Turkey Shoots Down Russian Warplane Near Border With Syria

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norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
Does Merkel still want Turkey in the EU? What a disaster for Europe that lady has turned out to be.

That is not possible anymore, at least not until Erdogan is gone forever. The EU has some major human rights and political accountability requirements. There has not been any major talk of letting Turkey into the EU anymore in the last few years that I am aware of at all.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,591
7,652
136
No, but she needs Turkey to control the refugee traffic. The bigger EU countries aren't exactly happy with recent Erdogan's actions.

Great, so when is Merkel and company going to tell Turkey to stop supplying ISIS? To stop attacking the Syrian, Kurd and Russian forces that are trying to restore order and (as a consequence) end ISIS.

Because it seems to me that, by their own actions, Turkey is doing much to be a state sponsor of ISIS terror.

 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
What's the net effect of Turkey's action? They wanted to scare Russians out of the Syrian airspace, but instead have given Russia the justification for setting up an effective no fly zone over Syrian areas of Russian interest. Russia can now legitimately treat any uncoordinated entry into the Syrian air space, especially by Turkey, as a threat to Russian forces. Effectively, Syrian skies are closed to Turkey, whereas Russia can provide close air support to Assad's forces in rebel held territories, and can use the revenge for the shot pilot as a justification.
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
Great, so when is Merkel and company going to tell Turkey to stop supplying ISIS? To stop attacking the Syrian, Kurd and Russian forces that are trying to restore order and (as a consequence) end ISIS.

You forgot the Iraqis, Jordanians, and Iranians.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,982
3,318
126
What's the net effect of Turkey's action? They wanted to scare Russians out of the Syrian airspace, but instead have given Russia the justification for setting up an effective no fly zone over Syrian areas of Russian interest. Russia can now legitimately treat any uncoordinated entry into the Syrian air space, especially by Turkey, as a threat to Russian forces. Effectively, Syrian skies are closed to Turkey, whereas Russia can provide close air support to Assad's forces in rebel held territories, and can use the revenge for the shot pilot as a justification.
Just to put what you are claiming into perspective.....Israel has time and time again invaded Syrian skies without Russia`s permission! Russia does not have the technology to enforce a no fly zone!
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
Also let us remember that the Jordanians have volunteered to invade ISIS, but neither Syria or Iraq have agreed to let them. Everyone talks about how we need to let the Middle Eastern countries step up, and how they are not doing any of that, but one country has been willing for a long time now, but the 2 countries that have been invaded and defiled by ISIS have refused to let the Jordanians actually fight ISIS on the ground.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,982
3,318
126
No matter what they have, and im telling you i know very well what they have, they are not a match for the Russians.
Dream much?? The Russians are a shell of there former self and everything being equal the turks would win!

Now you let Russia mass troops and such using bovver whelming odds they might win....
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
30,989
8,701
136
The stakes are too high for TR or RU to start World War III. Expect tough words and sanctions and vacation boycotts at most.

Btw, how do you like this hypocrisy--Erdogan flying into a rage because a Turkish jet strayed into Syria briefly, offering Syria pretext for shooting it down: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...pace-violation-does-not-justify-a6748146.html

Erdogan, for those who don't know, is the de facto leader of Turkey no matter what his official title is, similar to Putin's place in Russia. Erdogan has ignored the Turkish Constitution at will, such as being a blatantly partisan President (unconstitutional under their system). He also wanted to amend the Turkish Constitution to give himself greater power after he stepped down from PM to President. He's basically a Islamist wannabe-Putin who has said such gems as how Muslims discovered America:
http://www.vocativ.com/world/turkey-world/president-tayyip-erdogan-quotes/
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/18/erdogan-ridicule-muslims-discovered-america

Also see (Erdogan is paranoid, sees enemies everywhere inside and outside of the state which is why he jails journalists at the drop of a hat and personally sues everyone who even thinks of insulting him for libel (including a 16 year old boy), bans social media, sees himself as the leader of the Middle East even though Turkey has alienated most of its neighbors by now):
http://news.yahoo.com/cockroaches-made-want-palace-says-turkeys-erdogan-150049344.html
http://www.newsweek.com/sultan-erdogan-conquers-istanbul-338365
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/er...-show.aspx?pageID=238&nID=76853&NewsCatID=510
http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/04/turkey-global-erdogan-islam-opinions-columnists-melik-kaylan.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32302697
http://www.theverge.com/2015/11/14/9734910/turkey-reddit-internet-ban
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...s-access-to-Facebook-Twitter-and-YouTube.html

If you had any doubt that Erdogan sent weapons to unsavory groups in Syria, including the predecessor to Daesh:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/21/us-mideast-crisis-turkey-arms-idUSKBN0O61L220150521
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=dc0_1444058967
http://www.todayszaman.com/national...im-mi-t-transported-arms-to-syria_405283.html

He's also corrupt as fuck, personally enriching his family:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_corruption_scandal_in_Turkey

And he and his mobsters discussed a false flag attack to "justify" attacking Syria:
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/turkey-you...onversation-between-erdogan-officials-1442161

Erdogan has implied in the past that he doesn't like democracy and sees it as a stepping stone, Hitler-style (remember, Hitler was voted into power), in order to create a new Caliphate for the Muslim world. Totally delusional. Putin may be an asshole sometimes (see, e.g., Ukraine, shooting down all those Dutch airline passengers indirectly), but at least he isn't clinically insane like Erdogan.

Replace "caliphate" with USSR and it sounds like Putin TBH.
What's the net effect of Turkey's action? They wanted to scare Russians out of the Syrian airspace, but instead have given Russia the justification for setting up an effective no fly zone over Syrian areas of Russian interest. Russia can now legitimately treat any uncoordinated entry into the Syrian air space, especially by Turkey, as a threat to Russian forces. Effectively, Syrian skies are closed to Turkey, whereas Russia can provide close air support to Assad's forces in rebel held territories, and can use the revenge for the shot pilot as a justification.
So like it was before then? Turkey and Syria have been downing each others jets for years.
 

gururu2

Senior member
Oct 14, 2007
686
1
81
What's the net effect of Turkey's action? They wanted to scare Russians out of the Syrian airspace, but instead have given Russia the justification for setting up an effective no fly zone over Syrian areas of Russian interest. Russia can now legitimately treat any uncoordinated entry into the Syrian air space, especially by Turkey, as a threat to Russian forces. Effectively, Syrian skies are closed to Turkey, whereas Russia can provide close air support to Assad's forces in rebel held territories, and can use the revenge for the shot pilot as a justification.

I support this, although it should have been enough for Syria to establish the no-fly zone as they are a sovereign country being bombed (ISIS, rebels, military, etc) by a dozen nations without approval. Let Russia enforce this and let them clean the country of rebels and ISIS if they can.
 

Brian Stirling

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2010
4,000
2
0
Just to put what you are claiming into perspective.....Israel has time and time again invaded Syrian skies without Russia`s permission! Russia does not have the technology to enforce a no fly zone!


While I'm by no means all that impressed by Russia technology I'd not want to be on the receiving end of a SAM fired from an S-400 at close/near range. If this becomes a SHTF situation then the S-400 system(s) will be destroyed pretty quickly, but lets hope this does not become a SHTF situation. Almost every plausible scenario for the start of WWIII begins in that region of the world.

It will be interesting to see how both Russia and Turkey act in the next few weeks. It will also be interesting to see what happens to the sortie rate for France and the USA in the next few weeks -- I'm guessing the rate drops.

Bad shit can happen when so many folks are in close proximity when they're all friends, when they're not all friends ...


Brian
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
It will be interesting to see how both Russia and Turkey act in the next few weeks. It will also be interesting to see what happens to the sortie rate for France and the USA in the next few weeks -- I'm guessing the rate drops.

From what I know, the Americans are mostly operating in Northeast Syria, which is the exact opposite side of Syria from where the Russians are operating. I can see the current sortie rate staying the same or even increasing.
 

dawheat

Diamond Member
Sep 14, 2000
3,132
93
91
I highly doubt there will be any BVR engagements.

But just to add that the SU-27/30/33/35 has better BVR capabilities against the F-16. The SU-27/30/33/35 has longer radar target acquisition, higher air speed and higher operational altitude. Also it can carry the long range BVR missile (K-77M) that its operational range is higher than the AIM-120 AMRAAM the F-16 carries.

The SU-27 and its family was designed as an AIR Superiority Fighter to engage the F-15, the F-16 is inferior in every way and has no hope against it in BVR.

Sure in a paper engagement over neutral territory that might be true. This scenario is where all aircraft are well within range of each other on Turkey's border where their other assets are available (AWACS, EW, SAMs, etc). This is no slam dunk for either side.
 

shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
Having an Su-24 shot down by an F-16 has about as much significance as an A-10 Warthog being shot down by an Mig-29.

Kinda funny seeing people talk about F-16s taking down SU-30SM models.

Hint : It's not 1995 anymore.

WVR (Within Visual Range) the Indian variant SU-30MKI defeated Typhoons - these are dogfights - 12 to 0. The Typhoon entered service in 2003 with NATO and is a far superior aircraft to the F-16, which is now a 40 year old platform.


Source :


"NEW DELHI: In some of the most intense international air combat exercises ever featuring the Indian Air Force, IAF pilots flying Sukhoi Su-30 MKI fighters had a resounding 12-0 scoreline in their favour against Royal Air Force Typhoon jets in Within Visual Range (WVR) dogfighting operations.

And in BVR (Beyond Visual Range) it was closer, but still a win for the Su-30MKI :

In subsequent Large Force Exercises (LFE) which featured combined Eurofighter Typhoon and Su-30 formations, the IAF jets were somewhat less successful but consistently held an edge over the Typhoon.
...
The Large Force Engagements saw 4 v 4 engagements at beyond visual range and graduated to a massive 8 v 8 engagement featuring 16 aircraft in the skies near Coningsby.


Turkey doesn't have a stellar history with their F-16D fighters :

On 8 February 1995, a Turkish F-16 crashed into the Aegean after being intercepted by Greek Mirage F1 fighters.[114][115]
On 8 October 1996, 7 months after the escalation over Imia a Greek Mirage 2000 reportedly fired an R.550 Magic II missile and shot down a Turkish F-16D[116][117] over the Aegean Sea. The Turkish pilot died, while the co-pilot ejected and was rescued by Greek forces.[113][118][119] In August 2012, after the downing of a RF-4E on the Syrian Coast, Turkish Defence Minister İsmet Yılmaz confirmed that the Turkish F-16D was shot down by a Greek Mirage 2000 with an R.550 Magic II in 1996 after violating Greek airspace near Chios island.[120]

On 23 May 2006, two Greek F-16s intercepted a Turkish RF-4 reconnaissance aircraft and two F-16 escorts off the coast of the Greek island of Karpathos, within the Athens FIR. A mock dogfight ensued between the two sides, resulting in a midair collision[121] between a Turkish F-16 and a Greek F-16. The Turkish pilot ejected safely, but the Greek pilot died due to damage caused by the collision.[122][123]


Russia flies a superior Su-30'SM' variant. It is an upgrade to the Su-30 that entered service in 1996.

Russia doesn't have many of these aircraft though, 39 total of the SM version.

At least four are in Syria.

The only aircraft that is a clear threat to the su-30SM is the F-22 and possibly the F-35. Turkey does not have the F-22, only the USA has that.
 

Brian Stirling

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2010
4,000
2
0
Having an Su-24 shot down by an F-16 has about as much significance as an A-10 Warthog being shot down by an Mig-29.

Kinda funny seeing people talk about F-16s taking down SU-30SM models.

Hint : It's not 1995 anymore.

WVR (Within Visual Range) the Indian variant SU-30MKI defeated Typhoons - these are dogfights - 12 to 0. The Typhoon entered service in 2003 with NATO and is a far superior aircraft to the F-16, which is now a 40 year old platform.


Source :




And in BVR (Beyond Visual Range) it was closer, but still a win for the Su-30MKI :




Turkey doesn't have a stellar history with their F-16D fighters :




Russia flies a superior Su-30'SM' variant. It is an upgrade to the Su-30 that entered service in 1996.

Russia doesn't have many of these aircraft though, 39 total of the SM version.

At least four are in Syria.

The only aircraft that is a clear threat to the su-30SM is the F-22 and possibly the F-35. Turkey does not have the F-22, only the USA has that.

When Russia aircraft are flying close to Turkish airspace they are confronted not only with Turkish aircraft but also SAM threats. Not sure what Turkey's SAM inventory is, but at close range any aircraft is in danger from a capable SAM system.

The latter Sukhoi fighters are very good aircraft, but the AMRAAM is a very capable missile that would make life difficult for Russia. Russian aircraft are optimized for dog fighting while western doctrine favors BVR engagements. I'm not so sure the SU-30 would win against an F-16 firing an AMRAAM. With Turkey fighting from home ground while Russia is the away team Turkey would have the advantage in numbers and proximity.

One thing I'm quite worried about is long range shots that could reach pretty deep into opposing territory. A SAM fired from Latakia at a Turkish F-16 might wind up 10's of miles deep into Turkey and similarly, an AMRAAM fired at a Russian plane in Turkish territory might travel 10's of miles into Syria before blowing the Russian plane out of the sky. Engagements that begin one place don't necessarily end there.

But again, lets hope they decide to grow up and avoid situations that could escalate into something globally threatening.


Brian
 

shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
When Russia aircraft are flying close to Turkish airspace they are confronted not only with Turkish aircraft but also SAM threats. Not sure what Turkey's SAM inventory is, but at close range any aircraft is in danger from a capable SAM system.

The latter Sukhoi fighters are very good aircraft, but the AMRAAM is a very capable missile that would make life difficult for Russia. Russian aircraft are optimized for dog fighting while western doctrine favors BVR engagements. I'm not so sure the SU-30 would win against an F-16 firing an AMRAAM. With Turkey fighting from home ground while Russia is the away team Turkey would have the advantage in numbers and proximity.

One thing I'm quite worried about is long range shots that could reach pretty deep into opposing territory. A SAM fired from Latakia at a Turkish F-16 might wind up 10's of miles deep into Turkey and similarly, an AMRAAM fired at a Russian plane in Turkish territory might travel 10's of miles into Syria before blowing the Russian plane out of the sky. Engagements that begin one place don't necessarily end there.

But again, lets hope they decide to grow up and avoid situations that could escalate into something globally threatening.


Brian



The longest range SAM I could find that Turkey has is the Hawk, which has its origins in the 1960s. Its range is only 45-50km, and it's very slow (Mach 2.5). Entirely possible an SU-30 could outrun / outrange it. The missiles in the S-400 move at Mach 14 (11,000 MPH or just over 3 miles / second) and have a range over 250km.

The only other SAMs they have are Stingers and Rapiers (Rapier is short range ~1.5 mile, introduced in 1971). Which explains why they shot the Su-24 down by an F-16 and not a SAM.

They do have the AMRAAM, but their best is the 120C variant with a range of 105km / 57 mi. The D variant (which they don't have) is the 97mi range one.

The Russian R-77-1 and K-77 outrange all but the 120C.

Basically what Russia can and has fielded outclasses what Turkey has. Unless someone drops some 3rd gen Patriots and 120D AMRAAMs on Turkey, which given how reckless Erdogan has proven himself to be is quite unlikely, Russia owns the skies in that area.


Source
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Just to put what you are claiming into perspective.....Israel has time and time again invaded Syrian skies without Russia`s permission! Russia does not have the technology to enforce a no fly zone!

You can fly in Syria until an S400 missile hits you.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,982
3,318
126
I highly doubt there will be any BVR engagements.

But just to add that the SU-27/30/33/35 has better BVR capabilities against the F-16. The SU-27/30/33/35 has longer radar target acquisition, higher air speed and higher operational altitude. Also it can carry the long range BVR missile (K-77M) that its operational range is higher than the AIM-120 AMRAAM the F-16 carries.

The SU-27 and its family was designed as an AIR Superiority Fighter to engage the F-15, the F-16 is inferior in every way and has no hope against it in BVR.
Your opinion is not a majority opinion! In fact your opinion is based on what? Textbook facts?
Which really are not facts at all when nit comes to real world application!
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
That depends. Are we talking about a F-16A or a F-16IN?

Even the Greek F-16 Block 52+ Adv will be inferior to the SU-30SM in BVR.
In a Dogfight however with JHMCS and Iris-T missile the F-16 Block 52+ Adv will be a good match.
 
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