Turkey Shoots Down Russian Warplane Near Border With Syria

[shady28]

None of which really refutes what I said. Their economy is shrinking and they're torching through their foreign currency reserves. With oil prices in the dumper and sanctions unlikely to be lifted this situation is not going to improve. Cutting off a significant source of hard cash, like Turkey, would essentially be suicide at this point.

Meanwhile in the wold of facts not fiction.

Russia's currency reserves were $7B less on Oct 31 vs Jan 31 2015. Their gold reserves also increased by $1.5B in that time.

At that rate their $320B reserves will last 45 years.

http://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/default.aspx?Prtid=mrrf_m


Russia also has only 17% debt : GDP ratio.

By comparison the USA is 103%, Britain 89%, France 95%.

Russia is currently increasing its GDPebt by 0.5% per year. At that rate it will take them 172 years to get into the predicament the USA is in.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/government-debt-to-gdp

Russian territory also holds 30% of the worlds natural resources, with about 2.5% of the worlds population :

http://www.ems.psu.edu/~williams/russia.htm


64% of Turkey's natural gas comes from Russia (more recent numbers indicate 57%), and 20% from Iran :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_sector#Natural_gas_deliveries

 

[norseamd]

NATO will not go to war because a few Turkish planes acting aggressively get shot down by Russia after they've shot down a Russian plane. There is no political will for it. They will have a stern press release though.

They will if the Russians go and just straight up invade all of Turkey. I doubt they will go to war just because a Turkish airplane got shot down in Syrian airspace. If the Russians shoot down a Turkish airplane in Turkish airspace then you might see American forces, especially anti-air units, deployed to Turkey.

 

[norseamd]

I know that an active shooting war between two nuclear armed opponents is about the scariest thing I can conceive of for the planet.

Of course it is. But the Russians are not going to get to bomb NATO countries themselves willy nilly and not get any retaliation.

 

[norseamd]

Russia's currency reserves were $7B less on Oct 31 vs Jan 31 2015. Their gold reserves also increased by $1.5B in that time.

How much has their GDP contracted however?

 

[shady28]

They will if the Russians go and just straight up invade all of Turkey. I doubt they will go to war just because a Turkish airplane got shot down in Syrian airspace. If the Russians shoot down a Turkish airplane in Turkish airspace then you might see American forces, especially anti-air units, deployed to Turkey.

Russia will not invade Turkey. That's just straight up sensationalism.

They may well shoot down some Turkish aircraft before this is over.

If Russia and Iran were to turn off the gas to Turkey, it would shut down about 1/3 of Turkeys power generation.

This doesn't even address coal, or oil, which are largely sourced from Russia and Iran.

Bottom line is that if a "real" war developed with Turkey vs Russia, the lights would go out in Turkey. And Russia wouldn't have to drop a single bomb.


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/energy-dependence-to-grow-in-turkey.aspx?pageID=238&nid=40585

In 2011, Turkey imported more than 90 percent of its total liquid fuels consumption. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Turkey’s imports are expected to double over the next decade. The majority of Turkey’s oil imports originated in Iran, which supplied about 51 percent of Turkey’s crude oil imports in 2011. Data through September 2012 showed that Iran retained the top spot among suppliers until then, but the imposition of sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports may change this, the report said. While Iraq is the second largest crude oil supplier to Turkey, Russia ranks third.

 

[K1052]

How much has their GDP contracted however?

Everything

Seems

Fine

To

Me

Since late July, the central bank put aside a goal to rebuild overall reserves, of which the rainy-day fund is one part, to avoid exacerbating the ruble’s drop and stoking inflation. International reserves, which also include gold and central bank foreign currency assets, have plunged to $366 billion on Nov. 6 compared with an official target of $500 billion.

Policy makers have no concrete date for resuming dollar purchases, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina told journalists and lawmakers at the State Duma on Friday, saying interventions should be done “carefully.”

The central bank will enter the market to buy foreign currency "only if there is a stable currency market and our purchases are organized in such a way as to minimize the impact on the domestic exchange rate, so as not to intensify trends and not create volatility,” she said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-15/ruble-isn-t-falling-fast-enough-to-save-russia-s-rainy-day-fund

 

[shady28]

How much has their GDP contracted however?

About 10% in the last couple of years, which is why they are running a deficit at all now.

Sanctions have hurt, but their economy is not imploding by any stretch. The 2008-2009 crisis hurt them much worse. They are doing much better now than they were in 2008, even after sanctions.

 

[senseamp]

They will if the Russians go and just straight up invade all of Turkey. I doubt they will go to war just because a Turkish airplane got shot down in Syrian airspace. If the Russians shoot down a Turkish airplane in Turkish airspace then you might see American forces, especially anti-air units, deployed to Turkey.

Russians are not going to invade all of Turkey anyways.
This plane was shot from Turkish airspace, so Russia will shoot Turkish planes even over Turkish airspace if they are acting aggressively towards Russian planes again. S400 can shoot well into Turkey.

 

[Darwin333]

Either that or Turkey is going to go Wild Weasel on that thing, which would really tick Putin off

Off topic: I always loved the motto for the Wild Weasels:

The unofficial motto of the Wild Weasel crews is YGBSM: "You Gotta Be Shittin' Me". This appears prominently on the logo patch of some squadrons. As the story goes, this was the response of Jack Donovan, a former B-52 EWO

This was the natural response of an educated man, a veteran EWO on B-52s and the like, upon learning that he was to fly back seat to a self-absorbed fighter pilot while acting as flypaper for enemy SAMs.

His exact words were: "You want me to fly in the back of a little tiny fighter aircraft with a crazy fighter pilot who thinks he's invincible, home in on a SAM site in North Vietnam, and shoot it before it shoots me, you gotta be shittin' me!"

 

[senseamp]

Russia is not doing well economically, but continued turmoil in the Middle East increases oil prices, so it pays for itself in a sense. Plus Syria being a clusterfvck prevents pipelines from being built to the Mediterranean to compete with Russian oil and gas.

 

[fskimospy]

Meanwhile in the wold of facts not fiction.

Russia's currency reserves were $7B less on Oct 31 vs Jan 31 2015. Their gold reserves also increased by $1.5B in that time.

At that rate their $320B reserves will last 45 years.

http://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/default.aspx?Prtid=mrrf_m

Of course their international reserves were $59 billion lower than they were on 10/31/2014, and $155 billion lower than they were on 10/31/2013. Not sure why you picked January 2015 as a date, but suddenly their reserves don't look so steady, now do they?

Not to mention that the value of the ruble is collapsing again, which means their burn rate is likely to go higher.

Russia also has only 17% debt : GDP ratio.

By comparison the USA is 103%, Britain 89%, France 95%.

Russia is currently increasing its GDPebt by 0.5% per year. At that rate it will take them 172 years to get into the predicament the USA is in.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/government-debt-to-gdp

What's funny is that Russia is already in a much worse economic predicament than the US, and the 10 year rates on those bonds are more than five times what the US pays. One big reason Russia isn't in more debt is that they simply could never afford to be.

Russian territory also holds 30% of the worlds natural resources, with about 2.5% of the worlds population :

http://www.ems.psu.edu/~williams/russia.htm

Not particularly relevant.

64% of Turkey's natural gas comes from Russia (more recent numbers indicate 57%), and 20% from Iran :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_sector#Natural_gas_deliveries

Russia can't afford to play too many more games with natural gas, their economy is already in the shitter and their energy sector is basically the only part that's remotely functional.

Russia's economy has contracted hugely in recent years, and the World Bank projects it to keep contracting next year.

 

[Magic Carpet]

Not to mention that the value of the ruble is collapsing again, which means their burn rate is likely to go higher.

Don't forget that all natural gas/oil contracts happen in US dollars, so there is plenty of rubles available for the state budget and they can always print some more. Cheap local currency is good for exports. Of course, this is still not healthy for the economy as the buying power of the ruble gets effectively reduced. But it's not as bad as some analysts have predicted a couple of years ago.

 

[AtenRa]

​

Turkmen says his forces killed two Russian pilots

​

The "Turkmen" commander Alparslan Çelik who shot at the Russian pilots is a Turkish citizen and Grey Wolves member.

​

Well, if true this is getting interesting.

​

 

[Brian Stirling]

Why would they? Russia has consistently tested NATO and they got burned. That's what you get.

It's bad news overall for international action in Syria, but Russia should have thought about that sooner.

Yeah, Russia has been pushing things for years now and the west hasn't had much of an answer for them without a serious risk of horrific escalation. In this case, however, we have a NATO ally who's really sitting at the kids table and they gave it back to Russia. Russia can't extrapolate this into a larger conflict with the west as a whole and the only threat is if they decide to wage full on war with Turkey -- a member of NATO.

This is not to say that this event was a good thing, but if Russia resists the childish tendency to retaliate this could wind up being a net good thing.


Brian

 

[K1052]

Russia is not doing well economically, but continued turmoil in the Middle East increases oil prices, so it pays for itself in a sense. Plus Syria being a clusterfvck prevents pipelines from being built to the Mediterranean to compete with Russian oil and gas.

It will cause a little volatility but definitely not the kind of price increase that would boost Russian revenues by any substantial amount. There is a huge supply glut in the market and this conflict isn't doing anything appreciable to limit it.

 

[senseamp]

Turkey is a state sponsor of terrorism. The "moderate" rebels armed by the US and covered for by Turkey are actually Al-Nusra Front which is the local Al-Qaeda affiliate. Long term supporting these radicals will work out about as well for Turkey as it worked out for Pakistan.

 

[fskimospy]

Don't forget that all natural gas/oil contracts happen in US dollars, so there is plenty of rubles available for the state budget and they can always print some more. Cheap local currency is good for exports. Of course, this is still not healthy for the economy as the buying power of the ruble gets effectively reduced. But it's not as bad as some analysts have predicted a couple of years ago.

Don't forget that the debts of their companies are also denominated in foreign currencies, which is forcing the Russian government to prop them up to avoid collapse.

A weaker currency is good for exports, yes, but outside of the energy industry Russian exports aren't very competitive regardless.

 

[Magic Carpet]

@AtenRa

Cheap talk so far.

 

[Darwin333]

NATO will not go to war because a few Turkish planes acting aggressively get shot down by Russia after they've shot down a Russian plane. There is no political will for it. They will have a stern press release though.

What if Russia lobbed a few cruise missiles or bombs into Turkey? How much of an escalation does everyone think it would require for NATO to get involved?

Personally I think it would have to get pretty damn bad before NATO got involved militarily.

 

[Darwin333]

I know that an active shooting war between two nuclear armed opponents is about the scariest thing I can conceive of for the planet.

I we were to get into a shooting war with anyone that had nukes, Russia and China would probably be the safest bet. Neither will use them because their leaders are at least semi-sane and they understand the MAD doctrine quite well.

It's the people that don't give a fuck about dying or their nation being wiped off the map we need to be concerned with.

 

[fskimospy]

What if Russia lobbed a few cruise missiles or bombs into Turkey? How much of an escalation does everyone think it would require for NATO to get involved?

Personally I think it would have to get pretty damn bad before NATO got involved militarily.

Well it's all proportional. If Russia shot some cruise missiles or bombed Turkey NATO would probably move aircraft and air defenses into Turkey and start shooting down anything Russian that came into Turkish airspace.

 

[maddogchen]

Well it's all proportional. If Russia shot some cruise missiles or bombed Turkey NATO would probably move aircraft and air defenses into Turkey and start shooting down anything Russian that came into Turkish airspace.

NATO already has aircraft and air defenses in Turkey.

 

[fskimospy]

NATO already has aircraft and air defenses in Turkey.

Of course we do, but we would have more and they would be more active.

 

[senseamp]

What if Russia lobbed a few cruise missiles or bombs into Turkey? How much of an escalation does everyone think it would require for NATO to get involved?

Personally I think it would have to get pretty damn bad before NATO got involved militarily.

It's a political question for NATO countries. If Turkey starts some shit and gets hit back hard, they can decide if they want to start a war with Russia and take the associated risks over it, or tell Turkey to stop acting like an idiot.

 

[Blackjack200]

Well it's all proportional. If Russia shot some cruise missiles or bombed Turkey NATO would probably move aircraft and air defenses into Turkey and start shooting down anything Russian that came into Turkish airspace.

The most plausible escalation I can see is Su-27s escorting the Su-24s and "straying" into Turkish airspace.