Trump Will Win Re-election for 2020 (Personal Prediction)

[ivwshane]

It’s not propaganda, what part do you disagree with? Those are the two things that I think could hurt Biden the most and that he needs to address, just my opinion. And I’ve lurked for a while but oddly enough felt the need to register to give some love advice to a 26 year old who hasn’t had sex yet but had questions about it, for some reason I felt like offering my advice.

It most certainly is Russian propaganda unless you have something concrete about biden's health or can link any of the protests to biden.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/with-a-mix-of-covert-disinformation-and-blatant-propaganda-foreign-adversaries-bear-down-on-final-phase-of-presidential-campaign/2020/08/20/57997b7a-dbf1-11ea-8051-d5f887d73381_story.html

 

[shortylickens]

Yeah I’ve never understood the argument that SF or NYC are "shitholes". They are two of the most desirable places in the world to live and like you said has problems but so does literally every other place. And I don’t get the hate on Chicago either and people saying that it’s so dangerous. Per capita it’s definitely not the most dangerous city in America but people love to advertise any time there’s a shooting there and say "see!" but they ignore the shootings in their own backyard.

Only if you're rich.
If you're middle or lower class they are terrible places to live.
Chicago IS dangerous but since so many places in America are even worse it just doesn't seem that bad. Yeah we have St Louis and Baltimore and Kansas City but I wouldn't wanna live there either.
To the average European its kind of ridiculous that buttload of cities in the Greatest Nation On Earth would have such horrific crime.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

You spout a lot of right wing propaganda for a so called moderate. Pelosi did her job on legislation to assist those in need. Republicans in the Senate shot them down. Dems offered to meet halfway, Republicans shot that down to. It's because Trump doesn't want any aid to go to blue states and cities. How does he get away with this? Because ignoramuses like you say shit like this.

I love how a city with some of the highest price per square foot real estate in the country is all shit. Because that's what people pay top dollar for. Seriously. I hear this all the time about new york. Pre Covid. Has its problems, but to call one of the most dynamic cities with some of the most coveted real estate in the world as basically a shithole screams right wing ignorant propaganda as well.

Ahhh your partisan stupidity knows no bounds.... As you continue to cite pure propaganda under the guise of "They passed a bloated piece of shit that no rational person would pass" and then when offered to pass the rational individual mandates that ACTUALLY FUCKING EFFECT the middle class they say "Naw dude... Naw... We gotta have all the other bloated shit that doesn't effect the middle class" lol.

But go ahead and tell me again how they're the one that isn't willing to help the middle class broceritops. Keep telling yourself complete bullshit to keep sippin the conspiracy koolaid. Whatever you keep declaring that the Republicans wouldn't pass .... They did and actively offered to pass. The Democrats refused because they wanted their sweet corporate bailouts that Republicans refused.

But again, you will immediately dismiss this. You won't research it. You won't acknowledge it. It's unsurprising to say the least.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Only if you're rich.
If you're middle or lower class they are terrible places to live.
Chicago IS dangerous but since so many places in America are even worse it just doesn't seem that bad. Yeah we have St Louis and Baltimore and Kansas City but I wouldn't wanna live there either.
To the average European its kind of ridiculous that buttload of cities in the Greatest Nation On Earth would have such horrific crime.

You do realize everyone on your side will valiantly declare that what you're saying is false, right?

Facts be damned, they will continue to act as if anyone (legal or not) are welcome at anytime and can make tons of bank in a progressive city.

 

[MrSquished]

I think the Biden age/mental capacity thing and the looting thing are indeed two of his biggest issues. It doesn't matter if they aren't true, it matters who plays better politics with those issues.

The so called liberal media isn't doing Biden any favors. Their mantra is If it bleeds it leads. Showing beautiful crowds protesting peacefully or chanting is boring to them. That's unfortunately what people need to be seeing as that represents most of the overall protesting. But they don't, so Bidens campaign has to compensate for that. Harp against the small percentage of violent actors repeatedly while praising the peaceful.

Attack Trump's mental capacity. Show videos of him slurring words, rambling on, suggesting idiotic crap.

Play the game of politics

 

[MrSquished]

Ahhh your partisan stupidity knows no bounds.... As you continue to cite pure propaganda under the guise of "They passed a bloated piece of shit that no rational person would pass" and then when offered to pass the rational individual mandates that ACTUALLY FUCKING EFFECT the middle class they say "Naw dude... Naw... We gotta have all the other bloated shit that doesn't effect the middle class" lol.

But go ahead and tell me again how they're the one that isn't willing to help the middle class broceritops. Keep telling yourself complete bullshit to keep sippin the conspiracy koolaid. Whatever you keep declaring that the Republicans wouldn't pass .... They did and actively offered to pass. The Democrats refused because they wanted their sweet corporate bailouts that Republicans refused.

But again, you will immediately dismiss this. You won't research it. You won't acknowledge it. It's unsurprising to say the least.

It's only bloated because you say it's bloated. The fed can spend trillions to prop up the stock market but not to save the middle and lower class and state and local governments? Which strongly affect the middle class? Still they offered to meet halfway, that's a hell of a lot more than the Republicans did.

Still you spout nonsense. Just like that Biden is not going to Michigan, and somehow Kamala was a horrible pick.

I mean you have a point, Trump for sure can still win. Just mostly everything else you say is garbage.

 

[Fourth Planet]

Only if you're rich.
If you're middle or lower class they are terrible places to live.
Chicago IS dangerous but since so many places in America are even worse it just doesn't seem that bad. Yeah we have St Louis and Baltimore and Kansas City but I wouldn't wanna live there either.
To the average European its kind of ridiculous that buttload of cities in the Greatest Nation On Earth would have such horrific crime.

I agree about the only if you’re rich part, but that’s just because it’s so desirable to live there. There’s nothing stopping people from moving though to places with lower costs of living .(which would basically be anywhere else). America needs more people moving around in my opinion and I would probably support some sort of government credit to help people move (not across town but from one city/state to another). Mobility is critical for a healthy functioning economy but it’s been declining and people finding it harder and harder to move. It would help lift people out of poverty if they can move from a place with a high cost of living to one with a lower, or if factories/companies closed in their town and they need to move to a place that has jobs.

 

[Fourth Planet]

It most certainly is Russian propaganda unless you have something concrete about biden's health or can link any of the protests to biden.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/with-a-mix-of-covert-disinformation-and-blatant-propaganda-foreign-adversaries-bear-down-on-final-phase-of-presidential-campaign/2020/08/20/57997b7a-dbf1-11ea-8051-d5f887d73381_story.html

I said in my post that I don’t believe either one of those to be true but that doesn’t mean that many Americans are concerned about both so it would be wise for Biden to address it and put those concerns to rest. Recognizing that isn’t propaganda, it’s just the reality of recognizing what a lot of people are worried about.

 

[MrSquished]

Only if you're rich.
If you're middle or lower class they are terrible places to live.
Chicago IS dangerous but since so many places in America are even worse it just doesn't seem that bad. Yeah we have St Louis and Baltimore and Kansas City but I wouldn't wanna live there either.
To the average European its kind of ridiculous that buttload of cities in the Greatest Nation On Earth would have such horrific crime.

You can thank our right wing's obsession with circulating as many guns out there as possible, damn everything else, for a lot of the violence of crimes in American cities vs European ones.

I'm not comparing new york city or San Francisco or Chicago to St Louis or kansas city. Frankly, those are small and kind of boring villages comparatively speaking.

Not everyone that lives in new york city or near the city is rich. People sacrifice space and a car in many cases for walkability and insane amounts of culture, diversity and events. Plus job opportunities and shorter commute times.

And these cities? They subsidize the suburban lifestyle. The suburbs wouldn't exist as we know them today if the cities didn't subsidize them. It's a big catch 22. All those city dwellers make suburban living possible. Damn the cities for being so expensive, but without them, there would be no middle class suburban dream to live. And that's just the facts.

 

[ivwshane]

I said in my post that I don’t believe either one of those to be true but that doesn’t mean that many Americans are concerned about both so it would be wise for Biden to address it and put those concerns to rest. Recognizing that isn’t propaganda, it’s just the reality of recognizing what a lot of people are worried about.

No, it’s propaganda, whether you believe it or not is irrelevant, it’s still propaganda.

Here are the top issues for 2020:

4. Important issues in the 2020 election

With the country in the midst of a recession, nearly eight-in-ten registered voters (79%) say the economy will be very important to them in making their

www.pewresearch.org

Take note of the breakdown by party affiliation. The right, which is very susceptible to propaganda, just happens to be concerned with the exact issues their sources of information have been spouting.

 

[Fourth Planet]

If you says so

It would be in Biden’s best interest to address them though, that could be the difference in 4 more years of Trump or not.

 

[ivwshane]

If you says so

It would be in Biden’s best interest to address them though, that could be the difference in 4 more years of Trump or not.

I actually didn’t say so, the links I posted backed up by citations from the intelligence community said so. I then further discredited your opinion by showing you what people care about using actual polling.

The best thing Biden could do is give credibility and more air time by addressing bull shit issues, smart./eyeroll.

Biden doesn’t need to do anything other than act like a normal human being which will contrast nicely against an idiotic narcissist such as trump.

 

[Fourth Planet]

Biden doesn’t need to do anything other than act like a normal human being which will contrast nicely against an idiotic narcissist such as trump.

I’m not sure why you’re attacking my opinions on it so hard. I didn’t mean for it to be "propaganda" or anything, it’s just something that I know a lot of people are concerned about. Those certainly aren’t official issues so maybe that’s not why it appears, I’m not a pollster I don’t know. But they’re just my opinions on two things I think could be major issues for him.

I do agree with the quoted part though, Biden just needs to come off as a sane competent normal human being to contrast with the obnoxious loud insanity that is Trump and that should seal the deal. I think Americans are desperate for a return to normalcy, the past several years have been an exhausting embarrassment for our country.

 

[woolfe9998]

The good news is if this is as much of a lock as you claim you can make large sums of money by betting on it. Are you doing this? I suspect you aren’t.

If I had to bet it would be that Biden wins for the simple reason that opinions on Trump are relatively fixed, and those fixed opinions are negative.

The only thing that keeps me from guaranteeing a Biden victory is the electoral college, which gives Trump a 2-3 point advantage. If we are talking pure popular vote the chances of Trump winning that are essentially zero.

Latest analytics at 538 (podcast) are saying Trump's EC advantage is a little stronger this time because it's stacking up that there's more vote padding for Biden in deep blue states than there was for Clinton.

They gave percentage chances for Biden to win EC at each interval of popular vote advantage. If Biden wins PV by 1, Trump has like an 90% to win EC. At +2 PV, Trump has like a 70% chance. At +3 PV, it's still a slight advantage for Trump (55/45). Even at +4 PV, it's only about 70% in Biden's favor. At +5, it's over 90%.

Given that the PV aggregator is +/- 2 in accuracy, things get scary if Biden is showing under +6 on election day.

At this point, I'm thinking this election is 65/35 in Biden's favor. 538 today says its 71/29.

The good thing about this is the fact that the press is now upgrading Trump's chances of winning so we may not see as much complacency among dem voters as we did in 2016 when the media was wildly misreading the polls and saying it was an easy win for Clinton.

 

[ivwshane]

I’m not sure why you’re attacking my opinions on it so hard. I didn’t mean for it to be "propaganda" or anything, it’s just something that I know a lot of people are concerned about. Those certainly aren’t official issues so maybe that’s not why it appears, I’m not a pollster I don’t know. But they’re just my opinions on two things I think could be major issues for him.

I do agree with the quoted part though, Biden just needs to come off as a sane competent normal human being to contrast with the obnoxious loud insanity that is Trump and that should seal the deal. I think Americans are desperate for a return to normalcy, the past several years have been an exhausting embarrassment for our country.

What I’m trying to tell you is the issues you think are concerning come from propaganda, ergo, you are repeating propaganda.

We’ve had racial equality protesting since at least may, why is it only in the last two weeks it’s been attempted to be tied to Biden? Whether or not you think Biden has any responsibility is irrelevant as simply even asking the question is part of the game.

Don’t be an unwitting participant.

 

[woolfe9998]

Oh, as for Michael Moore. He's trying to manipulate democrats to make sure they turn out to vote. Exactly like James Carville was doing last month. Moore did the same thing in 2016. His "prediction" turned out to be correct but I don't think he expected it to be. I think he purposely exaggerated his argument and he's doing it again.

 

[ivwshane]

Oh, as for Michael Moore. He's trying to manipulate democrats to make sure they turn out to vote. Exactly like James Carville was doing last month. Moore did the same thing in 2016. He turned out to be correct but I don't think he expected it. I think he purposely exaggerated his argument and he's doing it again.

Mahr is actually doing the same thing and was saying as much before the democratic primary season.

 

[sportage]

I've been saying all along that Trump just might win. Take the latest scandal with Trump's dismissal of American war dead, Trump voters will not believe Trump said this. And with journalist who were present confirming that Trump did indeed say this, the journalist are then called liars. And should video or audio recordings come along to prove Trump did say this, Trump supporters would label it faked and manufactured. So..... even if iron clad proof came to light, it wouldn't matter. No matter the proof, it will be denied. Forget about Joe Biden pealing away one single Trump vote or changing the mind of one single Trump supporter, it will not happen. Donald Trump is in charge and that gives Trump a lot of super power. Trump can control the dialog, Trump can implant conspiracy theories, Trump can challenge our institutions i.e. postal system, electoral process, and Donald Trump can accuse Democratic voters as fraudulent and criminal. Republican voters, they are all fine and law abiding while the democrat voter as the corrupt fraudulent voter who's ballot can not be trusted. And... Donald Trump will take that to court, if needed to win.

America is a very sick nation. A pandemic that should unite us instead has divided us. Something as sensible as wearing a face mask has now become political. Donald Trump caused all of this, and pretty much all by himself, so yeah.... Donald Trump just could win the election, again. I'm just saying.

 

[nickqt]

Latest analytics at 538 (podcast) are saying Trump's EC advantage is a little stronger this time because it's stacking up that there's more vote padding for Biden in deep blue states than there was for Clinton.

They gave percentage chances for Biden to win EC at each interval of popular vote advantage. If Biden wins PV by 1, Trump has like an 90% to win EC. At +2 PV, Trump has like a 70% chance. At +3 PV, it's still a slight advantage for Trump (55/45). Even at +4 PV, it's only about 70% in Biden's favor. At +5, it's over 90%.

Given that the PV aggregator is +/- 2 in accuracy, things get scary if Biden is showing under +6 on election day.

At this point, I'm thinking this election is 65/35 in Biden's favor. 538 today says its 71/29.

The good thing about this is the fact that the press is now upgrading Trump's chances of winning so we may not see as much complacency among dem voters as we did in 2016 when the media was wildly misreading the polls and saying it was an easy win for Clinton.

As I've been saying for months, it's a toss-up.

I don't give a shit about a poll of WIsconsin showing Biden up +5. Just pressing a button on your phone or answering a question means shit, because it's ballots that count.

If you don't vote in-person, you better be dropping that ballot off INSIDE your precinct.

Any ballot sitting in a personal or public mailbox might as well be sitting in the trash.

Vote early, in person.

Freedom ain't free.

 

[Fourth Planet]

What I’m trying to tell you is the issues you think are concerning come from propaganda, ergo, you are repeating propaganda.

We’ve had racial equality protesting since at least may, why is it only in the last two weeks it’s been attempted to be tied to Biden? Whether or not you think Biden has any responsibility is irrelevant as simply even asking the question is part of the game.

Don’t be an unwitting participant.

Ok understood, and reread my post I don’t believe the two things to be true (Biden is competent for sure and he has nothing to do with the protests) but again that doesn’t mean they aren’t thing that people believe and so it’s up to him to dispel that. Propaganda as it may be it’s still something he’s fighting.

It being tied to Biden (and thats not really framing it right, people see it as being tied to the left thus the attachment to Biden) isn’t something that happened over the last couple weeks, it started whenever the riots started.

Im not trying to be a participant in the rights crap they push but that doesn’t mean we can’t acknowledge the things that might effect the election, and those two things I think potentially could. This back and forth between us seems kind of pointless so I think I’m going to back out, you’re free to hear me out on what I said or not. Have a good evening and I hope no hard feelings from it.

 

[ivwshane]

Ok understood, and reread my post I don’t believe the two things to be true (Biden is competent for sure and he has nothing to do with the protests) but again that doesn’t mean they aren’t thing that people believe and so it’s up to him to dispel that. Propaganda as it may be it’s still something he’s fighting.

It being tied to Biden (and thats not really framing it right, people see it as being tied to the left thus the attachment to Biden) isn’t something that happened over the last couple weeks, it started whenever the riots started.

Im not trying to be a participant in the rights crap they push but that doesn’t mean we can’t acknowledge the things that might effect the election, and those two things I think potentially could. This back and forth between us seems kind of pointless so I think I’m going to back out, you’re free to hear me out on what I said or not. Have a good evening and I hope no hard feelings from it.

No hard feelings at all. Just to summarize my point because I don’t think I was clear. The mere act of saying it’s a concern for some (while that may be true) is actually helping to legitimize a narrative.

 

[Fourth Planet]

I've been saying all along that Trump just might win. Take the latest scandal with Trump's dismissal of American war dead, Trump voters will not believe Trump said this. And with journalist who were present confirming that Trump did indeed say this, the journalist are then called liars. And should video or audio recordings come along to prove Trump did say this, Trump supporters would label it faked and manufactured. So..... even if iron clad proof came to light, it wouldn't matter. No matter the proof, it will be denied. Forget about Joe Biden pealing away one single Trump vote or changing the mind of one single Trump supporter, it will not happen. Donald Trump is in charge and that gives Trump a lot of super power. Trump can control the dialog, Trump can implant conspiracy theories, Trump can challenge our institutions i.e. postal system, electoral process, and Donald Trump can accuse Democratic voters as fraudulent and criminal. Republican voters, they are all fine and law abiding while the democrat voter as the corrupt fraudulent voter who's ballot can not be trusted. And... Donald Trump will take that to court, if needed to win.

America is a very sick nation. A pandemic that should unite us instead has divided us. Something as sensible as wearing a face mask has now become political. Donald Trump caused all of this, and pretty much all by himself, so yeah.... Donald Trump just could win the election, again. I'm just saying.

I think the remarks about the war dead didn’t really make any big waves isn’t so much that the right doesn’t believe it (they may or may not it doesn’t really matter), it’s that they know Trump is a scummy guy but don’t care. It’s already baked into the cake so nothing will surprise them and frankly they don’t really care what he says or does.

 

[nickqt]

I think the remarks about the war dead didn’t really make any big waves isn’t so much that the right doesn’t believe it (they may or may not it doesn’t really matter), it’s that they know Trump is a scummy guy but don’t care. It’s already baked into the cake so nothing will surprise them and frankly they don’t really care what he says or does.

I'm not sure how into politics you are.

Read this book. I know, I know...a book, right? Well, it's easy to read (a few hours), and the author is pretty funny considering the topic.

Also, it's online, for free. Download it as a pdf. However you want.

Bob Altemeyer - The Authoritarians

https://theauthoritarians.org/Downloads/TheAuthoritarians.pdf

It all has to do with right-wing authoritarianism, and how right-wing authoritarians perceive the world. Trump is a social dominator - the kind of person who uses right-wing authoritarians to accrue as much power as possible. We're actually very lucky that 1. Trump is a fucking dunce, 2. The Bureaucracy gives a shit, and 3. The Press, which prefers the BothSidesDoIt™ route, just can't ignore just how fucking terrible Trump is.

After reading the above book (just do it, seriously, it's an easy read) you'll actually be more concerned about an actual intelligent/capable social dominator.

 

[soulcougher73]

The good thing about this is the fact that the press is now upgrading Trump's chances of winning so we may not see as much complacency among dem voters as we did in 2016 when the media was wildly misreading the polls and saying it was an easy win for Clinton.

I totally agree with this. I’m pretty sure no Dem actually thought Trump stood a chance in 2016. Yet here we are. Could have been complacency and not going out to vote the first time. My guess, sorry, my hope is they don’t do it again this time.

 

[soulcougher73]

I've been saying all along that Trump just might win. Take the latest scandal with Trump's dismissal of American war dead, Trump voters will not believe Trump said this. And with journalist who were present confirming that Trump did indeed say this, the journalist are then called liars. And should video or audio recordings come along to prove Trump did say this, Trump supporters would label it faked and manufactured. So..... even if iron clad proof came to light, it wouldn't matter. No matter the proof, it will be denied. Forget about Joe Biden pealing away one single Trump vote or changing the mind of one single Trump supporter, it will not happen. Donald Trump is in charge and that gives Trump a lot of super power. Trump can control the dialog, Trump can implant conspiracy theories, Trump can challenge our institutions i.e. postal system, electoral process, and Donald Trump can accuse Democratic voters as fraudulent and criminal. Republican voters, they are all fine and law abiding while the democrat voter as the corrupt fraudulent voter who's ballot can not be trusted. And... Donald Trump will take that to court, if needed to win.

America is a very sick nation. A pandemic that should unite us instead has divided us. Something as sensible as wearing a face mask has now become political. Donald Trump caused all of this, and pretty much all by himself, so yeah.... Donald Trump just could win the election, again. I'm just saying.

I can actually see where right wingers would be coming from on the war dead thing. As they would just say, if this was such big news why wasn’t it reported back in 2018 when it happened.

I believe it sounds totally like something Trump would say, but the timing of the release draws it into question for righties. So for them it’s easy to dismiss as fakenews.