One big reason Russia isn't in more debt is that they simply could never afford to be.
Russia can't afford to play too many more games with natural gas, their economy is already in the shitter and their energy sector is basically the only part that's remotely functional.
Russia's economy has contracted hugely in recent years, and the World Bank projects it to keep contracting next year.
What if Russia lobbed a few cruise missiles or bombs into Turkey? How much of an escalation does everyone think it would require for NATO to get involved?
Personally I think it would have to get pretty damn bad before NATO got involved militarily.
Russia will do nothing but talk a whole lot. They are not going to escalate the situation.
The most plausible escalation I can see is Su-27s escorting the Su-24s and "straying" into Turkish airspace.
I don't think Russia will attack Turkey in retaliation for what already happened. They will bomb Turkish allies in Syria and make Turkey watch. But Russia will shoot down Turkish jets if they threaten Russian planes again, from either side of the border.
I think either country is willing to shoot down aircraft that straw into their own territory. The question is how are the Turks going to respond if the Russians shoot down a Turkish aircraft inside Turkish airspace, but close to Russian aircraft.
And that is dangerous because it goes right on the borderline, depending on how far they stray into Turkish airspace, and if they engage any targets. Of course given how everything has turned out so far, if they did that, it seems the Turks are more than willing to open fire on Russian aircraft. How the Russians respond to that would determine how much this conflict would escalate. And also not knowing the deep details, but from what I understand, Western aircraft have much nicer avionics than Russian aircraft, while Russian aircraft are very agile dogfighters. However Western aircraft are probably going to win because they seem to have notably more powerful BVR capabilities.
If you are a Russian fighter escort pilot and a Turkish F-16 starts painting you from Turkey, after what has happened, you aren't going to call Putin and ask what to do.
I highly doubt there will be any BVR engagements.
But just to add that the SU-27/30/33/35 has better BVR capabilities against the F-16. The SU-27/30/33/35 has longer radar target acquisition, higher air speed and higher operational altitude. Also it can carry the long range BVR missile (K-77M) that its operational range is higher than the AIM-120 AMRAAM the F-16 carries.
The SU-27 and its family was designed as an AIR Superiority Fighter to engage the F-15, the F-16 is inferior in every way and has no hope against it in BVR.
True, but what about Turkish and Russian aircraft just being around each other, like passive shadowing? If the Russians are going to keep flying close to the Turkish border, then the Turks are probably going to start flying their aircraft close to the border also, as a defensive precaution.
The F-16 is to the Mig-29, as the Su-27 is to the F-15.
Although these are also Turkish F-16s, so no idea if they are getting AESA upgrades like the American F-16s.
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[/LEFT]The "Turkmen" commander Alparslan Çelik who shot at the Russian pilots is a Turkish citizen and Grey Wolves member.Well, if true this is getting interesting.
Depends on how Turkey acts.
I don't think Russia will attack Turkey in retaliation for what already happened. They will bomb Turkish allies in Syria and make Turkey watch. But Russia will shoot down Turkish jets if they threaten Russian planes again, from either side of the border.
no AESA
Based on their actions and words, Russia will continue to fly sorties close to Turkish border, and they will have fighter jet escorts and S400 SAM coverage.
From these two facts, it is not going to be a game of Risk where the big guys decide what happens. Things can just happen.
If you are a Russian fighter escort pilot and a Turkish F-16 starts painting you from Turkey, after what has happened, you aren't going to call Putin and ask what to do.
Russia will very likely have S-400 coverage FURTHER SOUTH, but not likely to move them so close to the Turkish border. If the Turkmen can splash a Hind with a TOW they can also splash an S-400 with a TOW. Frankly, getting close to Turkey with such hardware leaves Russia open to the Turks pretending to be Turkmen destroying expensive Russian kit.
Brian
Looks like the K-77M is an AESA AAM. Ouch. Japan has been researching AESA missiles, but no models in service yet. I have been promoting the idea of adding an AESA radar to the Meteor missiles for some time now, and for America to procure it. Still America has not rolled out any models of AESA AAM missiles yet. That said it looks like the AIM-120D AMRAAM does outrange the R-77, although I was not able to find a range for the K-77M.
Still not finding any information that the K-77M can be carried by anything but the PAK-FA so far.
The radius range is up to 400 km (250 miles) depending on what missile is used and has about 60 km ceiling. The Russians would be able to control the whole Syrian airspace along with the southern parts of Turkey. Quite capable stuff.S-400 is going to be at their base on the coast. Range is 100+ miles though, so it hardly matter.
The range is up to 250 miles depending on what missile is used.