's radar for many years.

Well of course the make contingent plans for all sorts of battles but no one in his right mind would actually wage a war there. Well except Cheney and Trump. You gonna join up to fight the infidels?
 

VRAMdemon

Diamond Member
Aug 16, 2012
6,576
7,823
136
Again...How exactly does not certifying the deal prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon? Getting rid of the deal helps hardliners in Iran greatly, and has no benefit to the US. It greatly increases the chances Iran starts up a nuke program. What does de-certifying even mean? Has that verbiage ever been used in terms of foreign policy before? Is it possible that trump will somehow "de-certify" the deal to please his base while it still functionally remains the same? As I understand decertification, on its own, does not put the US in violation of this deal, because it doesn’t reimpose sanctions. There’s nothing in the text of the deal itself that requires the American president to certify that Iran is complying with the deal’s terms.

It seems that Trump would like to have a war with either or both of Iran and North Korea (presumably in service of some sort of twisted goal of earning 'respect' for America), and he is basically trying to provoke them into threatening behavior.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,345
15,156
136
Again...How exactly does not certifying the deal prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon? Getting rid of the deal helps hardliners in Iran greatly, and has no benefit to the US. It greatly increases the chances Iran starts up a nuke program. What does de-certifying even mean? Has that verbiage ever been used in terms of foreign policy before? Is it possible that trump will somehow "de-certify" the deal to please his base while it still functionally remains the same? As I understand decertification, on its own, does not put the US in violation of this deal, because it doesn’t reimpose sanctions. There’s nothing in the text of the deal itself that requires the American president to certify that Iran is complying with the deal’s terms.

It seems that Trump would like to have a war with either or both of Iran and North Korea (presumably in service of some sort of twisted goal of earning 'respect' for America), and he is basically trying to provoke them into threatening behavior.

Decertifying was a mechanism put in the deal to essentially call it off. What it means is that countries would immediately begin new sanctions on Iran for violating the deal. However, since Iran isn't violating the agreement and it doesn't appear the other signers will be leaving, it basically means the US will be the only one putting sanctions on Iran. Iran could in theory say the deal has been violated and restart its nuclear program. Iran would come out smelling like a rise and the US would come out looking like the untrustworthy devil that some countries imagine us to be.

No matter how you look at it, it was an extremely stupid move. The fact that not a single person has come out to defend this move gives you an idea just how stupid the move is.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
The best case scenario is for Congress to establish meaningless "trigger points" that would scuttle the existing deal anyway so that Trump can say he won... Hell- he might even believe it.
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,289
28,144
136
The following countries are signators on the Iran nuclear agreement

US
France
Germany
China
UK
EU
Russia

Trump is the only one in the list who claims Iran has violated the agreement. Who do you believe? Trump or the remaining countries on the list?

My guess is anybody but the habitual liar
 
Reactions: Thebobo

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,885
34,849
136
Trump will never get the multilateral sanctions re-imposed as long as Iran adheres to the agreement, which it looks like they will. This whole effort is a big fat fail from a group of people who promised they could, somehow, improve on Obama's deal but now seeing the challenge don't seem interested in even giving that a serious attempt.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
The following countries are signators on the Iran nuclear agreement

US
France
Germany
China
UK
EU
Russia

Trump is the only one in the list who claims Iran has violated the agreement. Who do you believe? Trump or the remaining countries on the list?

My guess is anybody but the habitual liar

The Trump admin contends that Iran violates the "spirit" of the agreement, not the agreement itself. It's nonsense, but the well indoctrinated Repub base just loves it. That's the whole point- keeping the base nicely irrational, drinking the trickle down kool-aid.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,345
15,156
136
The Trump admin contends that Iran violates the "spirit" of the agreement, not the agreement itself. It's nonsense, but the well indoctrinated Repub base just loves it. That's the whole point- keeping the base nicely irrational, drinking the trickle down kool-aid.

Republicans and the right seem to love their meaningless gestures.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
What really happened is that Iran built a truly credible nuclear proliferation threat to bargain it away for the US abandoning our long standing policy of isolation & regime change. It was a highly skillful exercise in brinkmanship on their part. They put us in the position that we were willing to do that in order to prevent nuclear proliferation.

There never was any realistic military option nor is there today.
 

J.Wilkins

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,681
640
91
What really happened is that Iran built a truly credible nuclear proliferation threat to bargain it away for the US abandoning our long standing policy of isolation & regime change. It was a highly skillful exercise in brinkmanship on their part. They put us in the position that we were willing to do that in order to prevent nuclear proliferation.

There never was any realistic military option nor is there today.

I wonder where I heard that before... Only saber rattling, eh?

Six months later... Well we all know what happened the last time the US didn't want to hear what the IAEA had to say regarding a nation they had been dying to invade for a decade.

This time, YOU go first.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,820
29,571
146
While trump did punt this to Congress there was a comment he made that I missed that is concerning. He said he will send it to Congress to fix and if they can't fix it he will end the agreement, he gave Congress 60 days.

It will be interesting to see what he does after 60 days. My guess is he will try to pretend it never happened.

Or Congress will very publicly do nothing, Trump and Kellyanne and Pence will claim over and over that Congress did do something, and it was great and perfect, and claim their own victory over getting Congress to fix things.

I'm taking odds on this.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,820
29,571
146
Trump will never get the multilateral sanctions re-imposed as long as Iran adheres to the agreement, which it looks like they will. This whole effort is a big fat fail from a group of people who promised they could, somehow, improve on Obama's deal but now seeing the challenge don't seem interested in even giving that a serious attempt.

Governing is hard. Who knew?
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
I wonder where I heard that before... Only saber rattling, eh?

Six months later... Well we all know what happened the last time the US didn't want to hear what the IAEA had to say regarding a nation they had been dying to invade for a decade.

This time, YOU go first.

Please. 9/11 was the greatest political windfall since Pearl Harbor. The Bushistas fashioned it into a bludgeon against all enemies, foreign & domestic but when it came to Iran even they realized they had a nut too big to crack. It's a strategically advantaged advanced society of 80M people who are fiercely nationalistic. They won't be subdued short of genocide. And so long as they're in compliance with the deal, the ROTW will back them, not us.
 

FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
What really happened is that Iran built a truly credible nuclear proliferation threat to bargain it away for the US abandoning our long standing policy of isolation & regime change. It was a highly skillful exercise in brinkmanship on their part. They put us in the position that we were willing to do that in order to prevent nuclear proliferation.

There never was any realistic military option nor is there today.

Don't be surprised if it turns our government has no idea what it is or isn't capable of doing wrt military action in Iran. I could definitely see Trump authorizing bombings on Iranian nuclear facilities. I don't think the US military is foolish enough to send troops into Iran, but we are definitely stupid enough to try bombing them. The USAF and USN consider no territory off-limits and would jump at the chance to conduct such a strike.


The Israelis want us to invade. That is their dream for nearly a decade now, maybe more. With Trump's utter incompetence and the way they wag the dog, they might get their wish. Who knows, really... I never thought they would get the deal torn up but it looks like Bibi finally pulled it off.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,345
15,156
136
I've already done my part for this country. Have you served in our armed forces?

You think serving in the military of your own free will and doing the bidding of a government that lies to go to war and covertly undermines foreign governments is doing your part? If that's doing your part then you haven't done shit. Tell me, what did you get in exchange for your service? A nice pay check? Practical skills? A free education? Life long medical benefits? Gtfo.

Those that go into the military for altruistic motives usually don't hold it over everyone else's head.

Your service demands no more respect than any other person doing any other job in America.

Hell, your voting history probably has caused more harm than any amount of good you think you did serving this country.
 
Reactions: Victorian Gray

Puffnstuff

Lifer
Mar 9, 2005
16,048
4,807
136
You think serving in the military of your own free will and doing the bidding of a government that lies to go to war and covertly undermines foreign governments is doing your part? If that's doing your part then you haven't done shit. Tell me, what did you get in exchange for your service? A nice pay check? Practical skills? A free education? Life long medical benefits? Gtfo.

Those that go into the military for altruistic motives usually don't hold it over everyone else's head.

Your service demands no more respect than any other person doing any other job in America.

Hell, your voting history probably has caused more harm than any amount of good you think you did serving this country.
Snowflake much?
 
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