Trump to impose tariffs on Mexico due to immigration/asylum issue, starting June 10

[SMOGZINN]

The Mexicans certainly could be cooking up a way to give him a cosmetic win as other nations do from time to time.

Since he created no metrics or explanation as to what needs to happen to avoid these tariffs Trump can at any time just decide that Mexico has done what he wanted, declare that he has won and call the whole thing off. If he starts to really feel the heat that is fully what I am expecting to happen. All Mexico really needs to do is make lock-step tariffs on American goods (which will not even require much effort since these are on all goods) and wait for Trumps base to get angry, which they will.

Some of the Senate GOP is starting to get antsy though. If Trump puts tariffs on we'll see if they are actually interested in political self preservation.

There is certainly going to be some talk about amending the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to not allow such broad powers with so little oversight. We might even see SCOTUS step in and declare that Congress as abdicated to much power with this and declare the act unconstitutional.

 

[VRAMdemon]

The Mexicans certainly could be cooking up a way to give him a cosmetic win as other nations do from time to time. Though he feels more cornered on his flagship issue these days so I don't know if that's going to be enough this time.

Some of the Senate GOP is starting to get antsy though. If Trump puts tariffs on we'll see if they are actually interested in political self preservation.

There have been rumblings that Senate Republicans have let it be known that they would vote to disapprove Mexican tariffs, with a veto-proof majority.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-...fs-11559666178

https://apnews.com/d6eecc09aec34dd99783a174f3d9b6dd

Watching Trump try to walk back from the shit-show he started could be epic.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Given the meeting today with the gop congress and their firm refusal to accept any tariffs I suspect this will end quickly. Watch for Trump to claim some victory and tout what Mexico has already been doing all along as some sort of proof.

 

[Jhhnn]

There have been rumblings that Senate Republicans have let it be known that they would vote to disapprove Mexican tariffs, with a veto-proof majority.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-...fs-11559666178

https://apnews.com/d6eecc09aec34dd99783a174f3d9b6dd

Watching Trump try to walk back from the shit-show he started could be epic.

Uhh-huh. You betcha. They won't do shit. Trump owns the base, heart & soul. Woe be unto any & all who oppose him, ever. After crazifying their base for decades they're now captive to the insanity they created.

 

[VRAMdemon]

The tariffs are getting heavy negative press coverage in Texas. It's a $5-10 billion hit to the state, depending upon who you ask. Will Trump mess with Texas? Will Texas go loco in response?

 

[VRAMdemon]

Uhh-huh. You betcha. They won't do shit. Trump owns the base, heart & soul. Woe be unto any & all who oppose him, ever. After crazifying their base for decades they're now captive to the insanity they created.

They know they can have it both ways - make some news criticizing/opposing Trump, but not actually having to vote on it because they know McConnell "probably" won't let that happen. We'll see

 

[Jhhnn]

The tariffs are getting heavy negative press coverage in Texas. It's a $5-10 billion hit to the state, depending upon who you ask. Will Trump mess with Texas? Will Texas go loco in response?

It doesn't really matter. Trumpism has no rational underpinning. There's no sense to it. It's pure emotional froth so I'm sure most devotees will find a way to rationalize unless they get fucked so hard they won't be able to. This may do it-

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...2c830afe24f_story.html?utm_term=.fa9983dc56a4

Investor class tax cuts create lots of hot money chasing returns, always.

 

[Indus]

There have been rumblings that Senate Republicans have let it be known that they would vote to disapprove Mexican tariffs, with a veto-proof majority.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-...fs-11559666178

https://apnews.com/d6eecc09aec34dd99783a174f3d9b6dd

Watching Trump try to walk back from the shit-show he started could be epic.

That's if Pelosi does anything. She's smart enough to do nothing in this process and let Trump hang himself.

 

[SMOGZINN]

Uhh-huh. You betcha. They won't do shit. Trump owns the base, heart & soul. Woe be unto any & all who oppose him, ever. After crazifying their base for decades they're now captive to the insanity they created.

If there is anything that can get them to act it is a threat to their pocketbook. The GOP might care nothing about a treasonous President, but they certainly care if he puts their dononations at risk.

 

[K1052]

The tariffs are getting heavy negative press coverage in Texas. It's a $5-10 billion hit to the state, depending upon who you ask. Will Trump mess with Texas? Will Texas go loco in response?

Trump’s approval figures in TX are already not great. I can’t imagine this will help.

 

[VRAMdemon]

If there is anything that can get them to act it is a threat to their pocketbook. The GOP might care nothing about a treasonous President, but they certainly care if he puts their dononations at risk.

Yeap..the smarter republicans understand that many people are tolerating Trump's bullshit because the economy is growing. Trump's policies are threatening that growth, and there are already some very clear warning signs right now indicating that the economy might contract later in the year. Even if the economy as a whole does not slow down, some critical parts of the economy that are a major part of their constituency - Rust Belt manufacturing and agriculture - are already beginning to feel the bite of tariffs.

Some GOP Senators actually do get it: right-leaning independents who oppose impeachment now might feel differently about it if the economy nosedives.

McConnell has all the leverage right now; Trump is just an empty windbag shouting "tariffs!"

The problem that Cocaine Mitch and his party have created for themselves is that they have sided with Trump's Mexico and Mexican bashing. They might understand that it's dangerous for Trump to follow through with his tariff threat, but his hardcore followers who are addicted to conservative media may not.

 

[SMOGZINN]

They might understand that it's dangerous for Trump to follow through with his tariff threat, but his hardcore followers who are addicted to conservative media may not.

I agree, but I would point out that the conservative media, at least Fox News, does not really care about Trump. They have an agenda and Trump has been a useful tool, they praise his every inane utterance in order to keep him rolling on their main agenda but if he endangers that main agenda, which the Mexico tariffs might do, they will turn on him fast.

It might be that Trump is so addicted to the praise they heap on him that he will find some reason to change his mind if they withdraw it. At least I think that is how they believe they can control Trump, and they just might be right.

 

[VRAMdemon]

Companies add fewest jobs in 9 years in May

U.S. companies added the fewest jobs in nine years, a private survey found, as manufacturers, construction firms and mining companies cut workers.

Payroll processor ADP said Wednesday that businesses added just 27,000 jobs in May, the fewest since March 2010. Jobs in construction fell 36,000 and in manufacturing by 3,000.

The figures come just after ADP reported strong hiring in April, when companies added 271,000 jobs, the most in nine months. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, which helps compile the data, said the broader hiring trend is probably closer to the average of the two month’s gains, at around 150,000.

That is down from last year’s average monthly gains of about 225,000.

“The economy’s growth rate has slowed sharply from last year,” Zandi said. “That is now starting to show up in the job market.”

Growth could slow to as low as 1.5% at an annual rate in the April-June quarter, down from a nearly 3% pace last year. A weaker global economy and fading stimulus from the Trump administration’s tax cuts is dragging on the U.S. economy.

He threatened to close the border and it turned out to be a bluff, it's possible, and I'm just guessing this will also turn out to be a bluff. He doesn't want to risk the embarrassment of facing a public rebuke from his own party

 

[VRAMdemon]

I agree, but I would point out that the conservative media, at least Fox News, does not really care about Trump. They have an agenda and Trump has been a useful tool, they praise his every inane utterance in order to keep him rolling on their main agenda but if he endangers that main agenda, which the Mexico tariffs might do, they will turn on him fast.

It might be that Trump is so addicted to the praise they heap on him that he will find some reason to change his mind if they withdraw it. At least I think that is how they believe they can control Trump, and they just might be right.

Maybe Republicans will realize in time is that they're trapped. When they abandoned their decades-old free trade principles and went down the road of selling out to appease white christian nationalists, they made a decision to let Trump go unchained. Farmers who overwhelmingly voted for this bastard are beginning to wake up to a cold, hard reality: if he makes America great again, it won't involve making American agriculture great again. Right now, it's turning into an unmitigated disaster, and it's just starting.

I'm sure Trump will start to feel heat and possibly sign a truce with China, and then claim victory, and maybe he'll do that in time for the election, but if his trade wars drag on through summer and into fall when the harvests will be mostly complete, Trump could be in serious trouble.

 

[hal2kilo]

Since he created no metrics or explanation as to what needs to happen to avoid these tariffs Trump can at any time just decide that Mexico has done what he wanted, declare that he has won and call the whole thing off. If he starts to really feel the heat that is fully what I am expecting to happen. All Mexico really needs to do is make lock-step tariffs on American goods (which will not even require much effort since these are on all goods) and wait for Trumps base to get angry, which they will.



There is certainly going to be some talk about amending the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to not allow such broad powers with so little oversight. We might even see SCOTUS step in and declare that Congress as abdicated to much power with this and declare the act unconstitutional.

Once again, Congress gave these powers which belonged to them, to the executive.

 

[SMOGZINN]

Once again, Congress gave these powers which belonged to them, to the executive.

SCOTUS has said multiple times in the past said that powers explicitly tasked to Congress by the Constitution can not be given away by Congress. Legally speaking Tariffs are duties and the Constitution explicitly states that only Congress can "lay and collect taxes, duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defense and general Welfare of the United States, and regulate trade between the US and other countries."

In both A.L.A. Schechter Poultry Corp. v. United States, 295 U.S. 495 (1935) and J.W. Hampton v. United States, 276 U.S. 394 (1928) SCOTUS has said "Congress is not permitted to abdicate or to transfer to others the essential legislative functions with which it is thus vested."

 

[Jhhnn]

Companies add fewest jobs in 9 years in May





He threatened to close the border and it turned out to be a bluff, it's possible, and I'm just guessing this will also turn out to be a bluff. He doesn't want to risk the embarrassment of facing a public rebuke from his own party

That's because tariffs aren't high enough to bring back the jobs! Everybody knows this.

 

[Indus]

This fake news just in:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1136267556199784448

 

[K1052]

Reportedly Mexico is offering a deal where they deploy a few thousand of their national guard to the border and let the US deport Central American asylum seekers to Mexico. I think the latter part of this runs afoul of existing US law since this still can't be done without courts reviewing hearing each case. Also I'm really unsure of the political popularity of such a proposal in Mexico itself.

So far the admin has simply demanded that inflows return to the low numbers of two years ago. This proposal seems really unlikely to accomplish that. Is it enough for Trump to claim a win and pull back the tariff threat while facing a decided lack of support for this in his own party? Maybe, but we'll see.

 

[soundforbjt]

Recordings from the Kudlow show in 2015, Kudlow warns of a recession if tariffs were enacted by Trump on Mexico, this was after Trump had announced his candidacy. Kudlow said when asked about it today, "that was then, this is now".

 

[hal2kilo]

Recordings from the Kudlow show in 2015, Kudlow warns of a recession if tariffs were enacted by Trump on Mexico, this was after Trump had announced his candidacy. Kudlow said when asked about it today, "that was then, this is now".

Kudlow's a tool and always will be. It was so nice when he finally left CNBC.

 

[brandonbull]

More random ass tax increases on American consumers for no good reason.

WTF. Where is that little c$&nie Grover Norquist and his stupid tax pledge these days?

Paying for illegal aliens to play soccer and get free health care while awaiting immigration court is a very large random tax on the American taxpayer.

 

[K1052]

Paying for illegal aliens to play soccer and get free health care while awaiting immigration court is a very large random tax on the American taxpayer.

Economically it's not even close to the same ballpark.

 

[K1052]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1136742096554139656

It seems unlikely any agreement will be reached prior to Monday that would satisfy Trump. Not that I think there really is much Mexico itself can actually do about what's happening. Destabilizing Mexico's economy will be enormously counterproductive.

 

[SMOGZINN]

Paying for illegal aliens to play soccer and get free health care while awaiting immigration court is a very large random tax on the American taxpayer.

Then how about we fix immigration court so they don't have to wait so long? The billions we have already spend on a useless wall could have went a long way towards that.